StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

I can easily argue that everyone who spent time and time and time trying to prove that Obama was a Muslim or Michelle Obama said “whitey” or any one of the other byte vacuums, instead of actually studying Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience will be as much to blame for the result if Obama wins, as McCain is (or was) for allowing himself to get painted into the corner to be blamed for the financial mess that is President Bush’s alone (and his Adminstration) or for allowing Obama to make the statement that he made about “invading a country that hadn’t been involved in 9/11.”

The lack of critical thinking instead of school yard name calling and its associated mentality will be responsible if the worst case scenario plays out.

Each and every one you who wasted time worrying about “Barry’s name” will be to blame. The freakin’ illuminati of the conservative far right, deep in their lack of knowledge of world affairs, policy issues, and the like, fell quickly into the trap of focusing on the non-issues long before Obama took the nomination away from Senator Clinton. That too was a result of distracting people unable to think for themselves away from the real issues of leadership and experience. Those people who today bemoan the possibility that Obama will win the election, would have cried loudly had Mrs. Clinton been the Democratic nominee. Then, those who lack the depth of knowledge needed to actually make considered decisions based on critical thinking, would have gone back in the “way back machine” to 1992 and re-characterized Mrs. Clinton’s health care plan. So, we now face the prospect of not only having a President without experience becomes our President for at least the next four years.

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Despite the relative calm and void of terrorist attacks on US soil, we are nonetheless a Nation at war. We all must remain vigilent and report anything, as a DHS agent said in a recent presentation that I attended, that “Doesn’t Look Right.” I some circles, a rumor of an attack on October 7 2008 had been spread. The concern is that the source of the initial analysis that was flawed, not that bloggers became the conduit of mis-information.

To think that a self-proclaimed homeland security expert (see this older post from Debbie Schlussel titled, UH-OH! Northeast “Intelligence” Network Steps In It: Fake “Terrorism Expert” Douglas Hagmann Admits Plagiarism, Fabricated Info), a “font of information” with a lack of credibility, and yet a large following (notably among only those who refuse to accept the fact that the National Intelligence Network - or NIN - and its self-proclaimed “experts” are not experts at all) actually knows more than any of our law enforcement agencies (DHS, FBI, NSA etc.) or know more than excessively credible counterterrorism websites and sources of information (one among the many being the Counterterrorism Blog), is what makes the “chicken little/sky is falling” hurricane of words, and bits and bytes, more distrubing. Ask the intelligent question, rather than relying on an unreliable source like NIN. Would none of these credible sources have written something to alert the citizenry if this supposed threat had any merit?

Of course, the argument will always be, “better right than sorry,” or “don’t worry about or be embarrassed for being wrong.” That’s all true. The problem is the source of the information, not the intention of the bloggers who spread the illicit rumor.

In my opinion, spreading an unsubstantiated rumor from a less than credible source, is exactly what the terrorists want. The more often the populace is in any way alerted to an impending terrorist attack, the more desensitized the populace will become, and the less likely they are as a broad population to be ready to respond and react when the real terrorist alert comes. Since I am passed the point of caring, the simple point is that bloggers who choose to spread information from less than credible sources, then “bicycle the blog articles around to other bloggers” do this country a huge disservice. I’m not calling these citizen journalists anything like “unpatriotic.” Quite the opposite, they are doing what they feel is the right and patriotic thing to do (albeit perhaps they are quite naive). But in spreading misinformation and bad intelligence from a less than “intelligent” source, they are not serving the public good. Thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands people, walked around the last few weeks thinking that we were going to be attacked yesterday, and yet, we were not attacked.

In my entire circle of friends and associates, many of whom are in the business of counterterrorism and law enforcement and national security, none ever even mentioned the rumored attacks of October 7th, 2008. That is not to say that another attack on US soil is not coming. Someday, regettably, I believe that we will be attacked, and perhaps that attack will happen sooner than later. Perhaps, even, that attack will come from within, from a US based terrorist group, maybe not even one connected to the jihad.

One thing is certain to me (and I care not about any flack I might take for writing this entry or for what I am about to say).

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

October 7, terrorism

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Now I’ve seen everything, and if you bother to spend your time looking at this embedded video, you too, will say, “wow, I can’t believe that people believe this stuff.”

Since its conception in the late 1990’s, the Web Bot Project has made a number of very accurate and insightful predictions regarding coming events. Originally designed to track stock market trends, the Web Bot uses a system of spider that crawl the Internet looking for patterns of behavior, trends and chatter pertaining to coming events. This tool is believed to be able to forecast the future by tapping into the collective unconscious of society.

Foresees a West Coast/Vancouver area large scale earthquake around December 12, 2008.

Will there be a September 11th scale attack on the U.S. next week as predicted? One thing is for sure, “tinfoil” or not, you can’t stop people from believing what they want to believe.

Stay safe, stay secure and keep that roll of duct tape handy.

October 7, Web Bot Project

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Anyone who reads this space knows that I’ve frequently made predictions. Those among you also know that at the predicted time, it is time to step back, reflect and recognize the validity of those predictions. On December 26, 2007 Austin Bay wrote, “Sometime within the next six months or so, al Qaeda or Saddamist terrorists will attempt a Tet offensive.” The article urged readers to believe that the jihadists sought to emulate the strategic political effects North Vietnam’s 1968 attack obtained.

Mr. Bay then went to draw an historic parallel between the peacewing of the Democratic party during the Civil War led by Clement Vallandigham to Senator Harry Reid (who Bay called “our era’s Vallandighams”). And further, Mr. Bay predicted that:

Their “ultimate Iraqi Tet” would feature simultaneous terror strikes in every major Iraqi city. These simultaneous strikes would inflict hideous civilian casualties with the goal of discrediting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s and General David Petraeus’ assessments that Iraqi internal security has improved. The terrorists would reduce Iraqi government buildings to rubble.

Well, I don’t want to be proven wrong by near term events, but given the “effectiveness” of the surge. there is reason to expect that no Iraqi Tet will occur (too soon at least). Of course, Bay bought himself a bit of leeway by then saying that the Election period in November would give al Qaeda, the jihad, the Islamic Fundamentalists etc. the opportunity to inflict “sensational carnage that even momentarily seeds the perception of defeat is their only chance of victory.”

But I’ll bet that Bay got his 10 votes within minutes…LOL And yes, I’ve had this article bookmarked since it first appeared simply to see if the bold prediction played out in reality.

Austin Bay, Terrorists Tet

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Based on an admittedly a small sample, strolling around the Internet the last few days a few bloggers’ predictions are at once amusing, distressing, unsettling a misdirected. One is that next week an organization named “Grassfire” is petitioning Congress to uphold 2 bills that haven’t had any action since February 2008 (H.R. 4987-Fence By Date Certain Act-Jones R-NC and H.R. 5124-Reinstatement of the Secure Fence Act of 2008-Hunter R-CA). They may petition Congress, they may have a chance to get someone to pay attention to their plea to build the border fence, but they are also ignoring P-28. And by the way, since one of “their” objectives is to overturn the Hutchison Amendment, here is the Senator’s response to the mistaken characterization of her position: Senator Hutchison’s Border Amendment: Myth V. Fact.

Another one spreading like wildfire is the one about Michelle Obama’s “whitey” tape. This one is being spread by Larry Johnson. The other day, he said that he had a tape and was going to produce it on June 2. Well, today, he claims that it exists, but that the RNC is withholding it to use it in the Fall, rather than defuse the Obama win now, and possibly give the nomination to Hillary Clinton.

Another rumor is that a blitherbus named Larry Sinclair was going to blow the top off of Obama’s campaign by announcing a drug scandal (this “guy” is also now alleging that Obama and Rev. Wright were involved in the murder of Donald Young). The real problem is that way too many people believe this shit.

Finally, there is a “revelation” by a group of right-headed conservo-freaks that Hillary will not accept the Vice Presidential nomination. Frankly, I don’t know that she will or won’t take the second seat on the Obama Express (to no where near the White House, I believe). Personally, I believe that Senator Clinton can not only serve the Nation better remaining the Senator from New York State and maybe even assuming the position of Senator Majority Leader or increasing her seniority on the Senate Armed Services Committee. For sure, however, my own prediction stands (and has now been confirmed): Senator Clinton will not run for President (I’m still not even sure that she will win the Democratic nomination, but this is still over a year away). This prediction was posted in December 2006.

That there is pervasive ignorance in the World is not a suprise. What is truly amazing is the pedestal that the Internet has given some very mediocre thinkers and brought so much of it to the surface. Even more disturbing however, is how so many people follow these others, and validate the mediocrity.

CLinton, Larry Johnson, Larry Sinclair, McCain, Obama, predictions, whitey tape

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UPDATE: There is now apparently a denial by Hagee that he didn’t really say what prompted John McCain to disavow Hagee. I haven’t seen it in print, and I only caught the tail end of the broadcast of the statement on the radio. In typical fashion, the self-professed talk radio host here has automatically taken Hagee’s denial as a statement of fact (”because Pastor Hagee said…”). I’ll see what I can find on this, and then perhaps we will learn the truth. Known by “some” as the “pig farmer,” here is a link to the Windows Movie File of his statement this afternoon. Having listened to the statement, I see no reason to accept out of hand this man’s statement (and that he appeared with a kippah-wearing beared Rabbi makes this even more amusing). Why should I accept this statement??? Because? Come’on Joe, you can do better than that! (Ooops, no you can’t!).

“Let me be clear,” he said. “To assert that I, in any way, condone the Holocaust or that monster Adolf Hitler, is the most vicious of lies.”

And not a moment too soon! Whether or how much this will affect McCain’s attempt to win the White House remains to be seen…but, Pastor John Hagee has finally been unmasked for what he is…a sorrowfully misinformed, dangerous zealot! While I am not in any way intending to be disrespectful of anyone’s religious beliefs, I believe that it is essential to understand the thinking of a person like John Hagee. I am appalled by Hagee’s beliefs. I am afraid of those who believe in him, and equally fearful of their collective “wisdom” that somehow, the prophecies are played out only if Israel continues to exist. IMPORTANT UPDATE SHOWN BELOW.

Sen. John McCain on Thursday repudiated the presidential endorsement of the Rev. John Hagee after learning about a sermon in which the megachurch pastor from San Antonio declared that God allowed the rise of Adolf Hitler because it resulted in returning Israel to the Jewish people.

It is, of course, troublesome that McCain almost stumbled over his own feet when he realized how important it might be to his chances of winning the Presidency that he have the support of the Evangelical right. Hagee became that support. A mistake for sure. I have always wondered of the evangelical support of Israel until I counselled with a well educated (especially in matters religious)…with that understanding (a deeply religious education), I learned that there are some who believe that the Messiah will return, only to Israel, and at that point, Jewish people will convert to Christianity. It is also apparent that “the return” also signals the onset of the “end of days” (or “Rapture”)…essentially the obliteration of Earth. You don’t have to accept my view on this subject as you might also read this explanation: Hagee`s apocalyptic support of Israel. Indeed!

Hagee’s predictions are very clear. Armageddon, the final battle, could begin, he wrote in his 2007 book “Jerusalem Countdown,” “before this book gets published.”

The Antichrist “will be the head of the European Union,” he writes.

Using geographical calculations based on the Book of Revelation, he writes that Israel will be covered in “a sea of human blood” in the final battle.

The Jews, however, will survive the battle, Hagee says, long enough to have “the opportunity to receive Messiah, who is a rabbi known to the world as Jesus of Nazareth.”

However, to be somewhat “fair” and somewhat “balanced” here is another view from another Reform Jewish Rabbi, David Saperstein writing about Hagee’s Jewish Endorsers.

Other Storm posts referencing Hagee:
Keeping Religion Out of Foreign Policy
Syria Demands Golan Heights Withdrawal

Also see a letter from Rabbi Eric H. Yoffie is the President of the Union for Reform Judaism, the congregational arm of the Reform Jewish Movement in North America here. Further, while I do not know of the validity of this website, imagine the meaning of the words, Israel is the key to all end-time prophecy, found at Rapture Ready.

Indeed, although McCain praised Hagee’s stance on Israel, he doesn’t appear to share it. Hagee has written that Israel’s plan to give up the West Bank and Gaza — a two-state solution backed by President Bush and Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, as well as McCain — “violates the word of God.”

“McCain can say he’s a great friend of Israel, but he clearly doesn’t understand Hagee’s position on Israel,” said Ira Forman, the executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council, a partisan group. “Hagee’s opposed to McCain’s own policy — he opposes the peace process.”

What I have written is not in any way intended to be disrespectful of anyone’s religious beliefs. But I also believe that it is essential to understand the thinking of a person like John Hagee. However, beware those whose motives are not apparent. Hagee supports Israel…not the Jewish people.

Does the World end on Dec. 21, 2012 as predicted by the Mayan Calendar (that has no provision for December 22, 2012)?

UPDATE: In following up on my friend, American Phoenix’ reference that Hageee “must be a pre-millennialist” (by the way AP, your link doesn’t work because the < a > html that you used here isn’t correct). Anyway, I came across this revealing summary of Washington’s Fundamentalist Fraternity. IMO, if you consider the importance of Hagee in the overall scheme of the American Evangelical movement, then this is required reading.

end of days, Joe pags, John Hagee, John McCain, Rapture

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Hamid Karzai has once again escaped assassination today when Taliban insurgents sent mortar fire and bullets at a spectator stand where he was speaking. This occurs within hours of his declaration that the U.S. should “leave the Taliban alone.” One person died and 11 were injured. There have been atlleast 3 earlier attempts to kill him - this is the first time an attempt was made in Kabul.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and said that it had disrupted the ceremony to show that it could carry out an attack anywhere in Afghanistan. “We cannot say Afghanistan is free. Afghanistan is still under the domination of infidels. This ceremony being held by Mujahadeen is baseless,” Zabiullah Mujahed, a Taliban spokesman, said when contacted by telephone.

Note the use of the word “mujahadeen.” But for the counterpoint, we have Karzai deriding the U.S. and the U.K. to let him deal with the Taliban. So here, thanks to the BBC, are pictures of the attack. I’m certain that there are people smarter than me who disagree about the tenuous condition of the Afghan government. Just as I am sure that some people will argue that Karzai was not the target and that the Taliban (or some other group of “baddies” were simply trying to disrupt the ceremony (celebrating 16 years since Kabul was taken from the Soviet-led government), but “whatevah!”

Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, has called on British and American troops to stop arresting Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, saying that their operations undermined his government’s authority and were counter-productive.

I still want Karzai in the World leader death pool (with the over/under).

assassination, Karzai, mujahadeen, Taliban, World Leader death pool

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In his last press conference before yielding the Russian Presidency to his handpicked successor, Dmitri A. Medvedev, and taking over as Russian Premier, Putin blasted the West.  As many people watch the American Presidential race, the fact is that Putin’s actions now will influence the next Administration.  The Cold War is back.

In a confident and forceful public performance in which he described many of Russia’s continuing policy choices, Mr. Putin spoke bitingly of his international critics and defied Washington by refusing to back down from threats to aim strategic missiles at the Czech Republic, Poland and Ukraine.

Doubt it?  This nuclear threat should not be taken lightly, and it is tied to the possible breakaway of Kosovo from Serbia.  Although it is an unspecified retaliation, it is a threat nonetheless.

In a vintage performance, the former KGB spy laced almost five hours of invective with crude insults, threats and admonitions often expressed in the argot of the Russian street.

Reserving his greatest ire for the United States, which he accused of harbouring a colonial mentality towards Russia, Mr Putin again said that Europe would pay the consequences for a Washington-backed plan to erect a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

“Our generals, our security council, consider these moves a threat to our national security,” he said. “We asked our partners to stop but no one listened to us. So if they continue we will have to react appropriately by retargeting our missiles.” Mr Putin also made similar threats against Ukraine if it joined Nato.

Vladimir Putin is emerging as the next dictator of Russia. Watch as the story begins to unfold and remember that you read it here.

Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED), with other related posts linked within this one (two from a year ago).

Kosovo.  Putin argues that any breakaway from Serbia will be illegal, that the U.S. and Europe supporting the Kosovo breakaway as illegal and immoral.

There has been speculation that Moscow could retaliate by recognising the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the separatist Moldovan enclave of Trans-Dniester.

Watch these developments carefully ladies and gentlemen.

Abkhazia, Kosovo, Moldovan, Serbua, South Ossetia

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Just a short note.  As the World turns, if you haven’t noticed, suicide bombings are ramping up.  Nearly 20 people (and counting) have been killed and over 50 injured in a suicide attack near the Lahore High Court, Pakistan on January 10, a suicide bomber blew up the explosives fastened to his body in Qalat, capital of the country’s Zabul province, and 3 policemen were killed and 12 wounded in twin coordinated blasts that at the centre of the Baghdad.

I don’t know why people think this is just a “blip on the radar screen.”  Its real, and its continuing.

And now, I…well, I leave again…perhaps to return this weekend.

suicide bombings

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[*W.I.P.*: This is a starting point for a post that will be completed during the week as time permits]

Audacious or not, allow me to project to the future and offer some of my “crystalline balls” visions for the coming year.  A tumultuous year ended with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.  I believe that this illustrates the general point that ”we” do not understand our enemy, nor do we understand their tactics.  Thus, my theme for 2008 is that al Qaeda will re-emerge (OK, that’s too easy, since they didn’t create 2001-type havoc last year).

I am, no doubt, influenced by my near obsessive reading of the work of the “experts” in counterterrorism and world events (that is unavoidable), as I am by my own work (”day job”).  I also attempt to read original source policy material as it is available.  All of that, and history, tells me that the future is unpredictable.  Yet trends are readily apparent.  Generally, I sense a greater undercurrent of unrest around the World…the pressure seems to be building.  The “crystalline balls” tells me that we’re in for an unstable and upsetting year.  Hopefully, more brief than last year, then, the following will stand for judgment next year at this time.

Overall - The Enemy
The tactics of al Qaeda are evolving. All too many people fail to recognize the resiliency of this enemy. Many believe that al Qaeda is simply a band of camel jockeys hiding out in the mountains of Pakistan.  Others seem to discount al Qaeda and the rest of the jihadis as a group of “pedophile praying predators.” In fact, however, the al Qaeda core (often now referred to as al Qaeda 1.0) is an intelligent and manipulative bunch, hijacking the religion of Islam (please don’t expect me to repeat the all too often spouted lines of blanket hatred).  Looming is al Qaeda 2.0 and any of the other spin-offs or off-shoots or clones. 

It is all of these with which we deal…not just one, and not only until one of the heads (bin Laden) is killed or captured.  Losing sight of the Long War philosophy (as one or more of the current Presidential candidates has done) is to commit National Suicide.  One of the things that I missed a few years back in my debate over state sponsored terrorism and the amorphous terrorism of al Qaeda was the possibility that as time passed, locally independent terrorist organizations like Abu Sayyaf might move more closely to the core.  Thus, for all of the wrong reasons (meaning not necessarily religious ones), indigenous and independent terrorist orgainzations could well link themselves to al Qaeda, and thus change the dymanics of terrorism (state sponsored, al Qaeda, and independents joining).  While it is true that the jihad has lost some of its cohesiveness, at the same time, this is one of the things that people watching misread…the jihad does not require a structure to succeed.

Others have written this, and I am left to agree…the assassination of Benazir Bhutto may mark a shift in tactics.  If political assassination combined with suicide bombs are to become a new weapon of these folks, we’re in for an interesting transition in this War on Terrorism.  It is clear that al Qaeda recognizes the impact on World affairs when a country’s leader is attacked.  While Bhutto was more current victim, I find it astounding that Hamid Karzai is still alive…the same, frankly, holds for Perez Musharraf (I had him dead and buried a couple of times in 2007 - they missed).  The natural disruption of attacking a national leader is as effective a tool of terrorism as blowing up a train…in fact, maybe even moreso.

Domestic
I question the resolve of the American people, and fear that we have returned to a pre-September 11th complacency (this is not a statement of Republican versus Democrat or liberal versus conservative, but a generalized observation). While that alone does not bode well for this country, or for the World, the fact that most people do not feel threatened is a concern. This is largely attributable to the fact that nothing (much) has happened here, and at the same time, many feel “put out” by the extra security measures in place at our airports.

It is unreasonable for the general populace to sense danger when all they see is inconvenience at home and the violence occurs somewhere else. When I travel, I still see people objecting to having bottled water or nail clippers confiscated as they pass through security. In addition to often see lax airport security, I also see (actually have read) of the sloppiness at our border check points.  Add to that the difficulties in launching secure identification programs (okay, I am well aware of the systems and programs that are in place, but the fall short of the ideal measures that were initially recommended).  We lack secure personal identity documents.

Whether or not the Democrats or the Republicans enter the White House a little over a year from now, events will unfold that will require action.  Thus, despite all of the rantings from “certain corners,” America will need to be defended.  I think that it is unreasonable to believe that we will remain unscathed by terrorism in this country.  Global terrorism is just that, global, and whether it is 2008 or later, it will likely hit us.

● If, as we believe, that there are “sleeper cells” already in place in the U.S., then a “Bhutto-like” attack on an American political figure is not out of the realm of possibility.

● We talk about it, and yet the politicians (both sides) abandon programs.  In 2007, port security and security at our Nation’s chemical and nuclear facilities was questioned, and breached.  An attack on critical infrastructure is not out of the question…our ports remain unsecure to the levels truly required.

● When you combine constant flow of illegal immigrants over and across the U.S.-Mexican border with the belief that terrorism is festering in Central and South America, it is not hard to see that the Mexican border will remain a key conduit for terrorism and terrorists entering the country.  I, for one, believe that “they” are here already, and walk among us freely.

One other point of importance is that the War in Iraq, regardless of its motives or justifications has replaced the War on Terrorism in many citizens’ minds.  It has also been lumped together with the War on Terrorism, perhaps largely because the President made it clear that fighting in Iraq was an important battlefield against terrorism.  I continue to believe that the removal of the Hussein family from power in Iraq was an inevitable step…whether the timing of the invasion (or the initial rational - WMD) was appropriate is now not at all relevant (see discussion of Iraq below).

North America
The porous Canadian border has been a concern since Y2K. That we haven’t experienced an attack through that path is surprising. Yet, back in 2002, we had the case of the Lackawana Six. Did you know that one of the terrorism suspects, Yahya Goba has his sentence reduced by a year (he’ll be out in 2010) because of his cooperation, and for his testimony in the Jose Padilla case?

Watch the infrastructure…power plants, water pumping stations and the like.  Watch for more discoveries of illegal immigrants in “sensitive jobs” as we saw this year at a few military installations.  And most importantly, keep your eyes on the ports.  I still believe that the reported “dirty bomb” plot in NY City, and the response of the NY City ER people was seen as a test run by the “bad guys.”  While I do not believe the Internet or talk radio chatter that the Democrats will, in one swoop, reverse years of heightened security, I do fear that any relaxation of regulations or controls or restrictions (read that as the Patriot Act) can and will only lead to a tragic end.

Mexico represents a serious challenge to American National security.  Make no mistake about it, the drug wars between the cartels is an accelerating problem.  Regardless of what Mexican President Calderone does with the federales, the cartels have considerably more resources and resolve.

Central and South America
Among the many issues facing the World in Central and South America lies in Nicaragua (Daniel Ortega and Ahmadinejad). The prospect of Iran having a beach head in Central America from which to launch an attack via Hezbollah is serious.

Another of the impending crisis points is in Venezuela…no, not just that Chavez is an asshole, greasy monkey. The continuing hostage drama with the FARC in neighboring Columbia could become a flashpoint in 2008…maybe soon.

Africa
The list includes Algeria, Morocco, Sudan (where an American diplomat was killed on New Years Eve), Somalia (the ICU - also see Ethiopia), Kenya (where the recent election has given rise to riots - and where Muslims constitute a sizable minority and include both Sunni and Shi’ites), Ethiopia (see Somalia), Mauritania. I’m sure I’ve missed one or two other African hotspots. There is a reason for the U.S. establishing the African Command.

Europe
More to come later, but I believe that the demographic trends in Europe as a whole could make 2008 the year in which a Muslim Europe begin to unfold. In parallel, this will lead to greater unrest and possibly increased violence. As the fundamentalist movement takes hold in certina European countries like Denmark and France, the chances of terrorism increaes dramatically.

Russia
At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation.  Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now.  Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility.  Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

The Pacific
Philippines and Bali, Indonesia.

Now for the BIG ONES: I believe that “we” have miserably missed the mark in understanding the cultural backdrop in which our military now fights this War on Terrorism. This is shown in the way in which Pakistan and Afganistan have devolved as the Taliban/al Qaeda have become reinvigorated. The Bhutto assassintation and the recently announced delays in the January elections all lead to continuing and potentially broadening unrest and violence. The possibility of al Qaeda or the Taliban (or some other clone of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement) gaining control in Pakistan, and its nuclear stores, offers enough of a nightmare scenario for anyone…our next President will be dealing with this one for years.  Further, despite “patriotic” arguments to the contrary, I do not believe that we can superimpose democratic ideals upon an unwilling populace or on a society in which the very concepts of freedom (as defined by Western culture) are foreign, without great stress and a high degree of risk.

In Afghanistan, I still see Karzai losing control (if not his life) as the warlords re-exert their influence. Karzai’s willingness to appease the Taliban (as did Musharraf) can only lead to problems for the U.S.  Added January 6 - If you want an example of where Karzai’s future is dimming, its important to place the recent announcement that Afghan Clerics Warn Karzai Against Missionaries as an indicator.

Afghanistan’s Islamic council has told President Hamid Karzai to stop foreign aid groups from converting local people to Christianity and has demanded the reintroduction of public executions…The council said it was concerned about the activities of some “missionary and atheistic” groups, saying that the actions were “against Islamic Shariah, the Constitution, and political stability,” according to a copy of the statement. “If not prevented, God forbid, catastrophe will emerge, which will not only destabilize the country, but the region and the world.”

I see the pressures mounting on Karzai from a number of different directions.

Israel - Inevitably, there will be another Holyland War.  Whether it occurs this year or later depends upon the questions of how threatened Israel feels by its Arab neighbors, and by the level of influence that bin Laden’s most recent missive may have. Ahmadinejad’s use of brinkmanship aside, I don’t think that Iran will attack Israel (“boy is that a thin limb fo rme to hang from”)

Saudi Arabia - How long does anyone think that the Saudis can escape from the impact of terrorism?

Turkey - As expected last year, Turkey will not sit idly by as Iraqi Kurds seek more freedom, or control over the oil, or worse (in their minds), total independence.

STRATEGIES AND TACTICS: In this section, I will offer some non-professional (as I am not employed by the government) advice about things that we should do to combat terrorism.

Also refer to:
Odds and Ends at Year’s End, Doug Farah
2007: A Global Assessment of the Confrontation, Walid Phares

[*W.I.P.*]: This is clearly a work in progress that will be eventually completed over the next few days.. At that time, I’ll close the post and date it.

2008 predictions, al Qaeda, Bhutto, combatting terrorism, Jose Padilla, Lackawana, lackawana six, Litvinenko, National Suicide, Putin, State Department, Yahya Goba

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