StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

One of my previous posts, Who Mourns Our Fallen Soldiers, prompted a comment from someone whose voice needs to be heard. His message and story is worth reading. Clearly, while agreeing with some of what I write, he did express a disagreement with parts of this particular post (see my explanation below). Here is the comment, converted into a well-deserved place on this blog as a single post.

From a Soldier writing from a dot mil email address:

I realize this post may never be read, but I wanted to let everyone know that I am a US Army Reservist presently attached to the 3rd Battalion, 7th Infantry Regiment, 3d Infantry Division headquartered at FOB Iskan, just across the Euphrates River from Jurf as Sahkr, Iraq. Jurf as Sahkr, or “Jurf” to those of us who patrol the area on a daily basis, was one of the last AQI strongholds in Anbar Province. This area was only recently “awakened” by the Coalition Forces. I’ve been here for months now, doing the dirty work of convincing the locals that we are right and AQI is bad and so on, but my primary concern was to locate the remains of our MIA Soldiers. For the past year, we never gave up on those Soldiers. We conducted leaflet drops from Blackhawk helicopters, blared messages of support to them (although we were quite certain they had been murdered) and messages to the enemy that we would not rest until they were found. I can assure you that the every measure to locate those brave men was taken (within the boundaries of the Law of Warfare, of course). Although I can not tell you how we collected the information that led to the recovery of these men’s remains, I can tell you that it was most certainly not a “message” from AQI. AQI heard our “message” in Jurf as Sahkr, and it was usually delivered with precision guided missiles and 25mm machine-gun spitting hell’s fire from a Bradley Fighting Vehicle. These days, violence in Jurf has fallen to the lowest level since 2003. We are discovering enormous weapons caches that the fleeing AQI cowards could not take with them and uncovering DBIEDs (Deep-Buried IED) that have laid dormant for years. We are rebuilding schools, medical clinics, and local governance centers. Since the recovery of SGT Jimenez and PFC Fouty, the Government of Iraq and Coalition Forces have opened up their wallets to the good people of Jurf and the level cooperation with and gratuity for the Soldiers of the Iraqi and American military is overwhelming. Keep in mind that most of the residents of rural areas, where AQI dominated every aspect of life, fled their homes to avoid those murderous bastards and returned to find leveled homes and slaughtered livestock (both common tactics, techniques, and procedures of AQI members prior to their departure). These people came out to the hasty burial site of our Soldiers because what we found was not just the remains of our Fallen, but those of some 60 locals who stood up to AQI and were executed en masse.

I appreciate the forum and look forward to reading more of your informative and entertaining posts!
Sincerely,
Matt

My comment: There is some technology still in development, and perhaps soon to be (or maybe not), that might have assisted in the search and rescue early on. Who knows?

Jurf, Jurf as Sahkr, SGT Jimenez and PFC Fouty

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The overly simplistic outlooks expressed by “the many” who see our victory vs al Qaeda in Iraq in a vacuum, without noting the “ebb and flow” of a morphing terrorism reveals an implausible blindness to the realities of the GWOT. While celebrating the handover of more provinces in Iraq to the post-Provisional government, lost is the view that al Qaeda and the like see none of the West’s boundaries pencil drawn on maps.

Yes, even as MSNBC declares that al Qaeda is less relevant to the outcome in Iraq, stating that while they haven’t been eliminated entirely, they are less of a threat, what of related areas of conflict, and what happens after the surge? And yes, as you will read in Amy Proctor’s article, Kuwait has opened diplomatic relations with Iraq. Yes, that is significant. And still, I have that nagging “yeah, but” feeling.

Even as it is noted that insurgents in Iraq are “giving up the fight,” the reports of al Qaeda redeploying their forces to Afghanistan, reopening that front in the GWOT, and worse, importing foreign fighters from Turkey, Central Asia, Chechnya and the Middle East, we cannot consider the victory in the now relative skirmish in Iraq to be a sign that we can allow our guard to go down. In fact, with the fresh influx of al Qaeda/Taliban troops to Afghanistan, I fear that we shall once again turn our attention to the once “won” war in Afghanistan.

There are at least two issues which are ignored by those who believe that victory in Iraq is more significant than it is…victory in Iraq which I believe can truly only be declared after the post-Provisional government there is stable and is able to not only provide security, but also reliable services to their people, cannot be determined in simple terms of turning over control to the Iraqis, or even by troop withdrawals by the U.S. The first, is the continuing instability in the north of Iraq where the Turks and Kurds continue to battle. Even without al Qaeda in Iraq, the region remains dangerously unstable.

The second, and probably more significant, issue is that al Qaeda is not a government, or maybe even not an organization. It is a system, and a very adaptable one at that. So, as with the ebb and flow of the sands on an ocean beach, moving ever so slowly with the tides, shifting from one place to the next, often seeing a particular beach grow by ten yards, while two others shrink in size, al Qaeda, a system and methodology of terrorism based on the jihad, continues to morph. Thus, the influence of foreign fighters must be considered.

The Small Wars Journal posted an interesting “interim” report titled, “Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan.”

The data demonstrates that Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen produce the most foreign fighters per Muslim, each averaging from four to eight times as many fighters as the average rate for the twenty countries analyzed. The second tier of foreign fighter producers consists of Kuwait, Syria, Tunisia, and Jordan. While all second tier countries produced less than half as many fighters as the top tier producers, they still produced more than the twenty-country average.

In the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio discusses that the attack at the Nuristan base on July 13th in Afghniastan was a complicated operation in which 200-500 Taliban took over an adjacent village before attacking. Here is a long but key quote:

The assault on the Wanat outpost was conducted by an alliance of extremist groups operating in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to reports. A senior Afghan defense official told Al Jazeera that “various anti-government factions including Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Hezb-i-Islami faction were involved” in the strike.

Tamim Nuristani, who served as governor of Nuristan before President Hamid Karzai relieve him of his post for criticizing a US airstrike that is thought to have killed Afghan civilians, said Taliban and Pakistani groups banded together for the attack. “The (attackers) were not only from Nuristan but from other districts,” Nuristani said.

“They are not only Taliban. They were (Pakistan-based) Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hezb-i-Islami, Taliban and those people who are dissatisfied with the (Karzai) government after these recent incidents,” Nuristani said, intimating the attack was revenge for the US airstrike. “They all came together for this one.”

And then Roggio discusses the mounting of U.S. troops on the border with Pakistan, returing fire of the Taliban fighters. Another quote, discussing the border:

Tensions along the ill-defined, rugged border have escalated since the Pakistani government initiated its latest round of peace accords with the Taliban and allied extremists in the tribal areas and settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province.

Some people’s mistaken belief that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq is more than a minor victory in the much longer war against Islamic extremism is naive in my opinion. Further, to not see the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq as much more than pushing the bully to another part of the playground is a dangerous outlook.

It must not be forgotten that al Qaeda will morph and shift and change as is required to adapt in the various skirmishes. Doug Farah discussed “The Morphing War Against Al Qaeda in Iraq” last February.

The point is that, while there seems to be little doubt that the al Qaeda-linked groups in Iraq are hurt, the next iteration of the groups may make them even harder to get at.

Perhaps celebrate the “victory” in Iraq (when it is actually time to do so). But do not try to convince me, or others who know more than I, that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq will do nothing much more than shift their attention and their resources to other fields of battle that are softer and more vulnerable.

al Qaeda, morphing, State Department

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Maybe unnoticed by some, within the last 24 hours the remains of Army Sergeant Alex Jimenez and Private Byron Fouty, the two Army men kidnapped last May, were found and ID’d. Their fathers mourn.

Fouty’s stepfather, Gordon Dibler of Oxford, Michigan: he’s “still in shock” but the news comes as a “very sad relief” and that his thoughts are with the “other men and women who are still doing their job over there.” Sergeant Jimenez’s father says the news “shattered all hope”

But do we mourn as a Nation for these men, kidnapped by al Qaeda, or is a Defense Dept. press release sufficient? I wonder what ops conditions allow men to be kidnapped from the battlefield. I wonder what it means that they were never sought or found or rescued.

al Qaeda, Fouty, Jimenez

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Whatever “yellow cake” Saddam possessed is now in Canada. With the shipment of 550 metric tons of the stuff through the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia in a secret U.S. mission, its now all in Canada.

The Iraqi government sold the yellowcake to a Canadian uranium producer, Cameco Corp., in a transaction the official described as worth “tens of millions of dollars.” A Cameco spokesman, Lyle Krahn, declined to discuss the price, but said the yellowcake will be processed at facilities in Ontario for use in energy-producing reactors.

“We are pleased … that we have taken (the yellowcake) from a volatile region into a stable area to produce clean electricity,” he said.

It took over a year, and 37 military flights to Diego Garcia, and then a U.S. flagged ocean voyage that left the island on June 3rd to the unnamed Canadian port. Now, remains the task of cleaning up the Iraqi storage at the Tuwaitha nuclear complex about 12 miles south of Baghdad. Tuwaitha is apparently not the only “hot spot” that needs remediation.

Saddam, Tuwaitha, yellow cake, yellowcake

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Anyone who reads this space knows that I’ve frequently made predictions. Those among you also know that at the predicted time, it is time to step back, reflect and recognize the validity of those predictions. On December 26, 2007 Austin Bay wrote, “Sometime within the next six months or so, al Qaeda or Saddamist terrorists will attempt a Tet offensive.” The article urged readers to believe that the jihadists sought to emulate the strategic political effects North Vietnam’s 1968 attack obtained.

Mr. Bay then went to draw an historic parallel between the peacewing of the Democratic party during the Civil War led by Clement Vallandigham to Senator Harry Reid (who Bay called “our era’s Vallandighams”). And further, Mr. Bay predicted that:

Their “ultimate Iraqi Tet” would feature simultaneous terror strikes in every major Iraqi city. These simultaneous strikes would inflict hideous civilian casualties with the goal of discrediting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s and General David Petraeus’ assessments that Iraqi internal security has improved. The terrorists would reduce Iraqi government buildings to rubble.

Well, I don’t want to be proven wrong by near term events, but given the “effectiveness” of the surge. there is reason to expect that no Iraqi Tet will occur (too soon at least). Of course, Bay bought himself a bit of leeway by then saying that the Election period in November would give al Qaeda, the jihad, the Islamic Fundamentalists etc. the opportunity to inflict “sensational carnage that even momentarily seeds the perception of defeat is their only chance of victory.”

But I’ll bet that Bay got his 10 votes within minutes…LOL And yes, I’ve had this article bookmarked since it first appeared simply to see if the bold prediction played out in reality.

Austin Bay, Terrorists Tet

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As I have before, I find myself in a sort of political “nowhere land” largely because despite what I believe in my heart, I also have a deep-seated distain for the type of personal attack politics that now pervades our society. On many issues, including the War in Iraq, I am strongly Republican (even though I feel that policy, strategy and tactical mistakes have been made). Yet when I voice my pro-choice belief, I am immediately challenged and branded a “librul.” It is clear that one is not afforded the opportunity (or privilege) of walking that thin-line in the American Middle.

There is nothing in either Democratic Party candidate that could prompt me to vote for them. Frankly, I am glad that John McCain, regardless of his flaws (aren’t we all flawed afterall?), is the candidate for the Republican Party (I am equally thrilled that a social, or “values” conservative is not the party’s nominee).

At the same time, it is impossible to maintain my views in World and National Affairs, focused on security both home and abroad, and not be appalled by this video compilation in which the Democratic Party leaders ask for what amounts to be a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq.

The road to democracy, our continuing quest to perfect an already perfect Union, remains a challenge each day. If not motivated solely by partisan politics, but in fact, driven by strongly held beliefs, these Democratics leaders are entitled to their opinions.

The reality is as former Secretary of State Powell noted…”we broke it, we need to fix it” (or something close to that). Leaving Iraq and abandoning the Middle East…in fact, abandoning the “fix the Middle East” strategy of the Bush Administration can only lead to the emboldening of those people who our State Department and Department of Homeland Security refuse to call what they are, Isalamic Fundamentalist Jihadists, exactly the opportunity they plan…a World power without the resolve to see through to the end an effort, regardless how flawed, poorly planned and implemented, or even falsely justified…and with that, the Long War of the Global War on Terrorism will be both longer, and more difficult to win.

Prevail we must…for the sake of our democracy, we must. And we will. Despite the character assassination, the inuendo, the gossip, the lies and falsehoods, the “swift boating” and all of the rest of the dirty, Internet inspired politics…we will emerge the day after this coming election day with a President who will have won the most Electoral votes, and as envisioned by our Founding Fathers, power will transfer, and the Nation shall prevail. In what state the World will be on that day, is a completely different question.

democracy, librul, McCain

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Is this a scramble to avoid accountability or a parsing of words?  Seems that the “supreme guide” of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Mahdi Akef, had some 2nd thoughts.  At first, it sounded like he was praising bin Laden, but then he tried to “swallow his words.” It is clearly a question of the meaning of “jihad.”

Mr. Mahdi Akef tried to water down his statements in which he had praised Bin Laden and thus justified it by saying, “what Bin Laden is doing against the occupier in Iraq and other Muslim countries that are under occupation is jihad, but what he is committing against people and civilians in Muslim and other states is wrong.”

The question is: Are the acts that Al-Qaeda is committing in Iraq; the killing, treachery and entrapment of people, including the physically ill, women and children; the beheadings and targeting of markets, schools and houses of worship, not to mention the demolition of installations and the crippling of the political process in Iraq – be considered jihad? Can the crimes that Al-Qaeda commits in Afghanistan be considered jihad?

Alas, “bin Akef” is caught in his own words…backtracking is so hard to do…Even his subsequent statements denying that he praised al Qaeda make it hard(er) for him to justify…

Akif said: “We (the Brotherhood) have nothing to do with Al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Laden… we are against violence except when fighting the occupier…When he (Bin Laden) fights the occupier then he is a mujahid, and when he attacks civilians, then this is rejected.” He added that “the word Al-Qaeda (Organization) is an American illusion…Bin Laden has a thought …his thought is based on violence, and we do not approve of violence under any circumstances except one and that is fighting an occupier. We have nothing to do with Al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Laden…we condemn any thought that leads to violence. When Bin Laden fights the occupier then he is a mujahid, when he attacks the innocent and citizens then this is rejected.”

But he draws a very thin line, differentiating between the “occupier” and the people of the “occupied” land. Such is the conflict that exists in today’s Muslim world. Caught between speaking out against America, and not looking like it supports the violence and bloodshed brought upon the people of Iraq and Afghanistan in al Qaeda’s efforts to fight the Coalition.

al Qaeda, bin Akif, Muslim Brotherhood

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To me, this is comical. Saddam Hussein feared contracting HIV or an STD from guards in the prison he was kept prior to his hanging. Other insights into how this madman thought were revealed in his diaries, being reported today.

Among the revelations of from the Al-Hayat newspaper was that he feared catching “young people’s diseases” because the soldiers were hanging their clothes out to dry on the same clothes line with his.

Of course, the diaries (not available in their entirety yet, I don’t think), also offer insight into this madman’s thinking.

“I explained to them that they are young and they could have young people’s diseases,” Saddam wrote. “My main concern was to not catch a venereal disease, an HIV disease, in this place.”

[:]

“The spread of the Persians… is more dangerous for Iraq than the Zionist entity, now and in the future,” he wrote. “The Persians are similarly dangerous to the Arab nation, especially the Arab countries of the Gulf.”

More is included in another article:

I joked with him saying… may Allah will enable me to get married and have children again, to name two of them Uday and Qusay, and the third Mustapha,” wrote Saddam, who was reportedly married four times.

This is a link to the translated page(s) of Al-Hayat. Here is one of his poems.

I suspect that I remain in the minority on this one. But Hussein was so delusional that I believe that either his WMDs had been shipped out of Iraq and sent to Syria (or Yemen), or maybe more likely, Saddam had been duped by his scientists into believing that Iraq still maintained a stockpile of WMDs, their motivation being the continuation of their budgets and good life styles afforded by doing phantom research.

al Hayat, diaries, Hussein, WMDs

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Has al Qaeda been “lured” back into Baghdad because of the recent bombings in Sunni areas? With the attention drawn to al Sadr’s Mahdi Army, it appears possible that AQI has returned. This happens as the Iraqi forces remain focused on the Mahdi.

Pointing to the bombings last weekend, the fear is that AQI has returned.

Now, some observers fear Sunni insurgents allied with al-Qaeda may seek to capitalize on the situation by wreaking havoc in other neighborhoods where U.S. and Iraqi forces are paying less attention. Last month, American troops found a letter in a farmhouse northwest of Baghdad, purportedly signed by an al-Qaeda operative, which called on insurgents to sow disunity among the nation’s Sunni fighters who have begun working with the Americans.

Apparently using a new tactic of tandem events, if this is AQI, they are drawing crowds of people to the first incident, like the recent assassination style killing of a shopkeeper and his son, and then exploding the bomb.

“These attacks are evidence that al-Qaeda is still a very large threat,” Rear Admiral Patrick Driscoll, a spokesman for the multi-national forces in Iraq, said Sunday, “We are continuously very closely focused on al-Qaeda.”

I may well be swimming against the stream of the happy talk right on this one. The question could well be whether AQI ever really left. The question may still remain if even American presence in Baghdad and the region, whether the Sunni/Shi’a conflict will be quelled, or if it remains the festering boil that it has always been.

al Qaeda in Iraq, AQI

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In a new and still to be authenticated audio, it seems like Ayman al-Zawahiri is making a point of refuting the theory that Israel carried out the September 11th attacks, blaming Shi’ite Hezbollah and Iran of spreading the rumor. The voice however, does sound like AQ#2.

“The purpose of this lie is clear — (to suggest) that there are no heroes among the Sunnis who can hurt America as no else did in history. Iranian media snapped up this lie and repeated it,” he said.

“Iran’s aim here is also clear — to cover up its involvement with America in invading the homes of Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq,” he said.

I wonder, with Zawahiri denouncing the “Crusader invasion” of Iraq, and now linking it to mention of “Iranian complicity” or “Iranian agents” if we are beginning to see the emergence of a Muslim versus Muslim conflict. While Zawahiri also include Japan in the list of countries that aided the “Crusader invasion” of Iraq, among the targets of al Qaeda terror. Further, if it is the case that al Qaeda is seeing Iran as complicit in the invasion of Afghanistan, then how does it see the involvement of Iran in Iraq?

Zawahiri concludes with: “The Crusaders and their agents in Pakistan and Afghanistan are starting to fall.”

al Qaeda, Crusaders, Iran, Zawahiri

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There once was a man named Patrick Henry who said “Give me liberty, or give me death.”  Let us not be confused. Now there’s a man named Patrick McHenry who has abused the power of his position and shown extraordinarily poor judgment.  On a March 22nd Congressional boondoggle to Iraq, Cong. McHenry not only violated the rules by videotaping and posting self-serving commentary on his website, but also chatised one of our soldiers when McHenry was refused access to a Green Zone gym for not having the right credentials.

McHenry’s trip to Iraq had already been mired in controversy after his GOP political opponent, military attorney Lance Sigmon of Newton , posted a YouTube.com video of the lawmaker telling local Republicans about his unsuccessful efforts to get into the gym in the Green Zone. McHenry said he was shut out by a “two-bit security guard.”

So now, what does this faint example of a Congressman do? The new criticism stems from a video that was featured on his Web site last Friday. Shot in the Green Zone, it showed McHenry gesturing to a building behind him and saying that one of 11 rockets “hit just over my head.” Then he named two other places struck by the rockets.On Monday, a veterans group called VoteVets.org accused McHenry of giving away intelligence information that could have aided terrorist organizations in targeting the Green Zone.

Oh! Did I mention that this bozo is a Republican Congressman??? Let’s take a look at what this fine conservative Republican stands for:

Legislative priorities:

• Second Amendment: Congressman McHenry is a strong proponent of the right to keep and bear firearms. He supports efforts to allow active and retired law enforcement officers to carry concealed weapons in any part of America. He also sponsored “reciprocity” legislation, which allows people with concealed carry permits issued in one state to carry their weapons in other states.

• Pro-Life: Congressman McHenry strongly believes in protecting the rights of the unborn. He supports legislation that would put an end to abortion and assisted suicide, prohibit euthanasia, and opposes legislation that generally disregards the sanctity of human life.

• Traditional Marriage: Congressman McHenry believes that marriage is between one man and one woman, and is the principal institution that holds society together. He opposes efforts to allow same-sex marriage, and opposes the appointment of activist judges who legislate from the bench.

• Jobs: Congressman McHenry supports four principles to help bring good jobs to North Carolina. As small businesses are responsible for two-thirds of all new job creation, the congressman supports cutting regulations on small business that strangle job growth. He supports tort reform, which will lower the cost of heath care by limiting useless lawsuits. Furthermore, Mr. McHenry supports the continued education and training of workers through institutions like community colleges. He also supports tax relief, which will spur economic growth and job creation, as taxpayers will spend more of their hard-earned dollars in the private sector.

• Social Security: Congressman McHenry believes in reforming the Social Security system by allowing younger workers to voluntarily invest a portion of their Social Security taxes into a “nest-egg” that they can pass on to their children. Social Security is facing a crisis: In 10 years, the program will start paying out more money than it will receive from tax revenues. When the program was created, there were 40 workers for every retiree. Now there are only three workers per retiree.

This man is an idiot who shouldn’t be representing the fine people of his Congressional District, North Carolina 10. A conservative he may be…but an idiot is he also. Probably an arrogant one at that.

Congressman McHenry, idiot of the day

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Despite what may now be said about faulty CIA intelligence or even fabricated reports/analyses, it is hard (for me) to not believe in the merits of pre-emption.  Clearly, some of the rationales for the War were found (actually not found) to not exist.  Further, many of the strategic flaws and unanticipated consequences (that in my opinion should have been anticipated) have come to pass.  Still, pre-emption is today, in my opinion, the only viable approach.  We cannot await an unannounced attack to prepare for, and in fact mount, a counterattack.  Some may argue that pre-emption is not a countermeasure at all, but a provocative move.  Yes, I suppose that it is.  But, if we do not act in anticipation, then the costs are far more dear than those incurred through pre-emption.  I realize that that position is both controversial and contradictory.

Tonight on CBS 60 Minutes, Doug Feith was interviewed…from 2001 to 2005, Feith was under secretary of defense for policy and the No. 3 man at the Pentagon.  He is, in my estimation, a weasel.  However, this weasel did reveal some thinking that actually validates many of the things I have written here in the past.  Those things, often contradictory because I supported the invasion of Iraq (based my reading of the Iraq report of the time) and because later, I believed that it was necessary to remove Hussein and his sons…and yet…I did question some of the strategies that led us to today in Iraq (and Afghanistan - one must link the two).

Thus, we have this interview (with an unavoidable lead-in):

Doug Feith, Hussein, Parade of Horribles

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End of 1st Q ‘08, so its time for observations again.  Scouting around some of the “usual suspects” on the Internet, much of what I see is “happy talk.”  Despite all of this “happy talk,” it is way too early to declare victory!  At least one unjaded opinion (mine) sees a number of opportunities for disappointment - Pakistan (where I may have been wrong about the transition from Musharraf), Iraq with the post surge upsurge in sectarian violence, Iraq with the trembling of the Maliki gov’t, and still in Afganistan where the resurgence of the Taliban continues and I maintain doubt about Karzai’s future.

The degree and level of Iranian involvement in all of this is still at the root of the discussion about what is really going on.  There are some very reputable experts who see the non-transparent imprint of Iran on what is happening in Iraq today (watching the shoooting war outbreaking in Baghdad and Basra) while others less expert seem to consider al Sadr to be the culprit (while I do not question the role of Iran in all of this, there is also no doubt that al Sadr plays a role, and his Mahdi Army remains a threat worse than al Qaeda - according to Maliki).  In time, we will see the residual effects of the troop surge.  We will also see if the Maliki gov’t can stay power, or worse, what will happen if it fails.  We will witness the impact of Bhutto’s assassination, Musharraf’s electoral loss and the seating of a new government in Pakistan, a Muslim nuclear power.  And finally, we will see the impact when Karzai’s gov’t falls and the Taliban regain their foothold in Afghanistan.

For convenience (mine), I’m simply going to list a few readings:

Taliban declares start of new Afghan offensive-Web

The Taliban announced the start of a spring offensive in Afghanistan, promising “painful strikes” to force all enemy soldiers to leave, according to a Web message seen by a U.S.-based monitoring service on Thursday.

NATO-led forces have conducted wide-ranging offensives in southern Afghanistan to disrupt the insurgents ahead of spring, which each year heralds a surge in violence as the snows melt and fighters emerge from their mountain hideouts.

The Web message entitled “Taliban declares beginning of spring offensive in Afghanistan” was from Mullah Bradar Akhund, who styles himself deputy emir of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, according to a translation by the SITE Institute terrorism monitoring service seen in London.

Taliban again threaten spring offensive

The Taliban says it will use new techniques and draw on years of fighting experience to again increase attacks in Afghanistan this spring.A statement attributed to Taliban senior commander Mullah Bradar also warns Afghans working with the government to quit their jobs or risk being targeted.

Bradar said the Taliban is aiming to collapse the government of President Hamid Karzai. He said the militants would continue their attacks until the government is ousted and U.S. and NATO forces withdraw.

U.S. and NATO military officials dismiss the idea of a Taliban spring offensive and say the only offensive that will take place this year in Afghanistan is one by Western and Afghan troops.

Taliban increasingly turns to suicide bombings

Suicide bombing used to be a subject of debate among the Taliban, as they struggled to decide whether the tactic was too extreme, but the frightening new reality in Afghanistan is that the radicals appear to be winning that argument within the Taliban ranks.

None of the 42 insurgents surveyed by The Toronto Globe and Mail were willing to express any reservations about suicide bombings when confronted by a researcher with a video recorder, and many of them boasted that they were ready to volunteer for such missions themselves.

Some Taliban have previously argued that it’s cowardly to wear an explosive vest, because it prevents an insurgent from fighting his enemy face-to-face. Others suggested that the carnage among civilian bystanders that often results from a suicide blast alienates ordinary Afghans from the insurgency. A Taliban faction even took out an advertisement in one of Kandahar’s weekly newspapers in 2006, blaming recent suicide bombings on foreign fighters and promising to stop the attacks: ”We will punish them,” the advertisement said.

The Impact of Pashtun Tribal Differences on the Pakistani Taliban

Though members of militant Islamic groups such as the Pakistani Taliban and other jihadis have almost the same anti-United States and pro-al-Qaeda worldview, they are not especially disciplined when it comes to organizational matters. Difficulty in this area explains the existence of so many extremist factions operating under different leaders and commanders who sometimes express conflicting opinions on domestic and international issues.

The formation of an umbrella organization, Tehrek-e-Taliban-Pakistan (Movement of Pakistani Taliban, or TTP) on December 14, 2007, was meant to bring the different Taliban groups operating in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) into one formation and improve their coordination (The News International [Islamabad], December 15, 2007). Its spokesman, Maulvi Omar, a shadowy figure using a fake name, claimed that 27 Taliban factions operating in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were part of the movement. Nobody was surprised when Baitullah Mehsud, amir of the Taliban in the territory populated by the Mehsud Pashtun tribe in South Waziristan, was named as leader of the TTP. He was the most powerful among the Pakistani Taliban commanders and it was natural that he would lead the organization.

PLEASE NOTE AND REMEMBER HERE MY CONSISTENT AND LONG TERM CAUTION ABOUT TRUSTING THE PASHTUN

Al Qaeda’s Resurgence

FOUR YEARS AGO, HIS WORDS WOULD have represented an almost unquestioned consensus view. In late January, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator, Dell Dailey, described al Qaeda’s top leadership as isolated, saying that they have “much, much less central authority and much, much less capability to reach out.”

He is not alone in this assessment. In July 2007, Stratfor’s Peter Zeihan argued that while a few thousand people may claim to be al Qaeda members, “the real al Qaeda does not exercise any control over them. . . . The United States is now waging a war against jihadism as a phenomenon, rather than against any specific transnational jihadist movement.” The most prominent proponent of this view has been Jason Burke, a reporter for London’s Observer and the author of Al-Qaeda: The True Story of Radical Islam. By the time that book hit newsstands in 2003, Burke was already arguing that the “nearest thing to ‘Al-Qaeda,’ as popularly understood,” only existed for a five-year period, and the battle of Tora Bora in December 2001 showcased “the final scenes of its destruction.” Now, Burke contends, we are “in a ‘post-bin Laden’ phase of Islamic militancy.”

Unfortunately, all these men are wrong–and we will fight the war on terror less effectively if we continue to harbor mistaken assumptions about the al Qaeda network. It is important not to overstate what the terror group’s leadership needs to do to remain relevant. Even if the central leadership’s role is limited to connecting terrorist nodes–pairing skill sets, financing, and operatives–it can transform terrorist groups from disunited regional problems into cohesive adversaries capable of threatening Western societies. Moreover, the safe havens that al Qaeda’s leaders have gained in recent years magnify their lethal capabilities.

There are so many moves left in this chess game that no one can adequately predict the outcome, no matter how much they wish to project a positive one [just my opinion].  Wearing rose colored glasses is a fashion statement…putting your head in the sand can do two things.  It can keep you from seeing what is going on around you…and it can get your head shot off when you finally lift it to see how the world has changed, despite the happy talk.

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It bears repeating that Hussein was a provocateur of terrorism.  Revelations from the Iraq Perspectives Project continue.  Among them are that his intelligence agency had gathered information on dozens of targets inside of Israel, even being aided by Arafat’s Force 17 security force.

In addition to the detailed collection of intelligence on potential Israeli targets, the documents also show that Saddam’s intelligence was following closely the links between Iran and Hezbollah and the potential that such ties could provide Iran to operate in the territories and in North Africa

He also is known to have met with Arafat on April 19, 1990. In a video tape of that meeting, Saddam threatened to assassinate then president George Bush.

“We may not be able to reach Washington, but we could send someone with an explosives belt to Washington,” Saddam told Arafat, three months before the invasion of Kuwait. “We can send people to Washington. A man with an explosives belt could throw himself on Bush’s car.”

He is also reported to have told Arafat that he intended to launch surface-to-surface ballistic missiles against Tel Aviv and that he possessed chemical weapons that “have been successfully employed” against Iran - and he would not hesitate to also use them against Israel. So, all of the spin continues to spin.

You can read a bit more in a previous post, Connecting the Dots of the GWOT - Avoiding the Spin.  The partial quoting of the report from the Institute for Defense Analysis continues.  Even by some otherwise intelligent people.

Arafat, chemical weapons, Hussein, iraqi perspectives project

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Before you get your “panties in a knot” believing some of the anti-war spin on the recently released report from the IDA’s Iraq Perspectives Project, you can stop reading after the first line, “The Iraqi Perspectives Project (IPP) review of captured Iraqi documents uncovered strong evidence that links the regime of Saddam Hussein to regional and global terrorism. Despite their incompatible long-term goals, many terrorist movements and Saddam found a common enemy in the United States.”  Frankly, after that, unless you read the entire report, most of the interpretations are slanted, and faulty at best.

For the truth, read: Cherry-picking Intelligence: CONNECTED: Iraq and al Qaeda, Only Connected, Saddam’s Iraq and Terrorism and Report Details Saddam’s Terrorist Ties.   To quote selectively from among all of these highly recommended articles:

The Iraqi Intelligence documents discussed in the report link Saddam’s regime to: the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (the “EIJ” is al Qaeda number-two Ayman al Zawahiri’s group), the Islamic Group or “IG” (once headed by a key al Qaeda ideologue, Sheikh Omar Abdel-Rahman), the Army of Mohammed (al Qaeda’s affiliate in Bahrain), the Islamic Movement of Kurdistan (a forerunner to Ansar al-Islam, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Iraq), and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (a long-time ally of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan), among other terrorist groups. Documents cited by the report, but not discussed at length in the publicly available version (they may be in a redacted portion of the report), also detail Saddam’s ties to a sixth al Qaeda affiliate: the Abu Sayyaf group, an al Qaeda affiliate in the Philippines.

Both the EIJ and the IG were early and important core allies for Osama bin Laden as he forged the al Qaeda terror network, which comprises a number of affiliates around the world.

Believe the spin if you really must. But the truth lies within the facts that Hussein and his sons were in cahoots with virtually every terrorist organization in the Middle East. Despite the fact that Hussein’s Ba’athists had conflicting long term goals with some of the non-state actors, they found common ground in their hatred of America.

There are many, almost too many, pseudo reputable publications that will spin this every which way, including latching onto the single line in which the IPP also says that there is “no evidence of a smoking gun” between Iraq and al Qaeda. Wrong spin! Beware the information on which you form your judgments and opinions.

A recent post at the Right Truth refers to this subject in quote from NewsMax (it is what it is - about 5 days after most other analyses - but apparently on target nonetheless).

iraqi perspectives project

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