StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

For a guy who I continue to believe lives only because the War(drug)lords allow him to live, Hamid Karzai has a big set of balls. He is now blaming the British for the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Some people may think they were, but the truth is that they were never gone.

Karzai claims Brown has threatened to withdraw British troops from Helmand province, where 31 of them have died this year, if the president reinstates two provincial governors sacked for alleged dealings in the heroin trade.

I simply cannot accept this “brain fart” from Hamid. The Taliban is still alive because (hold onto your hats my friends), because WE allowed them to live.

All of this “happy talk” about Afghanistan emerging as a free democracy is and was crap! If you actually doubt the consistency of my beliefs and position of this, please read this search of Storm Blog on the key words of losing Afghanistan.” Then since you insist, just check out any discussion of the Durand Line or the ways in which the Pakistanis have negotiated with the Taliban in the Northwest Tribal Regions. IMO, Karzai is a damn lucky man to still be alive!

Karzai, Taliban

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If you are student of history, is it that far fetched that as the Presidential Election nears that another October Surprise would sprout? Back in 1980, when the concept of “October Surprise” was first coined. Now, conspiracy theorists and analysts alike are conjecturing about what new revelation could occur before this election. I’ve wondered how our Intel could not ID bin Laden’s position, and “snagging” bin Laden has been my imperative for quite some time

Against the backdrop of the political turmoil in Pakistan, the U.S. is pressing to finally do what it should have done before. And therein lies the potential for the October surprise. And with it…surprise. President Bush will solidify his legacy and make it (alot) easier to defeat Obama.

The October surprise? Catch Osama, of course! Its always been a function of two key components: 1) intelligence and 2) U.S. ability to chase into Pakistan.

U.S. ground forces crossed the border from Afghanistan and attacked suspected al Qaeda targets in Pakistan on Wednesday as part of an aggressive new strategy to kill or capture Osama bin Laden before President Bush leaves office, U.S. officials said.

Don’t believe it? Read more here.

Pakistan is “protesting” the incursion, but really? Pakistan’s position is that it is a victim of terrorism.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry called the raid “a grave provocation” and “a gross violation of Pakistan’s territory. … Such actions are counterproductive and certainly do not help our joint efforts to fight terrorism,” the ministry said. “On the contrary, they undermine the very basis of cooperation and may fuel the fire of hatred and violence that we are trying to extinguish.”

There have been stranger October Surprises before. And by the way, for those who are reading this because they saw it on Real Clear Politics, go ahead and “push that button” before it disappears from the front page…that is if the “spirit moves you” to do so.

October Surprise, Osama bin Laden

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Once again, there is a spreading (and almost hopeful) rumor that an attack on Iran is impending. The source? Primarily the Dutch newspaper, De Telegraaf. More “stuff” is here. Who knew that the Dutch had spies.

Let’s deal with a few “pointers.”

1) As noted “elsewhere” by one of our readers, AC McCloud, “It would be stupid for Bush to authorize an attack before the election with the Dems tying McCain to his belt loop at every chance.” Note however that the NRO article (below) does argue that an attack while under the new President (regardless of who it is) would be unlikely and that, therefore, an attack with GWB still in office to “clean-up” business could occur (I still don’t think so - but I could be wrong).

2) Despite the “cheering and rooting section” who somehow believe that an attack against Iran would be a good thing (I also read that a pre-emptive strike against Iran would leave Iran powerless to retaliate), it should be remembered that extreme heat will turn desert sand into glass (actually this hapens at approximately 3,600°F which is 1,982°C).

3) I submit that the linkage of the newly emboldened Russian bear with Iran makes a pre-emptive strike against Iran a “poor choice.”

4) About 3 weeks ago, Haaretz (הארץ) published an article detailing how the US had rejected an Israeli plan to attack Iran and denied Israel war materiale for the attack.

5) The regional and Global implications of such an attack are, in my opinion, beyond comprehension.

A little less than a year and a half ago, this was discussed here, Sneak Attack Against Iran This Friday! and yet, it is still “predicted.”

What’s the truth? I suspect that James Robbins of National Review (Another Rumor of War) is pretty close to objective when he writes:

Is an attack along the lines of that reported by De Telegraaf feasible? Critics say our forces are stretched thin, but not the air and naval strike assets that would be used in this type of limited operation. The targets would be hard to hit, but not impossible to take out. The Iranian nuclear program would be delayed, not destroyed — but isn’t delay better than just letting them go ahead? Iran might seek to escalate the crisis in a number of ways — an Iranian general recently said World War Three would break out while being a bit unclear on who would be on what side — but there is no scenario in which the U.S. would not be able to maintain escalation dominance. Iran can do many things to hurt the United States, its allies, and its interests — in fact is already active in Iraq and elsewhere. But Iran will have to calculate whether a demonstration of their unconventional power will be worth the risk of a full scale demonstration of U.S. conventional force. In this vein, witness Syria’s response to Israel’s raid on their nuclear facility last September. We’re still waiting for it.

I have no idea whether any of these reports of imminent action are true. But as the various clocks keep ticking, the strategic logic of active counter-proliferation against Iran becomes more compelling. The U.S. may act, Israel may act, or not. We will know soon enough, one way or the other.

What do I really think? Armageddon is still a way off, regardless of what some of the cyber-sabre rattlers think.

Armageddon, attack Iran, De Telegraaf, Haaretz

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With the release of papers of former DCI Richard Helms, we learn that before the 1973 Yom Kippur War (and after the Munich Massacre), Henry Kissinger instructed the CIA to maintain contact with Arafat, even after the kidnapping and murder of the U.S. Ambassador and his deputy in Khartoum, Sudan.

The released documents cover the period of 1973-1976 when Helms was the U.S. Ambassador to Iran (following his six year stint as Director of the CIA) and show:

● an Egyptian effort to have the U.S. through Iranian channels plead with Israel to withdraw to 1967 boundaries

● a proposal by the Shah of Iran for Egypt to limit their actions to an artillary barrage on Israeli positions in the Suez rather than an invasion

In a telegram Helms sent Kissinger - then Richard Nixon’s National Security Advisor - on July 5, 1973, Helms reported that King Hussein of Jordan told him that Jordanian intelligence had learned of a Syrian attack to recapture the Golan Heights originally planned for June, that had been delayed but could take place at any time soon. One of the Jordanian intelligence sources was the commander of a Syrian armored brigade, and the Jordanians had obtained a copy of the battle plans, which had been coordinated with Egypt and Iraq.

Additionally, Ali Hassan Salameh who was head of the Fatah security apparatus and commander of the Black September group, apparently met with Robert Ames of the CIA, knowing of Salameh’s involvement on the Sudan assassinations. Salameh asked about Nixon Administration intentions toward the PLO, and told Ames that they were planning to remove Jordanian King Hussein and establish a Palestinian homeland in Jordan. The Nixon government response was that it would assist in negotiations but not support the toppling of existing governments. Arafat also threatened Lebanon, apparently claiming that he would burn Beirut to the ground if Lebanon acted against the Palestinians.

Not negotiate with terrorists? But no one can know how the World would have evolved if…

Black September, Egypt, Fatah, Kissinger, Lebanon, Nixon, Richard Helms, Yom Kippur War

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Not only should we have seen it coming, but its all about the oil.  OK, sure, Putin wants to flex the Russian bear’s muscles, but its oil, its economics, and its another instance of shortsightedness in World affairs.

First, the missed signals and the opportunity to have acted sooner (rather than the later…in this case, the “cow/bear is out of the barn”). Anne Applebaum from the Washington Post once again and very pointedly describes the core issue in A Threat Explodes In Georgia.

Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular “frozen” conflict has escalated right now.

Most importantly (read the whole article please) is this:

In any case, the time to deal with this conflict is not now but was two, or even four, years ago. For a very long time it has been clear that there was a security vacuum in the Caucasus; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not emerge well from a confrontation; and that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas and, above all, the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement. And now it may be too late.

This is the very same Anne Applebaum whom I quoted in a previous post on June 9, 2007:

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

Now, about the motivations and “its the oil stupid!” As I observed the other day in Uncle Vlad, etc.:

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa. But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union. I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

In an event likely to be related to the Russian invasion of Ossetia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was struck by PKK (Kurdish Workers Party):

The BTC pipeline was hit by an explosion on Turkish territory on Aug. 5, two days before the conflict began over the South Ossetia region and the oil flow had halted. Turkish officials and the operator company, BP, had said the line was not affected by the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

AND (IMPORTANTLY)

An adviser to the Russian parliament also claimed the closed pipeline would not be opened again and declared the line is “dead”.

“The world and countries in the region have seen that not NATO, but Russia is the only one who could secure the energy routes,” Alexander Dugin, international politics advisor to the Russia’s Duma, told Turkish Cumhuriyet daily.

“In this context, regarding Turkey’s energy politics, it should be said that the BTC is not running at the moment and it will not run again.”

Have you any doubts? Consider this. I don’t work for the gov’t or any analyst group (although I do write “real” articles elsewhere). Why is it so clear (and has been for quite some time) to me that Russia through Putin’s aspirations was about to re-assert itself, when the Administration, even as recently as this week, can say that the times of the Cold War are over? Don’t believe this? Here:

“The cold war is over,” President Bush declared Friday, but a new era of enmity between the United States and Russia has emerged nevertheless. It may not be as tense as the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, for now, but it could become as strained.

Russia’s military offensive into Georgia has shattered, perhaps irrevocably, the strategy of three successive presidential administrations to coax Russia into alliance with the West and integration into its institutions.

Cold War over? Think again! But, President Bush at his Crawford Ranch and elsewhere has said of Putin, “I call him Vladimir.”

Its so plain and simple…as written in the NY Post article, Raping Georgia:

The Kremlin is determined to break Georgia’s will - and keep the feisty republic out of NATO.

Russia, you see, still believes it’s entitled to all of its former empire. And, tragically, “Old Europe” is back: Yesterday, Germany and other nervous European states bought the Russian line that Georgia is the aggressor. Wouldn’t want to anger Moscow…

While we see Russian tanks and aggression, it is, ultimately, about oil and economics, and about Uncle Vladimir re-asserting the power and influence of the once (and future) “mighty Russian bear” as a pseudo-Super Power. Other material available in Right Truth’s discussion of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, here.

Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan oil pipeline, U.S. State Dept.

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Reality to many is that the World has returned to great instability, although there some among “us” who have known all along that GWOT was intertwined with Global Politics. The question I have is why “we” (our government) are suprised by any of this!

So, what have we got? Long past, I wrote about Uncle Vlad’s desire to re-establish some semblance of the old Soviet Union. Certainly not with the trappings of Soviet Communism. It doesn’t matter, well maybe it does. A Russian form of capitalism, or the oligarchic structure could offer more complex issues for an insensitive U.S. government. What was it, just a few months ago when “all seeing and all knowing” Condoleeza Rice said, “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” That was February 21, 2007 for whoever is watching and listening. WTF?

And back on January 1, 2008 I wrote:

At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation. Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now. Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility. Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

My Xmas Eve statement was this, Iranian Reactor to Open in 2008:

I believe that we (the Bush Administration) continue to underestimate the renewed power and intentions of Vladimir Putin. Yet, according to one publication, The BulletinOnline, this helps the cause of non-proliferation. The thinking here is that if Russia supplies the HEU to Iran and removes the material, then Iran will not continue its own development, and the uses of the fuel will be more controlled. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir and Ahmadinejad.

- AND -

One must ask the serious question is we are watching as this is happening, and what we are planning to do. These deals are being couched as economic and trade…not offensive. Clearly, the Russian bear is revived, and the situation bears watching in 2008 as one of the critical International and National security issues. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir.

In October 2007, I wrote, Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing

Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet. There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.” The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t.

[SKIP]

Putin is not bluffing.  He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat?  I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”).  I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)

FOLLOW THESE POSTS TO SEE:
Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…

DEAR READERS, I am but an observer and interpreter, I am not an analyst in the true sense of the word. But someone needs to be asking the very obvious WTF questions of those who are!

We are seeing a re-emergence of the old Soviet model. Instead of communsim, we have their form of capitalism, along with Putin’s interpretation of old KGB tactics. Implications?

- Russian influence on peaceful settlement of any Mideast conflict
- geopolitical control or influence by U.S. vewrsus Russia in Central Asia is in play
- will NATO continue its role in Afghanistan (withdrawal could further destabilize region)
- what role will Russia have in that region?
- a reinstatement of a cold war like mentality between middle Europe (land locked) versus ocean states

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa.  But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union.  I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

And what of “cousin Pervez?” He is likely to be impeached or otherwise removed from his position as President. This instability shouldn’t be tolerable, but somehow…

Ahmadinejad, Musharraf, Putin

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Despite all of the “security” and worries over terror threats at the Beijing Olympics, relatives of the US Men’s Volleyball coach were attacked by a knife wielding Chinese man who fatally stabbed the husband and wounded the wife and Chinese guide at a tourist site in downtown Beijing.

The attacker then jumped to his death from the second story of the Drum Tower, an ancient structure in the heart of Beijing which was used to tell time in the Imperial era.

The dramatic killing cast a shadow over the first full day of Olympic competition. The attack occurred despite an overwhelming security presence in the city, and marred the Chinese government’s efforts to showcase the country as open and welcoming to foreigners.

The victims are Todd and Barbara Bachman, the parents of former U.S. women’s volleyball player Elisabeth “Wiz” Bachman, according to a member of the team’s delegation who asked not to be identified because no official statements were being given. The Bachmans are from Minnesota. Wiz Bachman, a member of the 2004 Olympic team, is married to Hugh McCutcheon, the coach of the men’s team.

The attacker’s National ID card (China has them) identified the attacker as Tang Yongming, a 47-year-old man from the eastern city of Hangzhou in Zhejiang province.

Although Beijing is a city of 17 million, its streets are generally safe and few residents fear walking alone even in the middle of the night.

It is illegal for private Chinese citizens to own guns.

Still, there are regular reports of violent incidents throughout the country by people who lash out in frustration over government corruption or injustice. For example, a man who was angry over a rough police interrogation in Shanghai recently walked into the station and stabbed and killed six police officers and wounded four others.

Attacks against tourists are rare, but the U.S. embassy has warned they are on the rise.

Just random violence? Or is it an example of things to come? The Chinese government can hardly afford to have street violence mar their Olympics.

Bachman, Beijing Olympics

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Normally, I don’t quote such a “laudable” news source as the WorldNet Daily, but in this exceptional case, they have admitted that the conspiratorial NAU is a “dead dream.” Now is the time for all of those who sprung into action to stop something that never was, to step up and admit they had chased a demon of a different color.

The Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America is dead, says Robert A. Pastor, the American University professor who for more than a decade has been a major proponent of building a North American Community.

Whether or not the SPP is dead or not is still in question. Mutual cooperation between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico is a desireable, if not currently advisable goal. However, it is the truth, now, as it has been before, for all of the “heavy lifters” to come to their senses (these are the people who insisted that North American Union was going to happen, that U.S. sovereignty was going to be obliterated by the Council for Foreign Relations, or that the “plan” was designed to enable free transit across our already porous border with Mexico) to own up to the reality that they were wrong!

“The April summit meeting was probably the last hurrah for the SPP,” Pastor wrote, referring to the fourth annual SPP meeting held in April in New Orleans.

According to Pastor, bureaucracy has prevented to attainment of this “dream.”

PULEEZ! The White Paper published by the Council for Foreign Relations was a “think-piece.” It wasn’t a statement of policy, hidden or otherwise. Unfortunately, some people took it as a given (question: did they know what a “think-piece” is?).

Stormwarning - speaking…well, #!@&!^Q(*.

debunking the North American Union

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The overly simplistic outlooks expressed by “the many” who see our victory vs al Qaeda in Iraq in a vacuum, without noting the “ebb and flow” of a morphing terrorism reveals an implausible blindness to the realities of the GWOT. While celebrating the handover of more provinces in Iraq to the post-Provisional government, lost is the view that al Qaeda and the like see none of the West’s boundaries pencil drawn on maps.

Yes, even as MSNBC declares that al Qaeda is less relevant to the outcome in Iraq, stating that while they haven’t been eliminated entirely, they are less of a threat, what of related areas of conflict, and what happens after the surge? And yes, as you will read in Amy Proctor’s article, Kuwait has opened diplomatic relations with Iraq. Yes, that is significant. And still, I have that nagging “yeah, but” feeling.

Even as it is noted that insurgents in Iraq are “giving up the fight,” the reports of al Qaeda redeploying their forces to Afghanistan, reopening that front in the GWOT, and worse, importing foreign fighters from Turkey, Central Asia, Chechnya and the Middle East, we cannot consider the victory in the now relative skirmish in Iraq to be a sign that we can allow our guard to go down. In fact, with the fresh influx of al Qaeda/Taliban troops to Afghanistan, I fear that we shall once again turn our attention to the once “won” war in Afghanistan.

There are at least two issues which are ignored by those who believe that victory in Iraq is more significant than it is…victory in Iraq which I believe can truly only be declared after the post-Provisional government there is stable and is able to not only provide security, but also reliable services to their people, cannot be determined in simple terms of turning over control to the Iraqis, or even by troop withdrawals by the U.S. The first, is the continuing instability in the north of Iraq where the Turks and Kurds continue to battle. Even without al Qaeda in Iraq, the region remains dangerously unstable.

The second, and probably more significant, issue is that al Qaeda is not a government, or maybe even not an organization. It is a system, and a very adaptable one at that. So, as with the ebb and flow of the sands on an ocean beach, moving ever so slowly with the tides, shifting from one place to the next, often seeing a particular beach grow by ten yards, while two others shrink in size, al Qaeda, a system and methodology of terrorism based on the jihad, continues to morph. Thus, the influence of foreign fighters must be considered.

The Small Wars Journal posted an interesting “interim” report titled, “Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan.”

The data demonstrates that Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen produce the most foreign fighters per Muslim, each averaging from four to eight times as many fighters as the average rate for the twenty countries analyzed. The second tier of foreign fighter producers consists of Kuwait, Syria, Tunisia, and Jordan. While all second tier countries produced less than half as many fighters as the top tier producers, they still produced more than the twenty-country average.

In the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio discusses that the attack at the Nuristan base on July 13th in Afghniastan was a complicated operation in which 200-500 Taliban took over an adjacent village before attacking. Here is a long but key quote:

The assault on the Wanat outpost was conducted by an alliance of extremist groups operating in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to reports. A senior Afghan defense official told Al Jazeera that “various anti-government factions including Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Hezb-i-Islami faction were involved” in the strike.

Tamim Nuristani, who served as governor of Nuristan before President Hamid Karzai relieve him of his post for criticizing a US airstrike that is thought to have killed Afghan civilians, said Taliban and Pakistani groups banded together for the attack. “The (attackers) were not only from Nuristan but from other districts,” Nuristani said.

“They are not only Taliban. They were (Pakistan-based) Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hezb-i-Islami, Taliban and those people who are dissatisfied with the (Karzai) government after these recent incidents,” Nuristani said, intimating the attack was revenge for the US airstrike. “They all came together for this one.”

And then Roggio discusses the mounting of U.S. troops on the border with Pakistan, returing fire of the Taliban fighters. Another quote, discussing the border:

Tensions along the ill-defined, rugged border have escalated since the Pakistani government initiated its latest round of peace accords with the Taliban and allied extremists in the tribal areas and settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province.

Some people’s mistaken belief that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq is more than a minor victory in the much longer war against Islamic extremism is naive in my opinion. Further, to not see the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq as much more than pushing the bully to another part of the playground is a dangerous outlook.

It must not be forgotten that al Qaeda will morph and shift and change as is required to adapt in the various skirmishes. Doug Farah discussed “The Morphing War Against Al Qaeda in Iraq” last February.

The point is that, while there seems to be little doubt that the al Qaeda-linked groups in Iraq are hurt, the next iteration of the groups may make them even harder to get at.

Perhaps celebrate the “victory” in Iraq (when it is actually time to do so). But do not try to convince me, or others who know more than I, that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq will do nothing much more than shift their attention and their resources to other fields of battle that are softer and more vulnerable.

al Qaeda, morphing, State Department

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Considering the US Navy exercise (Exercise Stake Net Protects Persian Gulf) it should come as no surprise that the Iranians test fired missiles.  The situation in the Gulf is unquestionably tense and dangerous…the real question is what happens next (”who blinks”).

One day after threatening to strike Tel Aviv and United States interests if attacked, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were reported on Wednesday to have test-fired nine missiles, including one which Tehran claims has the range to reach Israel.

Everyone, STAND-DOWN! Stand-down, especially those who desire the “end-game” scenario to play out. It is not “the” time!

end game scenario, Exercise Stake Net, missile test fire, Persian Gulf, Straits of Hormuz

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Startling disclosure in an intercepted email from an imprisoned Ghanaian. The man is in prison for smuggling East Africans into the US, supposedly for economic reasons (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan). Officials are concerned that terrorists could use the same channels.

In the 12 months that ended last Sept. 30, U.S. officials caught 372 East Africans trying to get into the country, the assessment said. This is the most from these countries since the Homeland Security Department was formed in 2003. And 159 people from the same countries have been caught trying to enter since Oct. 1 - including 138 from Eritrea, far more than any other country in the Horn of Africa.

Apparently one illegal channel is closed, another is opened.

Mohammed Kamel Ibrahim, a 26-year-old Ghana citizen living in Mexico known as “Silk the Shocker,” wrote in an Oct. 24, 2006, e-mail to an associate that he would have no problem smuggling somebody into the United States.

“I will pay my immigration friend 2 days before he comes so that he can be waiting for him immediately he gets out of the flight. that way there is no questioning,” Ibrahim wrote in the same e-mail.

Its not just Mexicans. Preferred routes include:

East Africa ===> Johannesburg, South Africa ===> Sao Paulo, Brazil
East Africa ===> flew from Abu Dhabi, Dubai, or Rome to Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela

The smugglers have access to fake and real Belizean, Bolivian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian and South African visas.

Its not just Mexicans, now is it? Technology may be one way to help stop or slow this. However, Janice Kephart, former counsel to the Sept. 11 Commission said, “They do what they need to based on what their end goal is.”

East Africa, human smuggling, other than Mexicans

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After Iran made noise about blocking the Straits of Hormuz if it was attacked, the US Navy mounted an exercise, “Stake Net” to show our resolve in keeping the shipping lanes open.

Two U.S. vessels were taking part in the exercise alongside a British warship and one from Bahrain, a Gulf Arab ally which hosts the Fifth Fleet. “Stake Net seeks to help ensure a lawful maritime order as well as improve relationships between regional partners,” the fleet’s statement said.

The exercise included ships from the UK and Bahrain. Noted as Combined Task Force 152.

Coalition units participating in the exercise include the dock landing ship Pearl Harbor, frigate Curts, the HMS Montrose, the Bahraini guided-missile patrol craft Al-Taweelah and other regional navies.

So, the regional game of chess continues. Will diplomacy and war games win out over “happy trigger finger” conservatives? Lets hope so.

In “Appeasers make poor patriots,” The Right Truth discusses the potential Iran-Israel “end-game” scenario.  Further, that post draws a Chamberlainesque parallel between today’s World stage and that of 1936-38.  I do not agree with that comparison.  Further, I do not believe that attempting to negotiate a path forward to avoid nuclear conflagration and holocaust in Israel is wrong.    But negotiation is not appeasement. That is not to say that war and conflict is not an option, because it is.  I realize that taking this position opens me to accusations that I am an appeaser, or worse, that I am a “poor patriot.”  Of course, that would be simple drivel.

The World is a dangerous place… One of the dangers of the Internet is that in the blogosphere, people, even well-intended, profer opinions that are dangerous, and yet, people read them and then appropriate them as their own.  To judge someone’s patriotism by their outlook on World events is wrong…simply wrong.

Bahrain, Combined Task Force 152, Exercise Stake Net, State Department, Straits of Hormuz

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Deadliest attack in Kabul since the first “fall of the Taliban;” worst car bombing in Afghanistan since 100 died at dog fight in Kandahar in February 08. A vehicle born IED killed at least 40 people at the Indian mission in Kabul, among them were 4 stated to be Indian nationals (including the Indian Defence Attache, a Counsellor-level diplomat and two security guards).

This was apparently a targeted attack against the Indian minister with the other deaths being labeled as “collateral.”

There has been a sharp increase in acts of terrorism in Afghanistan since the new Government headed by Yousef Raza Gilani assumed office in Islamabad in the last week of March, 2008. NATO officers in Afghanistan have spoken of a 40 per cent increase in the infiltration of jihadi terrorists from the tribal belt of Pakistan into Afghanistan since the new Pakistani Government suspended military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and entered into peace negotiations with them. Even as acts of terrorism—-including suicide terrorism— have increased in Afghan territory, there has been a sharp decrease in acts of suicide terrorism in Pakistani territory. This indicates that the new Government has made a deal with the Taliban allowing it to operate freely in Afghanistan in return for its stepping down its operations in Pakistani territory.

For pictures and a video of the gory details click on the links.

Let us recognize the point of what is meant by a “Long War.” The enemy has long patience. We do not. The enemy infiltrates places and organizations where we cannot (we don’t look like “them”). If you think for one second that the Taliban is defunct, kaput! or dead, you know nothing of the “Long War.” Even with great losses of troops and men, the Taliban, the jihadists, al Qaeda is resilient. Do you believe for one minute that our Defense Department or our State Department is not aware of this?

Department of Defense, Kabul, neo Taliban, U.S. State Department, VBIED

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Whatever “yellow cake” Saddam possessed is now in Canada. With the shipment of 550 metric tons of the stuff through the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia in a secret U.S. mission, its now all in Canada.

The Iraqi government sold the yellowcake to a Canadian uranium producer, Cameco Corp., in a transaction the official described as worth “tens of millions of dollars.” A Cameco spokesman, Lyle Krahn, declined to discuss the price, but said the yellowcake will be processed at facilities in Ontario for use in energy-producing reactors.

“We are pleased … that we have taken (the yellowcake) from a volatile region into a stable area to produce clean electricity,” he said.

It took over a year, and 37 military flights to Diego Garcia, and then a U.S. flagged ocean voyage that left the island on June 3rd to the unnamed Canadian port. Now, remains the task of cleaning up the Iraqi storage at the Tuwaitha nuclear complex about 12 miles south of Baghdad. Tuwaitha is apparently not the only “hot spot” that needs remediation.

Saddam, Tuwaitha, yellow cake, yellowcake

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It continues to confound that many have already placed flowers on the Taliban grave. Somehow, there is a continuing sense that because one newspaper or another has claimed that the Taliban has been defeated in Afghanistan, then it is fact. It also goes without saying that anyone who disputes that conclusion is (*)…

Navy Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said insurgent Taliban and extremist forces in Afghanistan have become “a very complex problem,” one that is tied to the extensive drug trade, a faltering economy and the porous border with Pakistan. Violence in Afghanistan has increased markedly in recent weeks, with June the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers since the war began in 2001.

“I don’t have troops I can reach for, brigades I can reach to send into Afghanistan until I have a reduced requirement in Iraq,” Mullen told reporters at the Pentagon. “Afghanistan has been and remains an economy-of-force campaign, which by definition means we need more forces there.”

(*) anti-American, anti-troops, a Democrat, a liberal, “daft,” or somehow otherwise incapable of critical thinking.

The commentary of anti-this, or anti-that, reflects not on the person who disputes the conclusion that the Taliban is defunct, but on those who rashly reach a conclusion based on one biased source or another. More troops are needed in Afghanistan. When we ceded control of the actions in Afghanistan to NATO, my opinion is that we abandoned the military mission in that country. Others, one notable blogger, contends that the 18000 troops in Afghanistan under NATO guidance is not an abandonment.

Bullshit!

Admital Mullen, Taliban

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