StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

When I wrote that the situation in Burma would get worse before it got better, I didn’t expect that the military junta would start stealing the relief food and equipment to sell it for their own benefit. As a result, the UN suspended operations. This comes after the military government agreed to receive aid but not allow relief workers to enter the country.

“Myanmar is not in a position to receive rescue and information teams from foreign countries at the moment,” the statement, from the Foreign Ministry, said. “But at present Myanmar is giving priority to receiving relief aid and distributing it to the storm-hit regions with its own resources.”

The human tragedy could reach 100,000 dead. If there was ever a reason to take action to topple a repressive government, this situation should warrant it. But who?

“The situation is profoundly worrying,” said Mr. Holmes, the United Nations official in charge of the relief effort, speaking in unusually candid language for a diplomat. “They have simply not facilitated access in the way we have a right to expect.”

Mr. Holmes’s predecessor in that job, Jan Egeland, said, “children are going to die from diarrhea because of this government’s inaction.”

In what can only be seen as more “window dressing,” it seems that the National Consitutional Referendum will proceed this weekend.

A nationwide referendum on a draft constitution will be held in Myanmar on Saturday as scheduled, with people across the country set to go to poll, except those residing in the declared natural-disaster-hit regions.

As 40 townships in Yangon division and 7 in the southwestern Ayeyawaddy division are under declared natural-disaster-hit regions status, ballot casting in these areas is postponed to a fortnight later on May 24.

The diaster areas represent 13 of the 57 million voters in the country. Something is wrong here.

IMO, it is times like this that a truly global body would act decisively and move to save the children of this country…and while they’re at it, assassinate the entire group of military “leaders.”

Constitutional Referendum, food shipments, myanmar

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The devastation caused by Nature in Myanmar is beyond comprehension.  It is now estimated that over 22,000 people have died and more than 40,000 are missing.  Thousands more have been displaced or injured.  And at the same time, the military dictatorship is seemingly unmoved by the human tragedy.

An “eyewitness” (unconfirmed, but likely) reported:

“It looks like the end of the world here,” he shouted into the telephone when he finally got a call through to Singapore on Tuesday morning and could talk about the situation in Rangoon after Cyclone Nargis wreaked havoc on the city. “Everything is destroyed, we have no drinking water and nothing to eat. Tens of thousands must be dead. Hundreds of thousands are homeless.”

And what is the government doing in response?

“They’re clearing the streets in the rich neighborhoods,” the dissident said. Then the line went dead.

The phone lines are out…television and photographs of the destruction are inconsistently released. The military junta has no real control over the situation and clearly has no ability to deal with the disaster. At first, Myanmar refused help…they are essentially paranoid of outsiders. Now, it seems that the military dictatorship is willing to take help from their non-threatening neighbor, Thailand.

Whether or not the United Nations has any influence in this situation, or even if they will be effective, the UN has urged the junta to accept aid.

Updated reports now project as many as 60,000 people will fall victim to Cyclone Nargis. In addition, the United States has offered help.

“Let the United States come help you help the people,” U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday as he signed legislation lauding Myanmar’s opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner who is under house arrest. “We want to do a lot more.”

This is an emerging story. It will get worse before it gets better. The human tragedy in a country that is already one of the World’s poorest nations is simply horrible.

What is the difference between a hurricane, tornado and cylcone? More general information.

For “another take” on the tragedy in Myanmar, see Right Truth’s entry.

Cyclone Nargis, junta, myanmar

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Anyone who has spent time reading my ramblings already knows that I have maintained a dismal outlook for Afghanistan’s future.  In the past, I’ve chronicled my debate with “NATO-guy” who claimed that NATO had the situation under control (not!).  And consistently, I’ve expressed my serious concern that Afghanistan was on the brink.  I am far from the only one who saw this coming.  Today, Doug Farah’s post at the Counterterrorism Blog, NATO and Afghanistan-The Cost of Failure, expresses my thoughts.  Farah also covers this more deeply on his own blog here.

Looking at the beginning and the end of this post:

Few in NATO, including U.S. leaders, appear willing to face the fact that the war in Afghanistan is growing to be one of the longest in our history and could be one of the costliest. Not just in economic terms, but because no one has been willing to commit the resources to win the war, despite the fact it was nearly won four years ago. The cost of not finishing the job is staggering.

AND

Pakistan, a nuclear nation, and Afghanistan, are really where al Qaeda and radical Islam are entrenched. It is, in my opinion, where the next attack will originate from, and should be of equal worry to Europe. If the senior al Qaeda leadership are safe enough there not to have to be on the move, what is to stop them?

Worried about the future? I am! The facts have shown from the beginning that the job in Afghanistan was left undone when our resources were diverted to Iraq. And yet, I supported and continue to support the removal of Hussein and his sons from power in Iraq and believe, despite the recent Basra/Baghdad battles.  Afterall, I’m “just” an observer.  Making these decisions is way above my pay grade…in fact, since I’m not a government employee, I don’t have a pay grade.

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Avoiding a future deep impact syndrome…with the shooting down of the U.S. Spy Satellite, the question of dealing with a real life “Deep Impact” (1998), students in the Technion Institute’s Faculty of Aerospace Engineering recently developed a model for deflecting heavenly bodies that could damage Earth.  The model was developed out of fear that an asteroid (Apophis) could collide with Earth in 2036.

In the 1998 movie, “Deep Impact,” Robert Duvall sacrificed his life and his crew in a successful effort to destroy the larger of the two asteroids — The Technion model was been created and was presented at a competition of NASA and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.  The plan?  Here’s a depiction of the spacecraft.

Check out the paper.

Apophis, Deep Impact, roids, Technion Institute

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There have been at least 10 mass-casualty suicide attacks in Iraq involved explosives attached to chlorine canisters. Now, an undercover operation conducted in NY City shows how easy it would be for terrorists to acquire large quantities of chlorine in the U.S.

Undercover police recently set up a fake company and then showed how easy it was for a terrorist to purchase chlorine on the Internet if they wanted to mount a deadly chemical strike against the city.

A videotape — presented Wednesday at a briefing of private security executives — discloses the results of Operation Green Cloud.

AP reports that the purpose was “to assess the ease or difficulty with which a terrorist in the United States could acquire large quantities of chlorine without being detected by law enforcement or intelligence agencies,” a narrator says on a copy of the video. The conclusion: “At the present time, few if any barriers stand in his way.”

Sounds pretty serious. Some people are minimizing the implications of Operation Green Cloud.  I don’t know why or how anyone could “poo-poo” the threat.

chlorine attacks, mass casualty suicide attacks, Operation Green Cloud

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Okay, so this is probably a bit beyond general reach (its a bit out of my realm too, although I’ve listened intently to a few presentation and discussions on vector borne diseases).  But researchers at Southampton University (UK) have developed a computer model to simulate the transmission of infectious diseases between people. [actually archiving this for future use and reference]

While some of this may seem “no duh” or obvious, the implications are actually pretty important, especially if anyone out there is actually interested or concerned about the possible spread of H5N1 (thats the Avian Bird Flu in case you’re not familiar)…

 ’Areas with large population densities increase the probability of intimate contact between people. Simulating the transmission of infectious disease transmission within urban areas is, thus, of great importance,’ said Prof Yong Yang.

The model is known as the Individual Space-Time Activity-based Model (a model for the simulation of airborne infectious disease transmission by activity-bundle simulation)…a pretty analytical but interesting presentation of the model is shown here.

Individual Space Time Activity based Model, Modeling the Spread of Disease, Prof. Yong Yang, simulation

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“Tornados, floods, fires, blackouts and manmade disasters such as cyberattacks can all have devastating consequences, but having a plan in place can minimize the impact of a disaster.”  Thanks to the Comcare Alliance for this information.

AT&T 2007 Business Continuity Study (www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=7922)

30 % of businesses across the country are still not prepared for the worst case scenario.

Of the 10 cities surveyed this year, businesses in New York ranked first in terms of being the most prepared for natural and man-made disasters, while businesses in Cleveland came in last.

24% of companies surveyed suffered from a natural or manmade disaster. Causes for these include: 

• 11% blackouts
• 6% hurricanes
• 5% cyber attacks
• 5% floods
• 5% extreme weather or snow

77% of companies that experienced a disaster increase the priority they place on business preparedness. 

• 90% include cyber security in their plans
• 78% educate employees
• 76% define corporate security policies
• 41% take action when a government alert is issued

1 out of 7 executives indicate that preparedness is not a priority
13% of executives claim that the probability of disaster is too small

Loss of Data (National Archives & Records Administration)

U.S. businesses lose over $12 billion per year because of data loss. This loss is due to: 

• 78% hardware or system failures
• 11% human errors 
• 7% software corruption 
• 1% natural disasters

93% of companies that lost their data center for 10 days or more due to a disaster filed for bankruptcy within one year of the disaster.
50% of businesses that found themselves without data management for this same time period filed for bankruptcy immediately.

Computer Security Breaches (ID Theft Resource Center)

In 2005, there were at least 151 reported breaches have exposed more than 57.7 million Americans to potential ID theft.

Currently 35 states require companies to publicly disclose security breaches involving personal information, such as credit card data and Social Security numbers.

Treasury Department’s Office of Technical Assistance estimates cybercrime proceeds in 2004 were $105 billion, greater than those of illegal drug.

In 2005 and 2006, DHS itself suffered 844 cybersecurity incidents

Visit http://www.ready.gov for more information. Business Preparedness means developing a business continuity plan, testing and updating the plan at least annually, educating employees, establishing redundant servers and backup sites to protect continuous operations, and having processes in place to take action when the federal or state government issues an alert.

all hazards, busines spreparedness, business continuity, disaster. COMCARE Alliance

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