StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

All together now. “The Taliban is dead and defeated.” “Afghanistan has never been better.” At least sixty people died in the massive truck bombing at the Marriott in Islamabad. There are some who think that President Zardari was the target. It is being called “Pakistan’s 9/11.”

New reports now suggest that the Danish Intelligence (maybe not CIA) was the target. Some of the “smart money” is that the real targets were CIA officers staying at the hotel. It actually matters little to the now nearly 100 people killed. Was it the CIA or the Danish Intelligence forces? We may not know for a while, if ever. One thing is certain. It is imperative to know that al Qaeda is not dead or defunct, and just because they have not struck in the United States in seven years does not mean that they will not at some point, and that they will continue to strike elsewhere with near impunity.

Pakistan is about to fall apart. Afghanistan is on the way. And the Taliban is alive and well. And oh! The line between the Taliban and al Qaeda is about as thin as a “cat’s hair.”

CIA, Islamabad bombing, Taliban, Zardari

7 Comments »

Obama…Palin, ad nauseum. I have written about it for months. Maybe now, as Pakistan devolves and Afghanistan unravels, perhaps, people will see.

Pakistan has warned the US that if our troops cross the border in pursuit of al Qaeda/Taliban, it will open fire.

Pakistan’s military has ordered its forces to open fire if U.S. troops launch another air or ground raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said Tuesday.

The orders, which come in response to a highly unusual Sept. 3 ground attack by U.S. commandos, are certain to heighten tensions between Washington and a key ally against terrorism. Although the ground attack was rare, there have been repeated reports of U.S. drone aircraft striking militant targets, most recently on Sept. 12.

Try to forget who is running for VP right now. Focus on the top spot. Oh sure. John is old(er). But who is wiser?

Head of the JCoS, Admiral Mullen has assured Pakistan that the US will respect Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Are you watching? Or are “you” so caught up in a debate comparing the qualifications of a candidate for Vice President to those of a candidate for President, that you are distracted and not seeing World events, perhaps more important, unfold?

Admiral Mullen

7 Comments »

I want to speak with the “bloggers” who think that Afghanistan is out of the woods! or that the Taliban is dead and gone! Two more SEALs (members of what used to be called SEAL Team 6) died earlier this week in Afganistan on a super secret mission. Leaving behind a wife and daughter each were Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator John Wayne Marcum, 34, and Chief (select) Special Warfare Operator Jason Richard Freiwald, 30.

Two G.I.s were slain in Afghanistan Wednesday, bringing the total to 113, plus 101 other foreign troops who have died. Last year’s U.S. death toll was 111.

For any of you people who blindly wave a flag and think that it makes you patriotic, recognize the following:

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress Tuesday: “I’m not convinced we’re winning in Afghanistan.”

Hat-tip to CTB (again) for the top notch posts.

Killed last week were Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator John Wayne Marcum, 34, and Chief (select) Special Warfare Operator Jason Richard Freiwald, 30, the Navy said. Each man had served in Iraq and Afghanistan and was a highly decorated SEAL. Before Harris, no DEVGRU SEAL had fallen in Afghanistan since March 2002, according to a review of Operation Enduring Freedom deaths at iCasualties.org.

This War on Terror is far from over. Anyone who thinks that a few positive press releases makes a victory is simply ignorant.

Chief (select) Special Warfare Operator Jason Richard Freiwald, SEAL Team 6, Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator John Wayne Marcum

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Wake Up! There is no doubt in my feable mind that when I wrote Losing Afghanistan (Reduxed Again) nearly 10 months ago that I either guessed really well, or I was simply, right! I vote for “right.” This position is supported by Doug Farah’s post, “Trying to Get it Right in Afghanistan, and Ignoring the Elephant in the Room”

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, has sounded the alarm on Afghanistan, correctly pointing out that the danger of losing there is real and the hour is late.

It is fitting, on this day, to remember that our collective inability to get Afghanistan right once before helped give our enemies the opportunity to plan and execute the 9/11 attacks that are being remembered today.

What is striking about the published reports of Mullen and Defense Secretary Gates is the absence of any discussion of one of the driving forces of the Taliban’s mounting success: its access to tens of millions of dollars in opium and poppy money. The UN conservatively estimates the Taliban makes between $50 million and $70 million a year from the drug trade.

Oh, sure, some of my supposed counterterrorism blogger cohorts might offer a different view. Of course, it has been argued more than once before that Afghanistan was on the road to recovery and democracy. My opinion has consistently been contrary to that. I’ve been accused of being unpatriotic, I’ve been accused of not supporting our troops who were acclaimed as having been victorious against the “defeated” Taliban, and for my point of view, I have been called a “librul.”

Still, Afghanistan remains on the brink. Hamid Karzai has an attitude that may only be solved by his assassination. To stop this very real resurgence of the Taliban, their supply of money needs to be chopped off.

If the US and NATO is serious about improving the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s money stream must be cut off. That stream is heavily dependent on opium. Ignoring that reality is not a policy.

History repeats. Sometimes we have the ability to stop it. Other times, we ignore the obvious. If you’re at all interested in reading further, you can review some of the historical Storm posts on the subject of Losing Afghanistan. Its time to open your eyes…unless you want to be “surprised” in a few months by events as they evolve.

Losing Afghanistan, poppy trade, Taliban

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For a guy who I continue to believe lives only because the War(drug)lords allow him to live, Hamid Karzai has a big set of balls. He is now blaming the British for the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Some people may think they were, but the truth is that they were never gone.

Karzai claims Brown has threatened to withdraw British troops from Helmand province, where 31 of them have died this year, if the president reinstates two provincial governors sacked for alleged dealings in the heroin trade.

I simply cannot accept this “brain fart” from Hamid. The Taliban is still alive because (hold onto your hats my friends), because WE allowed them to live.

All of this “happy talk” about Afghanistan emerging as a free democracy is and was crap! If you actually doubt the consistency of my beliefs and position of this, please read this search of Storm Blog on the key words of losing Afghanistan.” Then since you insist, just check out any discussion of the Durand Line or the ways in which the Pakistanis have negotiated with the Taliban in the Northwest Tribal Regions. IMO, Karzai is a damn lucky man to still be alive!

Karzai, Taliban

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Not only should we have seen it coming, but its all about the oil.  OK, sure, Putin wants to flex the Russian bear’s muscles, but its oil, its economics, and its another instance of shortsightedness in World affairs.

First, the missed signals and the opportunity to have acted sooner (rather than the later…in this case, the “cow/bear is out of the barn”). Anne Applebaum from the Washington Post once again and very pointedly describes the core issue in A Threat Explodes In Georgia.

Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular “frozen” conflict has escalated right now.

Most importantly (read the whole article please) is this:

In any case, the time to deal with this conflict is not now but was two, or even four, years ago. For a very long time it has been clear that there was a security vacuum in the Caucasus; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not emerge well from a confrontation; and that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas and, above all, the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement. And now it may be too late.

This is the very same Anne Applebaum whom I quoted in a previous post on June 9, 2007:

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

Now, about the motivations and “its the oil stupid!” As I observed the other day in Uncle Vlad, etc.:

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa. But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union. I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

In an event likely to be related to the Russian invasion of Ossetia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was struck by PKK (Kurdish Workers Party):

The BTC pipeline was hit by an explosion on Turkish territory on Aug. 5, two days before the conflict began over the South Ossetia region and the oil flow had halted. Turkish officials and the operator company, BP, had said the line was not affected by the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

AND (IMPORTANTLY)

An adviser to the Russian parliament also claimed the closed pipeline would not be opened again and declared the line is “dead”.

“The world and countries in the region have seen that not NATO, but Russia is the only one who could secure the energy routes,” Alexander Dugin, international politics advisor to the Russia’s Duma, told Turkish Cumhuriyet daily.

“In this context, regarding Turkey’s energy politics, it should be said that the BTC is not running at the moment and it will not run again.”

Have you any doubts? Consider this. I don’t work for the gov’t or any analyst group (although I do write “real” articles elsewhere). Why is it so clear (and has been for quite some time) to me that Russia through Putin’s aspirations was about to re-assert itself, when the Administration, even as recently as this week, can say that the times of the Cold War are over? Don’t believe this? Here:

“The cold war is over,” President Bush declared Friday, but a new era of enmity between the United States and Russia has emerged nevertheless. It may not be as tense as the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, for now, but it could become as strained.

Russia’s military offensive into Georgia has shattered, perhaps irrevocably, the strategy of three successive presidential administrations to coax Russia into alliance with the West and integration into its institutions.

Cold War over? Think again! But, President Bush at his Crawford Ranch and elsewhere has said of Putin, “I call him Vladimir.”

Its so plain and simple…as written in the NY Post article, Raping Georgia:

The Kremlin is determined to break Georgia’s will - and keep the feisty republic out of NATO.

Russia, you see, still believes it’s entitled to all of its former empire. And, tragically, “Old Europe” is back: Yesterday, Germany and other nervous European states bought the Russian line that Georgia is the aggressor. Wouldn’t want to anger Moscow…

While we see Russian tanks and aggression, it is, ultimately, about oil and economics, and about Uncle Vladimir re-asserting the power and influence of the once (and future) “mighty Russian bear” as a pseudo-Super Power. Other material available in Right Truth’s discussion of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, here.

Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan oil pipeline, U.S. State Dept.

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Reality to many is that the World has returned to great instability, although there some among “us” who have known all along that GWOT was intertwined with Global Politics. The question I have is why “we” (our government) are suprised by any of this!

So, what have we got? Long past, I wrote about Uncle Vlad’s desire to re-establish some semblance of the old Soviet Union. Certainly not with the trappings of Soviet Communism. It doesn’t matter, well maybe it does. A Russian form of capitalism, or the oligarchic structure could offer more complex issues for an insensitive U.S. government. What was it, just a few months ago when “all seeing and all knowing” Condoleeza Rice said, “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” That was February 21, 2007 for whoever is watching and listening. WTF?

And back on January 1, 2008 I wrote:

At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation. Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now. Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility. Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

My Xmas Eve statement was this, Iranian Reactor to Open in 2008:

I believe that we (the Bush Administration) continue to underestimate the renewed power and intentions of Vladimir Putin. Yet, according to one publication, The BulletinOnline, this helps the cause of non-proliferation. The thinking here is that if Russia supplies the HEU to Iran and removes the material, then Iran will not continue its own development, and the uses of the fuel will be more controlled. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir and Ahmadinejad.

- AND -

One must ask the serious question is we are watching as this is happening, and what we are planning to do. These deals are being couched as economic and trade…not offensive. Clearly, the Russian bear is revived, and the situation bears watching in 2008 as one of the critical International and National security issues. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir.

In October 2007, I wrote, Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing

Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet. There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.” The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t.

[SKIP]

Putin is not bluffing.  He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat?  I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”).  I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)

FOLLOW THESE POSTS TO SEE:
Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…

DEAR READERS, I am but an observer and interpreter, I am not an analyst in the true sense of the word. But someone needs to be asking the very obvious WTF questions of those who are!

We are seeing a re-emergence of the old Soviet model. Instead of communsim, we have their form of capitalism, along with Putin’s interpretation of old KGB tactics. Implications?

- Russian influence on peaceful settlement of any Mideast conflict
- geopolitical control or influence by U.S. vewrsus Russia in Central Asia is in play
- will NATO continue its role in Afghanistan (withdrawal could further destabilize region)
- what role will Russia have in that region?
- a reinstatement of a cold war like mentality between middle Europe (land locked) versus ocean states

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa.  But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union.  I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

And what of “cousin Pervez?” He is likely to be impeached or otherwise removed from his position as President. This instability shouldn’t be tolerable, but somehow…

Ahmadinejad, Musharraf, Putin

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Before anyone goes off “half cocked” about this post, make it clear in your mind that I believe that Obama is dangerous to the future of America and to the GWOT. I am simply tired as piss that people waste their time spreading falsies instead of focusing on the shortcomings of the man. Aside from any of the really good reasons to ensure that John McCain is our next President, even if for only one term…like the fact that I don’t think Obama has a clue about the GWOT and related issues, I saw this in an email tonight…

Hello everyone,
As you know I am not a very political person. I just wanted to pass along that Senator Obama came to Bagram Afghanistan for about an hour on his visit to ‘The War Zone’. I wanted to share with you what happened.

He got off the plane and got into a bullet proof vehicle, got to the area to meet with the Major General (2 Star) who is the commander here at Bagram.

As the Soldiers where lined up to shake his hand he blew them off and didn’t say a word as he went into the conference room to meet the General. As he finished, the vehicles took him to the ClamShell(pretty much a big top tent that military personnel can play basketball or work out in with weights) so he could take his publicity pictures playing basketball. He again shunned the opportunity to talk to Soldiers to thank them for their service.

So really he was just here to make a showing for the American’s back home that he is their candidate for President. I think that if you are going to make an effort to come all the way over here you would thank those that are providing the freedom that they are providing for you.

I swear we got more thanks from the NBA Basketball Players or the Dallas Cowboy Cheer leaders than from one of the Senators, who wants to be the President of the United States. I just don’t understand how anyone would want him to be our Commander-and-Chief. It was almost that he was scared to be around those that provide the freedom for him and our great country.

If this is blunt and to the point I am sorry but I wanted you all to know what kind of caliber of person he really is. What you see in the news is all fake.

In service,
CPT Jeffrey S. Porter
Battle Captain
TF Wasatch
American Soldier

There is one very serious problem here.

According to SNOPES, its FALSE!!! So spread the rumors aorund more and more. The more you do that, the more likely people will stop believing anything that is said or written about the reasons why Obama should never become President…like the boy who cried wolf.

Obama, Snopes

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The overly simplistic outlooks expressed by “the many” who see our victory vs al Qaeda in Iraq in a vacuum, without noting the “ebb and flow” of a morphing terrorism reveals an implausible blindness to the realities of the GWOT. While celebrating the handover of more provinces in Iraq to the post-Provisional government, lost is the view that al Qaeda and the like see none of the West’s boundaries pencil drawn on maps.

Yes, even as MSNBC declares that al Qaeda is less relevant to the outcome in Iraq, stating that while they haven’t been eliminated entirely, they are less of a threat, what of related areas of conflict, and what happens after the surge? And yes, as you will read in Amy Proctor’s article, Kuwait has opened diplomatic relations with Iraq. Yes, that is significant. And still, I have that nagging “yeah, but” feeling.

Even as it is noted that insurgents in Iraq are “giving up the fight,” the reports of al Qaeda redeploying their forces to Afghanistan, reopening that front in the GWOT, and worse, importing foreign fighters from Turkey, Central Asia, Chechnya and the Middle East, we cannot consider the victory in the now relative skirmish in Iraq to be a sign that we can allow our guard to go down. In fact, with the fresh influx of al Qaeda/Taliban troops to Afghanistan, I fear that we shall once again turn our attention to the once “won” war in Afghanistan.

There are at least two issues which are ignored by those who believe that victory in Iraq is more significant than it is…victory in Iraq which I believe can truly only be declared after the post-Provisional government there is stable and is able to not only provide security, but also reliable services to their people, cannot be determined in simple terms of turning over control to the Iraqis, or even by troop withdrawals by the U.S. The first, is the continuing instability in the north of Iraq where the Turks and Kurds continue to battle. Even without al Qaeda in Iraq, the region remains dangerously unstable.

The second, and probably more significant, issue is that al Qaeda is not a government, or maybe even not an organization. It is a system, and a very adaptable one at that. So, as with the ebb and flow of the sands on an ocean beach, moving ever so slowly with the tides, shifting from one place to the next, often seeing a particular beach grow by ten yards, while two others shrink in size, al Qaeda, a system and methodology of terrorism based on the jihad, continues to morph. Thus, the influence of foreign fighters must be considered.

The Small Wars Journal posted an interesting “interim” report titled, “Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan.”

The data demonstrates that Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen produce the most foreign fighters per Muslim, each averaging from four to eight times as many fighters as the average rate for the twenty countries analyzed. The second tier of foreign fighter producers consists of Kuwait, Syria, Tunisia, and Jordan. While all second tier countries produced less than half as many fighters as the top tier producers, they still produced more than the twenty-country average.

In the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio discusses that the attack at the Nuristan base on July 13th in Afghniastan was a complicated operation in which 200-500 Taliban took over an adjacent village before attacking. Here is a long but key quote:

The assault on the Wanat outpost was conducted by an alliance of extremist groups operating in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to reports. A senior Afghan defense official told Al Jazeera that “various anti-government factions including Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Hezb-i-Islami faction were involved” in the strike.

Tamim Nuristani, who served as governor of Nuristan before President Hamid Karzai relieve him of his post for criticizing a US airstrike that is thought to have killed Afghan civilians, said Taliban and Pakistani groups banded together for the attack. “The (attackers) were not only from Nuristan but from other districts,” Nuristani said.

“They are not only Taliban. They were (Pakistan-based) Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hezb-i-Islami, Taliban and those people who are dissatisfied with the (Karzai) government after these recent incidents,” Nuristani said, intimating the attack was revenge for the US airstrike. “They all came together for this one.”

And then Roggio discusses the mounting of U.S. troops on the border with Pakistan, returing fire of the Taliban fighters. Another quote, discussing the border:

Tensions along the ill-defined, rugged border have escalated since the Pakistani government initiated its latest round of peace accords with the Taliban and allied extremists in the tribal areas and settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province.

Some people’s mistaken belief that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq is more than a minor victory in the much longer war against Islamic extremism is naive in my opinion. Further, to not see the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq as much more than pushing the bully to another part of the playground is a dangerous outlook.

It must not be forgotten that al Qaeda will morph and shift and change as is required to adapt in the various skirmishes. Doug Farah discussed “The Morphing War Against Al Qaeda in Iraq” last February.

The point is that, while there seems to be little doubt that the al Qaeda-linked groups in Iraq are hurt, the next iteration of the groups may make them even harder to get at.

Perhaps celebrate the “victory” in Iraq (when it is actually time to do so). But do not try to convince me, or others who know more than I, that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq will do nothing much more than shift their attention and their resources to other fields of battle that are softer and more vulnerable.

al Qaeda, morphing, State Department

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Deadliest attack in Kabul since the first “fall of the Taliban;” worst car bombing in Afghanistan since 100 died at dog fight in Kandahar in February 08. A vehicle born IED killed at least 40 people at the Indian mission in Kabul, among them were 4 stated to be Indian nationals (including the Indian Defence Attache, a Counsellor-level diplomat and two security guards).

This was apparently a targeted attack against the Indian minister with the other deaths being labeled as “collateral.”

There has been a sharp increase in acts of terrorism in Afghanistan since the new Government headed by Yousef Raza Gilani assumed office in Islamabad in the last week of March, 2008. NATO officers in Afghanistan have spoken of a 40 per cent increase in the infiltration of jihadi terrorists from the tribal belt of Pakistan into Afghanistan since the new Pakistani Government suspended military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and entered into peace negotiations with them. Even as acts of terrorism—-including suicide terrorism— have increased in Afghan territory, there has been a sharp decrease in acts of suicide terrorism in Pakistani territory. This indicates that the new Government has made a deal with the Taliban allowing it to operate freely in Afghanistan in return for its stepping down its operations in Pakistani territory.

For pictures and a video of the gory details click on the links.

Let us recognize the point of what is meant by a “Long War.” The enemy has long patience. We do not. The enemy infiltrates places and organizations where we cannot (we don’t look like “them”). If you think for one second that the Taliban is defunct, kaput! or dead, you know nothing of the “Long War.” Even with great losses of troops and men, the Taliban, the jihadists, al Qaeda is resilient. Do you believe for one minute that our Defense Department or our State Department is not aware of this?

Department of Defense, Kabul, neo Taliban, U.S. State Department, VBIED

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It continues to confound that many have already placed flowers on the Taliban grave. Somehow, there is a continuing sense that because one newspaper or another has claimed that the Taliban has been defeated in Afghanistan, then it is fact. It also goes without saying that anyone who disputes that conclusion is (*)…

Navy Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said insurgent Taliban and extremist forces in Afghanistan have become “a very complex problem,” one that is tied to the extensive drug trade, a faltering economy and the porous border with Pakistan. Violence in Afghanistan has increased markedly in recent weeks, with June the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers since the war began in 2001.

“I don’t have troops I can reach for, brigades I can reach to send into Afghanistan until I have a reduced requirement in Iraq,” Mullen told reporters at the Pentagon. “Afghanistan has been and remains an economy-of-force campaign, which by definition means we need more forces there.”

(*) anti-American, anti-troops, a Democrat, a liberal, “daft,” or somehow otherwise incapable of critical thinking.

The commentary of anti-this, or anti-that, reflects not on the person who disputes the conclusion that the Taliban is defunct, but on those who rashly reach a conclusion based on one biased source or another. More troops are needed in Afghanistan. When we ceded control of the actions in Afghanistan to NATO, my opinion is that we abandoned the military mission in that country. Others, one notable blogger, contends that the 18000 troops in Afghanistan under NATO guidance is not an abandonment.

Bullshit!

Admital Mullen, Taliban

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If you read certain reports like this one, you might take the position that the War in Afghanistan against the Taliban is over (I like “brink of defeat” and “decapitated” - chuckle). Then there is the statement by Agha Lalai Wali, an official with the government-sponsored Peace and Reconciliation Commission in Kandahar who said, “The Taliban are getting stronger and stronger, and after they attacked the prison, that gave them higher morale.” How can that be?

Hundreds of Taliban fighters took control of seven villages in southern Afghanistan on Monday in what appeared to be a major offensive near the country’s second-largest city, according to Afghan officials.

Some people believe that the “sophisticated” and well planned jail break is an indication of the Taliban’s growing strength. IF the Taliban is losing the fight in Afghanistan, but moving to the Pakistani side of the Durand Line which in essence is a non-existent and arbitrary border between the two countries largely unrecognized by the mountain tribes, then I wonder who is actually winning or losing.

Kandahar jail break

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Coming on the heels of the U.S. bomb strike on the Afghan-Pakistani border that killed a dozen or so security and civilians, and the escape of nearly a 1000 Taliban from the Kandahar prison, we now witness the boastful Karzai saying that the Afghan army will pursue the Taliban on the Pakistani side of the border. I must be seeing things!

The Afghan government announced that 870 of the jail’s 1,005 inmates had escaped — including the vast majority of its 398 suspected rebels, the ones they call “political prisoners.”

It is said by Canadian officials that they hope that the newly reintroduced insurgents would not negatively impact on their troops. Further, in Friday’s Canadian National Post, they commented on the premature assessment that the Taliban was on its last legs.

That message has been one that NATO has been pounding home over the last several months. Canadian commanders hailed their latest mission, Operation Rolling Thunder, as proof coalition forces could pretty much go where they wanted in southern Afghanistan.

A couple of weeks ago, the top NATO commander in the country, U.S. Gen. Dan McNeill, told a journalist that the Taliban in southern Afghanistan had been routed and were fleeing toward safe havens in Pakistan.

In February, Britain’s Brig. Andrew Mackay said the Taliban had been brought to their knees in Helmand province. The insurgency was lacking fighters because of the large numbers killed by coalition troops, he added.

 
So ontop of this less than optimistic assessment there is Hamid Karzai threatening to invade neighboring Pakistan to pursue the Taliban escapees.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai threatened Sunday to send Afghan troops after notorious Taliban leaders inside Pakistan in an angry warning to his eastern neighbor that he will no longer tolerate cross-border attacks.

The threat — the first time Karzai has said he would send forces into Pakistan — comes only days after a sophisticated Taliban assault on Kandahar’s prison freed 870 prisoners, and six weeks after Karzai survived his fourth assassination attempt.

Now, in my opinion, the confluence of the events described above suggests strongly that the Taliban is far from dead and defunct; that while there are those who “wish” the Taliban to be kaput in Afghanistan to defuse calls from some camps to fight (and complete) the “real” war in Afghanistan by redeploying forces from Iraq. The other implications are that there is no real border. A number of people do not acknowledge the importance and controversy over the Durand Line. As I wrote “elsewhere” and earlier:

The Taliban are far from dead (IMO of course). The dynamics and ebb and flow of the battle in that region of the world are hard to follow for some. It isn’t as simple as moving pieces on a game board (like “Risk”). An oversimplification of the newly declared, and once again, premature death of the Taliban in Afghanistan is belied by the facts. One article in a British newspaper on line quoting British (NATO) forces does not strike the end of the Taliban. Whether in Afghanistan or Pakistan (or more likely in the tribal regions that “buffer” both pseudo-countries along the mythical border established by the Durand Line is inconsequential to the way things evolve. The prison break in Kandahar, not discussed I believe in any comment in this thread, in which 800-1000 Taliban fighters were sprung loose is an example. The ongoing poppytrade and the sex trade remain as a foundation for another rebirth.

Nearly three years ago the Taliban were declared dead and gone and defunct by NATO…they were not…and the NATO expert with whom I had a running on-line debate suddenly disappeared from the discussion. I remain hopeful, and yet I remain realistic and suprised that Karzai has survived. Frankly, I still believe that Karzai lives each day, only at the pleasure of the warlords (drug lords). If you decalre an end to the Taliban in Afghanistan, by default you are suggesting that the jihad is over there. That is a premature conclusion…

The implications further are that by challenging the Taliban so outwardly, Karzai, in my opinion, is simply putting a target on his back. Anyone want Karzai in the death pool?

Kandahar prison break, Karzai, NATO, Taliban

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Recently, in “another place,” a “debate” ensued about whether the Taliban had been decapitated in Afghanistan, and therefore troops did not have to be redeployed from there to Iraq. Have they been weakened (especially with the killing of Mullah Dullah?) Maybe. Is the Taliban defunct there? I don’t think so.

My argument begins with the question of the Taliban’s movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan…only if you differentiate Afghanistan from Pakistan (little difference except for those who wish to “see” it) is the Taliban on its way to being defunct.

The Drug-Terrorist Link Means Wars can Last Indefinitely
 

“Growing links between the drugs trade and the insurgency in the South will provide longevity to the Taliban,” the UK document says. “In the south, the drugs trade is fuelling the insurgency.” 

It adds: “This is compounded by government corruption. Karzai chooses to avoid rocking the boat with powerful narco figures and has not blocked their appointment as governors or other senior officials.”

In turn, Mr Karzai’s failure to tackle corruption and the drug lords “only increases popular disillusion,” further boosting the insurgency, the paper says.

Pakistan and the Growing Threat of a Sharia Mini-State
 

Recently, there have been negotiations and agreements between the Pakistan Taliban (or tribal leaders including Taliban representatives) and Pakistan governments in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), both of which are in the northwestern area of Pakistan. Pakistan has seen 4,500 killed in terrorist attacks over the past year and a half, and the Pakistan NWFP and FATA governments view agreements with the Pakistan Taliban as the solution to end the violence and find peace in their areas.

Taliban Defends Peace Accord with Pakistani Government
 

“We consider the peace accord in Pakistan as an internal affair, which pertains to that country alone—yet the occupation forces in Afghanistan and the forces hostile to Islam around the world oppose this peace accord and argue it will lead to an escalation in jihadi activities in Afghanistan. This claim is groundless and it is far from the truth… The occupying forces and their supporters are facing total defeat in Afghanistan, and therefore, they are trying to use these kind of statements and claims in order to distract the gaze of the Afghans and the rest of the world in another direction—so that the Afghan resistance will appear to be weak.”

Thus, from the CTB alone, there are more sources and contrary conclusions. Its that “pesky Durand Line” again.

First, let us not minimize the fact that the prison break in Kandahar City Afghanistan freed nearly 1000 Taliban fighters. But there is more going on here!

Despite the fact that Afghanistan is a very conservative country, the sex trade is rampant. And it gets “gooey” from there.

Afghanistan is one of the world’s most conservative countries, yet its sex trade appears to be thriving. Sex is sold most obviously at brothels full of women from China who serve both Afghans and foreigners. Far more controversial are Afghan prostitutes, who stay underground in a society that pretends they don’t exist.

Customs meant to keep women “pure” have not stopped prostitution. Girls are expected to remain virgins until their wedding nights, so some prostitutes have only anal sex.

Want more salacious “input?”

Some prostitutes are forced into the sex trade by their families. The Ora report said 39 percent of the sex workers interviewed found clients through their relatives — including 17 percent through their mothers and 15 percent through their husbands.

We’re also facing the possibility that a German-born Muslim convert Eric B. who authorities have been trailing for months may be planning a suicide attack in Afghanistan. You can “rose colored” glasses this thing (in Afghanistan and elsewhere), or you can consider that the Taliban ain’t dead (just yet at least) and that the War on Terror is constantly morphing.

Child sex in Afghanistan, Durand Line, Mullah Dullah, Taliban

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Is this a scramble to avoid accountability or a parsing of words?  Seems that the “supreme guide” of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Mohammed Mahdi Akef, had some 2nd thoughts.  At first, it sounded like he was praising bin Laden, but then he tried to “swallow his words.” It is clearly a question of the meaning of “jihad.”

Mr. Mahdi Akef tried to water down his statements in which he had praised Bin Laden and thus justified it by saying, “what Bin Laden is doing against the occupier in Iraq and other Muslim countries that are under occupation is jihad, but what he is committing against people and civilians in Muslim and other states is wrong.”

The question is: Are the acts that Al-Qaeda is committing in Iraq; the killing, treachery and entrapment of people, including the physically ill, women and children; the beheadings and targeting of markets, schools and houses of worship, not to mention the demolition of installations and the crippling of the political process in Iraq – be considered jihad? Can the crimes that Al-Qaeda commits in Afghanistan be considered jihad?

Alas, “bin Akef” is caught in his own words…backtracking is so hard to do…Even his subsequent statements denying that he praised al Qaeda make it hard(er) for him to justify…

Akif said: “We (the Brotherhood) have nothing to do with Al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Laden… we are against violence except when fighting the occupier…When he (Bin Laden) fights the occupier then he is a mujahid, and when he attacks civilians, then this is rejected.” He added that “the word Al-Qaeda (Organization) is an American illusion…Bin Laden has a thought …his thought is based on violence, and we do not approve of violence under any circumstances except one and that is fighting an occupier. We have nothing to do with Al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Laden…we condemn any thought that leads to violence. When Bin Laden fights the occupier then he is a mujahid, when he attacks the innocent and citizens then this is rejected.”

But he draws a very thin line, differentiating between the “occupier” and the people of the “occupied” land. Such is the conflict that exists in today’s Muslim world. Caught between speaking out against America, and not looking like it supports the violence and bloodshed brought upon the people of Iraq and Afghanistan in al Qaeda’s efforts to fight the Coalition.

al Qaeda, bin Akif, Muslim Brotherhood

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