Predicting the Terrorists’ Tet
Posted by StormWarning on 27 Jun 2008 at 09:43 pm | Tagged as: Commentary, Current Affairs, Editorial, International Issues, Iraq, Jihad, Predictions
Anyone who reads this space knows that I’ve frequently made predictions. Those among you also know that at the predicted time, it is time to step back, reflect and recognize the validity of those predictions. On December 26, 2007 Austin Bay wrote, “Sometime within the next six months or so, al Qaeda or Saddamist terrorists will attempt a Tet offensive.” The article urged readers to believe that the jihadists sought to emulate the strategic political effects North Vietnam’s 1968 attack obtained.
Mr. Bay then went to draw an historic parallel between the peacewing of the Democratic party during the Civil War led by Clement Vallandigham to Senator Harry Reid (who Bay called “our era’s Vallandighams”). And further, Mr. Bay predicted that:
Their “ultimate Iraqi Tet” would feature simultaneous terror strikes in every major Iraqi city. These simultaneous strikes would inflict hideous civilian casualties with the goal of discrediting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s and General David Petraeus’ assessments that Iraqi internal security has improved. The terrorists would reduce Iraqi government buildings to rubble.
Well, I don’t want to be proven wrong by near term events, but given the “effectiveness” of the surge. there is reason to expect that no Iraqi Tet will occur (too soon at least). Of course, Bay bought himself a bit of leeway by then saying that the Election period in November would give al Qaeda, the jihad, the Islamic Fundamentalists etc. the opportunity to inflict “sensational carnage that even momentarily seeds the perception of defeat is their only chance of victory.”
But I’ll bet that Bay got his 10 votes within minutes…LOL And yes, I’ve had this article bookmarked since it first appeared simply to see if the bold prediction played out in reality.
Austin Bay, Terrorists Tet
It’s always good to keep track of those who predict the future.
Daniel Pipes predicted something in the form of 9/11 way back before the World Trade Center was bombed in 1993.
If you know anyone who lives near or drives by the Pentagon on weekends and they tell you something like “man the pentagon parking lot was full for a saturday” hurry home and keep your eyes on the news. That’s the best predictor, if any, that we’re getting ready to hit Iran.
I predict that this event is not far off.
Of course, making predictions, especially on the Internet is easy (too easy). The hard part is revisiting those predictions at the appropriate time and seeing how you did. Austin Bay’s prediction is standing out there naked (still) and remains a question. Others have predicted that we’ll do something with Iran. I’m still not so sure. As for predictions, sometimes they are “wild ass guesses” (most of mine); Bay’s was, I don’t know. Pipes, well, I used to like his writing. As for predicting Sept. 11, the Nunn-Hart reports on American Preparedness should have been enough, and credible at that, to have warned the Nation.
Frankly, now, predicting acts of terrorism have become alot more predictable, as have invasions and the like. Hersh’s “breaking news” of covert ops in Iran wasn’t too surprising since he’d already bloated that balloon before.
If we mount any action in Iran, you will see an immediate spike in the prices of oil (up to $5/gallon perhaps). I’m not too sure what to really think about Iran.