StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

This is early, and the source is somewhat dubious since ABC has had a recent spate of “breaking news” blurts that diminishes the network to a “blogoburster,” but ABC is reporting that “officials familiar with highly sensitive intelligence on this issue,” that Iran and al Qaeda are in high level discussions. While questioning whether Iran will release bin Laden’s son’s (who are at the core of these discussions), the motives are unclear.

“The Iranians know there would be hell to pay if these guys were set free,” a U.S. official told ABC News.

“Iran likely sees these individuals, as major bargaining chips,” says another official. “How and when they’re going to use those chips or whether they are going to keep them in the bank is part of an ongoing strategic discussion they are having internally.”

Apparently, after September 11th, al Qaeda split into two groups, one heading to the mountains of Pakistan and the other, led by Saif al Adel (an Egyptian), went to Iran (Adel is suspected as the leader of the group that attacked the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 - the US State Department has put a $5 million bounty on his head). The group that fled to Iran is said to include al Qaeda’s shura (management council), and over 2 dozens members including some of bin Laden’s relatives, including two of his sons, Saad and Hamza.

“Al Qaeda would like to get those folks a deal and they’ve been trying to work a deal,” a senior defense official tells ABC News. “Right now there is greater effort being applied by al Qaeda to seek a resolution.” Although Iran has recently signaled a willingness to discuss the issue, this official says, “I don’t see the Iranian government desiring to work very fast or quickly on that. ”

AND

“Iran has repeatedly resisted numerous calls to transfer custody of its AQ detainees to their countries of origin or third countries for interrogations or trial,” the report says. “Iran also continued to fail to control the activities of some AQ members who fled to Iran following the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.”

Motives behind these reported talks?
* Under one theory, the talks are a reaction to al Qaeda’s recent anti-Iranian rhetoric…Iran may be making an unspoken threat to al Qaeda’s leadership: If al Qaeda attempts to attack Iran, these people will suffer.

* Iran may have initiated the talks as a threat to the United States, that if the U.S. takes hostile action against Iran, these captives could be released, set free to plot attacks against the West.

Either way, I have an issue with the ABC statement: ABC News interviewed several high-level U.S. national security officials for this story. Because of the sensitive nature of intelligence on this subject, all spoke on the condition that their names not be used. We also asked the government of Iran to comment on this story. The spokesman for the Iranian Mission to the United States said he could not answer our specific questions but told us combating terrorism “remains one of the main Iranian political priorities.”

Also covered by the Right Truth in Iran Joining Forces with al Qaeda.

Frankly, I’ll be interested to see how this all plays out in the next few days.

ABC News, al Qaeda, Iran, Kenya and Tanzania bombings, Saif al Adel