StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Turkey Brokers Israel and Syria Talks

A day later (than others), and short (because of time). It appears that the talks between Israel and Syria being brokered by Turkey at the behest of the Bush Administration could well require a shift in U.S. policy toward Syria. This may be delayed until after GWB leaves office in January 2009 (who will be left holding that bag?). There should be no mistake that this is an Earth moving development, and one that clearly illustrates what I have written before (and which is ignored by many others), that Foreign Policy and National Security decisions are not discretely isolated to one Administration. It must be remembered that there is a fluidity of events that occur across the transition of power in this country. And a successor government will, often by necessity, inherit “issues.”

The U.S. government had asked Turkey to increase efforts to advance negotiations between Israel and Syria, according to a report published by the London Arabic daily Al-Hayat on Saturday.

According to the report, the U.S. request comes in light of the recent political crisis in Lebanon, and U.S. assessments that peace between Israel and Syria will help distance the country from Hezbollah.

This, of course, also comes at a time when Hezbollah has taken control over the Lebanese parliament.

In what is seen as a major victory for Syria and Iran, Hezbollah and its allies are being guaranteed a two-thirds majority in Lebanon’s parliament, just as Israel and Syria are announcing talks concerning the fate of the Golan Heights.

Not surprisingly, anti-Olmert Israeli factions are alluding to the Syrian talks as a “wag the dog” to divert attention from the potential fundraising scandal. But it is hard to believe that the Golan will remain in Israeli hands if these talks progress. On the other hand, there is historic reason to believe that if the “talks” breakdown for any reason that armed conflict could flare up. There is certainly enough room for a breakdown in the talks to occur.

Ankara would like both sides to commit to a signed declaration as a starting point for talks. According to the report, Turkey decided to postpone the proposed sit-down after the Syrians revealed Jerusalem’s stated willingness to withdraw from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace.

No one is going to be happy with this. Two-thirds of the Israeli people are against yielding the Golan Heights. This is not the first time that talks between Israel and Syria have occured. It could well be the last. Further, the “no negotiation” and “anti-appeasement” crowds are going to be rip roaring pissed off-f-f-f about this.

Of course, I don’t have any real inside information, and I’m only projecting a guess or two.