StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Though I offered my own 2008 predictions, I came across a report from the Overseas Advisory Council of the top overseas security issues that faced U.S. private sector, and that will likely continue.  The list includes theft of trade secrets, cyber attacks, insider threats, home-grown political radicalism, terrorism, and political conflict.  Its good summary if “anyone” is (really) interested. 

Even though I haven’t had a chance to complete the post, my predictions for 2008 are found in Looking Ahead: Observations and Predictions for 2008.  It is always interesting to me that so much focus is placed on the personality and the politics of the Presidency, rather than the understanding of the World around us (perhaps it is more obvious than the question…commenting on the personalities of politics is alot easier)…but afterall, the understanding of the candidate(s) of the World around us is the most important issues are the World in which the new President will serve. 

According to Todd Brown of the Department of State’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security (who also serves as the Exec. Dir. of the OSAC), many of these growing and continuing threats are a result of increased globalization - “As an increasing number of U.S. businesses, academic institutions, and nonprofits expand the scope of their international operations, they must learn to safeguard their facilities and personnel by incorporating security and risk management into their core business practices.”

* Africa: Rising violent crime in major cities
Violent crimes occurred at critical levels throughout many African cities. Criminals targeted their victims in vehicles, hotels, and commercial areas. Fatal carjacking attacks as well as armed robbery of residences, hotels and restaurants have dramatically increased in major cities such as Lagos, Nigeria, Nairobi, Kenya, and Johannesburg, South Africa. Private sector organizations operating in high-crime environments must implement sufficient measures to protect both property and personnel.

* Africa: Increased kidnapping in the Niger Delta
This past year, the number of kidnappings, both onshore and off-shore, by militant groups and criminal gangs in the Niger Delta increased dramatically compared to 2006. Attackers targeted locally employed staff of Western-owned oil companies, expatriates, and their families. In addition to continued threats against oil workers, individuals not affiliated with the petroleum industry — including Nigerian government officials — also were targeted for kidnapping. On an encouraging note, one report indicated the rate of kidnappings had slowed considerably in the second half of 2007.

* Asia: Theft of trade secrets and insider threats
The private sector in Asia faces a significant threat of fraud, including theft of trade and business secrets, and these threats have increased exponentially in recent years. India and China, two of Asia’s largest players on the international business stage, continue to be among the nations where the private sector faces the most intense risk of theft of commercial secrets and insider threats. Companies must perform extensive due diligence measures to guard against document fraud by job applicants, competitors trying to place an insider to steal company secrets, and theft and compromise of trade and commercial secrets.

* Asia: Regional and domestic terrorism
The effects of regional and domestic terrorism are apparent across Asia. Pakistan is a prime example where transnational terrorists and domestic insurgencies are increasingly active, as exhibited by continued recruitment of extremists, terrorist training, and terrorist operations against official and private sector targets. This has been most evident in attacks across India and attacks by extremists targeting the government and military in Pakistan. These threats require the American private sector to operate at heightened levels of security, often resulting in increased operating costs and heightened concerns by employees and investors.

* Europe: Cyber attacks
In the wake of a political controversy, Estonia was victimized by cyber attacks which plagued the Web sites of the government, media services, and banks. The attacks were carried out by flooding websites with digital debris, forcing them to become unusable, and by infecting computers around the world with viruses in order to remotely operate them against Estonian systems. It is vital to recognize that these attacks can easily be replicated against a new target, including the U.S. private sector. It is incumbent that crisis management plans now account for this type of cyber threat.

* Europe: Radicalization
Radicalization of home-grown elements in Europe continued in 2007, evidenced by terrorist plots disrupted in Germany and Denmark, the discovery of explosive devices in two cars in London, and a flaming SUV that extremists crashed into the Glasgow airport in Scotland. The radicalization process, influenced by international terror groups, appeals to people of varied backgrounds, living under diverse circumstances. These plots and incidents underscore the fact that extremist elements in Europe continue to pose an ongoing threat to the region.

* Latin America: Natural disasters
Earthquakes, hurricanes, and tropical storms significantly impacted operations of the U.S. private sector during 2007, destroying property, killing hundreds, and leaving thousands homeless. In one particular case, 70 percent of Tabasco, Mexico was flooded and a major natural gas pipeline exploded as a result of a late-season tropical storm. Both tourist and industrial sectors are vulnerable in areas prone to natural disaster. This has lead security managers to re-evaluate contingency plans within the region.

* Latin America: Political obstructionism
Political conflict has emerged as a significant concern to the U.S. private sector in Latin America with the movement by some Latin American leaders to nationalize private industry and campaign against U.S. interests through proposed constitutional referendums. This was demonstrated in late 2007 when Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, proposed 69 amendments to the Venezuelan Constitution which could have diminished economic stability and property rights. The same type of movement has been orchestrated by Bolivian President Evo Morales. Political demonstrations have at times flared into violent street protests, which have paralyzed commercial areas in some cities and resulted in both injury and death.

* Middle East and North Africa: Political instability in Lebanon
For much of 2007, Lebanon’s dueling political blocs led some in the private sector to worry that the country could return to civil war if issues are not resolved to the satisfaction of all parties. Lebanon also experienced several tension-inducing incidents in the past year that have been political and/or sectarian in nature, including low-level bombings, assassinations of several well-known anti-Syrian figures, and battles between military and extremists in Palestinian refugee camps. These incidents have increased concerns that terrorist elements or sympathizers could take advantage of the situation in order to establish themselves and plot attacks against Lebanese or Western interests.

* Middle East and North Africa: Terrorist attacks in Algeria
Violent terrorist attacks throughout Algeria over the last year have confirmed that AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb) poses a serious threat to government and private sector entities. Using sophisticated tactics, several AQIM attacks targeted economic interests, including three attacks on Western company convoys. Other threat incidents included several suicide vehicle bombings (two of which were coordinated attacks on multiple high-profile targets in Algiers), a suicide vest used in an attack targeting Algeria’s president, as well as plots to kidnap Westerners.

The Overseas Advisory Council was started in 1985 as a partnership between the U.S. Department of State and American business and private sector interests worldwide to promote security cooperation.

See a repeat of another blog post from ”This and That” here (proving the point I make in one of the comments about analysis).

AQIM (al Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb), Bureau of Diplomatic Security, Chavez, domestic insurgencies, European radicalization, Morales, Overseas Advisory Council, transnational terrorists, U.S. Department of State