StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

A realistic view of what is happening in Afghanistan tells you that there is a danger of the country rolling backwards downhill.  Its called “devolution.”  If it goes the wrong way, it is likely to be attributable to an inability of American and British leaders to share the vision of the “future” of Afghanistan following the 2001 invasion.  This is discussed in Doug Farah’s article, Afghanistan and the Disturbing Lack of Stategic Thinking, with further analysis in Claudio Franco’s paper, A Taliban Resurgence: The Destabilization of Kabul?

The date October 7, 2007 marked the sixth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Afghanistan. Within only days of that invasion, the Islamic Emirate began to crumble and eventually dissolved. The Taliban were routed from much of the country, while most of the surviving Mullahs took refuge outside the country, primarily in neighboring Pakistan. The time spent in exile across the border served to prune the movement’s ranks and select a hard core of loyal mujahideen who were ready to fight on and repel the infidels. 

At the time, nobody would have bet on the resurgence of the Taliban movement—but five years later, the Talibs are back, more determined than ever to resuscitate the Islamic Emirate, and considerably deadlier after Iraqi-style tactics were successfully grafted onto the Taliban rootstock. Afghanistan has witnessed 100 suicide bombings since January 1st this year, up from a total of zero in 2002. More than 5,200 people have died in 2007, by far the deadliest year since 2001:194 were victims of suicide operations in the first six months of the year.

● since early 2005, the Afghan insurgency has rapidly evolved, relying increasingly on Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and “martyrdom” operations and car-bomb attacks…

● Satellite imagery and air-power are powerless against an enemy that avoids traditional battlefield conflict and mounts a continuously asymmetric and opportunistic war

● NATO and U.S. strategists greatly underestimated the de-stabilizing potential of a Taliban insurgency simmering in the heart of Pashtunistan, a de facto autonomous territory spanning both sides of the Pak-Afghan frontier.

● time is without a doubt on the Taliban’s side. Patience is probably the Taliban’s most effective weapon against Karzai and his Western allies.

● The ability to evolve and adapt to a 21st century conflict has probably been the Taliban’s crucial most significant weapon since 2001

● the Taliban are no longer a homogenous group of theology students trained in Pakistan, but a complex “ensemble” of fundamentalist zealots, foreign fighters, unemployed youths indoctrinated by Deobandi (or Salafi) militant clergy, and militiamen funded by drug barons and incorporated within the movement to fight against the common enemy.

● European intelligence source has recently confirmed that young European-born recruits are now opting to fight in Afghanistan instead of Iraq

The paper also posits that the warlords are now preparing for another series of battles and that Karzai faces a problem of balancing the Pashtun powerbase with the powerful Tajik, warlords (Northern Alliance).

It may be hard to accept (for some), but consistently, I’ve been posting about the instability of Afghanistan and Pakistan, two “nations” joined at the hip along the Durand line.  Afghanistan is far from a “done deal.”

Also, please check out previous/recent posts: Afghanistan - Premature Declarations, White House - “Limited Progress” in Deteriorating Afghan War, Losing Afghanistan - Redux and:

Oct 5 2007: Looking at Six Years in Afghanistan

Jan 27, 2007: Facing Reality in Afghanistan

Dec 15, 2006: Afghanistan & the Taliban: The “Rule Book” (Layeha)

Dec 4, 2006: Afghanistan - Counterpoints 

Nov 29, 2006: Losing Afghanistan - The Taliban’s Re-Emergence 

Mar 3, 2006: Afghanistan - Unraveling? 

In direct counterpoint to the point of view expressed in this post, as well as in  and in my other posts linked above, you might wish to read Amy Proctor’s post, The Misreported War in Afghanistan.  For another opposite point of view, please also check out Spree’s Good News from Afghanistan.

Pashtun, Tajik, Taliban