As we reach another turn of the year, many blogs are going to post their predictions for 2007. It is not at all surprising that the Counterterrorism Blog was listed as one of the “Best Blogs of ‘06″ for best “investigative reporting” and “jihadist” research information. Congratulations are in order for Andrew Cochran and the rest of the CT Blog panel of experts for providing their insight and analysis on the issues of the day, and providing some of the raw material on which observers like myself can launch from.

It is also not surprising that this one article grouped together most of the rest of blogdom as being composed of many sites that have created “instant experts in counterterrorism.” Of course, I am not an expert in counterterrorism. My interest and involvement in terrorism and counter-X (including counter-narcotics) happens to originate all the way back to the middle 1990’s…it didn’t begin the morning of September 11th. Alas, while I am somewhat of an expert in my field that falls within the realm of homeland security, and I am an avid reader of original source documents relating to terrorism and security, and I am what some people would call a “policy wonk” when it comes to Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, I do not qualify as an “expert” in counterterrorism, nor do I purport to be one. So, while you must take what I write with a grain of salt, I would also suggest that there are many notable sites discussing terrorism that are excluded from the list in addition to Stormwarning’s Counterterrorism.

US News and World Report “Best Blogs of ‘06″ Lists Counterterrorism Blog

I start by yielding to Doug Farah’s post Lessons Learned in 2006
The primary lesson I take away from 2006 is that we often do not believe what we see in front of us, to our own detriment and danger.

This can also be viewed on the Counterterrorism Blog.

Farah’s words are words to be remembered. My list of “predictions” (perhaps better labeled observations – and by no means a complete list) for the coming year includes the following:

1. The spread of global terrorism – I believe that we have yet to grasp the nature of the enemy. In fact, I believe that largely, we do not really know our enemy at all. Partially, that is because we continue to approach this Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) more in a conventional way than in what I see it to be. The GWOT is as much a battle of societies and sociology as it is a battle between suicide bombers or insurgents and those who seek to stop their attacks with guns and tanks. This is also less about nation states sponsoring terrorism than it is the transformation to terrorism of disenchanted, disadvantaged individuals who seek answers to their plights through the social structure that is available to them. Not that much unlike gang mentality, men and women are attracted to jihadist or terrorist groups (cells) by a desire for social bonding. The stated hatred for the West and America (and therefore Israel) becomes the byproduct of adopting the jihadist, fundamentalist Islamic ways. It is important to also remember the tenets of the treatise written by Spanish-Syrian strategist Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, Da’wat al-muqawamah al-islamiyyah al-’alamiyyah (”The Call for a Global Islamic Resistance”). Key is that the document espouses the concept of “nizam, la tanzim,” or ‘System, not organisation.’ Jihadist groups should develop a template that allows them to create structures wherever they are, and carry out recruitment, fund-raising and attacks. What this means is that no single terrorist is now essential to the jihad…its the system, not the organization.  However, the “parent company” of al Qaeda, as contrasted with the al Qaeda clones, will remain a force behing the spread of terrorism.

As a result, I can see no immediate end to the spread of Islamic, al Qaeda style jihadist terrorism. Already we have indigenous or nearly indigenous systems of jihadist terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq, and some, despite current proclamations of the pushing back of the ICU, soon in Somalia. A quick review of the rest of the world would show additional “hot spots” in Thailand, in the Philippines and in Indonesia…and you can also see the sprouting of unsettlement and disenchantment in South and Central America. I have written here on a number of occasions that the spread of terrorism should be looked at as similar to the spread of a virus, a global pandemic.

Among other references (including other posts on this blog), one interesting article is KNOWING THE ENEMY, Can social scientists redefine the “war on terror”?

2. The Middle East and its affect on Global instability (the 3 “I’s”) –
Israel: Nothing has been settled in the Middle East. Israel continues to be a target of various terrorist organizations ranging from Hamas and Hezbollah to Fatah and al Aksa Martyrs. But beyond that, the Palestinian State as it is, remains unviable. As long as that continues, there is no hope for a peaceful settlement in Israel.

Iraq: Today’s execution of Hussein in Iraq, for all of his crimes against humanity, will not end the violence there. In fact, after a lull, perhaps because of the Muslim holiday of Eid, it is likely that another upsurge in violence will occur. Just how long the experiment in democracy in Iraq can last before full scale sectarian conflict erupts remains one of the key questions. Frankly, I believe that this is one of the most underestimated elements of the War in Iraq, and therefore one of the most likely sources of violence in the months ahead. Also as discussed by Evan Kohlmann in his “State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006″

Here is the link to Evan’s blog and the discussion of the Iraq Insurgency.

The influence of al Qaeda in Iraq has expanded, not contracted, since the death of Zarqawi in June 2006. The consolidation of Sunni groups under the al Qaeda influence and banner. The future impact of this cannot be calculated in my opinion.  AQI will continue to be an issue to be dealt with.

Iran: How will Iran turn out? The year 2007 will give us answers about how deranged Ahmadinejad really is, or whether, like many leader like him, there is a driven substance to his madness. Are they, or will Iran go nuclear in 2007? The nuclear issue in Iran will certainly be raised this year.  We can only pray that Iran’s threats do not happen, ever. But there is absolutely no reason to expect that 2007 will be a year in which nation state sponsored terrorism will cease.  Is there a possibility of conflict?  Could be…lots of sabre-rattling already.  I hope that there won’t be another U.S. military front opened in Iran, but who really knows?

3. Global Instability – We do not live in a safe world.
Lebanon and Syria: Syria’s intentions have yet to be fully revealed. Their support of terrorism is known. What their intentions are relative to weaponry (especially the possibility of nuclear or chemical/biological weapons) remains speculative.  And it remains to be proven or disproven whether Syria is a bigger player via Hussein’s weapons.  The pieces of the Middle Eastern chessboard are complex.

The Philippines: Despite the recent death of the leader of Abu Sayyaff (“Abu Sayyaf Chieftain Khadaffy Janjalani Reported Killed”) to think that the years’ long conflict in the Philippines will stop would be naïve.  I look for an expansion of Abu Sayyaf related terrorist attacks and a closer linkage with the global terorrist movement.

Afghanistan: I continue to find it a bit mind blowing to believe that in some quarters people believe that Afghanistan is stable and that the Taliban is out of the picture. Today I believe that I read one article in which Karzai pleaded with the people to stop supporting the foreigners (“strangers”) who were fighting with the Taliban.  Karzai will have a tough time staying alive, let alone stay in control of this fragile balance between peace and a re-Talibanization.  The Taliban are not “dead” as NATO boy once insisted.  I wonder how far their resurgence will carry them.

AFGHANISTAN: Karzai vs. the Warlords

Afghan leader urges end to Taliban insurgency

Myanmar (Burma): This is another area of instability, and even with the recent death of the leader of the insurgency, Bo Mya, continuing violence and unrest should be expected. Can it spread to the rest of the region? Of course! Myanmar borders Thailand where Islamic stresses continue.

Thailand: The south of Thailand continues to be an area of violence and growing Muslim influence. As written, “Three killed in Thailand’s restive south”

Drive-by shootings and bombings occur almost daily in Thailand’s three southernmost Muslim-majority provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani, where an Islamic insurgency that flared in January 2004 has killed more than 1,900 people.

Why should we expect this violence to stop?

4. The Internet and terrorism – It has been well documented that the jihad is being spread through the Internet. What is often not discussed is that through the Internet and through access to global media (television especially), the ways of the West are brought to those who become the new terrorists. This is something that we cannot stop. It is simply something that needs to be understood and considered.

5. Secure Identification Documents – In a way, IMO, the term “secure document” is a non-sequitor. Certainly, the federal government would argue that the Transportation Workers Identification Card or the Common Access Credential both represent secure documents. As time passes, perhaps with all of the regulations (HSPD 12 and FIPS 201 for example), these will prove out. But how about the electronic passport (e-passport)? Is it secure? If you believe the numerous and increasing reports about the RFID chips embedded in such secure documents being cloned, then you’ve got to wonder if they are truly secure. Thus, I believe that the recent upsurge in identity theft and the relationship of forged and counterfeit documents to illegal immigration will continue. I’d watch for additional disclosures of phony documents to play a role in the events of 2007.

6. Border (In)security – This blog has had many posts during the past year on our insecure border with Mexico, and the impact of illegal immigration. Not the Democrats and not the Republicans can stop this. IMO, building a wall, whether virtual or physical, is only a small measure. Unfortunately, the Border Patrol and ICE are not capable of performing the National Security roles needed to protect US citizens from terrorists or drug lords flowing across the Southern border with Mexico. It may be time for militarizing the border. There! I said it. Perhaps we need to go beyond sending National Guard to the border as was done in Arizona. Yes, suspend the Posse Comitatus Act. Here is a very good article from the Journal of Homeland Security, “The Myth of Posse Comitatus.”

“…does the act present a major barrier at the National Command Authority level to use of military forces in the battle against terrorism? The numerous exceptions and policy shifts carried out over the past 20 years strongly indicate that it does not. Could anyone seriously suggest that it is appropriate to use the military to interdict drugs and illegal aliens but preclude the military from countering terrorist threats that employ weapons of mass destruction? For two decades the military has been increasingly used as an auxiliary to civilian law enforcement when the capabilities of the police have been exceeded. Under both the statutory and constitutional exceptions that have permitted the use of the military in law enforcement since 1980, the president has ample authority to employ the military in homeland defense against the threat of weapons of mass destruction in terrorist hands…”

7. The continuing merging of the War on Terrorism and the War on Drugs - While this is related to the issue of border security, I see the intertwining of drugs and terrorism to continue in the New Year. Why is this important? Not only do illegal narcotics represent a serious threat to our Nation, but the illicit drug trade also presents opportunities for terrorist funding.  There is an unquestionable linkage (at least in my mind) between terrorism and illegal narcotics, and that connection is very dangerous.

8. Attacks – I have no crystal ball and while we can all pray that nothing like September 11th 2001 (New York, Washington DC) or July 7th 2005 (London) or March 7th 2004 (Madrid) or October 1st 2005 (Bali) ever repeats it would be naïve to believe that another major attack will not occur. It has been pretty quiet lately. It is unrealistic to expect this quiet to continue for much longer. Whether or not we in this country have become too complacent, and whether that attack will occur on our soil is beyond my speculation.  Watch the Pacific Rim and South Asia.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –

a. The “next” terrorist attack, wherever it occurs, will be unconventional. The most likely form is a radiological weapon or dirty bomb. We can only hope that it is limited in scope (my guess is South Asia). Another anthrax type attack is not beyond imagination.

b. Terrorism and the growth of Islamic, fundamentalist jihadism will occur in the Western Hemisphere:

  • There will be further and growing social and political instability in Mexico
  • Hugo Chavez’ influence in South America will expand as he continues to provide financing for insurgency activities (and watch for his involvement outside of SA).

The tri-border area, where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina meet, is a lawless region where drugs trafficking, gun running and counterfeit goods are rife.

The BBC has now found documents showing the suspicious transfer of large sums of money to the Middle East, which investigators believe goes to fund terrorism.

c. Karzai’s government in Afghanistan will succumb to increasing pressures from the previously “defunct” but resurrected Taliban. To a degree, this will be a result of Pakistan’s willingness to negotiate and make concessions with the Taliban.  Watch Pakistan closely and we’ll see how stable even the Musharraf regime is at the end of 2007 (after all, Musharraf took power in a coup).  Since the border between these two countries is arbitrary, I’d expect the influence of the Taliban to expand on both sides.  On the extreme end, I wonder if one or both will still be alive.

d. The Iraqi conflict will expand, leading to a separatist movement by Kurdistan. This will both inflame the Shi’a and Sunni segments of the Iraqi Government, but also enrage Turkey.  I simply cannot see Turkey standing by and watching the emergence of democracy in Kurdistan idly.

e. Despite the recent successes of Ethiopia in “routing” the ICU in Somalia, Somalia will become the next battleground in the Global War on Terror. This will hasten the U.S. military establishing the Africa Command, which will be brought into the fighting, opening a potential third battlefront.

f. Continued terrorists attacks in India and the skirmishes between India and Pakistan on their border will continue to flare-up, leading to a nuclear showdown.  The Pakistani-Indian nuclear stand-off could well accelerate.

g. Putin and Russia will move further away from its friendly position with the West and with the U.S. Putin is dangerous, even if “trusted” by GW (question: Russian democracy?).  The fall-out from the Litvinenko murder by Polonium 210 is still unresolved, and probably will be the most blogged and unsolved “about” during 2006.  IMO, the only way that it is an important event is if it is shown that it was smuggling operation gone bad and that Polonium 210 could be used in a dirty bomb.  Otherwise, despite the attention paid to it here and elsewhere, it was a “Grade B” spy movie.

h. Despite all of the other rhetoric, the Democrats will have little choice but to maintain the stance of the Global War on Terrorism, even if open debate and budget battles create uproars within the conservative communities.

i. Senator Clinton will not run for President (I’m still not even sure that she will win the Democratic nomination, but this is still over a year away). But don’t look for Al Gore to try to run again. Neither will John Kerry.

j. Dick Cheney will not serve out the remainder of the term.

k. Very little of substance will be accomplished in the next Congress that starts on January 4, 2007.

Of course, I run the risk of being wrong on every one of these “predictions” but that is what predictions are for.  Additionally, I’ll probably realize later that I’ve missed one or two very important issues.

I thank my friend Moon for giving me this opportunity and allowing me to use his Webdream to write this blog. And I especially thank the many people who have found their way to this place and often spent time reading my ramblings and following some of the links to articles that I have considered meaningful. I do wish that more people would comment and use this place to voice an opinion on these subjects, but perhaps that will come in 2007.

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