StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Just last week I posted Losing Afghanistan - The Taliban’s Re-Emergence in which a number of sources were quoted on the situation in that country as being on the precipice.  Despite those opinions, mine included, in fairness, the following should be noted:

In Afghanistan, lessons in the face of violence
Educators persevere despite the constant threat of Taliban attacks.
…When schools reopened in 2002 after the ouster of the Taliban regime, only about a third of Afghanistan’s school-age children were in class. Today, the World Bank says, the figure is 87%, about 6.5 million pupils, a reflection of the hope of Afghan parents that the U.S.-backed government will be able to bring their country into the modern world. Some aid workers estimate the figure is much lower…

Over 120,000 refugees return to Afghanistan this year
About 125,000 refugees have returned to Afghanistan, which still has the world’s biggest refugee population, so far this year, with the majority coming back from Pakistan and Iran, a UN spokesman said…

…"This is a very substantial level of returns, while it is lower than the same period last year, in which 295,000 Afghans returned."

UNHCR estimates that 2.5 million Afghans are still in Pakistan, while another 900,000 are in Iran. Many have lived in exile for more than 20 years…

Capitalism Comes to Afghanistan
The commercial landscape is rife with risk, but hardy entrepreneurs and multinational giants are betting that the Afghan economy will rise from the ashes

Additionally, according to DefenseLink’s Five-Year Afghanistan Report  (HTML version is here),   

• More than four million Afghani refugees have returned.
• The legitimate GDP (excluding drugs) in 2002 increased 29 percent; in 2003 16 percent; in 2004 eight percent; in 2005 14 percent; 2006 expected 14 percent.
• In 2004 only nine percent had reliable medical facilities, now it is 77 percent.
• More than 4,000 medical facilities, 661 basic health centers, 413 community medical centers, 66 district hospitals, and 33 provincial hospitals have opened since 2004
• More than 4,000 kilometers of highway projects have been completed; more than one-billion square meters of land has been cleared of land mines opening up more area for cultivation.
• There is more press freedom: five independent TV channels and one government-run TV station/
• There are 290 newspapers.
• Close to six million Afghan kids are in school, a six-fold increase since 2001.

Personally, I think that this "rosy eyed" view of the state of the people and country of Afghanistan is nothing but spin trying to convince me and others that you cannot judge the status of Afghanistan by what you read in the newspapers (the dreaded "mainstream media").  Life in Afghanistan still sucks.  More than 50% of the people live below the poverty line.  Despite increases in the number of Afghan kids going to school, the fact remains that the Taliban continue to burn schools and kill or intimidate teachers (and students).  The fact alaso remains that the "unrest" in the mountainous regions between Afganistan and Pakistan threatens the stability of Afghanistan. 

You also have these:

Taliban Truce in District of Afghanistan Sets Off Debate
After a series of bruising battles between British troops and Taliban fighters, the Afghan government struck a peace deal with tribal elders in Helmand Province, arranging for a cease-fire and the withdrawal of both sides from one southern district. A month later, the ripples are still being felt in the capital and beyond.

The accord, reached with virtually no public consultation and mediated by the local governor, has brought some welcome peace for residents of the district, Musa Qala, and a reprieve for British troops, who had been under siege by the Taliban in a compound there for three months.

But it has sharply divided former government officials, legislators and ordinary Afghans.

Some say the agreement points the way forward in bringing peace to war-torn parts of the country. Others warn that it sets a dangerous precedent and represents a capitulation to the Taliban and a potential reversal of five years of American policy to build a strong central government. They say the accord gives up too much power to local leaders, who initiated it and are helping to enforce it…[more]

AFGHANISTAN: TALIBAN SETS ITS SIGHTS ON KANDAHAR
Afghanistan’s volatile Helmand province is shaping up to be the launchpad for the Taliban’s ambitious offensive to regain control, five years after their ouster by US troops. In more than 12 of the 17 districts there is growing grassroots support for Taliban-led insurgents whose recent savage suicide bomb campaign appears a prelude to a further offensive. An investigation by Adnkronos International (AKI) over 10 days in the region uncovered a strategy to besiege Kandahar, cutting it off from the rest of the country, before launching an all-out battle to gain control of the city next year…[more]

Afghanistan Opium Crop Sets Record
U.S.-Backed Efforts At Eradication Fail
Opium production in Afghanistan, which provides more than 90 percent of the world’s heroin, broke all records in 2006, reaching a historic high despite ongoing U.S.-sponsored eradication efforts, the Bush administration reported yesterday.

In addition to a 26 percent production increase over past year — for a total of 5,644 metric tons — the amount of land under cultivation in opium poppies grew by 61 percent. Cultivation in the two main production provinces, Helmand in the southwest and Oruzgan in central Afghanistan, was up by 132 percent…[more]

The truth?  The Winter is setting in.  I suspect that when the snow thaws and warm weather returns in Afghanistan, we will see if the truth has emerged.

Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions