StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Don’t ya just hate it? Speaking from this little piece of the Internet for weeks or months, I’ve written about the re-emergence of the Taliban and about the potential loss of Afghanistan. Well, let’s see what I read today…

First from the Washington Post blogs: Taliban Taking Back Afghanistan
The majority of Afghans think the Taliban is winning its war against the government of President Hamid Karzai. Afghans also think that U.S. and NATO forces who are battling the Taliban across the country are incapable of stemming the Taliban tide…

…NATO has to decide whether it’s going to take Afghanistan seriously and induct desperately needed additional troops, aircraft and development aid from member states who have so far proved reluctant to provide them or face the humiliation of loosing greater parts of rural Afghanistan to the Taliban…

…President Hamid Karzai has so far failed to decisively stem the tide of corruption, drugs trafficking and warlordism that continues to beset those areas of Afghanistan where the Taliban are not active…

I’m still looking for that "NATO guy" who a while back chastised me and commented that Afghanistan was a success, the Afghani people were in great shape and that the Taliban had been defeated. Excuse me? If this guy who represented himself as a NATO officer, then it is no wonder that NATO is about to prove itself ineffectual in Afghanistan.

But from the normally conservative Front Page Magazine we also have, "The Return of the Taliban."

Five years since their overthrow at the hands of U.S. forces in the fall of 2001, the Taliban are reappearing with potent strength. Terror attacks in Afghanistan doubled this year, as the former tyrants of the beleagured country are striking with increasing frequency, engaging in suicide bombings, kidnappings, rocket launchings, mine plantings, ambushes, murder of moderate clerics, torching of schools and various other terrorist activities.

NATO’s attempt to safeguard the Afghan government and to bolster its efforts at democratization faces a perilous test. The situation is further endangered by the possibility of the Afghan government opening up talks with the Taliban – a development that could result in allowing terrorists into the government.

The notion of “peace talks” with the Taliban follows in the steps of a current nightmare phenomenon in which fragile states are making, or seeking, deals with the devil…

…remember who exactly the Taliban are:

A Pashtun-dominated Islamic fanatic movement comprised of students who developed their hate in Pakistani refugee camps during the Soviet occupation of

Afghanistan, the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 1996. The new rulers followed the traditions of Mao and Pol Pot by making almost every facet of human life illegal. They banned television, film, books, photography, music (even at weddings) and sports. Public executions of homosexuals and of women accused of adultery and premarital sex became common place.[1For an account of the monstrosities perpetrated by the Taliban, see Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2001).] The Taliban destroyed ancient cultural artefacts and forced Hindus to wear yellow patches on their clothing. All men were forced to grow beards or face brutal punishment…

…NATO has no choice but to militarily defeat the Taliban, no matter how difficult or long the battle will prove to be. For Afghanistan to fall back under Taliban rule would be an unmitigated disaster. Not only would a fascist tyranny re-enslave the Afghan people, but, as NATO’s Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has noted, the country would become a "black hole for terrorism training."

Just like with a Western military defeat, any sort of “deal” with the Taliban will by necessity mean a re-entry of al Qaeda into Afghanistan.

Thus, not only would a “deal” facilitate the re-Talibanization of Afghanistan, it would pose the threat of a Taliban takeover of the country — a nightmare scenario that would mean the return of Osama’s terrorist training camps…[more]

A review of recent positions taken here:

"Terrorism’s Black Hole" - Afghanistan (11/24/06)
Taliban could regain power in Afghanistan, says Nato chief
…"I am absolutely convinced that if we allowed Afghanistan to fall back into Taliban rule it would become a failed state again and a black hole for terrorism training," Scheffer said…

Afghanistan under Taliban again would be ‘black hole for terrorism’
…"What is our first priority? It is Afghanistan."

Scheffer said, however, that NATO could do better in Afghanistan if it had more forces, and said he was doing everything he could to get commitments for more troops…

U.S. faces snowballing Afghan war - Musharraf aide
…The United States and NATO face a snowballing war in Afghanistan and will suffer a military disaster unless they back peaceful means to end the conflict, one of Pakistan’s most influential officials said on Friday.

Ali Mohammad Jan Orakzai, the governor of North West Frontier Province that borders Afghanistan, said Washington, NATO and the Afghan government were "closing their eyes" to the reality that a military-based strategy was making matters worse.

"Either it is lack of understanding or it is a lack of courage to admit their failures," Orakzai told Reuters.

"Like in Iraq. It was the lack of courage to admit their faults. They have admitted them now but at very great cost…"

NO! The answer in Afghniastan is not appeasement or compromise. For a Pakistani Minister to suggest seeking peaceful means to end the conflict in Afghanistan is to justify the ludicrous decisions and policies of the Pakistani government in Waziristan and Baluchistan. The problem in Afghanistan is strategic and deployment of resources…and the problem is simply a lack of confidence (by me, at least) in the ability of NATO to do anything constructive in defeating the now resurgent Taliban. Ignore the fact that the Taliban are revitalized and the end result cannot be good.

MORE?

Taliban Support on the Rise in Afghanistan (11/07/06)
Taliban support on rise in Afghanistan
He has no particular wish to join the Taliban. He could support NATO and President Hamid Karzai’s government, but feels betrayed by the violence in the Panjwayi district he lives in. His other options include becoming a refugee in Pakistan or Iran.

Many in Kandahar say their confidence in the government is falling, and some say that is helping fuel support for the Taliban.

"Should we join the Taliban? Should we join the government? We don’t know," Mohammad said. "The Taliban, they are causing problems for us, but the government is causing problems for us too…"[more]

● Pakistan has ceded Waziristan to the Taliban
● Baluchistan is wrought with rebellion and unrest ("insurgency")
● NATO hasn’t got a clue, IMO, how to deal with the Taliban resurgence
● In the mountains along the non-existent border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, roams who???

MORE?

Ticking Timebomb in Afghanistan (10/18/06)
Certain (some) people have maintained that:

1) Afghanistan is in great shape
2) the Taliban are gone (The "Mythical" Death of the Taliban)
3) so many Taliban are being killed

From Michael Scheuer…served in the CIA for 22 years before resigning in 2004…served as the Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999…author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror and Through Our Enemies’ Eyes: Osama bin Laden, Radical Islam, and the Future of America.

The West is Running Out of Time in Afghanistan
From all observables, the Taliban insurgency is spreading from its deeply rooted base in southern and southeastern Afghanistan to provinces in the west and east. In addition, several Islamist insurgent organizations active during the 1979-89 jihad against the Soviet Union’s occupation of Afghanistan—the "old mujahideen"—have allied themselves with the Taliban…

…Another aspect of the Taliban’s current agenda that is identical to the mujahideen’s political tack in the 1980s is its definitive position that it will not participate in, or even negotiate with, President Karzai’s government…

…As much as the Taliban’s improved military performance is an ill omen for Karzai’s government and the U.S.-led coalition, three other factors greatly augment the progress that the Taliban is making on the battlefield:

- Law and oder
- Pakistan and Waziristan
- Time [more]

MORE?

"Afghans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the performance of Hamed Karzai’s government and as the country slides into ever more instability, Pakistan’s ultimate game plan in Afghanistan has begun to unfold."

MORE?

After the fighting and dying, the Taleban return as British depart
…“Shrapnel from a Taleban mortar blew off one of my testicles soon after the fighting started,” he said while waiting to petition the governor of Helmand in Lashkar Gah for more men and munitions to attack a Taleban headquarters elsewhere. “But I stayed in Musa Qala with the British and fought on for another two and a half months until we were ordered to leave. The pain was terrible, but there were Talebs to kill.”

But when asked whether the deal to withdraw from Musa Qala had left the town free of Taleban influence, as Nato and Afghan government officials claim, Mr Khan’s face clouded as if in greater discomfort.

“Those British soldiers were cursing with us when we were all told to leave,” he said. “They said that they had fought and lost friends to keep the town. And now these tribal elders who are in charge of Musa Qala are the same who gave the Taleban support when they fought against us. The deal was just a clever trick to get the foreign soldiers to go…” [more]

Afghanistan was not a "done deal" when the U.S. left and gave the responsibility to the British or then to NATO. Anyone trusting the Pashtun are nuts! I still believe that Karzai remains in power (and living) simply because it is right now expedient…when the warlords or the drug lords, or the returned Taliban wish it to be…Karzai will be "out of office." IMO, we left Afghanistan prematurely, and now we will see the results of this strategic miscalculation.