StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

As my usual disclaimer, I have no idea how long the article will remain searchable through Google Search. Regardless, I’m going to attempt to respect Stratfor’s copyright and not post the entire article in this post.  Please try to read the entire article.

The House of Representatives has passed a measure, H.R. 4437, that calls for 698 miles of border fencing to be built in five strategic locations. Meanwhile, the Senate is considering a measure, S. 2611, that has been amended to authorize 370 miles of new fencing, which would be built over the next two years. In all likelihood, the Senate will pass a measure and the numerical differences will be worked out in a joint conference committee. Splitting the difference would mean that about 500 miles of new fencing ultimately would be built.

Currently, there are only about 75 miles of existing fence along the U.S.-Mexico border — a distance spanning some 2,000 miles…the numbers of illegal aliens apprehended and amounts of narcotics seized in the San Diego sector have plummeted dramatically since fencing was built…

…the net result over time has been to redirect the flow of illegal traffic. This is a logical outcome…

…There have been no calls in Washington for the border to be completely walled off, nor — given political and economic considerations and international perceptions of such a move — would that be particularly productive. It certainly would not be effective: Illegal aliens also have been apprehended coming in by sea and by air, not to mention at well-manned border checkpoints where they were found with legitimate immigration documents (fraudulently obtained) and sophisticated counterfeits…

At this point, I want to interject an opinion.  An effective border and immigration policy needs to include stepped up border enforcement and defense (I fully recognize that there is a split camp on both sides of the aisle regarding building of the "wall"), but also, implementation of serious measures to enhance the security of immigration and identity documents.  While I have a rooting interest in this area, it is clear to me that simply using biometrics or RFIDs or digital watermarks, these "preferred" security measures, are not enough to ensure rockhard, bullet proof security because these can be circumvented (unless the levels of security for each are ramped up…a measure that also ramps up the cost of the security).  What would I do?  Email me, and if you’re "qualified," we can discuss it.

… Fencing will not stop the flow of illegal immigration, but will redirect it…

Walls, Fences and Statistics
…Border walls and fences have been used for thousands of years. The Athenians built "long walls," such as that running to Piraeus, as military fortifications. Chinese emperors built the Great Wall to help protect against Mongol invasion; the Romans erected Hadrian’s Wall to guard settlements in what became England from marauding Picts and other tribes to the north…

…The most modern construction techniques in border fencing began to appear in 1995, with a three-tiered design created at Sandia National Laboratory. In this design, the steel landing mat structure is the southernmost layer; a well-lit, open area separates that from a 15-foot metal mesh fence (designed to keep out pedestrians) about 50 yards to the north. A road through the open space allows for Border Patrol access, and an array of technologies — heavy video coverage, thermal imaging and embedded sensors that detect metals, heat and movement — blanket the area…

…According to the U.S. Border Patrol, there were more than 100,000 apprehensions every year along the border in the San Diego sector before the triple fence was built, but that number now has dropped to about 5,000 per year. However, these numbers pertain only to apprehensions along the southern border. The San Diego sector is a large space — encompassing 7,000 square miles of southern California territory — and stretches far to the north of the Mexican border. Many more people are apprehended within the entire sector — 138,608 in fiscal 2004 — than they are within the border zone. Nevertheless, the overall trend line shows a decline in apprehensions (which can be extrapolated as an indication of fewer illegal crossings) since the wall was built…

…Though it is not yet clear how much new fencing Congress might authorize, it is apparent from the existing proposals that much of the construction would occur in high-traffic areas along the border — which also means near urban areas. Ultimately, we would expect the plan to force illegal crossings toward more sparsely populated areas of the border…

Implications
First, such a plan could help to take some of the heat out of the current debate on immigration, which has become a tremendous headache for the Bush administration and both parties in Congress…

…Second, building fences would increase the physical risks faced by those attempting to cross the border illegally…

…The increased difficulties might prompt would-be immigrants to seek the assistance of coyotes — or alien smugglers…

Evolving Tactics
In some respects, the border fence discussion is a great example of the larger challenge posed by illegal immigration. The U.S. government builds one section of fence, and the flow diverts to other areas. The pressures that drive emigration northward from poorer countries are so strong that even if the United States was capable of sealing the land border with Mexico, other areas and means of entering would be found…

…In recent decades, for example, an arms race of sorts has been raging between governments and people who counterfeit or alter legal documents used by immigrants, and it likely will accelerate if border fencing adds significantly to the challenges of entering the United States illegally by land. Counterfeiters have been aided greatly by advancements in digital technology…

…In cases where technical alteration becomes too difficult, other types of crime tick upward: Criminals steal blank birth certificates or pay others to swipe legal records for them…

…Each physical security innovation on the part of the government sparks a tactical change on the opposing side, in a self-perpetuating cycle…

…Successful criminals are invariably resourceful, and the issues that fuel illegal immigration to the United States are multifaceted. So long as immigration crimes remain profitable, there will be attempts to circumvent — and reinvent — the system…

Another opinion…Fences alone cannot be the solution to the illegal immigraiton problem…in fact, "guest worker" programs cannot solve the problem either (recognizing that both options are politically and emotionally charged).  Even taking further steps to enhance the security of entry documents will not solve the problem.  In many ways (at least in my opinon), the documentation issue is the leading edge of the solution.  The problem there is the limited view of the government of the available technologies, and despite the perception of security afforded by biometrics and RFIDs, there is more that can be done, and in fact, is in development today.

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