Well, lets take a look at the newest Zarqawi tape courtesy of US CENTCOM and their analysis, "What Extremists are Saying."

From the email I received from Public Affairs (along with other people on their distribution list), On 25 April, The Global News Network posted a statement issued by The Mujahidin Shura Council in Iraq [Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin fial-Iraq] announcing a new message from Abu-Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, leader of the Al-Qa’ida Organization in the Land of the Two Rivers (I.E. Iraq), and provided links to a 34-minute 4-second video statement titled, "This is a Declaration to the People." In it, al-Zarqawi rages against the democratically-elected Iraqi government, encouraging Iraqis and foreign fighters to wage war within the country.

Bill Roggio of the new Counterterrorism Blog has a link to the transcript as well. 

But apparently there is much more to this.  Has he re-emerged because he has lost political power, or does his re-emergence signal a replenishment of his power?

In an article from ABC News, "Messages from two al Qaeda leaders within three days highlight the increasingly symbolic role of Osama bin Laden and the rise of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as the dominant operational figure.

Bin Laden rehashed some familiar themes in a tape released on Sunday, accusing the West of waging a "crusade" against Muslim countries and urging militants to open a new front for holy war in Sudan’s troubled Darfur region.

Zarqawi, al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq, warned Sunni militants against abandoning the insurgency and promised further attacks as Prime Minister-designate Jawad al-Maliki sets out to form a government of national unity.

The striking difference was one of presentation…"

From the same article, "He’s not someone who is trembling or fearful. He feels victorious to the point of arrogance, he’s talking as if he had already won victory."

Zarqawi was shown speaking with an assault rifle alongside him, and later firing long bursts from an automatic weapon — apparently deliberate echoes of earlier bin Laden videos.

Zarqawi tape reveals shifting al-Qaida fortunes
Group’s leader in Iraq taking on larger operational role, analysts say

Messages from two al-Qaida leaders within three days highlight the increasingly symbolic role of Osama bin Laden and the rise of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as the dominant operational figure…

…The striking difference was one of presentation.

Bin Laden issued his message in the form of an audiotape and has not now been seen on any new video since October 2004, fuelling speculation he is either sick or is hiding at a remote location with limited access to technology.

Zarqawi, for the first time, issued a lengthy on-camera statement in which the bearded Jordanian appeared without a mask or disguise — a bold move for a man with a $25 million reward on his head who narrowly escaped capture by U.S. forces in Iraq in February 2005…

From the BBC:  First Zarqawi video ’significant’

From the Christian Science Monitor: 

Zarqawi message: ‘I’m still here’
Iraqis react negatively to video of terror leader, who was until now seen by many as fictional.

A different view was expressed by MRead who has in the past contributed original material to my friend Moon’s side of this blogspace when he wrote on TMF (I happen to disagree with MR’s view on this), "…I think Zarqawi lost it deciding to change attack emphasis from military to civilian targets not realizing how this would turn many Iraqis against him and his group. His reasoning may have been to limit cooperativeness of Iraqis such as those joining the police force yet what he accomplished was to shutter a job market many Iraqis needed. In any event, it didn’t work: recruitment for the armed forces and for police work is up.

So Zarqawi has become an enemy of the people rather than a liberator from the occupation. I don’t see how he can change that even if he changes his tactics and starts again attacking the armed forces – realizing that this move attacks Iraqis and, by view, about as useful as his present tactics.

My view is that Zarqawi will fade rather fast into the background because he is an embarrassment to al-Qaeda. Realize, even al-Qaeda is fighting for hearts and minds and, with Zarqawi, they’re losing those.

Bin Laden, in his most recent tape, said that all are combatants. This I see as a sincere tactical error much in line with the one made by Zarqawi. Bin Laden may have meant that civilian targets in the land of the infidels is acceptable but it will be taken – and especially by Iraqis – that any Iraqi is also fair game. Right now, without bin Laden’s tape, many Iraqis feel they’re targets just for being Iraqi…"

So, lets ask this question about policy and terrorism.  We know who the really bad guys are.  They’re still running loose.  Rumors of the deaths of bin Laden and then Zarqawi have been bandied about numerous times, and yet…and then of course, when Zarqawi was removed from the (figure)head of al Qaeda in Iraq, many, including myself, wrote him off.  And yet, now, he’s back.  Zarqawi is far from being a myth, he’s real.  And many of those supposed pundits and "great posters" on current events who declared him dead or wounded are planting flowers in their gardens and sipping wine.

Over and out for now.  Lets see what other analysts have to say about this.  Asking the question again, "Has he re-emerged because he has lost political power, or does his re-emergence signal a replenishment of his power?"

PS:  Thanks to CENTCOM for keeping me on the distribution list.

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