StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Afghanistan - Unraveling?

Its not that I want to see a self-fulfilling prophecy in any way, but if I am nothing, I am consistent. I have maintained two basic positions regarding Afghanistan:

1) don’t trust the Pashtun tribe…no way…no how…never!

2) the picture in Afghanistan is not as rosy as some people posture (one such person being a NATO employee who has insisted that everything was going well), and that the resurgence of the drug trade would destabilize the country.

Add to that, my belief that the very structure of the Afghan government, that of a relatively weak central government with the real power lying in the provinces where the warlords and drug lords hold the power, puts Karzai in a compromised and possibly tenuous position. Notwithstanding President Bush’s surprise visit to Kabul this week, how long will Karzai remain if he loses the support of the warlords?

Anyway, Doug Farah has written an insightful post (OK, fine!, it also agrees with my perspective on the subject) on his blog that is summarized on the Counterterrorism Blog:

Pessimism Grows on Afghanistan
…Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; John Negroponte; and the State Department all painted a bleak picture of what is happening in that country, something my sources both in Europe and Pakistan have been worried about-and warning about-for almost a year. And they warn it is likely to get much worse this year.

The causes are multiple: Resources siphoned off to Iraq; a growing opium trade providing massive revenue streams for regional warlords who owe no loyalty to the central government or the democratic process; a rejuvinated Taliban drawing strength from both Pashtuns in Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions and a renewed influx of Arab jihadist fighters and money; and a changing of the guard on the ground as NATO takes over for some of the U.S. Special Forces carrying out the brunt of the combat.

While it is a welcome sign of well-deserved concern that senior leaders are publicly acknowledging the problem, there seems to be little being done to actually try to turn the situation around…[much more]

In case you missed earlier posts regarding Afghanistan:

Afghanistan - Winning and Losing
Post Taliban Afghanistan – The New Parliament
Afghanistan: CENTCOM, NATO and Narcotics
Terrorist Resurrection
Tribal Unrest in Pashtunistan