StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

whatA poster on the Motley Fool made what I felt was an inappropriate comparison between the devastation of Katrina and the attacks of September 11th…"…This is going to be far worse than 9/11…"  To be entirely fair, please note that this poster’s comparison was subsequently clarified to reflect the response of the Red Cross and other response organizations to the event.

Update 2130 EDT 8/31/05:  It is simply overwhelming to see the devastation done by the storm.

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Just some perspective, here is a write-up of the Great Storm of 1900 that devastated Galveston Texas:   

Did we not have enough warning of the approach of the storm?  We will see soon the ability of this country to respond to this destruction.

My response was this:

I do not think that comparing this natural disaster to Sept. 11th is apt…and in fact, I believe that such comparisons trivialize both events. While the human and property losses are clearly going to be enormous (and even beyond comprehension), and the longer term implications undoubtably include my earlier prescient statement "I suspect that the Gulf Coastline is about to change dramatically and maybe permanently" (written early Monday morning), the fact that they’ve evacuated the city is ominous. 

The evacaution stems not only from the lack of potable water, but also the fact of the continuing breaches in the levees (I heard that they are attempting to stem the breaches by dropping 3000 pound "bags" of composite material, but that the 300 foot break was creating an engineering dilemma). Also, all of the water has made many of the buildings unstable.

This natural disaster is on the scale of the December ‘04 Tsunami in Aceh, South Asia. The attacks of September 11th changed our country and the world, perhaps forever (much like the Gulf Coast line has been changed by this version of the wrath of Mother Nature).  But I don’t think they should be compared in any way.

On Monday morning, I made a post that was titled "Katrina and Homeland Security" at TMF (below - I believe that its the lesson and point bears repeating). Not contradicting the points I’ve just made about there not being a valid comparison between Katrina and Sept. 11th, I maintain that the unfolding disaster response will being to show how prepared we are to respond to a catastrophic event (natural or terrorist). Emergency response to a massive human and geographic event. The parallels are so apparent to me.

The Katrina devastation will call upon many of the identical resources in Emergency Management and Response as a massive terrorist attack, whether it was against the potable water system of a major city, or if it was a CBRN attack.  How will emergency communications systems work and hold up under these circumstances?

IMO, much like a terrorist attack, this attack by Mother Nature gave us little warning - here they were able to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people and yet the roads for egress were jammed for miles and people were forced to literally ride out periods of torrential rain and massive force winds on the roads, across those aqueducts that they call bridges leaving New Orleans. Imagine the evacuation of a major city under panic conditions following a terrorist attack.

IMO, the implications of infrastructure protection and response are huge.  I’m intereste din watching to see how the Emergency Response efforts, and the combined efforts of local and surrounding units, perform.

Bourbon St. and the French Quarter is flooded; the La. Superdome has been dramatically damaged; I heard reports of people standing on the shoreline watching bodies being carried by the flood waters; there is no potable water or operating infrastructure; many of the antebellum homes that survived the Civil War are gone; and I wonder if even things like the majpor universities of the Delta have suffered damage beyond repair (thinking of Tulane, LSU and Univ. of NO). This will takes weeks if not months to assess.

The recovery process is also one that must be watched closely. Many complained about our country’s effort following the Tsunami…mostly I suspect because it affected Asia and not here. But how different is the situation and the appropriate near and longer-term response.

One final point. Moon has frequently remarked to me that there is a body of water in his "neck of the woods" that if the dam was breached or attacked by terrorists, the waters would spread and flood a number of states and cities downstream from it. Now with the aftermath of Katrina, I see how right he is. Protection of that local, rural infrastructure against a terrorist attack is critical (along with many other similar natural or artificial structures), and justfies the attention of DHS and other agencies in its protection.

There will be valuable lessons learned here about response to not only a natural disaster but to a massive terrorist attack for which we have no warning.

Final note for now: It appears that the Strategic Oil Reserve will be tapped to hopefully cover some of the demand for oil/gas during the upcoming Holiday weekend.  On Monday morning, I purchased gasoline for $2.59.9 per gallon at the BJ’s Club near me (topped off both cars).  By late afternoon that day, the price had risen to $2.62.9 per gallon.  By yesterday, the price had jumped another 10 cents/gallon to $2.72.9.  I’ll bet that there will be another jump today, maybe twice.  Some reports are predicting prices will hit $4 per gallon within a few weeks.  While this natural disaster could not be predicted, consider that at the end of April, 2004, the price of gasoline at BJ’s Club was $1.72.9, or one dollar less in 16 months.

I wrote this on Monday but didn’t publish it on the blog.  Its here for reference:

Emergency Preparedness

This is probably the first in a series of posts on the subject of preparedness.  But since Hurricane Katrina is taking dead aim on the city of New Orleans right now its timely (even though by the time you all read this, the landfall will have already happened).

A few days ago (8/25), even my friend and blog host Moon dismissed Hurricane Katrina as a "non-event" but then, it crossed Florida and met-up with the 90 degree waters of the Gulf.  Suddenly, Hurricane Katrina became a Category 5 monster.

Why is this relevant to terrorism?  To start with, any counter-terrorism plan starts with preparedness, response and reaction to an event.

<B>UPDATE</b> (1800 EDT, 8/29/05)
Seems like Katrina sort of pooped out when it made landfall, and that it "sort of missed" New Orleans.  But it still is a major weather event and clearly has created a natural disaster.

Storm could cost insurers as much as $25 billion

A week ago, people in New Orleans weren’t giving Katrina a second thought.  Even on Friday, I wonder how many were taking it lightly, not even thinking of evacuation.  Now, I’ve heard that over 1 million people have left the "Big Easy."  They are predicting 25 foot storm surge.  Just how far up the Mississippi River will the storm surge reach?

This is now a once in a lifetime event.  A direct hit of New Orleans could convert it into a giant cesspool laced with toxic chemicals and raw sewage. Even coffins from the city’s legendary cemeteries could be released by floodwaters.  Some computer simulations indicate that vast sections of the city could be under water up to 30 feet deep and that 1000’s would be left homeless.

http://www.thehawaiichannel.com/news/4887230/detail.html

Disaster response on a grand scale.

An associate of mine runs a program at a university down there. I’m sure he and his family have left town. Consider all of the tourists who didn’t take this seriously, and stayed in town. The Super Dome is being used for people who can’t leave town but they’re keeping people on the upper tiers, expecting flood waters to inundate the field levels.

Lets all watch as it unfolds today and see how a major U.S. city deals with disaster response (and they have warning unlike what a city under terrorist attack would experience).

A few years ago, the Army Corps of Engineers did a study and determined that if a Category 5 hurricane hit locally to me (LI Southshore), it would over flood the barrier beaches, and bring storm surge flood waters as much as ten miles inland.

It time for a "lesson learned" experience. Hopefully, the lowlanders are prepared.  Hopefully, people will be safe.

I suspect that the Gulf Coastline is about to change dramatically and maybe permanently.

Federal Policy