December 2006

Monthly Archive

Data Fusion Centers - A Coming Trend That’s Already Here

Posted by StormWarning on 31 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, Domestic Terrorism, Federal Policy, International Issues, National Security, Opinions, Technology

It is an absolute.  Data Fusion Centers (DFCs), data warehouses and intelligence and information sharing is happening.  Regardless or despite any hand wringing of the liberal mindset that fears loss of rights or invasion of privacy, DFCs are being established in a concerted effort by the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice to provide access to actionable information in real time across jurisdictions and across agencies.

Homeland intelligence chief lists risks
After 47 years spent gathering and analyzing foreign intelligence at the CIA, Charles Allen is facing perhaps his biggest career challenge in developing a homeland intelligence capability. He now must gain the respect of the U.S. intelligence community for the Homeland Security Department, where he has spent just over a year as chief intelligence officer…

…One of Allen’s innovations is to send intelligence officers to state and local "fusion centers," created in 43 locations around the country to blend law enforcement information and intelligence analysis collected at the local level.

Allen now has officers stationed in 12 of the fusion centers, following visits by assessment teams that determined whether each center was advanced enough and was interested in having a federal intelligence officer on staff…[more]

Localities Operate Intelligence Centers To Pool Terror Data
‘Fusion’ Facilities Raise Privacy Worries As Wide Range of Information Is Collected

Frustrated by poor federal cooperation, U.S. states and cities are building their own network of intelligence centers led by police to help detect and disrupt terrorist plots.

The new "fusion centers" are now operating in 37 states, including Virginia and Maryland, and another covers the Washington area, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The centers, which have received $380 million in federal support since the 2001 terrorist attacks, pool and analyze information from local, state and federal law enforcement officials.

The emerging "network of networks" marks a new era of opportunity for law enforcement, according to U.S. officials and homeland security experts…

This is one of the more important trends of today’s world.  As an overview, you can look into the Office of Justice Programs, Information Technology Initiatives website that compiles discussions of the Global Justice Information Sharing Initiative, the Justice Standards for fusion centers, a discussion and explanation of the Global Justice XML Data Model (Global JXDM) and the National Information Exchange Model.

For additional  reference you can look once again at the Information Sharing Environment Implementation Plan and the Fusion Center Guidelines—Developing and Sharing Information in a New Era

Ask the question of what all this is about.  ”What Is a Fusion Center?
A fusion center is an effective and efficient mechanism to exchange information and intelligence, maximize resources, streamline operations, and improve the ability to fight crime and terrorism by merging data from a variety of sources. In addition, fusion centers are a conduit for implementing portions of the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan (NCISP).”
  Critical to this overall effort is the belief that "although each fusion center will have unique characteristics, it is important for centers to operate under a consistent framework— similar to the construction of a group of buildings where each structure is unique, yet a consistent set of building codes and regulations are adhered to regardless of the size or shape of the building."

Also see: Data Fusion Centers - National & Local

It is a coming of age of American law enforcement and national security and intelligence components for there to be a realization that "we must stand together" and share information across disparate organizations and cultures in real time.  This is an evolution of information sharing.  It is a time when "virtual data warehouses" will be linked by specialized user interfaces to permit seamless and transparent sharing of information that before was never possible.  You don’t have direct access to my information, but you do have the "key" with which to search for information within my data.

This is a transformation of law enforcement.  Imagine a fugitive child abuser or a wife beater from one city or jurisdiction being arrested for a DWI in another city.  Before being arraigned for the drunk driving charge, a data sharing operation occurs and it is found that the same guy is wanted on other charges, perhaps more serious, in another location.

If you fear the imaginary loss of privacy or loss of rights that permits information sharing across jurisdictions, then perhaps you really do have something to fear.  In a simplified way, data fusion and information sharing will make it harder and harder for criminals to flee from one city or state and go to another, only to repeat crimes.

"… The ultimate goal of a fusion center is to provide a mechanism where law enforcement, public safety, and private partners can come together with a common purpose and improve the ability to safeguard our homeland and prevent criminal activity. A police officer, fireman, or building inspector should not have to search for bits of information. They should know to call one particular place—the jurisdiction’s fusion center…"

But fusion plays an even greater and more important role when it comes to deployment of resources in the event of a natural disaster or terorrist event.  And perhaps more importantly, it will enable officials to know if someone seeking a license, whether a "simple" drivers’ license or more critically, someone trying to get a license to transport hazardous materials, for example, might either be an illegal alien, or wanted for some other crime or infraction in a different part of the country.  Think I made this one up?  Think again!

New York Joint Terrorist Task Force and Rhode Island State Fusion Center apprehend person of interest..
…Last month a Highway Watch® participant made a report to the program’s Call Center regarding suspected suspicious behavior by a commercial driver student seeking a HAZMAT endorsement. That person was later identified as Mohammed Yusef Mullawala, an Indian resident of Pakistani descent. The Call Center subsequently relayed the information to the Highway Watch® Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC) for validation and analysis. The Highway Watch® ISAC supports federal, state, and local law enforcement, as well as other entities responsible for national security, with unique intelligence analysis and assessment gathered from Highway Watch® participants and other sources. After the information was validated a classified “Advisory” was issued to law enforcement agencies nationwide.

A joint investigation was initiated by investigators from the Rhode Island State Fusion Center, the Federal Bureau of Investigation Joint Terrorism Task Force in Rhode Island , New York & New Jersey, and the Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Investigators learned that Yusef possessed driver’s licenses in three different states, including New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island . Investigators also learned that when Mohammed Yusef Mullawala obtained his driver’s license from the Rhode Island Registry of Motor Vehicles, he had provided a false statement indicating that he was a Rhode Island resident. The Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement conducted an inquiry concerning Mohammed Yusef Mullawala’s immigration status, determined that Mohammed Yusef Mullawala was a citizen of India, was in the United State s on a temporary student visa, and that the visa had expired. Based on this information, the Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement obtained an administrative warrant for Mohammed Yusef Mullawala’s arrest.

On December 5, 2006, Mullawala was taken into custody by Rhode Island authorities and was turned over to the Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He will be in custody until a hearing is held at Immigration Court in Boston, which is expected to occur within the next few weeks.

“This investigation shows how effective we can be when Federal, State, and Local law enforcement agencies work together to protect our nation’s homeland security,” said Bill Jacobs, VP of Highway Watch®. “We’re pleased to have been a part of this investigation…”

The jostling for position (and the funding and recognition) is already getting old.  Competition for these fusion centers is hot and heavy.  Potential conflict between states and regions to house and manage these centers is obvious to some.  The question is not if, but when the network of statewide and regional fusion centers will go online and provide a completed national network for law enforcement, homeland security and homeland defense.

A friend of mine wrote this to me recently relating to the creation of fusion/data centers:  "Fusion is not simply connecting to large volumes of information, and letting technology search and connect the pieces to provide warning and operational pictures.  Not looking at the realities of how information has to be analyzed and assembled to support a variety of end uses, nor accepting the analytical process as a mix of technical and art forms…An analyst can be given all the technology and tools, but if he/she doesn’t have the ‘nose,’ they won’t produce very much."   Ultimately, the success of a fusion center, or a network of like centers has to blend "discipline entrenched attitudes in order to create an ability for them to appreciate multi disciplined problems."

Further, in explaining how these data fusion centers must combine resources, I was told that "…Homeland Security and Homeland Defense are not unique disciplines…each is a "discipline of disciplines."  I was told to picture it as a three-legged stool, with the seat being the base that provides identification of sources, connectivity, information processing and sharing, analysis, products, etc.  The three legs are the principal operational arenas… of public safety, responders and critical infrastructure.  Public safety is dominated by law enforcement and paramilitary efforts…For responders, the dominant leadership rests with the emergency managers and firemen as the primary solution area…The third leg, and probably the most important in addressing threat, risk, warning indicators and mitigation, response and recovery is the critical infrastructure.  Critical infrastructure has no champion, or dominant voice.  It calls for public/private partnerships in that it is more than inventories and individual vulnerabilities.  Interdependencies in disaster resilience have to be addressed…

Therefore, the establishment of a fusion center, especially one that serves a particular region under a broader statewide umbrella is a significant undertaking, and one that requires the ability to bring together the agendas and "personalities" of the individual components.  As with many other programs, it may well be that the hand of the "manager" is needed to superimpose the "good of all" over the agendas of each.

If you’ve heard (or read) any of this before, then maybe you know what I am writing about…and why.

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Year-end observations — 2006

Posted by StormWarning on 30 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, International Issues, National Security, Opinions

As we reach another turn of the year, many blogs are going to post their predictions for 2007. It is not at all surprising that the Counterterrorism Blog was listed as one of the “Best Blogs of ‘06″ for best “investigative reporting” and “jihadist” research information. Congratulations are in order for Andrew Cochran and the rest of the CT Blog panel of experts for providing their insight and analysis on the issues of the day, and providing some of the raw material on which observers like myself can launch from.

It is also not surprising that this one article grouped together most of the rest of blogdom as being composed of many sites that have created “instant experts in counterterrorism.” Of course, I am not an expert in counterterrorism. My interest and involvement in terrorism and counter-X (including counter-narcotics) happens to originate all the way back to the middle 1990’s…it didn’t begin the morning of September 11th. Alas, while I am somewhat of an expert in my field that falls within the realm of homeland security, and I am an avid reader of original source documents relating to terrorism and security, and I am what some people would call a “policy wonk” when it comes to Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, I do not qualify as an “expert” in counterterrorism, nor do I purport to be one. So, while you must take what I write with a grain of salt, I would also suggest that there are many notable sites discussing terrorism that are excluded from the list in addition to Stormwarning’s Counterterrorism.

US News and World Report “Best Blogs of ‘06″ Lists Counterterrorism Blog

I start by yielding to Doug Farah’s post Lessons Learned in 2006
The primary lesson I take away from 2006 is that we often do not believe what we see in front of us, to our own detriment and danger.

This can also be viewed on the Counterterrorism Blog.

Farah’s words are words to be remembered. My list of “predictions” (perhaps better labeled observations – and by no means a complete list) for the coming year includes the following:

1. The spread of global terrorism – I believe that we have yet to grasp the nature of the enemy. In fact, I believe that largely, we do not really know our enemy at all. Partially, that is because we continue to approach this Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) more in a conventional way than in what I see it to be. The GWOT is as much a battle of societies and sociology as it is a battle between suicide bombers or insurgents and those who seek to stop their attacks with guns and tanks. This is also less about nation states sponsoring terrorism than it is the transformation to terrorism of disenchanted, disadvantaged individuals who seek answers to their plights through the social structure that is available to them. Not that much unlike gang mentality, men and women are attracted to jihadist or terrorist groups (cells) by a desire for social bonding. The stated hatred for the West and America (and therefore Israel) becomes the byproduct of adopting the jihadist, fundamentalist Islamic ways. It is important to also remember the tenets of the treatise written by Spanish-Syrian strategist Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, Da’wat al-muqawamah al-islamiyyah al-’alamiyyah (”The Call for a Global Islamic Resistance”). Key is that the document espouses the concept of “nizam, la tanzim,” or ‘System, not organisation.’ Jihadist groups should develop a template that allows them to create structures wherever they are, and carry out recruitment, fund-raising and attacks. What this means is that no single terrorist is now essential to the jihad…its the system, not the organization.  However, the “parent company” of al Qaeda, as contrasted with the al Qaeda clones, will remain a force behing the spread of terrorism.

As a result, I can see no immediate end to the spread of Islamic, al Qaeda style jihadist terrorism. Already we have indigenous or nearly indigenous systems of jihadist terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq, and some, despite current proclamations of the pushing back of the ICU, soon in Somalia. A quick review of the rest of the world would show additional “hot spots” in Thailand, in the Philippines and in Indonesia…and you can also see the sprouting of unsettlement and disenchantment in South and Central America. I have written here on a number of occasions that the spread of terrorism should be looked at as similar to the spread of a virus, a global pandemic.

Among other references (including other posts on this blog), one interesting article is KNOWING THE ENEMY, Can social scientists redefine the “war on terror”?

2. The Middle East and its affect on Global instability (the 3 “I’s”)
Israel: Nothing has been settled in the Middle East. Israel continues to be a target of various terrorist organizations ranging from Hamas and Hezbollah to Fatah and al Aksa Martyrs. But beyond that, the Palestinian State as it is, remains unviable. As long as that continues, there is no hope for a peaceful settlement in Israel.

Iraq: Today’s execution of Hussein in Iraq, for all of his crimes against humanity, will not end the violence there. In fact, after a lull, perhaps because of the Muslim holiday of Eid, it is likely that another upsurge in violence will occur. Just how long the experiment in democracy in Iraq can last before full scale sectarian conflict erupts remains one of the key questions. Frankly, I believe that this is one of the most underestimated elements of the War in Iraq, and therefore one of the most likely sources of violence in the months ahead. Also as discussed by Evan Kohlmann in his “State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006″

Here is the link to Evan’s blog and the discussion of the Iraq Insurgency.

The influence of al Qaeda in Iraq has expanded, not contracted, since the death of Zarqawi in June 2006. The consolidation of Sunni groups under the al Qaeda influence and banner. The future impact of this cannot be calculated in my opinion.  AQI will continue to be an issue to be dealt with.

Iran: How will Iran turn out? The year 2007 will give us answers about how deranged Ahmadinejad really is, or whether, like many leader like him, there is a driven substance to his madness. Are they, or will Iran go nuclear in 2007? The nuclear issue in Iran will certainly be raised this year.  We can only pray that Iran’s threats do not happen, ever. But there is absolutely no reason to expect that 2007 will be a year in which nation state sponsored terrorism will cease.  Is there a possibility of conflict?  Could be…lots of sabre-rattling already.  I hope that there won’t be another U.S. military front opened in Iran, but who really knows?

3. Global Instability – We do not live in a safe world.
Lebanon and Syria: Syria’s intentions have yet to be fully revealed. Their support of terrorism is known. What their intentions are relative to weaponry (especially the possibility of nuclear or chemical/biological weapons) remains speculative.  And it remains to be proven or disproven whether Syria is a bigger player via Hussein’s weapons.  The pieces of the Middle Eastern chessboard are complex.

The Philippines: Despite the recent death of the leader of Abu Sayyaff (“Abu Sayyaf Chieftain Khadaffy Janjalani Reported Killed”) to think that the years’ long conflict in the Philippines will stop would be naïve.  I look for an expansion of Abu Sayyaf related terrorist attacks and a closer linkage with the global terorrist movement.

Afghanistan: I continue to find it a bit mind blowing to believe that in some quarters people believe that Afghanistan is stable and that the Taliban is out of the picture. Today I believe that I read one article in which Karzai pleaded with the people to stop supporting the foreigners (“strangers”) who were fighting with the Taliban.  Karzai will have a tough time staying alive, let alone stay in control of this fragile balance between peace and a re-Talibanization.  The Taliban are not “dead” as NATO boy once insisted.  I wonder how far their resurgence will carry them.

AFGHANISTAN: Karzai vs. the Warlords

Afghan leader urges end to Taliban insurgency

Myanmar (Burma): This is another area of instability, and even with the recent death of the leader of the insurgency, Bo Mya, continuing violence and unrest should be expected. Can it spread to the rest of the region? Of course! Myanmar borders Thailand where Islamic stresses continue.

Thailand: The south of Thailand continues to be an area of violence and growing Muslim influence. As written, “Three killed in Thailand’s restive south

Drive-by shootings and bombings occur almost daily in Thailand’s three southernmost Muslim-majority provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani, where an Islamic insurgency that flared in January 2004 has killed more than 1,900 people.

Why should we expect this violence to stop?

4. The Internet and terrorism – It has been well documented that the jihad is being spread through the Internet. What is often not discussed is that through the Internet and through access to global media (television especially), the ways of the West are brought to those who become the new terrorists. This is something that we cannot stop. It is simply something that needs to be understood and considered.

5. Secure Identification Documents – In a way, IMO, the term “secure document” is a non-sequitor. Certainly, the federal government would argue that the Transportation Workers Identification Card or the Common Access Credential both represent secure documents. As time passes, perhaps with all of the regulations (HSPD 12 and FIPS 201 for example), these will prove out. But how about the electronic passport (e-passport)? Is it secure? If you believe the numerous and increasing reports about the RFID chips embedded in such secure documents being cloned, then you’ve got to wonder if they are truly secure. Thus, I believe that the recent upsurge in identity theft and the relationship of forged and counterfeit documents to illegal immigration will continue. I’d watch for additional disclosures of phony documents to play a role in the events of 2007.

6. Border (In)security – This blog has had many posts during the past year on our insecure border with Mexico, and the impact of illegal immigration. Not the Democrats and not the Republicans can stop this. IMO, building a wall, whether virtual or physical, is only a small measure. Unfortunately, the Border Patrol and ICE are not capable of performing the National Security roles needed to protect US citizens from terrorists or drug lords flowing across the Southern border with Mexico. It may be time for militarizing the border. There! I said it. Perhaps we need to go beyond sending National Guard to the border as was done in Arizona. Yes, suspend the Posse Comitatus Act. Here is a very good article from the Journal of Homeland Security, “The Myth of Posse Comitatus.”

“…does the act present a major barrier at the National Command Authority level to use of military forces in the battle against terrorism? The numerous exceptions and policy shifts carried out over the past 20 years strongly indicate that it does not. Could anyone seriously suggest that it is appropriate to use the military to interdict drugs and illegal aliens but preclude the military from countering terrorist threats that employ weapons of mass destruction? For two decades the military has been increasingly used as an auxiliary to civilian law enforcement when the capabilities of the police have been exceeded. Under both the statutory and constitutional exceptions that have permitted the use of the military in law enforcement since 1980, the president has ample authority to employ the military in homeland defense against the threat of weapons of mass destruction in terrorist hands…”

7. The continuing merging of the War on Terrorism and the War on Drugs - While this is related to the issue of border security, I see the intertwining of drugs and terrorism to continue in the New Year. Why is this important? Not only do illegal narcotics represent a serious threat to our Nation, but the illicit drug trade also presents opportunities for terrorist funding.  There is an unquestionable linkage (at least in my mind) between terrorism and illegal narcotics, and that connection is very dangerous.

8. Attacks – I have no crystal ball and while we can all pray that nothing like September 11th 2001 (New York, Washington DC) or July 7th 2005 (London) or March 7th 2004 (Madrid) or October 1st 2005 (Bali) ever repeats it would be naïve to believe that another major attack will not occur. It has been pretty quiet lately. It is unrealistic to expect this quiet to continue for much longer. Whether or not we in this country have become too complacent, and whether that attack will occur on our soil is beyond my speculation.  Watch the Pacific Rim and South Asia.

9. Wild Ass Guesses

a. The “next” terrorist attack, wherever it occurs, will be unconventional. The most likely form is a radiological weapon or dirty bomb. We can only hope that it is limited in scope (my guess is South Asia). Another anthrax type attack is not beyond imagination.

b. Terrorism and the growth of Islamic, fundamentalist jihadism will occur in the Western Hemisphere:

  • There will be further and growing social and political instability in Mexico
  • Hugo Chavez’ influence in South America will expand as he continues to provide financing for insurgency activities (and watch for his involvement outside of SA).

The tri-border area, where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina meet, is a lawless region where drugs trafficking, gun running and counterfeit goods are rife.

The BBC has now found documents showing the suspicious transfer of large sums of money to the Middle East, which investigators believe goes to fund terrorism.

c. Karzai’s government in Afghanistan will succumb to increasing pressures from the previously “defunct” but resurrected Taliban. To a degree, this will be a result of Pakistan’s willingness to negotiate and make concessions with the Taliban.  Watch Pakistan closely and we’ll see how stable even the Musharraf regime is at the end of 2007 (after all, Musharraf took power in a coup).  Since the border between these two countries is arbitrary, I’d expect the influence of the Taliban to expand on both sides.  On the extreme end, I wonder if one or both will still be alive.

d. The Iraqi conflict will expand, leading to a separatist movement by Kurdistan. This will both inflame the Shi’a and Sunni segments of the Iraqi Government, but also enrage Turkey.  I simply cannot see Turkey standing by and watching the emergence of democracy in Kurdistan idly.

e. Despite the recent successes of Ethiopia in “routing” the ICU in Somalia, Somalia will become the next battleground in the Global War on Terror. This will hasten the U.S. military establishing the Africa Command, which will be brought into the fighting, opening a potential third battlefront.

f. Continued terrorists attacks in India and the skirmishes between India and Pakistan on their border will continue to flare-up, leading to a nuclear showdown.  The Pakistani-Indian nuclear stand-off could well accelerate.

g. Putin and Russia will move further away from its friendly position with the West and with the U.S. Putin is dangerous, even if “trusted” by GW (question: Russian democracy?).  The fall-out from the Litvinenko murder by Polonium 210 is still unresolved, and probably will be the most blogged and unsolved “about” during 2006.  IMO, the only way that it is an important event is if it is shown that it was smuggling operation gone bad and that Polonium 210 could be used in a dirty bomb.  Otherwise, despite the attention paid to it here and elsewhere, it was a “Grade B” spy movie.

h. Despite all of the other rhetoric, the Democrats will have little choice but to maintain the stance of the Global War on Terrorism, even if open debate and budget battles create uproars within the conservative communities.

i. Senator Clinton will not run for President (I’m still not even sure that she will win the Democratic nomination, but this is still over a year away). But don’t look for Al Gore to try to run again. Neither will John Kerry.

j. Dick Cheney will not serve out the remainder of the term.

k. Very little of substance will be accomplished in the next Congress that starts on January 4, 2007.

Of course, I run the risk of being wrong on every one of these “predictions” but that is what predictions are for.  Additionally, I’ll probably realize later that I’ve missed one or two very important issues.

I thank my friend Moon for giving me this opportunity and allowing me to use his Webdream to write this blog. And I especially thank the many people who have found their way to this place and often spent time reading my ramblings and following some of the links to articles that I have considered meaningful. I do wish that more people would comment and use this place to voice an opinion on these subjects, but perhaps that will come in 2007.

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DHS Announces “No New Year’s Eve Threat”

Posted by StormWarning on 29 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, Domestic Terrorism, International Issues, National Security, Opinions

After all of the debate and hubbub about Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s approach to security…especially to the measures taken with backpack searches and subway security after the London attacks, the Department of Homeland Security has declared: 1) New Years’ Eve is safe with no known threats; 2) NY City is a "model" for holiday security.

Official: No known New Year’s terror threats
Homeland Security doesn’t see any heightened risk due to Saddam verdict
Americans should ring in the new year without undue worry about a terrorist attack, the White House homeland security adviser said Thursday.

“People ought to come, have a good time, they ought to feel confident,” Frances Fragos Townsend said in a nationally broadcast television interview.

Townsend said that while the Bush administration takes every threat seriously, it has heard of no plot or plan that should cause alarm as the nation celebrates New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day…

Somehow I didn’t realize that Ms. Townsend was still around.

White House adviser says NYC a model for holiday security
Townsend said that she and other administration officials have been coordinating closely with local law enforcement agencies in preparation for the New Year’s celebrations, noting she’d spent a day with New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly.

   "They laid out what their security plan is. New York is a model of how a large city, an urban government, approaches this," she said.

   "Everybody (in law enforcement) works on New Years’ Eve. People ought to come, have a good time, ought to feel confident.

… We feel real confident of the steps police departments are taking."

   Townsend said that federal officials "don’t see a particular threat geared toward" observations of the New Year’s holiday.

New Years preparations begin in NYC
12/27/2006 8:30  PM

an estimated one million people are expected to be in Times Square, and once again this year, security will be tight.

Previously:
New York City Underground Tunnels Vulnerable to Attack
24 Dec 2006

NYPD Buys and Deploys Explosive Detection Equipment
26 Jul 2006

Thoughts on the NYC Subway Threat
7 Oct 2005


NYC Subway - A Few Got Advanced Warning
13 Oct 2005


NY City’s Secret War on Terror
4 Oct 2005

I’m still having a problem adjusting to Central Time and knowing that when the ball drops in Times Square, I’ll still have an hour to go.

Storm, who is praying for a peaceful and joyous New Year’s Eve throughout the country and the world…but especially in New York City (for personal reasons)…[I hate tempting fate] 

"Getting a big group of people together is always something you worry about terrorism, but I think that every bit of evidence shows that you are probably safer on New Years Eve in Times Square than any place else," said New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

"We have no known threats to New York, certainly something we monitor very closely, all indications it will be a very happy and festive evening," said Police Commissioner Ray Kelly.

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Illegal Immigration and ID Theft

Posted by StormWarning on 28 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, Federal Policy, National Security, Opinions

The linkage of illegal immigration with identity theft seemingly hit the national consciousness a couple of weeks ago when there were raids on six meat packing plants.  I don’t know why it took so long, and certainly, its been on my personal radar screen since before September 11, 2001 (but that’s an entirely different story).

Let’s start by comparing two articles from the Christian Science Monitor…one from the beginning of 2006 and the other from last week.

Across the country, many mobilize against illegal immigration (January 23, 2006) Immigration has become an increasingly contentious political and social issue around the country.

Organizations patterned after the controversial "Minuteman Project" along the US-Mexico border have sprung up in New England, the Midwest, the South, and the Pacific Northwest. This has led to demonstrations and shouting matches with those opposed to what they call "vigilantes…"

…Concerns over terrorism, identity theft, and the national methamphetamine epidemic (which is fueled by Mexican drug cartels and Hispanic gangs operating far from the border) are part of the picture…

…There are about 11 million illegal immigrants in the US today, a figure that grows by some 500,000 a year, according to the Center for Immigration Studies. In a recent paper, the center’s research director, Steven Camarota, reports that there now are more than 35 million immigrants (legal and illegal) living in the US. That amounts to more than 12 percent of the total population, the highest percentage in eight decades…

…In the post-9/11 era, attitudes toward foreign immigration are unique in some ways. But there are similarities to the 1850s and the early 20th century, when violent reactions to immigrants - charges that they took jobs, caused crime, and were not loyal to the US - were common…

I’ll stop here to comment that the CSM position is crap in my opinion! Many, if not most, of the immigrants in previous periods did not skulk into the country illegally.  Aside from that, you cannot compare sentiment in the post September 11th environment to any other period in American history.  Add to that the obvious, the illegal still means illegal, and there difference is in the fact that the immigration debate today is focused on those who came to this country illegally.  Both sets of my grandparents came to the United States legally, with papers, and  became proud naturalized citizens, worked hard, went to university, became professionals and raised families.  Legally!  If it hasn’t already become apparent to people reading this blog, I have little (actually no) tolerance for illegal immigration.  So anyway, here is the second and most recent article from the Christian Science Monitor.

An illegal immigration link to identity theft (December 14, 2006 )
The latest roundup of illegal immigrants caught working in the US with fraudulent identifications - the largest single such work-site action ever - raises new questions about a link between illegal immigration and the growing problem of identity theft.

Federal raids Tuesday at six meat-processing plants owned by Swift & Co. in six states resulted in the arrests of 1,282 people for immigration violation - with 65 also charged with identify theft or other criminal charges…[you could argue that that's only 5% of those seized who were delving into ID theft, but that is a large number when projected against the "population" of 12+ million illegal immigrants in this country]

…"We believe that the genuine identities of possibly hundreds of US citizens are being stolen or hijacked by criminal organizations and sold to illegal aliens in order to gain unlawful employment in this country," said Julie Myers, ICE assistant secretary. She called it "a disturbing front in the war against illegal immigration…"

…On one of Phoenix’s quiet residential streets lined with stucco tract homes live two men who came to the US illegally but gained legal status - along with some 3 million others - under the federal 1986 amnesty program. David and Raul, who will give only first names, are in the business of helping newly arrived illegal immigrants acquire fake documents.

They are not part of an organized crime family, they say - just part of a network of established immigrants who help others attain what they’ve achieved. They are, in effect, the go-betweens from those who bring the immigrants and those who make the fake ID papers - a service they say they provide for free…[do we need any more reason to oppose an amnesty program than the role that those given amnesty might have on future waves of illegal immigrants?]

The fake ID business: some previous busts
April 2005: In Florida, immigration agents arrested 52, including several state Department of Motor Vehicles officials, alleged to be part of a scheme to make and sell fake driver’s licenses and hazmat licenses to more than 2,000 illegal immigrants. The same month, other sweeps revealed fraudulent license schemes in Michigan and Maryland.

May 2005: In Mississippi, Cedric Carpenter and Lamont Ranson pleaded guilty to conspiring to sell fake documents to members of Abu Sayyaf, a Philippines-based Islamist terrorist group.

February 2006: A lieutenant in the Mexican-based Castorena family organization, a fraudulent document outfit that controls cells in 33 states, was sentenced in Denver to 11 years in prison. More than 50 members of this international counterfeit operation have been prosecuted in Denver alone. Its leader, Pedro Castorena-Ibarra, was arrested in June by Mexican officers and is awaiting extradition to the US.

March 2006: Agents busted seven counterfeit-document labs in Los Angeles and charged 11 people with supplying fraudulent immigration and identity documents.

June 2006: In Boston, immigration agents arrested nine people accused of running a phony document ring. They seized document-forging tools and six computers at five homes. The sweeps led to the arrests of 13 undocumented Brazilian and Guatemalan nationals.

Sources: US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Associated Press

So, what do you have in comparing the two articles from the same publication?  The first cries about the social injustices and bias toward immigrants (illegal) and the second highlights a major security issue for the U.S.  And the difference is only 11 months!

Here are a few more links to follow:

ID thieves targeted in immigration raids
…ICE chief Julie L. Myers told reporters in Washington that agents had uncovered a scheme in which illegal immigrants and others had stolen or bought the identities and Social Security numbers of possibly hundreds of U.S. citizens and lawful residents to get jobs with Greeley-based meat processor Swift & Co…

Illegal Workers Arrested In 6-State ID Theft Sweep
…The sweep also highlighted flaws in the main program through which the government helps employers authenticate workers’ identification documents, underscoring how weak government ID requirements and poor coordination with the Social Security Administration have frustrated enforcers for decades. Swift has been participating in the program for years.

Yesterday’s raid "shows the weakness of the current system, the ways illegal workers have been able to find employment in the legitimate economy, and the need for enforcement efforts to focus on the work site and not just the border," said Deborah W. Meyers, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington…

…In 1998, similar raids at 40 meatpacking plants in and around Nebraska found that nearly 20 percent of workers had invalid documents. The vast majority disappeared before questioning…

Immigration raid linked to ID theft, Chertoff says
…Julie Myers, the assistant secretary of Homeland Security for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), called identity theft the largest and fastest growing crime in America.

"This case illustrates that illegal immigration may be a driving force behind this growth," Myers said…[more]

Excuse me while I breathe a second…[whew!].  Now, if someone out there, especially one of the "feds" who sometimes browse through here wants to have a serious talk about document security, post a comment and I’ll keep it quiet, or send me an email, LOL (I’d list my email address, but I’m afraid of identity theft)…

But this isn’t and hasn’t been a secret!  Here is an article from 2003 from the Center for Immigration Studies that discusses "America’s Identity Crisis  Document Fraud is Pervasive and Pernicious."  Lets get this straight!  The starting point of illegal identity documents is the birth certificate…it is the breeder document…from a birth certificate flows the ability to get a drivers’ license, a social security card and essentially freedom to operate in the United States as an illegal alien.

In 1986 Congress passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act, a key element of which was sanctions against employers who hired illegal aliens. This act had the unintended consequence of accelerating the proliferation of counterfeit, stolen, and illegally obtained Social Security cards and driver’s licenses, which are the most frequently provided documents used to demonstrate authorization to work in the United States. Birth certificates are one of many so-called “breeder” documents that are often used to obtain Social Security cards and driver’s licenses.

Increasingly, illegal alien job seekers are choosing to buy counterfeit U.S. birth certificates or to obtain a copy of an authentic one using fraudulent means. It is well worth the effort. A false claim of U.S. citizenship bypasses the risk and high cost of submitting phony work authorization documents.

Birth certificate fraud occurs in three ways: a counterfeit certificate is created, an original certificate itself is altered, or a duplicate certificate is obtained by an imposter. Susan Martin, former Executive Director of the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform, testified before a Congressional subcommittee in 1999 about why birth certificate fraud is so rampant. According to Ms. Martin, at the time the commission made its investigations, in addition to state registrars, there were about 7,000 local registrars issuing certified copies of birth certificates. The majority of requests for birth certificates were by mail and most were made for administrative or legal purposes such as verifying age, citizenship, or parental relationship to obtain Social Security cards, passports, and driver’s licenses.

Requests for certified copies of birth certificates are handled either in person or by mail, the latter offering more opportunity for fraud. For instance, someone seeking a new identity can read a newspaper’s obituary section, obtain the name and birth date of someone of similar age, and request a certified copy of that individual’s birth certificate. However, that method requires a certain amount of patience and luck.

A far easier way now exists to take the first step in stealing someone’s identity. State and local registrars are required by law to make birth and death records public, which has typically meant giving access to the physical records at government offices. Today, however, the risk exists that millions of these records could be obtained by anyone with an Internet connection.

If you needed any more proof of the severity of the issue of counterfeit ID documents and their relationship to ID theft and security, please look at this:  The Year of the Data Breach – 2006 Dramatically       Changed the Identity Theft Landscape.

In my "considered" opinion we have a serious problem here.  Without getting into any detail at all, this country is now engaged in developing ID cards for the government and the military (eg., the TWIC and the CAC), and with the coming of the implementation (or not) of the very expensive for the 50 states of the Real ID Act of 2005, supposedly, a uniform ID credential for all Americans ("yes Virginia, you can call that a National Identity Card if you’d like").  The problem is that implementation of the Real ID Act is likely to be spotty and elongated.  And my question will remain, what will keep "those who wish to do" when it comes to counterfeiting even that?  There may be many answers to that question.  I know of at least one compelling one.  "Call me."

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Somalia - The Coming Insurgency?

Posted by StormWarning on 28 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions

The Ethiopian attack of Mogadishu has seemingly succeeded in routing the ICU (originally it was planned as a siege), with the fighters of the ICU "fleeing."  Is that what has really happened…is that really the result?  There are some much more authoritative writers than I who believe that there is alot more to this, and that strategies have shifted quickly…the ICU may now be planning to mount an insurgency to battle against a weak central government in the Transitional Federal Government (lessons learned???).

Mogadishu retaken as Somali Islamists flee
Somali government forces, supported by Ethiopian soldiers, entered Mogadishu this morning after the leaders of Islamist militias that have controlled the city since June fled last night. [As "challenged" as my writing style may often be, I'm glad that I didn't write that paragraph!]

A spokesman for the interim Government said that Somali soldiers backed by Ethiopian tanks and aircraft started moving into the outskirts of the city after seizing the main roads in Mogadishu early today…

abandoned its plan for a siege and decided to take Mogadishu after being told that the leaders of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) had left their base and that armed clans were beginning to loot the city, which has around 2 million inhabitants.

"People were crying for the Government to come as early as possible so we changed our plan," said the spokesman. "The Government is now calming the situation and telling the militias to go to camps to avoid clashes. The Government is being welcomed…"

Insurgency by the ICU versus Somali militias vying for control?

Islamic forces abandon Somalia’s capital, clan militias begin taking control Posted 12/28/2006 4:47 AM ET

Somalia’s Islamic movement abandoned the nation’s capital on Thursday and clan militiamen poured into the streets to take control of Mogadishu, as government forces approached to within 30 kilometers (18 miles)…

In Mogadishu, gunfire echoed through the streets and hundreds of gunmen, who just hours earlier fought for Quranic rule, took off their Islamic uniforms and submitted to the command of clan elders, an AP reporter in Mogadishu said.

Some began looting Islamic courts’ bases and buildings belonging to Islamic courts officials, witnesses said.

"I have seen that the Islamists are defeated. I’m going to rejoin my clan," said gunman Mohamed Barre Sidow. "I was forced to join the Islamic courts by my clan, so I now I will return to my clan and they will decide my fate, whether I join the government or not…"

Somalia’s complex clan system has been the basis of politics and identity here for centuries. But due to clan fighting, the country has not had an effective government since 1991, when clan-based warlords overthrew a dictator and then turned on one another.

Two years ago, the United Nations helped set up the interim government. It has been unable to assert much authority, in part because it has been weakened by clan rivalries.

The competition for control of Mogadishu since 1991 has involved the Abgal and Habr Gadir clans, who came together earlier this year to support the Islamic council. If Abgal elders switch allegiance to the government, probably in return for key government posts, urban warfare between the Abgal and Habr Gadir clans would surely resume…[more]

So what we have here is a country, a failed country at that, with an inability to form a stable government, and with a traditional clan structure of society…and with clans fighting to control the government/country…a country with disease and poverty…a country in a strategically important location, the Horn of Africa.  IMO, that does not bode well for a stable region.

Analysis: a military victory but Somalia vacuum looms
"The Islamic court militias, mainly made up of young, badly-trained fighters had no answer to the well-drilled, well-equipped Ethiopians and were defeated again and again…

"Among these hardliners are a group known as the Shabbab: young fighters, fundamentalists, some of whom are Afghan-trained. They are believed to be responsible for the murder of Kate Peyton, the BBC producer, in Mogadishu last year and various attacks on aid workers.

"They really have no option but to fight. They are regarded as outlaws by the Government and may have the capability to launch a prolonged guerrilla war.

"Somalia’s problem now is that there is a political vacuum, much in the same way there was six months ago…[more]

Somalia: Clan infighting erupts in Mogadishu

One major development since my story was posted is that the ICU has now surrendered Mogadishu to the transitional government. For an excellent summary, see Bill Roggio’s post on the ICU’s fall. I spoke with a military intelligence source yesterday who emphasized the importance of not getting "too cocky" about the Ethiopians’ success, because a number of things could still go wrong. The reports of ICU forces repeatedly dispersing without a fight, coupled with the rhetoric coming from ICU leadership, suggests that the group is planning on turning to insurgent fighting. My source also expressed concerns that the transitional government may not have enough forces to hold cities that it captured during this military campaign, and that he’s unsure how long the Ethiopians can sustain the campaign.

There is still much work to be done to ensure that Somalia doesn’t backslide and again become a haven for jihadists. But it’s clear that the ICU is now giving up on the army vs. army phase of combat, an outcome that did not appear inevitable at the outset.

Bill Roggio’s post suggests the shifting strategy of the ICU toward an insurgency:

…The Ethiopians are looking for a quick exit from Somalia, and have indicated they will leave soon. "Once we accomplish the mission – half is already over and the rest will not take long – we will leave," said Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

The Islamic Courts are signaling they will conduct an insurgency. The call for its fighters to blend into the population with their AK-47s is one sign. ICU leaders are giving all of the indications an insurgency is in the works. "Our snakes of defense were let loose, now they are ready to bite the enemy everywhere in Somalia," said Sheik Mohamoud Ibrahim Suley. "We will fight Ethiopia for a very long time, and we expect the war to reach everywhere,” according to an ICU statement. Even the resignation of the ICU leaders in Mogadishu indicated the ICU still wants to enforce sharia and calls for its fighters to "secure the stability and get ready in the police stations and other security stations."

The ICU may also be working to integrate its security forces and other elements of the organization into the new, TFG led government to destroy it from within…

The referred to posts from Pajamas Media:

Why Ethiopia is Winning in Somalia
December 27, 2006  8:23 AM

Afghanistan Again: Somalia Falling to Al Qaeda
December 22, 2006  8:29 AM

You might also wish to refer to this article in TIME Magazine, A Dark Deja Vu in Somalia: Analysis: The war between Islamist rebels and neighboring Ethiopia recalls an era when the agendas driving Africa’s conflicts were never exclusively local, even if most of the victims were

Comments: The unfolding of events in Somalia and the surrounding region will continue through the New Year’s weekend.  Underestimating the role and motivations of the Ethiopian government or the Islamic Courts Union would be a mistake.  Recognizing the more global implications, including the prospect of the U.S. creating an Africa Command, likewise has implications for the future.  Personally, I find it to be an unavoidable conclusion that the War of Terrorism will continue to be a multi-front war, and not one that can be waged by the United States alone.  Regardless of the motivations of the Ethiopians, they have recognized the threat posed by al Qaeda and al Qaeda clones to their region and taken the military initiative to at least confront the ICU.  It will take such actions by many other governments to ultimately squelch the virus of al Qaeda’s jihad.

Fighting erupted on Thursday in Mogadishu between clan militias, only hours after Islamic Courts leaders said they have vacated Somalia’s longtime capital.

The fighting erupted in Mogadishu’s Yaaqshiid district after clan militias disagreed on the distribution of weapons surrendered by the Islamist militia…


There are fears Mogadishu could return to lawlessness after the power vacuum left by the Islamists’ sudden departure.[end]


Here is an important note of caution written by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross on the Counterterrorism Blog…
Pajamas Media: Why Ethiopia is Winning in Somalia (these are Daveed’s words):

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Unwrapping Somalia and the Islamic Courts

Posted by StormWarning on 26 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, International Issues, National Security, Opinions

The fact is that the Isalmic Court Union (ICU), promoting fundamental Islamic restrictions, had established a beach head in Somalia (check out the CIA factbook entry) had largely gone unnoticed (the area controlled by the ICU is centered in Mogadishu).  Now, certainly because of the real time intervention of Ethiopia into the violence in Somalia, the imposing of its Islamic ways Somalia by the ICU has reached the surface…and its attempt to unsettle the transitional federal government of Somalia.  But it hasn’t been ignored by the press as was implied by Bashir Goth, writing at the Washington PostGlobal, Somalia Islamists Should Be Stopped.

Today we live in a global world where ideas travel faster than lightening and people and weapons cross borders with utmost ease; where human rights are universal; and where political upheavals in one country reverberate in far off countries. No country stands alone.

This is why the world cannot and should not ignore what the Islamist movement in Somalia does and says. Remember what happened when the world ignored Afghanistan under Taliban. When the world stood aside and watched as they destroyed the historical relics of the Buddha; when they trampled on human rights and herded women into dark rooms. We all have seen the enormous cost of such negligence. Sept. 11 was only the start.

This is why the Somali Islamists’ calling for Jihad against Ethiopia and the United States cannot be ignored. Ethiopia is the only country that has correctly seen the danger coming from the rise of Islamism in Somalia. Some may explain Ethiopia’s position as muscle flexing aimed at controlling its small neighbor’s ports, the only strategic resources that Somalia owns; but Ethiopia’s fear of the Islamist movement in Somalia has a historical precedent…[more]

But saying, as Goth does that the ICU should be stopped is alot easier said than done, is it not?

Last week, Al Qaeda co-founder Ayman al-Zawahiri called Somalia "the southern garrison of Islam."

  • The emerging battleground - a large swath of territory known as the Horn of Africa - has several factions baring their teeth

  • Ethiopia - a U.S. ally, whose Christian army gets U.S. military training.

  • Mujahedeen of Eritrea - Al Qaeda-linked guerrillas who attack Ethiopian troops.

  • U.S. troops in Djibouti and Ethiopia. A source said there also is a U.S. commando base at Manda Bay, Kenya - a short boat or chopper ride from Mogadishu.

  • The Somali transitional government - a UN-sponsored group that holds little territory outside the town of Baidoa.

The African Union has tacitly backed the intervention by Ethiopia of its neighbor, Somalia, and has conceded that the AU "did not act in time."

In the meantime, Ethiopia, now with the blessing of the African Union and the covert support of the United States, is fighting the war in Somalia that others shied away from…

Also: …"Ethiopia has the right to intervene militarily in Somalia, an African Union official said. According to news agencies, AU spokesman Patrick Mazimhaka said the union failed to react adequately to the situation in Somalia…"

Of course this is in direct contradiction to the position of the Arab League that has called on Ethiopia to remove its troops from Somalia immediately and prevent violence from escalating further.

Arab League envoy to Somalia, Samir Husni, told Al-Jazeera that Addis Ababa should stop interfering in Ethiopia and withdraw its troops, Somalinet reported.
Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi declared war on Islamists in Somalia on Sunday. His troops are already on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
The Arab League is concerned that the recent flare-up will hamper efforts at dialogue between Islamists and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) scheduled to take place in the Sudanese capital Khartoum next month…

Meanwhile, the Arab League is reportedly going to meet in emergency session this week (Wednesday?) to discuss possible Arab moves to "end the war."

Ethiopia has seen the threat posed by the ICU establishing a beachhead for Islamic fundamentalism in Somalia.  Already men and women in Somalia have felt the ire of the jihad, with many restrictions being imposed on what was considered a "normal life" (drought followed by floods…disease and hunger).

The implications of the ICU establishing itself in Mogadishu, was not however ignored.  How important is the conflict in Somalia?  How does it impact the rest of the region.  I suspect that a part of the answer lies in part in the U.S. military plans to establish a new African Command ("After months of speculation, the Pentagon appears poised to establish a combatant command for all of Africa, in answer to rising concerns about the continent’s humanitarian, economic and political challenges as well as increased awareness of terrorism networks operating there. Talk about the idea has gone on for years but intensified in recent months, and it now looks like a done deal…")

Of course, there are arguments that an Africa Command is unnecessary, and would further deplete our resources, even while acknowledging the strategic focus of the region.  Without delving any deeper into the strategic elements here, it would seem logical if al Qaeda is hoping to see Somalia become the new center of activity to its jihad against all that is not Islamic, and certainly, all that is Western, then proximity to the expected battlefront would be wise (notwithstanding the questions of resources and manpower deployment).

The possible formation of the Africa Command is not and should not be a surprise.  A paper written by Greg Mills, national director of the South African Institute of International Affairs, published in the Autumn 2004 edition of The Washington Quarterly titled "Africa’s New Strategic Significance" made it clear that failed states, as many countries in Africa are, provide a germinating soil in which jihad can grow and flourish.

"…Long recognized by the international community as the single most-impoverished continent and for its weak governmental institutions, Africa’s clear potential to become a breeding ground for new terrorist threats thus landed it a new place on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Kohler, the director of plans and policy at the U.S. European Command, which has responsibility for Africa, added, “What we don’t want to see in Africa is another Afghanistan, a cancer growing in the middle of nowhere…” [Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Military Wants to Increase Its Presence in Africa,” Sydney Morning Herald, July 7, 2003].  FWIW, I found this relatively short paper (14 pages including reference pages) to be quite interesting on this subject.

Finally, here are excerpts from the Stratfor article, Open Warfare in Somalia, posted on December 26th…[please note that once again, the link is for the Google link to the article that should remain available].
The tensions in Somalia between the forces of the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) and the interim government and its Ethiopian backers broke into open warfare as Ethiopian forces launched airstrikes against SICC positions in several locations on Sunday and Monday and began moving ground forces. The attacks came a month after Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi called Somalia’s Islamists a clear and present danger during an address to parliament…

…The outbreak of fighting was far from unexpected…in October, both sides began preparing for a showdown after it became clear there was no room for a negotiated settlement between the SICC and the interim government — not as long as Ethiopia determined the SICC was a threat to its own security…

…But the initial push is not necessarily a reflection of the conflict to come. The SICC has not gained territory as much by fighting as by making arrangements with local warlords and village leaders, and by capitalizing on popular dissatisfaction with other warlords and the general lack of security and stability. The SICC forces are not structured for conventional military-to-military warfare; they lack heavy equipment, organization and training…

…What is shaping up is a battle in which the Ethiopians push the buffer back farther from their border, and carry out long-range strikes on Mogadishu in an effort to stem the flow of foreign weapons and fighters to the SICC as well as return the country’s areas of control to their pre-June position. On the SICC side, there is now an open call for foreign fighters, both from Ethiopian rival Eritrea and from foreign jihadist fighters, something the SICC has flirted with, but will now seek without concern for international considerations…

This has the potential to create a shift in the dynamic of the international Islamist militancy. While Iraq has been the focal point of international recruiting and volunteering for Islamists seeking a place to fight for their cause, Somalia is shaping up as a new center for international fighters[bolding mine]

[further implications]: The conflict in Somalia is serving as a proxy war for Ethiopia and Eritrea…direct fighting between Addis Ababa and Asmara could break out…this raises security concerns for U.S. operations in the Horn of Africa, which are based out of Djibouti, squeezed between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia.

Other discussions:
Doug Farah on the Counterterrorism Blog (and Doug Farah’s blog) cautions that Somalia, while seemingly of little importance and with limited resources is not perceived as "important" by the U.S., but that neither was Afghanistan prior to September 11th: The Somali War Spills Over - …The spread of this war is by design, not accident. In his statement earlier this week (as translated by Laura Mansfield) al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri went out of his way to signal support for the Islamist movement in Somalia, saying "Brothers in Islam and _jihad_ in Somalia, know that you are the southern garrison of Islam, so don’t allow Islam to be attacked from your flank and know that we are with you and the entire Muslim Umah is with you." The conflict is designed not only to establish a space that can be defined as the beginning of the Islamist Caliphate, a necessary physical space from which to launch succeeding holy wars against the unbelievers. It is also aimed at creating widespread instability in a fragile region in East Africa, rich in mineral resources with weak and corrupt central governments…

Also on Counterterrorism Blog, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross writes, Somalia: Battle for Baidoa Begins, Islamic Courts Employing Feint Tactics that the ICU is expanding its terror (my word) and is now attempting to overtake the city of Baidoa where the Transitional Federal Government has taken refuge.  In his post at Pajamas Media, Ross raises the spectre of another Afghanistan, Afghanistan Again: Somalia Falling to Al Qaeda…this should make everyone take heed.

At this moment (Tuesday), it is being reported that more than 3,000 have been wounded and 1,000 have died during this outbreak since the Ethiopian invasion…but it is also being reported that the Islamist fighters are retreating…but not surrendering by any means.

I once knew a blogger (???) who wrote that terrorism was spreading like a virus: Global Terrorism - A Pandemic and Global Terrorism - A Virus

And so it continues.  The combination of failed states and poor economic conditions, and a dose of benign neglect by the World, leaves countries vulnerable.  This alone is not a surprise either.

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Spy-Games: Scaramella Arrested

Posted by StormWarning on 24 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions

Earlier, Mario Scaramella, the Italian who met with Alexander Litvinenko the say he succumbed to the Polonium 210 poisoning, was arrested (officials said it was for "violating secrets of his office and possible arms trafficking").  Scaramella is the first person connected to the poisoning case to be arrested. However, the charges were not believed to be directly related to that case.

Rome prosecutors have been investigating Scaramella for violating secrets and possible arms trafficking. Scaramella met with Alexander Litvinenko at a London sushi bar on Nov. 1, the day the former KGB agent fell ill.

Scaramella said he showed Litvinenko e-mails from a confidential source identifying the possible killers of Russian investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya and listing other potential targets for assassination — including himself and Litvinenko.

While the Kremlin insists that any hint of their involvement is sheer nonsense, I have concluded that this entire affair is sheer nonsense, except for the remote possibility that Po-210 could be somehow used in a "dirty bomb."  I hope that someday the world will be able to unravel the apparent mystery of Alexander Litvinenko’s murder by poison.

Here is a link to previous posts in which Scaramella was mentioned.

Perhaps this Christmas Eve it is time to leave the sleuthing to the "authorities" and to return to the mundane world of counterterrorism and the ways in which it affects our homeland security.  I hope that some of the readers who found their way to this little corner of the blogsphere will continue to read and visit.  I must admit to being amused by the frequent visits from "certain federal agencies" during the high points of the Litvinenko affair, as though "they" didn’t have better information on the subject than anyone whose sources of information were from published sources.  Or is it that this entire affair is internal Russian politics that brought it to be such a "big deal?"

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New York City Underground Tunnels Vulnerable to Attack

Posted by StormWarning on 24 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, Domestic Terrorism, National Security, Opinions, Technology

So, a new report has surfaced (actually a draft analysis of the New York City PATH tunnels under the Hudson River - for everyone not familiar, that stands for Port Authority Trans-Hudson) saying that these tunnels are vulnerable to a terrorist attack.

That is a surprise?

The PATH tunnels go underneath the Hudson River through aged cast iron tubes that rest on the river bottom.

PATH Tunnels Seen as Fragile in Bomb Attack
…An analysis done for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
says that the PATH train tunnels under the Hudson River are more vulnerable to a bomb attack than previously thought, and that a relatively small amount of high explosives could cause significant flooding of the rail system within hours.

The analysis, based on work by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, revises some critical aspects of an assessment of the system’s vulnerability that was presented to the agency last spring. It makes clear that the tunnels — four tubes of varying design and sturdiness that stretch across the Hudson riverbed — are structurally more fragile than first thought…

…The worst case included in the analysis suggests that a bomb that could be easily carried aboard a train could punch a 50-square-foot hole in one side of a tube, possibly breaching both sides of the tunnel. Under that situation, 1.2 million gallons of water a minute could pour into the tunnel, flooding parts of the system in a matter of hours…[more]

Report says NYC tunnels vulnerable to terrorists
The forecast is ominous: A small explosive sneaked onto a commuter train punches a 50-square-foot hole in a tunnel under the Hudson River. More than a million gallons of water a minute surges in. Flooding engulfs parts of the system within hours.

That worst-case scenario was included in a draft analysis of the PATH rail system linking New Jersey and Manhattan, obtained by The New York Times and reported in Friday’s editions. The analysis suggests the system’s tunnels, which serve 230,000 riders each weekday, are more vulnerable to terrorist attack than originally thought, and raised questions about whether officials have taken enough precautions.

"It’s a cause for concern," Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly said Friday, adding that he was waiting to see a copy.

Gov. George Pataki said he had received the analysis and called it part of an ongoing effort to look at security on regional transit systems…[more]

I guess I don’t understand the surprise.  It would seem that any tunnel would be vulnerable to attack and catastophic collapse.  It would also seem to an "untrained eye" that any of the subway tunnels represent a serious vulnerability for a chemical or a biological attack…releasing a aerosolized cocktail in the subway system with the material(s) being quickly carried through the carvernous tubes by the airflow created by a passing train.  The same holds for the catastrophic losses if a suicide bomber were to explode him/herself inside of a major transit hub like New York’s Pennsylvania Station or Washington DC’s Union Station.

This alone is not a surprise.  I guess the real surprise is why more hasn’t already been done to deal with the threat.  It was only a few months ago that current Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff made it clear that transit security was being left to the cities and states.

Transit Security - New Funding…Enough?
Thoughts on the NYC Subway Threat

Indeed, the threats to the transit system are real.  How to address or lessen those threats is an entirely different question.  Afterall, you cannot search every one of the millions of passengers who the systems daily, and they are built underground and often pass under rivers.

Merry Christmas to all who tolerate my writing style and often ranting on a range of subjects.

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Democracy and Religious Freedom

Posted by StormWarning on 22 Dec 2006 | Tagged as: Current Affairs, Opinions

I’ve sat by recently and listened and read some of the commentary relating to the election in Minnesota of Keith Ellison, a Democrat from Minneapolis who in college coverted to Islam.  The fear expressed over Ellison’s election in certain circles is tantamount to ignorance…it is ignorance!

Among many things, people who have read this blog know that I am adamant on many issues relating to homeland security and to counterterrorism, and that I am strongly positioned on immigration and border security for example.

I am perplexed, though, even in light of the attacks of September 11th, and in light of some of the many issues that have arisen about Muslims in this country and elsewhere, by the question of Ellison taking the oath of office using the Quran instead of the Bible.  If I were to run for a seat in the House of Representatives and were lucky enough to win (meaning the voters in my fictitious district were dumb enough to elect me), I would not wish to be sworn in with my hand on the New Testament…I would want a copy of the Old Testament.  I see little, if any difference with Ellison’s position.

We can carry our post-September 11th phobias just so far before they cross the border of ignorance, stupidity, bias, and just plain dumbass blatant bigotry.

Ellison: Lawmaker has ‘a lot to learn about Islam’

  • "I think the diversity of our country is a great strength," Ellison told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. "It’s a good thing that we have people from all faiths and all cultures to come here."
  • "We all support one Constitution, one Constitution that upholds our right to equal protection, one Constitution that guarantees us due process under the law, one Constitution which says there is no religious test for elective office in America," Ellison said.
  • Virginia’s senior senator, Republican John Warner, said in a statement Thursday that he respects the right of congressional members to freely "exercise the religion of their choice, including those of the Islamic faith utilizing the Quran."

In my opinion, this guy Virgil Goode has an awful lot to learn about alot of subjects, not just the Quran, but of life…and he should be reminded about racial and religious