StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Once again, there is a spreading (and almost hopeful) rumor that an attack on Iran is impending. The source? Primarily the Dutch newspaper, De Telegraaf. More “stuff” is here. Who knew that the Dutch had spies.

Let’s deal with a few “pointers.”

1) As noted “elsewhere” by one of our readers, AC McCloud, “It would be stupid for Bush to authorize an attack before the election with the Dems tying McCain to his belt loop at every chance.” Note however that the NRO article (below) does argue that an attack while under the new President (regardless of who it is) would be unlikely and that, therefore, an attack with GWB still in office to “clean-up” business could occur (I still don’t think so - but I could be wrong).

2) Despite the “cheering and rooting section” who somehow believe that an attack against Iran would be a good thing (I also read that a pre-emptive strike against Iran would leave Iran powerless to retaliate), it should be remembered that extreme heat will turn desert sand into glass (actually this hapens at approximately 3,600°F which is 1,982°C).

3) I submit that the linkage of the newly emboldened Russian bear with Iran makes a pre-emptive strike against Iran a “poor choice.”

4) About 3 weeks ago, Haaretz (הארץ) published an article detailing how the US had rejected an Israeli plan to attack Iran and denied Israel war materiale for the attack.

5) The regional and Global implications of such an attack are, in my opinion, beyond comprehension.

A little less than a year and a half ago, this was discussed here, Sneak Attack Against Iran This Friday! and yet, it is still “predicted.”

What’s the truth? I suspect that James Robbins of National Review (Another Rumor of War) is pretty close to objective when he writes:

Is an attack along the lines of that reported by De Telegraaf feasible? Critics say our forces are stretched thin, but not the air and naval strike assets that would be used in this type of limited operation. The targets would be hard to hit, but not impossible to take out. The Iranian nuclear program would be delayed, not destroyed — but isn’t delay better than just letting them go ahead? Iran might seek to escalate the crisis in a number of ways — an Iranian general recently said World War Three would break out while being a bit unclear on who would be on what side — but there is no scenario in which the U.S. would not be able to maintain escalation dominance. Iran can do many things to hurt the United States, its allies, and its interests — in fact is already active in Iraq and elsewhere. But Iran will have to calculate whether a demonstration of their unconventional power will be worth the risk of a full scale demonstration of U.S. conventional force. In this vein, witness Syria’s response to Israel’s raid on their nuclear facility last September. We’re still waiting for it.

I have no idea whether any of these reports of imminent action are true. But as the various clocks keep ticking, the strategic logic of active counter-proliferation against Iran becomes more compelling. The U.S. may act, Israel may act, or not. We will know soon enough, one way or the other.

What do I really think? Armageddon is still a way off, regardless of what some of the cyber-sabre rattlers think.

Armageddon, attack Iran, De Telegraaf, Haaretz Sphere: Related Content

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Not only should we have seen it coming, but its all about the oil.  OK, sure, Putin wants to flex the Russian bear’s muscles, but its oil, its economics, and its another instance of shortsightedness in World affairs.

First, the missed signals and the opportunity to have acted sooner (rather than the later…in this case, the “cow/bear is out of the barn”). Anne Applebaum from the Washington Post once again and very pointedly describes the core issue in A Threat Explodes In Georgia.

Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular “frozen” conflict has escalated right now.

Most importantly (read the whole article please) is this:

In any case, the time to deal with this conflict is not now but was two, or even four, years ago. For a very long time it has been clear that there was a security vacuum in the Caucasus; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not emerge well from a confrontation; and that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas and, above all, the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement. And now it may be too late.

This is the very same Anne Applebaum whom I quoted in a previous post on June 9, 2007:

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

Now, about the motivations and “its the oil stupid!” As I observed the other day in Uncle Vlad, etc.:

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa. But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union. I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

In an event likely to be related to the Russian invasion of Ossetia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was struck by PKK (Kurdish Workers Party):

The BTC pipeline was hit by an explosion on Turkish territory on Aug. 5, two days before the conflict began over the South Ossetia region and the oil flow had halted. Turkish officials and the operator company, BP, had said the line was not affected by the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

AND (IMPORTANTLY)

An adviser to the Russian parliament also claimed the closed pipeline would not be opened again and declared the line is “dead”.

“The world and countries in the region have seen that not NATO, but Russia is the only one who could secure the energy routes,” Alexander Dugin, international politics advisor to the Russia’s Duma, told Turkish Cumhuriyet daily.

“In this context, regarding Turkey’s energy politics, it should be said that the BTC is not running at the moment and it will not run again.”

Have you any doubts? Consider this. I don’t work for the gov’t or any analyst group (although I do write “real” articles elsewhere). Why is it so clear (and has been for quite some time) to me that Russia through Putin’s aspirations was about to re-assert itself, when the Administration, even as recently as this week, can say that the times of the Cold War are over? Don’t believe this? Here:

“The cold war is over,” President Bush declared Friday, but a new era of enmity between the United States and Russia has emerged nevertheless. It may not be as tense as the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, for now, but it could become as strained.

Russia’s military offensive into Georgia has shattered, perhaps irrevocably, the strategy of three successive presidential administrations to coax Russia into alliance with the West and integration into its institutions.

Cold War over? Think again! But, President Bush at his Crawford Ranch and elsewhere has said of Putin, “I call him Vladimir.”

Its so plain and simple…as written in the NY Post article, Raping Georgia:

The Kremlin is determined to break Georgia’s will - and keep the feisty republic out of NATO.

Russia, you see, still believes it’s entitled to all of its former empire. And, tragically, “Old Europe” is back: Yesterday, Germany and other nervous European states bought the Russian line that Georgia is the aggressor. Wouldn’t want to anger Moscow…

While we see Russian tanks and aggression, it is, ultimately, about oil and economics, and about Uncle Vladimir re-asserting the power and influence of the once (and future) “mighty Russian bear” as a pseudo-Super Power. Other material available in Right Truth’s discussion of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, here.

Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan oil pipeline, U.S. State Dept. Sphere: Related Content

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Reality to many is that the World has returned to great instability, although there some among “us” who have known all along that GWOT was intertwined with Global Politics. The question I have is why “we” (our government) are suprised by any of this!

So, what have we got? Long past, I wrote about Uncle Vlad’s desire to re-establish some semblance of the old Soviet Union. Certainly not with the trappings of Soviet Communism. It doesn’t matter, well maybe it does. A Russian form of capitalism, or the oligarchic structure could offer more complex issues for an insensitive U.S. government. What was it, just a few months ago when “all seeing and all knowing” Condoleeza Rice said, “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” That was February 21, 2007 for whoever is watching and listening. WTF?

And back on January 1, 2008 I wrote:

At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation. Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now. Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility. Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

My Xmas Eve statement was this, Iranian Reactor to Open in 2008:

I believe that we (the Bush Administration) continue to underestimate the renewed power and intentions of Vladimir Putin. Yet, according to one publication, The BulletinOnline, this helps the cause of non-proliferation. The thinking here is that if Russia supplies the HEU to Iran and removes the material, then Iran will not continue its own development, and the uses of the fuel will be more controlled. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir and Ahmadinejad.

- AND -

One must ask the serious question is we are watching as this is happening, and what we are planning to do. These deals are being couched as economic and trade…not offensive. Clearly, the Russian bear is revived, and the situation bears watching in 2008 as one of the critical International and National security issues. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir.

In October 2007, I wrote, Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing

Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet. There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.” The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t.

[SKIP]

Putin is not bluffing.  He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat?  I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”).  I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)

FOLLOW THESE POSTS TO SEE:
Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…

DEAR READERS, I am but an observer and interpreter, I am not an analyst in the true sense of the word. But someone needs to be asking the very obvious WTF questions of those who are!

We are seeing a re-emergence of the old Soviet model. Instead of communsim, we have their form of capitalism, along with Putin’s interpretation of old KGB tactics. Implications?

- Russian influence on peaceful settlement of any Mideast conflict
- geopolitical control or influence by U.S. vewrsus Russia in Central Asia is in play
- will NATO continue its role in Afghanistan (withdrawal could further destabilize region)
- what role will Russia have in that region?
- a reinstatement of a cold war like mentality between middle Europe (land locked) versus ocean states

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa.  But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union.  I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

And what of “cousin Pervez?” He is likely to be impeached or otherwise removed from his position as President. This instability shouldn’t be tolerable, but somehow…

Ahmadinejad, Musharraf, Putin Sphere: Related Content

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I have reached a point of great concern.  Those of you who have read here long enough already know of my dimly lit outlook for “democracy” in Afghanistan and Pakistan - those two “countries” separated by the arbitrariness of the Durand Line and linked by the tribalism that now threatens the rend both from the center.  Add to that mess, the emerging conflict spawned by a re-emerging Russian bear to stop Kosovan independence along with the “unrest” in Africa, and what you have is a World full of tension, conflict and nationalistic chauvinsism…and if to that, you add the Islamic fundamentalist jihad that continues to spread unrelented like a global pandemic, and you get a boiling cauldron of a witches brew of violence that has to worry even the most naïve observers. 

Yet, it is that naïveté that leads somehow more sophisticated people to believe that one political candidate or the other will be better or worse for our nation as we enter the second decade of the 21st Century (among those naïve souls are the candidates themselves).  But is also that naïveté that permits those casual observers of World events who deem themselves “experts” because of the “bully pulpit” they’ve created in the blogosphere to believe that the World is stabilizing because the “surge in Iraq worked” (or didn’t), that creates perhaps our greatest issue.  The “PEOPLE” see the World stabilizing as if through some self-fulfilling prophecy, that they write that “all is well” on one front or the other, that in fact, it is well.  Well, dear readers, I believe that it is not “all well.”

In Afghanistan, a suicide bombing has killed atleast 80 in Kandahar at a dog fighting festival (too bad Michael Vick is serving time in prison).

The governor of Kandahar, Asadullah Khaled, said the dead numbered 80 and the wounded over 90. A spokesman for the ministry of health in Kabul, Dr. Abdullah Fahim, said the Kandahar hospital had received 67 bodies. The death toll exceeded 67 because some families had taken bodies straight home for burial from the scene of the blast, he said.

“This is the action of the enemies of our country,” said Mr. Khaled, the governor. “They do not let Afghans enjoy their lives and have a peaceful life.”

A spokesman for the Taliban, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi, denied that the Taliban had carried out the attack and suggested it was the result of internal fighting within the Afghan government. “We did not carry out this blast in Kandahar, we strongly reject that,” he said in a telephone call.

Indeed, I maintain that Hamid Karzai continues to rule and live at the pleasure of the warlords (and their friends, the resurrected Taliban). Those who fail to recognize that tribalism, and not democracy or federalism, rule, are naïve.

In Pakistan, where just 6 weeks ago a returning Benazir Bhutto knew that she would be assassinated, was of course, assassinated.  And now, as the supposedly democratic elections there have been not one, but two separate bombings that have killed a total of oalmost 60 people (or it the body count higher?).  Northwest Pakistan, stronghold of the tribes including the Pashtun, continues to be the area in which violence is spawned and fomented.  Even the Bajaur tribal district where one supposedly “knowing” blogger has a source named Mohammed who continues to spin the violence as a temporary sidetrack. That level of naïveté is dangerous in a World where diplomacy is far from effective. We continue to underestimate the impact of tribalism on the stability or instability of regions like this.

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in December highlighted the extent of Pakistan’s instability, and violence has continued unabated since. Extremists have threatened candidates from all parties. Fazal Rahman Kakakhel, the Vice President of the Awami National Party, a secular group representing Pakistan’s Pashtun ethnic group, was assassinated in Karachi on February 7th. Two days later a suicide bombing in the North-West Frontier Province killed over twenty-five at an ANP rally. Even conservative Islamic parties who are not believed to be sufficiently radical have been threatened; Maulana Fazlur Rahman, head of the Jamiat-e-Ulema-i-Islami party, “has been reduced to campaigning via phone and CD after warnings of a suicide attack.”

It was on February 9th, I believe that a suicide bombing rocked the Northwest section of Pakistan and killed atleast 25 people:

A powerful bomb killed at least 25 people at an opposition party rally in Pakistan’s turbulent northwest Saturday, according to government officials.

The explosion in the city of Charsadda ripped through a crowd of supporters of the secular Awami National Party moments before the party’s provincial president arrived, witnesses said. The source of the blast was unclear, but government officials blamed a suicide bomber.

With national elections only nine days away, the bombing raised concerns the government would postpone the vote in troubled North-West Frontier Province, near the Afghan border. The region has been the site of repeated clashes between Taliban fighters and the Pakistani military, as well as suicide bombings.

But Pakistani government officials moved swiftly to allay fears they might delay the vote, which had already been postponed after the Dec. 27 assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

There are those who believe that the “election” will not solve the problems of Pakistan.  I am among those who hold that belief.  The Northwest tribal region is boiling over - Secular-Islamist Clash in NW Pakistan.

A showdown is shaping up in Pakistan’s turbulent northwest between secular-minded ethnic Pashtuns and those who support Taliban-style Islamists — a conflict that is likely to sharpen regardless of which side wins Monday’s elections.

Politicians and analysts fear the vote for a provincial assembly, which is being elected at the same time as the national parliament, will produce a coalition powerless to curb the frontier region’s slide toward domination by Islamic militants.

Five years ago, hard-line religious zealots swept to power in North West Frontier Province’s regional government. They capitalized on Pashtun anger over the U.S. invasion that toppled the Pashtun-dominated Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan as well as President Pervez Musharraf’s move to sideline mainstream political parties opposed to his military rule.

And yet, still, the election plans continued…to the point where just this weekend, another suicide bombing has ripped this pre-election.  The death toll in the latest bombing is approaching 50 as the election draws near.

Pakistan vowed Sunday to hold parliamentary elections despite a suicide attack on a campaign rally that killed up to 46 people, rattling voters already wary of the militant violence that has overshadowed the Islamic nation’s next step toward democracy.

Its time to lay aside all of the happy talk!  Any implication of voting irregularities in the Pakistani election will lead to an explosion of violence. 

And finally, there is Kosovo where a declaration of independence is looming, along with the fear and dread of the reaction that it will bring.

The move is expected to be quickly followed by formal recognition by the United States and many, but not all, of the European Union’s member states. Some E.U. countries, including Spain, fear that Kosovo’s independence will embolden separatists elsewhere on the continent.

Kosovo’s Serb minority, which makes up about 10 percent of the province’s population of 2 million, has resisted the independence move, and Russia and its ally Serbia, which regards Kosovo as an integral and historically precious part of its territory, are expected to swiftly condemn Thaci’s declaration.

“We are all expecting something difficult and horrible,” Bishop Artemije, the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, said Saturday in Mitrovica, a city in northern Kosovo. “Our message to you, all Serbs in Kosovo, is to remain in your homes and around your monasteries, regardless of what God allows or our enemies do.”

Now that Kosovo has made it official and has declared its independence from Serbia and pledged to pledged to make it a “democratic, multiethnic state,” watching the response of the Serbs and the Russians will be important.  I can only hope that the State Department (among others) is watching as these World events unfold. Indeed, the World is about to boil over, in my opinion.

Karzai, KLA, Kosovo, Kosovo Liberation Army, Pakistani elections, Pashtun, State Department, Taliban Sphere: Related Content

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In his last press conference before yielding the Russian Presidency to his handpicked successor, Dmitri A. Medvedev, and taking over as Russian Premier, Putin blasted the West.  As many people watch the American Presidential race, the fact is that Putin’s actions now will influence the next Administration.  The Cold War is back.

In a confident and forceful public performance in which he described many of Russia’s continuing policy choices, Mr. Putin spoke bitingly of his international critics and defied Washington by refusing to back down from threats to aim strategic missiles at the Czech Republic, Poland and Ukraine.

Doubt it?  This nuclear threat should not be taken lightly, and it is tied to the possible breakaway of Kosovo from Serbia.  Although it is an unspecified retaliation, it is a threat nonetheless.

In a vintage performance, the former KGB spy laced almost five hours of invective with crude insults, threats and admonitions often expressed in the argot of the Russian street.

Reserving his greatest ire for the United States, which he accused of harbouring a colonial mentality towards Russia, Mr Putin again said that Europe would pay the consequences for a Washington-backed plan to erect a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

“Our generals, our security council, consider these moves a threat to our national security,” he said. “We asked our partners to stop but no one listened to us. So if they continue we will have to react appropriately by retargeting our missiles.” Mr Putin also made similar threats against Ukraine if it joined Nato.

Vladimir Putin is emerging as the next dictator of Russia. Watch as the story begins to unfold and remember that you read it here.

Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED), with other related posts linked within this one (two from a year ago).

Kosovo.  Putin argues that any breakaway from Serbia will be illegal, that the U.S. and Europe supporting the Kosovo breakaway as illegal and immoral.

There has been speculation that Moscow could retaliate by recognising the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the separatist Moldovan enclave of Trans-Dniester.

Watch these developments carefully ladies and gentlemen.

Abkhazia, Kosovo, Moldovan, Serbua, South Ossetia Sphere: Related Content

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UPDATE: well, for now at least, this seems to have been a sudden, but natural death. 

Well, another mysterious murder (?) has happened, this time in Georgia (former Soviet Socialist Republic).  Charismatic oligarch, Badri Patarkatsishvili, Georgia’s richest man, collasped and died in front of his family in Leatherhead, Surrey.  While characterizing his death as “mysterious” (actually, “suspicious“), no radioactive materials were found in the preliminary investigation.

Patarkatsishvili had been living in fear in recent months, protected by 120 bodyguards, after receiving reports that the Georgian government had called in a hitman to assassinate him.

One plot bore chilling similarities to the polonium poisoning of Litvinenko, a former KGB agent, in a London hotel in Nov 2006.

Patarkatsishvili’s sudden death, aged 52, surprised friends. Dr Zaur Kirkitadze, his personal doctor, said: “He never suffered from any serious sickness.”

He feared for his life and would not return to his home in Georgia and was reportedly worth around £6 billion.

● Patarkatsishvili faced allegations of planning a coup and investigations into his business interests…
● Patarkatsishvili had fallen out with Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president…
● Patarkatsishvili was a close friend of Boris Berezovsky, who employed Litvinenko…

Mr Berezovsky said: “The death of Badri Patarkatsishvili is a terrible tragedy. I have lost my closest friend. This is a huge loss for all of his family and friends.

Badri Patarkatsishvili, KGB, Litvinenko Sphere: Related Content

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There have been a series of simplistic “looks” at what is happening in Iran, or what actually happened in Syria a few weeks ago.  The actual dynamics are a quite bit more complex than what meets the eye.  First it was the “impending” attack on Iran (hasn’t happened yet - and if my expectation is correct, it won’t - at least in the short-term - because here, diplomacy should be the immediate term step) and then it was the “rumored” that U.S. instead of Israeli attach on the Syrian nuclear facility (some people actually believed and reported this).  What is certain is that until now, the mystery surrounding the ever changing Syrian description of the target attacked opened it all to speculation about what actually happened.  State Dept. sources revealed that the Syrian facility was further from completion than the Iraqi nuke plant detroyed by the Israelis in 1981.  What is the truth?

David Albright, president and founder of the respectable Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) and an expert on nuclear issues, agrees. “A very real question is whether Syria is technically and financially able to build such a reactor. It would be hard to justify an air strike on a facility so early on in construction and, if supplied by North Korea, unlikely ever to be finished,” he said.

It is not very likely that what the Israeli planes destroyed last month was a nuclear reactor in its early stages. It appears that sources in the State Department, worried about pressures building in the White House for a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, want to raise questions, legitimate in and of themselves, about the accuracy of U.S. and Israeli intelligence, and about a jumping-the-gun attitude in the Bush White House. What better way to do it then describe the Syrian target as a suspected “nuclear reactor,” then proceed to question whether a reactor was being built at the facility at all, then move on to say that even if it were a reactor, then it was many years away from being completed and posing a real threat. Now, raise questions about the accuracy of intelligence about the nature of a nuclear target, change the word “Syria” for “Iran,” and change the word “reactor” for “nuclear weapons capability,” and you have a valid argument against rushing to a military strike on Iran any time soon.

So what’s really happening? Guaranteed that you won’t read this everywhere.  Olivier Giutta’s post on the Counterterrorism Blog (one of the limited number of true expert websites on counterterrorism), Iran’s secret Syrian plan leads to unsettling conclusions (especially for people who have already committed to other speculations).  From his article in the Middle East Times of the same title…

Israel has been providing intelligence and satellite images to the U.S. about a secret Syrian nuclear program for several months, according to media reports. Discussions between Israel and the United States took place last summer regarding a possible strike. But when Israel found the matter so pressing that when they realized the U.S. was not ready to act, on September 6 they attacked a Syrian nuclear site. Hence the question: what is Syria really up to or more to the point what is Iran up to?

…First, let’s start with an underreported explosion that occurred in a Syrian military base outside Aleppo on July 26…[instead of the Syrian explanation of an explosion at a Scud facility arming a missile with mustard-gas warhead]…alternate explanation…Kuwait’s Al Seyassah newspaper recently reported that a Shiite Lebanese religious cleric claimed the Iranians were allegedly supervising a chemical weapons manufacturing program and that tens of Iranian experts and engineers died as a result of that explosion.

Mmmm…so what actually happened on Sept. 6th? - “…Israel did not just bomb a nuclear site in the early stages. Indeed, the silence of the international community and especially the Arab world after the attack is a first, and it shows the gravity of what happened. Even though Syria and its Iranian sponsor are detested, and in the case of Iran feared, in the Muslim world, the fact that there was no condemnation of Israel at the U.N. could be interpreted as a tacit relief that Israel acted…”

An interesting aside here is the astounding number of people who somehow speculated that the attack had been done by the United States.  Well, now that we’ve dispensed with that misconception…

Iran’s handwriting is all over the wall from the chemical to the nuclear arms program in Syria…Syria might actually be “Plan B” for Iran. By helping develop nuclear sites in Syria, strikes on Iran might turn out to be useless. This was a smart strategy until Israel bombed the Syrian nuclear site on September 6 and made the world notice.

Let’s move on to the next entry…Commentary - Olivier Guitta: Plan B: Syria’s forgotten — but dangerous — nuclear program

The Iraq Survey Group is calling for open negotiations with Syria, but new reports show that Damascus is up to no good. Indeed, while world attention is rightly focused on the nuclear capabilities of Iran and North Korea, Syria has been quietly — but quickly — advancing its own secret nuclear program…

●  in 2003 when the Russian Foreign Ministry inadvertently revealed that a Russian-Syrian agreement for the delivery of a nuclear power plant in an undisclosed Syrian location had been…

●  In 2004, Syrian President Bashar Assad made a point to say that Syria would not dispose of its WMD program until Israel did the same. “Since some of my country is occupied,” Assad added, “Syria can legitimately use all the necessary means to liberate its territories.”

●  helped by Pakistani nuclear network of A.Q. Khan pointed out that Syria may have procured centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to produce a bomb.

●  confirmed by declassified Congressional report in 2006…the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Syria also got help from Saddam Hussein’s regime.

●  according to Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al Seyassah…“Syria has an advanced nuclear program” in a secret site located in the province of Al Hassaka, close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders, supervised by “it is President Assad’s brother, Colonel Maher Assad and his cousin Rami Makhlouf” (British source)

●  This nuclear weapons program is based on material that Saddam Hussein’s two sons shipped to Syria before — and during — the U.S. war against Iraq. According to the Kuwaiti newspaper, this explains why international investigative teams found no proof of Hussein’s nuclear program.

Let us not forget that Russia has already said that it would aid Iran if it the U.S. attacked it.  But the clear conclusion reached by Guitta’s analysis is that Syria getting the n-bomb is just as good as Iran developing the capability because of the close, cooperative agreement that exists between the two countries.  This agreement led to a reported $3 billion transfer of funds from Syria to the Iran Central Bank at the end of 2006.

Also read: Analysis: Syria becomes the Annapolis prize.  There are previous posts on Storm Blog discussing related topics. “Let’s Attack Iran” and Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing and North Korea Launches Test Missile From Iran

In the meantime…sources are very important.

Another view of what’s going on relative to Iran can be read at the Right Truth, TIMELINE - IRAN.

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If it hasn’t already happened, it will.  There are unsubstantiated reports of shelling in Kurdish territory.  It does appear that this Turkish-Kurdish (PKK) border skirmish has the potential to explode to a broader regional conflict involving Iran, Syria and maybe even Russia.  Aside from the amaturish insistence by Speaker Pelosi on pushing the Armenian Resolution, now Iraqi President al-Talabani has chastised Syria’s Assad for supporting the planned Turkish incursion.

UPDATE: This morning’s reports confirm that Turkey has fired on Kurdish rebel encampments, the Iraq’s President Talibani, a Kurd, urged the Kurdish rebels to lay down their arms. (I doubt that will happen).

It seems that NewsMax (unreliable source at best) is reporting cross border shelling from both Iran and Turkey today.  Other than the NewsMax article that was repeating a FrontPage Magazine entry, I’ve seen no substanitation at this writing.  However, in the wider sense, and to a great degree this situation was inevitable…and not because of the Armenian Genocide Resolution.  It was inevitable because once again, country demarcations severed an ethnic group, in this case the Kurds.  Using Wiki as the source we find that the Kurdish people are split among four different countries, and with Kurdistan actually being parts of these countries - Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Armenia.  And with Turkey having the largest Kurdish population, it is the most sensitive when it comes to the possibility of an independent Kurdistan.:

The exact number of Kurdish people living in the Middle East is unknown, due to both an absence of recent census analysis and the reluctance of the various governments in Kurdish-inhabited regions to give accurate figures.

According to the CIA Factbook, Kurds comprise 20% of the population in Turkey, 15-20% in Iraq, perhaps 8% in Syria,[The CIA Factbook reports all non-Arabs make up 9.7% of the Syrian population, and does not break out the Kurdish figure separately. Since Syria contains a large Armenian population, 8% may be a reasonable percentage.] 7% in Iran and 1.3% in Armenia. In all of these countries except Iran, Kurds form the second largest ethnic group. Roughly 55% of the world’s Kurds live in Turkey, about 20% each in Iran and Iraq, and a bit over 5% in Syria. These estimates place the total number of Kurds at somewhere between 27 and 36 million.

See the breakdown of Kurdish populations here. And note that according to professor Carole A. O’Leary of the American University…the Kurds are the largest ethnic group in the world without a separate nation-state. Quite a fearsome possibility facing Turkey and others if the Iraqi “democracy” ends up, as I and others anticipate, as a weakened central government federation, since th enext logical step would be for a secession of Kurdistan from Iraq.

Here’s what Walid Phares of Counterterrorism Blog wrote earlier this afternoon,  Note on Turkey Kurdistan Trigger:

The Turkish army is mobilizing to move inside Iraqi Kurdistan, and Turkish experts say the invasion may go as deep as 60 KM inside Iraqi Kurdish lands. The objective is to uproot the fighters of the PKK, but the Turks may also find themselves clashing with the Peshmergas. Hence intense diplomatic efforts are needed to avoid this Turkish-Kurdish war inside Iraq. Washington — along with the Kurdish leadership in Iraq — must dismantle the PKK positions and networks, or at the very least declare an intention to do so. This is the only way to convince Ankara not to engage in such an operation.

However, there could be more to this problem than Turkey’s frustration with PKK cross-border activities. According to well-informed sources in the region, an intelligence campaign sponsored by the Iranian and Syrian regimes has so-far been successful in dragging Turkey into their present position. In fact, the PKK has been penetrated by the intelligence services since the 1990’s when they were based inside Syria and the Bekaa valley of Lebanon. Tehran and Damascus have perhaps manipulated their previous influences to trigger this brewing conflict.

We can all hope that the House of Representatives comes to their senses and does not vote on the Resolution as passed by the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

U.S. genocide resolution losing support - An Armenian genocide resolution has fallen into political limbo, with lawmakers continuing to abandon support but no final decision made about its future.

By Friday, the number of co-sponsors for the resolution had slipped to 211 from 226. The precipitous decline leaves supporters holding a bad hand as they decide what to do next.

”I think they did miscalculate,” said Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., a resolution opponent.

Two other things of note here.  To start with, a close look at Jonathan Gurwitz’ article in the SA Express News,  Timing is everything, and Pelosi’s got nothing seems to hit it sqarely on the head!

The last time House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did her best impersonation of a secretary of state, her amateur performance was merely reckless. This time it is dangerous. Pelosi’s April visit to Syria should have demonstrated a fundamental about diplomacy — words matter…[see continuation of the article]…

…Congress should go on record about the atrocities that claimed 1.5 million Armenian lives. Historical amnesia about the systematic slaughter of Armenians has encouraged many of the genocidal movements that followed. But after nine decades and with a war in Iraq, now is not the time to put U.S.-Turkish relations to a test.

Henry Kissinger, Alexander Haig, George Shultz, James Baker, Lawrence Eagleburger, Warren Christopher, Madeleine Albright and Colin Powell sent Pelosi a letter last month warning her the resolution would endanger U.S. national security interests. A real secretary of state would already know that.

Aside from this very clear and unified sentiment, seventeen years ago a Senate Resolution condemning the Turkish atrocities (ok, ok A!#!&* - I’ve heard all of this revisionist crap about Turkey not “really” being Turkey when the Armenian thingy happened, but that’s pure bull), was turned down for the second time…and interesting that Senator Bob Dole, then the Minority Leader, was the sponsor of the bill.

Senate Again Blocks Armenian Resolution - The Senate voted today for the second time to block a resolution commemorating the mass death of Armenian civilians during World War I at the hands of the Ottoman Turks.

The Senate voted today for the second time to block a resolution commemorating the mass death of Armenian civilians during World War I at the hands of the Ottoman Turks.

The resolution, proposed by Senator Bob Dole, Republican of Kansas, the minority leader, has deeply offended the Turkish Government, which says its adoption would be an insult…

So, the first President Bush’s Administration was against the Turkish condemnation as well.  But let’s get back to the reality of today.  Syria and Iran and choosing sides here.  And apparently, Turkey has a history of being insulted and upset, especially when it comes to the Armenians.

Iraqi Kurds Protest Turkey Threat of Cross-Border Military Action -  Thousands of Kurds in the Iraqi border town of Zakho protested Saturday against Turkey’s threat of possible cross-border military action. Turkey has threatened to attack Kurdish rebel bases in Iraq, which it says are used to stage attacks inside Turkey.

Iraq Partition will blow Mideast up - Syrian President warns that any failure to safeguard Iraq’s territorial integrity will spark massive bloodshed in the Middle East region.  “Iraq’s disintegration will be a bomb that will blow up the Middle East.”

There is even one other unsubstanitated claim that Turkey, Syria and Russia would align to fight against Iran.  But make no mistake about it…we are seeing the emergence of the newest front in the Middle East conflict.  It is expanding, and now will include The Turkish Front.  This is about much more than the PKK…its about the possible partitioning of Iraq and the move toward independence of Kurdistan…and therefore it is about the oil fields of Kirkuk.  There!  I said it!  Its all about the oil!

Doubt that we’re headed toward a broadening conflict?  And in fact, if it happens, it will be over the possible partitioning of Iraq into the three constituent parts - Kurd, Sunni and Shi’a…as written in the Washington Times, Flawed Federalism:

…Perhaps the most compelling argument against Iraqi “federalism,” however, has to do with the health of the trans-Atlantic relationship. Today, politicians and analysts in Turkey are focused overwhelmingly on a number of interrelated security challenges: the long-running Kurdish insurgency in that country’s southeast, the activities of Kurdish separatists across the border in “Iraqi Kurdistan,” and the politically active Kurdish enclaves in both Syria and Iran. For Turkish leaders, the nightmare scenario is the emergence of an independent Kurdish state that straddles all of these fronts.

Iraqi “federalism,” if implemented, has the potential to make that nightmare a reality. A quasi-autonomous Kurdish state in Iraq’s north can be expected to draw support from the Kurdish populations in Iraq’s neighbors and fan secessionist flames among Turkey’s own ethnic Kurdish minority. The risks have not been lost on officials in Ankara, who have spoken out vocally against what they see as the “worst scenario for the people of Iraq and the whole region.”

The possibility should be worrisome to Western officials as well. Turkey is one of the NATO’s most important strategic players, and the alliance’s lone outpost in the greater Middle East. A Turkey struggling with growing Kurdish separatism will not be so quick to cooperate with those that it views as responsible for exacerbating its security problems. In a very real sense, therefore, the cost of the Biden plan could be the neutering of NATO, as the United States mortgages future alliance operations on its hopes for a new political order in Iraq.

Mr. Biden and his colleagues should certainly be commended for their creative thinking about how to bring stability to Iraq. But the onus is also on them to explain whether their plan will truly be worth the probable political and strategic costs…

Let’s leave this subject on the shelf for a but and come back and see how the next days unfold…let’s see if the reports of Turkish and Iranian shelling of Kurdish areas is true.  And by the way, I am not late to this party…see Turkey Fears Kurds, Not Armenians and Battle Ground in Northern Iraq (Turks vs Kurds) - The Next Conflict.  The subject of partitioning Iraq has also been discussed here.

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Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet.  There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.”  The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t. 

But first, lets observe that radical Muslims have announced that they are now in control of the Public Broadcasting Station in the Netherlands.  Its time to pay attention to the Islamification of middle Europe.  Its been coming for some time now, especially in places like the Netherlands and Denmark where demography has shown a dramatic increase in Muslim population.

Radical Muslims have taken control of the Dutch Muslim Broadcaster (NMO). At least three of the public broadcaster’s eight directors are extremely controversial, according to TV programme Nova.

Until recently, the Netherlands had two Islamic public broadcasters: the moderate NMO and the orthodox Dutch Islamic Broadcasting Organisation (NIO). Media watchdog Commissariaat voor de Media demanded that the two would merge so that the Islamic faith would have a single representative body in the public system. But according to Nova, this resulted in NIO staging a coup of NMO.

Note the European Muslim Populations by Country shown here.

So, let’s see.  How about Russia and Iran…Putin Warns Against Attacks on Iran

Vladimir Putin issued a veiled warning Tuesday against any attack on Iran as he began the first visit by a Kremlin leader to Tehran in six decades _ a mission reflecting Russian-Iranian efforts to curb U.S. influence.

He also suggested Moscow and Tehran should have a veto on Western plans for new pipelines to carry oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea, using routes that would bypass Russian soil and break the Kremlin’s monopoly on energy deliveries from the region.

Putin is not bluffing.  He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat?  I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”).  I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)

Check out previous posts:

Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…

Turkey-Iraq… Erdogan Plays Down Threat to Iraq

With tensions high along the Iraqi-Turkish border as the Turkish government seeks parliamentary approval for military raids into northern Iraq, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said today that the approval would not necessarily immediately be followed by military action.“I sincerely wish that this motion will never be applied,” Mr. Erdogan told his ruling AK Party in a speech, Reuters reported. “Passage of this motion does not mean an immediate incursion will follow, but we will act at the right time and under the right conditions.”He also called on Iraq and the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq to crack down on the Kurdish rebels, who launch attacks into Turkey from the Kurdish region of Iraq…

Clearly, there is still a chance of a diplomatic solution to this, but I have serious doubts.  I don’t think that Turkey is bluffing here.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressing the AK Party in Anakara today.   Adem Altan/AFP-Getty Images

My belief is that Turkey has been seriously concerned about the developments in Iraq, and in its own country, including the Kurds in Iraq and the PKK.  It has been clear that Turkey would not be happy if Kurdistan was given it independence…not a lot different if Iraq becomes a decentralized federal government.

Check out previous posts:

Turkey Fears Kurds, Not Armenians - …or the Americans for that matter.  Despite a major U.S.-based investment in a Turkish shipping company, reports are that Turkish shells fell on the Kurdish Autonomous Region in N. Iraq yesterday.  And still, Pelosi’s Democrats press on with the Armenian genocide bill.  It is clear to anyone (else) that Turkey fears the Kurds alot more than the Armenians or the Americans

Battle Ground in Northern Iraq (Turks vs Kurds) - The Next Conflict - The remanant shards of ethnic and religious distrust of the lost Ottoman Empire, complicated by Britain’s arbitrary nation-creating and a Congressional vote on Armenian genocide leads to an eventual outbreak between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq (Turkey is considering what they call an incursion after this weekend).  This spreading of instability can do nothing to help the region…

So that’s two “no bluffs.”  Next, China and Tibet…Dalai Lama’s US award not to affect Tibet’s stability

The planned award to the Dalai Lama by the US Congress will not affect Tibet’s stability, an official of southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region said Tuesday.

“It will only be an injection of cardiotonic to secessionist activities,” Qiangba Puncog, chairman of the regional government of Tibet, told reporters at the ongoing 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

The Dalai Lama is to receive the Congressional Gold Medal, a top US civilian award, on Wednesday at the US Capitol. The ceremony is said to be attended by US President George W. Bush.

“The award won’t have much influence on the stable development of Tibet,” said Qiangba Puncog, a delegate to the Party congress.

Also,  China Issues Warning on Dalai Lama Trip

Chinese officials warned the United States on Tuesday not to honor the Dalai Lama, saying a planned award ceremony in Washington for the Tibetan spiritual leader would have “an extremely serious impact” on relations between the countries.

Speaking at a Foreign Ministry briefing and on the sidelines of the Communist Party’s 17th National Congress, the officials condemned the Dalai Lama as a resolute separatist and said foreign leaders must stop encouraging his “splittist” mission.

“Such a person who basely splits his motherland and doesn’t even love his motherland has been welcomed by some countries and has even been receiving this or that award,” Tibet’s Communist Party boss, Zhang Qingli, told reporters during the congress.

“We are furious,” Mr. Zhang said. “If the Dalai Lama can receive such an award, there must be no justice or good people in the world.”

OK, this is a bluff all the way, and I especially like the part about “there must be no justice or good people in the world.”  China has obligatory power over Tibet…and since it invaded in 1951.  The Dalai Lama has been in exile in India since 1959.  Also see:  Q&A: The Dalai Lama, Tibet and China.  They met, but from what I understand, the meeting wasn’t even on President Bush’s official calendar.

There is alot more going on in the World this week.  I may add to this post later on when I have the time (if I remember).  One of the real questions, is whether I’m right or puffing smoke…then again…anyone else???

Crossposted at Real Clear Politics - please “vote”  Please also read Wake Up America,  Armenian Genocide Bill Splits Democrats.  Please also see and read “Hello Dalli” at Right Truth (I don’t understand the “play on words”).

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This morning’s email from Stratfor had a questionnaire (and a subscription promotion) asking about the outlook for the coming months in Africa, Russia, Iraq and Pakistan.  Making predictions is easy.  Stating them publicly and standing by them is quite another.  FWIW, here are my topline answers.  The answers lie not so much in insight, but in objectivity…and clearly not in rose colored glasses.

My answers to these questions are marked.  Since most of these subjects have been covered here on this blog.  I will likely add some context during the day

·  Is the United States headed for conflict in Africa? Yes	Yes	No
·  Will U.S.-Russian relations improve in the coming months? NO	Yes	No
·  Will the United States pull out of Iraq? NO	Yes	No
·  Is the military losing its grip on Pakistan? YES	Yes	No

 

Africa
The United States is banding all of its African military operations into a new, separate command called AFRICOM. While AFRICOM officially will help only states that request assistance and participate in counter-terrorism activities, a reorganized U.S. presence in Africa cannot help but attract attention — and foes.

 

Storm comment:  From Morocco and Algiers all the way to Somalia, al Qaeda and the Islamic jihad is spreading.  That is a documented fact.   The emergence of al Qaeda in Algeria with the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)–now known as “Al-Qaida’s Committee in the Islamic Maghreb” claiming responsibility for the bombings in Algiers as well as seeking to foment violence in neighboring Morocco was discussed in the Counterterrorism Blog in April.  Additional detail was provided in War on Terrorism: Missing the Obvious

 

Russia
Russia is in the midst of a leadership transition, even as opportunities to expand its international influence are greater than ever. The only question is how Moscow will contain its internal chaos while still taking advantage of the United States’ problems in Iraq. But then, that assumes that the chaos is not part of Moscow’s plan.

 

Storm comment:  The new Russian Premier,  Viktor Zubkov has pledged to further bolster the national defence industry and fight rampant corruption, as Parliament overwhelmingly endorsed his appointment.  This comes following the saber rattling and muscle flexing of Vladimir Putin.

Iraq
Gen. David Petraeus has made his recommendations to Congress on the conduct of the war, and the Bush administration has adopted them. There are now two theaters in this war: in Iraq, where jihadists will make every effort to disrupt the state, while the U.S. military attempts to carry out the same mission with fewer troops; and in Washington, where partisan politics will continue to create a battleground in the months leading up to the 2008 elections.

Storm comment:  With all due respect to General Petraeus, I remain skeptical that a unified and democratic Iraq will emerge from all of this fighting.  And I do believe that the U.S. will have a presence in Iraq for many years to come.

Pakistan
The government of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf is failing – and thus exposing all the ethnic, linguistic, ideological and geographic splits in a nuclear-armed state that plays host to al Qaeda. The nature of the Pakistani government, as well as the entire Afghan front in the war on terrorism, hangs in the balance.

Storm comment:  I believe that my post from yesterday says it all,  Musharraf’s a “Dead Man” (Maybe Literally)

At the end of 2006, I made my own Year-end observations — 2006.  Soon we will see. 

The answers lie not so much in insight, but in objectivity…not in rose colored glasses.

This post is cross posted on Real Clear Politics. To let others read it, please vote.

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