StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

All together now. “The Taliban is dead and defeated.” “Afghanistan has never been better.” At least sixty people died in the massive truck bombing at the Marriott in Islamabad. There are some who think that President Zardari was the target. It is being called “Pakistan’s 9/11.”

New reports now suggest that the Danish Intelligence (maybe not CIA) was the target. Some of the “smart money” is that the real targets were CIA officers staying at the hotel. It actually matters little to the now nearly 100 people killed. Was it the CIA or the Danish Intelligence forces? We may not know for a while, if ever. One thing is certain. It is imperative to know that al Qaeda is not dead or defunct, and just because they have not struck in the United States in seven years does not mean that they will not at some point, and that they will continue to strike elsewhere with near impunity.

Pakistan is about to fall apart. Afghanistan is on the way. And the Taliban is alive and well. And oh! The line between the Taliban and al Qaeda is about as thin as a “cat’s hair.”

CIA, Islamabad bombing, Taliban, Zardari

7 Comments »

Obama…Palin, ad nauseum. I have written about it for months. Maybe now, as Pakistan devolves and Afghanistan unravels, perhaps, people will see.

Pakistan has warned the US that if our troops cross the border in pursuit of al Qaeda/Taliban, it will open fire.

Pakistan’s military has ordered its forces to open fire if U.S. troops launch another air or ground raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said Tuesday.

The orders, which come in response to a highly unusual Sept. 3 ground attack by U.S. commandos, are certain to heighten tensions between Washington and a key ally against terrorism. Although the ground attack was rare, there have been repeated reports of U.S. drone aircraft striking militant targets, most recently on Sept. 12.

Try to forget who is running for VP right now. Focus on the top spot. Oh sure. John is old(er). But who is wiser?

Head of the JCoS, Admiral Mullen has assured Pakistan that the US will respect Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Are you watching? Or are “you” so caught up in a debate comparing the qualifications of a candidate for Vice President to those of a candidate for President, that you are distracted and not seeing World events, perhaps more important, unfold?

Admiral Mullen

7 Comments »

I want to speak with the “bloggers” who think that Afghanistan is out of the woods! or that the Taliban is dead and gone! Two more SEALs (members of what used to be called SEAL Team 6) died earlier this week in Afganistan on a super secret mission. Leaving behind a wife and daughter each were Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator John Wayne Marcum, 34, and Chief (select) Special Warfare Operator Jason Richard Freiwald, 30.

Two G.I.s were slain in Afghanistan Wednesday, bringing the total to 113, plus 101 other foreign troops who have died. Last year’s U.S. death toll was 111.

For any of you people who blindly wave a flag and think that it makes you patriotic, recognize the following:

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress Tuesday: “I’m not convinced we’re winning in Afghanistan.”

Hat-tip to CTB (again) for the top notch posts.

Killed last week were Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator John Wayne Marcum, 34, and Chief (select) Special Warfare Operator Jason Richard Freiwald, 30, the Navy said. Each man had served in Iraq and Afghanistan and was a highly decorated SEAL. Before Harris, no DEVGRU SEAL had fallen in Afghanistan since March 2002, according to a review of Operation Enduring Freedom deaths at iCasualties.org.

This War on Terror is far from over. Anyone who thinks that a few positive press releases makes a victory is simply ignorant.

Chief (select) Special Warfare Operator Jason Richard Freiwald, SEAL Team 6, Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator John Wayne Marcum

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For a guy who I continue to believe lives only because the War(drug)lords allow him to live, Hamid Karzai has a big set of balls. He is now blaming the British for the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Some people may think they were, but the truth is that they were never gone.

Karzai claims Brown has threatened to withdraw British troops from Helmand province, where 31 of them have died this year, if the president reinstates two provincial governors sacked for alleged dealings in the heroin trade.

I simply cannot accept this “brain fart” from Hamid. The Taliban is still alive because (hold onto your hats my friends), because WE allowed them to live.

All of this “happy talk” about Afghanistan emerging as a free democracy is and was crap! If you actually doubt the consistency of my beliefs and position of this, please read this search of Storm Blog on the key words of losing Afghanistan.” Then since you insist, just check out any discussion of the Durand Line or the ways in which the Pakistanis have negotiated with the Taliban in the Northwest Tribal Regions. IMO, Karzai is a damn lucky man to still be alive!

Karzai, Taliban

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If you are student of history, is it that far fetched that as the Presidential Election nears that another October Surprise would sprout? Back in 1980, when the concept of “October Surprise” was first coined. Now, conspiracy theorists and analysts alike are conjecturing about what new revelation could occur before this election. I’ve wondered how our Intel could not ID bin Laden’s position, and “snagging” bin Laden has been my imperative for quite some time

Against the backdrop of the political turmoil in Pakistan, the U.S. is pressing to finally do what it should have done before. And therein lies the potential for the October surprise. And with it…surprise. President Bush will solidify his legacy and make it (alot) easier to defeat Obama.

The October surprise? Catch Osama, of course! Its always been a function of two key components: 1) intelligence and 2) U.S. ability to chase into Pakistan.

U.S. ground forces crossed the border from Afghanistan and attacked suspected al Qaeda targets in Pakistan on Wednesday as part of an aggressive new strategy to kill or capture Osama bin Laden before President Bush leaves office, U.S. officials said.

Don’t believe it? Read more here.

Pakistan is “protesting” the incursion, but really? Pakistan’s position is that it is a victim of terrorism.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry called the raid “a grave provocation” and “a gross violation of Pakistan’s territory. … Such actions are counterproductive and certainly do not help our joint efforts to fight terrorism,” the ministry said. “On the contrary, they undermine the very basis of cooperation and may fuel the fire of hatred and violence that we are trying to extinguish.”

There have been stranger October Surprises before. And by the way, for those who are reading this because they saw it on Real Clear Politics, go ahead and “push that button” before it disappears from the front page…that is if the “spirit moves you” to do so.

October Surprise, Osama bin Laden

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Reality to many is that the World has returned to great instability, although there some among “us” who have known all along that GWOT was intertwined with Global Politics. The question I have is why “we” (our government) are suprised by any of this!

So, what have we got? Long past, I wrote about Uncle Vlad’s desire to re-establish some semblance of the old Soviet Union. Certainly not with the trappings of Soviet Communism. It doesn’t matter, well maybe it does. A Russian form of capitalism, or the oligarchic structure could offer more complex issues for an insensitive U.S. government. What was it, just a few months ago when “all seeing and all knowing” Condoleeza Rice said, “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” That was February 21, 2007 for whoever is watching and listening. WTF?

And back on January 1, 2008 I wrote:

At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation. Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now. Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility. Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

My Xmas Eve statement was this, Iranian Reactor to Open in 2008:

I believe that we (the Bush Administration) continue to underestimate the renewed power and intentions of Vladimir Putin. Yet, according to one publication, The BulletinOnline, this helps the cause of non-proliferation. The thinking here is that if Russia supplies the HEU to Iran and removes the material, then Iran will not continue its own development, and the uses of the fuel will be more controlled. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir and Ahmadinejad.

- AND -

One must ask the serious question is we are watching as this is happening, and what we are planning to do. These deals are being couched as economic and trade…not offensive. Clearly, the Russian bear is revived, and the situation bears watching in 2008 as one of the critical International and National security issues. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir.

In October 2007, I wrote, Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing

Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet. There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.” The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t.

[SKIP]

Putin is not bluffing.  He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat?  I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”).  I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)

FOLLOW THESE POSTS TO SEE:
Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…

DEAR READERS, I am but an observer and interpreter, I am not an analyst in the true sense of the word. But someone needs to be asking the very obvious WTF questions of those who are!

We are seeing a re-emergence of the old Soviet model. Instead of communsim, we have their form of capitalism, along with Putin’s interpretation of old KGB tactics. Implications?

- Russian influence on peaceful settlement of any Mideast conflict
- geopolitical control or influence by U.S. vewrsus Russia in Central Asia is in play
- will NATO continue its role in Afghanistan (withdrawal could further destabilize region)
- what role will Russia have in that region?
- a reinstatement of a cold war like mentality between middle Europe (land locked) versus ocean states

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa.  But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union.  I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

And what of “cousin Pervez?” He is likely to be impeached or otherwise removed from his position as President. This instability shouldn’t be tolerable, but somehow…

Ahmadinejad, Musharraf, Putin

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The overly simplistic outlooks expressed by “the many” who see our victory vs al Qaeda in Iraq in a vacuum, without noting the “ebb and flow” of a morphing terrorism reveals an implausible blindness to the realities of the GWOT. While celebrating the handover of more provinces in Iraq to the post-Provisional government, lost is the view that al Qaeda and the like see none of the West’s boundaries pencil drawn on maps.

Yes, even as MSNBC declares that al Qaeda is less relevant to the outcome in Iraq, stating that while they haven’t been eliminated entirely, they are less of a threat, what of related areas of conflict, and what happens after the surge? And yes, as you will read in Amy Proctor’s article, Kuwait has opened diplomatic relations with Iraq. Yes, that is significant. And still, I have that nagging “yeah, but” feeling.

Even as it is noted that insurgents in Iraq are “giving up the fight,” the reports of al Qaeda redeploying their forces to Afghanistan, reopening that front in the GWOT, and worse, importing foreign fighters from Turkey, Central Asia, Chechnya and the Middle East, we cannot consider the victory in the now relative skirmish in Iraq to be a sign that we can allow our guard to go down. In fact, with the fresh influx of al Qaeda/Taliban troops to Afghanistan, I fear that we shall once again turn our attention to the once “won” war in Afghanistan.

There are at least two issues which are ignored by those who believe that victory in Iraq is more significant than it is…victory in Iraq which I believe can truly only be declared after the post-Provisional government there is stable and is able to not only provide security, but also reliable services to their people, cannot be determined in simple terms of turning over control to the Iraqis, or even by troop withdrawals by the U.S. The first, is the continuing instability in the north of Iraq where the Turks and Kurds continue to battle. Even without al Qaeda in Iraq, the region remains dangerously unstable.

The second, and probably more significant, issue is that al Qaeda is not a government, or maybe even not an organization. It is a system, and a very adaptable one at that. So, as with the ebb and flow of the sands on an ocean beach, moving ever so slowly with the tides, shifting from one place to the next, often seeing a particular beach grow by ten yards, while two others shrink in size, al Qaeda, a system and methodology of terrorism based on the jihad, continues to morph. Thus, the influence of foreign fighters must be considered.

The Small Wars Journal posted an interesting “interim” report titled, “Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan.”

The data demonstrates that Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen produce the most foreign fighters per Muslim, each averaging from four to eight times as many fighters as the average rate for the twenty countries analyzed. The second tier of foreign fighter producers consists of Kuwait, Syria, Tunisia, and Jordan. While all second tier countries produced less than half as many fighters as the top tier producers, they still produced more than the twenty-country average.

In the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio discusses that the attack at the Nuristan base on July 13th in Afghniastan was a complicated operation in which 200-500 Taliban took over an adjacent village before attacking. Here is a long but key quote:

The assault on the Wanat outpost was conducted by an alliance of extremist groups operating in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to reports. A senior Afghan defense official told Al Jazeera that “various anti-government factions including Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Hezb-i-Islami faction were involved” in the strike.

Tamim Nuristani, who served as governor of Nuristan before President Hamid Karzai relieve him of his post for criticizing a US airstrike that is thought to have killed Afghan civilians, said Taliban and Pakistani groups banded together for the attack. “The (attackers) were not only from Nuristan but from other districts,” Nuristani said.

“They are not only Taliban. They were (Pakistan-based) Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hezb-i-Islami, Taliban and those people who are dissatisfied with the (Karzai) government after these recent incidents,” Nuristani said, intimating the attack was revenge for the US airstrike. “They all came together for this one.”

And then Roggio discusses the mounting of U.S. troops on the border with Pakistan, returing fire of the Taliban fighters. Another quote, discussing the border:

Tensions along the ill-defined, rugged border have escalated since the Pakistani government initiated its latest round of peace accords with the Taliban and allied extremists in the tribal areas and settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province.

Some people’s mistaken belief that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq is more than a minor victory in the much longer war against Islamic extremism is naive in my opinion. Further, to not see the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq as much more than pushing the bully to another part of the playground is a dangerous outlook.

It must not be forgotten that al Qaeda will morph and shift and change as is required to adapt in the various skirmishes. Doug Farah discussed “The Morphing War Against Al Qaeda in Iraq” last February.

The point is that, while there seems to be little doubt that the al Qaeda-linked groups in Iraq are hurt, the next iteration of the groups may make them even harder to get at.

Perhaps celebrate the “victory” in Iraq (when it is actually time to do so). But do not try to convince me, or others who know more than I, that the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq will do nothing much more than shift their attention and their resources to other fields of battle that are softer and more vulnerable.

al Qaeda, morphing, State Department

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Deadliest attack in Kabul since the first “fall of the Taliban;” worst car bombing in Afghanistan since 100 died at dog fight in Kandahar in February 08. A vehicle born IED killed at least 40 people at the Indian mission in Kabul, among them were 4 stated to be Indian nationals (including the Indian Defence Attache, a Counsellor-level diplomat and two security guards).

This was apparently a targeted attack against the Indian minister with the other deaths being labeled as “collateral.”

There has been a sharp increase in acts of terrorism in Afghanistan since the new Government headed by Yousef Raza Gilani assumed office in Islamabad in the last week of March, 2008. NATO officers in Afghanistan have spoken of a 40 per cent increase in the infiltration of jihadi terrorists from the tribal belt of Pakistan into Afghanistan since the new Pakistani Government suspended military operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and entered into peace negotiations with them. Even as acts of terrorism—-including suicide terrorism— have increased in Afghan territory, there has been a sharp decrease in acts of suicide terrorism in Pakistani territory. This indicates that the new Government has made a deal with the Taliban allowing it to operate freely in Afghanistan in return for its stepping down its operations in Pakistani territory.

For pictures and a video of the gory details click on the links.

Let us recognize the point of what is meant by a “Long War.” The enemy has long patience. We do not. The enemy infiltrates places and organizations where we cannot (we don’t look like “them”). If you think for one second that the Taliban is defunct, kaput! or dead, you know nothing of the “Long War.” Even with great losses of troops and men, the Taliban, the jihadists, al Qaeda is resilient. Do you believe for one minute that our Defense Department or our State Department is not aware of this?

Department of Defense, Kabul, neo Taliban, U.S. State Department, VBIED

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If you read certain reports like this one, you might take the position that the War in Afghanistan against the Taliban is over (I like “brink of defeat” and “decapitated” - chuckle). Then there is the statement by Agha Lalai Wali, an official with the government-sponsored Peace and Reconciliation Commission in Kandahar who said, “The Taliban are getting stronger and stronger, and after they attacked the prison, that gave them higher morale.” How can that be?

Hundreds of Taliban fighters took control of seven villages in southern Afghanistan on Monday in what appeared to be a major offensive near the country’s second-largest city, according to Afghan officials.

Some people believe that the “sophisticated” and well planned jail break is an indication of the Taliban’s growing strength. IF the Taliban is losing the fight in Afghanistan, but moving to the Pakistani side of the Durand Line which in essence is a non-existent and arbitrary border between the two countries largely unrecognized by the mountain tribes, then I wonder who is actually winning or losing.

Kandahar jail break

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Coming on the heels of the U.S. bomb strike on the Afghan-Pakistani border that killed a dozen or so security and civilians, and the escape of nearly a 1000 Taliban from the Kandahar prison, we now witness the boastful Karzai saying that the Afghan army will pursue the Taliban on the Pakistani side of the border. I must be seeing things!

The Afghan government announced that 870 of the jail’s 1,005 inmates had escaped — including the vast majority of its 398 suspected rebels, the ones they call “political prisoners.”

It is said by Canadian officials that they hope that the newly reintroduced insurgents would not negatively impact on their troops. Further, in Friday’s Canadian National Post, they commented on the premature assessment that the Taliban was on its last legs.

That message has been one that NATO has been pounding home over the last several months. Canadian commanders hailed their latest mission, Operation Rolling Thunder, as proof coalition forces could pretty much go where they wanted in southern Afghanistan.

A couple of weeks ago, the top NATO commander in the country, U.S. Gen. Dan McNeill, told a journalist that the Taliban in southern Afghanistan had been routed and were fleeing toward safe havens in Pakistan.

In February, Britain’s Brig. Andrew Mackay said the Taliban had been brought to their knees in Helmand province. The insurgency was lacking fighters because of the large numbers killed by coalition troops, he added.

 
So ontop of this less than optimistic assessment there is Hamid Karzai threatening to invade neighboring Pakistan to pursue the Taliban escapees.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai threatened Sunday to send Afghan troops after notorious Taliban leaders inside Pakistan in an angry warning to his eastern neighbor that he will no longer tolerate cross-border attacks.

The threat — the first time Karzai has said he would send forces into Pakistan — comes only days after a sophisticated Taliban assault on Kandahar’s prison freed 870 prisoners, and six weeks after Karzai survived his fourth assassination attempt.

Now, in my opinion, the confluence of the events described above suggests strongly that the Taliban is far from dead and defunct; that while there are those who “wish” the Taliban to be kaput in Afghanistan to defuse calls from some camps to fight (and complete) the “real” war in Afghanistan by redeploying forces from Iraq. The other implications are that there is no real border. A number of people do not acknowledge the importance and controversy over the Durand Line. As I wrote “elsewhere” and earlier:

The Taliban are far from dead (IMO of course). The dynamics and ebb and flow of the battle in that region of the world are hard to follow for some. It isn’t as simple as moving pieces on a game board (like “Risk”). An oversimplification of the newly declared, and once again, premature death of the Taliban in Afghanistan is belied by the facts. One article in a British newspaper on line quoting British (NATO) forces does not strike the end of the Taliban. Whether in Afghanistan or Pakistan (or more likely in the tribal regions that “buffer” both pseudo-countries along the mythical border established by the Durand Line is inconsequential to the way things evolve. The prison break in Kandahar, not discussed I believe in any comment in this thread, in which 800-1000 Taliban fighters were sprung loose is an example. The ongoing poppytrade and the sex trade remain as a foundation for another rebirth.

Nearly three years ago the Taliban were declared dead and gone and defunct by NATO…they were not…and the NATO expert with whom I had a running on-line debate suddenly disappeared from the discussion. I remain hopeful, and yet I remain realistic and suprised that Karzai has survived. Frankly, I still believe that Karzai lives each day, only at the pleasure of the warlords (drug lords). If you decalre an end to the Taliban in Afghanistan, by default you are suggesting that the jihad is over there. That is a premature conclusion…

The implications further are that by challenging the Taliban so outwardly, Karzai, in my opinion, is simply putting a target on his back. Anyone want Karzai in the death pool?

Kandahar prison break, Karzai, NATO, Taliban

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Recently, in “another place,” a “debate” ensued about whether the Taliban had been decapitated in Afghanistan, and therefore troops did not have to be redeployed from there to Iraq. Have they been weakened (especially with the killing of Mullah Dullah?) Maybe. Is the Taliban defunct there? I don’t think so.

My argument begins with the question of the Taliban’s movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan…only if you differentiate Afghanistan from Pakistan (little difference except for those who wish to “see” it) is the Taliban on its way to being defunct.

The Drug-Terrorist Link Means Wars can Last Indefinitely
 

“Growing links between the drugs trade and the insurgency in the South will provide longevity to the Taliban,” the UK document says. “In the south, the drugs trade is fuelling the insurgency.” 

It adds: “This is compounded by government corruption. Karzai chooses to avoid rocking the boat with powerful narco figures and has not blocked their appointment as governors or other senior officials.”

In turn, Mr Karzai’s failure to tackle corruption and the drug lords “only increases popular disillusion,” further boosting the insurgency, the paper says.

Pakistan and the Growing Threat of a Sharia Mini-State
 

Recently, there have been negotiations and agreements between the Pakistan Taliban (or tribal leaders including Taliban representatives) and Pakistan governments in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), both of which are in the northwestern area of Pakistan. Pakistan has seen 4,500 killed in terrorist attacks over the past year and a half, and the Pakistan NWFP and FATA governments view agreements with the Pakistan Taliban as the solution to end the violence and find peace in their areas.

Taliban Defends Peace Accord with Pakistani Government
 

“We consider the peace accord in Pakistan as an internal affair, which pertains to that country alone—yet the occupation forces in Afghanistan and the forces hostile to Islam around the world oppose this peace accord and argue it will lead to an escalation in jihadi activities in Afghanistan. This claim is groundless and it is far from the truth… The occupying forces and their supporters are facing total defeat in Afghanistan, and therefore, they are trying to use these kind of statements and claims in order to distract the gaze of the Afghans and the rest of the world in another direction—so that the Afghan resistance will appear to be weak.”

Thus, from the CTB alone, there are more sources and contrary conclusions. Its that “pesky Durand Line” again.

First, let us not minimize the fact that the prison break in Kandahar City Afghanistan freed nearly 1000 Taliban fighters. But there is more going on here!

Despite the fact that Afghanistan is a very conservative country, the sex trade is rampant. And it gets “gooey” from there.

Afghanistan is one of the world’s most conservative countries, yet its sex trade appears to be thriving. Sex is sold most obviously at brothels full of women from China who serve both Afghans and foreigners. Far more controversial are Afghan prostitutes, who stay underground in a society that pretends they don’t exist.

Customs meant to keep women “pure” have not stopped prostitution. Girls are expected to remain virgins until their wedding nights, so some prostitutes have only anal sex.

Want more salacious “input?”

Some prostitutes are forced into the sex trade by their families. The Ora report said 39 percent of the sex workers interviewed found clients through their relatives — including 17 percent through their mothers and 15 percent through their husbands.

We’re also facing the possibility that a German-born Muslim convert Eric B. who authorities have been trailing for months may be planning a suicide attack in Afghanistan. You can “rose colored” glasses this thing (in Afghanistan and elsewhere), or you can consider that the Taliban ain’t dead (just yet at least) and that the War on Terror is constantly morphing.

Child sex in Afghanistan, Durand Line, Mullah Dullah, Taliban

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While many are focusing on “the defeat of the Taliban” in Afghanistan (I maintain a contrary outlook for now), outside influences are now meddling in the Kashmiri region of India…but look at the surrounding geography to see the picture of what might really end up happening.

According to Indian Defense Minister A K Antony:

“One thing is clear. Forces inside and outside India don’t want free, fair and peaceful elections in Kashmir. In the coming months we will see more insurgency and violence…”

Thus, the central government is beefing up security in Jammu and Kashmir. While there are no public accusations of who is behind thiese disruptions, it is easy enough to believe that Pakistani, Chinese and jihadist elements, as well as possible Maoist influences are in play here (yes, I know this is Nepal, but look at the map):

With Nepal’s three main parties now locking horns over the proposed integration of about 19,000 Maoist combatants into the national army, a top commander of the guerrilla force has suggested that it be developed into a separate security outfit.

“There are four security wings and we can make this five by adding the PLA (People’s Liberation Army),” Maoist central leader and commander Barsaman Pun told reporters.

The World is complicated place. The “chessboard” is checkered with many hands being played. Dismiss any one of the disruptive forces and the possible convergence of agendas, is not beyond the realm of possibility. I wonder if the US State Department is on this one?

Defence Minister A K Antony, Kashmir, Maoists, Nepal, U.S. State Department

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This is early, and the source is somewhat dubious since ABC has had a recent spate of “breaking news” blurts that diminishes the network to a “blogoburster,” but ABC is reporting that “officials familiar with highly sensitive intelligence on this issue,” that Iran and al Qaeda are in high level discussions. While questioning whether Iran will release bin Laden’s son’s (who are at the core of these discussions), the motives are unclear.

“The Iranians know there would be hell to pay if these guys were set free,” a U.S. official told ABC News.

“Iran likely sees these individuals, as major bargaining chips,” says another official. “How and when they’re going to use those chips or whether they are going to keep them in the bank is part of an ongoing strategic discussion they are having internally.”

Apparently, after September 11th, al Qaeda split into two groups, one heading to the mountains of Pakistan and the other, led by Saif al Adel (an Egyptian), went to Iran (Adel is suspected as the leader of the group that attacked the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 - the US State Department has put a $5 million bounty on his head). The group that fled to Iran is said to include al Qaeda’s shura (management council), and over 2 dozens members including some of bin Laden’s relatives, including two of his sons, Saad and Hamza.

“Al Qaeda would like to get those folks a deal and they’ve been trying to work a deal,” a senior defense official tells ABC News. “Right now there is greater effort being applied by al Qaeda to seek a resolution.” Although Iran has recently signaled a willingness to discuss the issue, this official says, “I don’t see the Iranian government desiring to work very fast or quickly on that. ”

AND

“Iran has repeatedly resisted numerous calls to transfer custody of its AQ detainees to their countries of origin or third countries for interrogations or trial,” the report says. “Iran also continued to fail to control the activities of some AQ members who fled to Iran following the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.”

Motives behind these reported talks?
* Under one theory, the talks are a reaction to al Qaeda’s recent anti-Iranian rhetoric…Iran may be making an unspoken threat to al Qaeda’s leadership: If al Qaeda attempts to attack Iran, these people will suffer.

* Iran may have initiated the talks as a threat to the United States, that if the U.S. takes hostile action against Iran, these captives could be released, set free to plot attacks against the West.

Either way, I have an issue with the ABC statement: ABC News interviewed several high-level U.S. national security officials for this story. Because of the sensitive nature of intelligence on this subject, all spoke on the condition that their names not be used. We also asked the government of Iran to comment on this story. The spokesman for the Iranian Mission to the United States said he could not answer our specific questions but told us combating terrorism “remains one of the main Iranian political priorities.”

Also covered by the Right Truth in Iran Joining Forces with al Qaeda.

Frankly, I’ll be interested to see how this all plays out in the next few days.

ABC News, al Qaeda, Iran, Kenya and Tanzania bombings, Saif al Adel

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As I have before, I find myself in a sort of political “nowhere land” largely because despite what I believe in my heart, I also have a deep-seated distain for the type of personal attack politics that now pervades our society. On many issues, including the War in Iraq, I am strongly Republican (even though I feel that policy, strategy and tactical mistakes have been made). Yet when I voice my pro-choice belief, I am immediately challenged and branded a “librul.” It is clear that one is not afforded the opportunity (or privilege) of walking that thin-line in the American Middle.

There is nothing in either Democratic Party candidate that could prompt me to vote for them. Frankly, I am glad that John McCain, regardless of his flaws (aren’t we all flawed afterall?), is the candidate for the Republican Party (I am equally thrilled that a social, or “values” conservative is not the party’s nominee).

At the same time, it is impossible to maintain my views in World and National Affairs, focused on security both home and abroad, and not be appalled by this video compilation in which the Democratic Party leaders ask for what amounts to be a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq.

The road to democracy, our continuing quest to perfect an already perfect Union, remains a challenge each day. If not motivated solely by partisan politics, but in fact, driven by strongly held beliefs, these Democratics leaders are entitled to their opinions.

The reality is as former Secretary of State Powell noted…”we broke it, we need to fix it” (or something close to that). Leaving Iraq and abandoning the Middle East…in fact, abandoning the “fix the Middle East” strategy of the Bush Administration can only lead to the emboldening of those people who our State Department and Department of Homeland Security refuse to call what they are, Isalamic Fundamentalist Jihadists, exactly the opportunity they plan…a World power without the resolve to see through to the end an effort, regardless how flawed, poorly planned and implemented, or even falsely justified…and with that, the Long War of the Global War on Terrorism will be both longer, and more difficult to win.

Prevail we must…for the sake of our democracy, we must. And we will. Despite the character assassination, the inuendo, the gossip, the lies and falsehoods, the “swift boating” and all of the rest of the dirty, Internet inspired politics…we will emerge the day after this coming election day with a President who will have won the most Electoral votes, and as envisioned by our Founding Fathers, power will transfer, and the Nation shall prevail. In what state the World will be on that day, is a completely different question.

democracy, librul, McCain

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Last week, under the title Pre-emptive Assassinations, I posed once again the merits of targeted assassinations of certain individuals. At the time, I was writing about people like Ahmadinejad and Chavez, but it could also hold for our jihadist “friends.” I have long favored sending a “black” team into the mountains of Pakistan to hunt down and kill bin Laden (and wondered why we haven’t sent them). There are many reasons why this hasn’t occurred. The least likely is Presidential Executive Order 12333 prohibiting the killing of World leaders. Afterall, bin Laden isn’t the head of any nation. It also cannot be that we don’t have the reason or the will to do it. My own conclusion is that we actually don’t know where he is, despite all of our Intelligence. It is possible.

Just the other day, my blog buddy at Right Truth posted, Target — Osama? In one of the comments to that post, another new “blog friend” posed a few suggestions that, frankly, I do not understand (not that I don’t see what he’s getting at, but more, that I’m not aware of the technology to which the individual refers). This is what he wrote (referring to the Waziristan Accords between Pakistan and the Taliban/tribes):

However, once the accord was established, it meant that we could walk into that region and take out OBL, but it never happened. We passed up a unique window of opportunity.

Given today’s GPS technologies and the ability to place a “beeper” inside a living body cavity, I am certain that they know the exact whereabouts of bin Laden. Maybe they’re just too concerned they might botch things up as usual. Why they never released an al-Qaida prisoner from GTMO, but infused a sensor inside his body is beyond me.

That might have allowed for easy detection, as the ex-prisoner would lead us directly to bin Laden, thus us being able to capture him alive, perhaps.

Now, without disclosure, and for alot of reasons, these suggestions “do not compute” for me (see “Lost in Space“). So I posed a couple of questions to the original commenter. Unfortunately, Right Truth is a busy place, and the individual did not see my queries. So, in case he “happens by” here at some point, I now reproduce those questions (because I really do want to know and be informed):

I am hoping that he will return at some point and provide some insight into the idea of our “ability to place a beeper inside a living body” (that would have to be done covertly)…or how we can “infuse a sensor” into bin Laden’s body. I only ask because I’m interested in such things

I’m not as certain as he is that we know the exact location of Osama. As for “infusing a sensor,” I’d be fascinated to know what technology we’re discussing here.

So, hopefully, with this blogs slower traffic, perhaps I will be illuminated.

bin Laden, targeted assassinations

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