StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

In the waning moments of the Presidential Election campaign, there is little left but the counting. I don’t know how it will turn out. I’ve voted already (just once). My mind races with things to say about the decision making power of the American electorate. In my rather short life to date (based on the longevity of men in my family, I’ve got a few laps of the track left), the “influencers” and “influences” on these decisions have certainly changed.

There is no wonder why we end up with the poor choices we have. Perhaps we deserve better, perhaps, we get what we deserve.

Alas, I believe that this is the best place for me to “get off the bus.”

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Many in the blogosphere crowd will be surprised by the answer to this question. But even the question and answer is raising the eyebrows of some people like Evan Kohlmann who know alot more about the al Qaeda mentality thant (I hate freakin’ typos!) almost everyone out there (including myself, of course).

In a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the “failing march of his predecessor,” President Bush.

The post apparently draws the conclusion that al Qaeda has successfully lured the U.S. into a trap that had “exhausted its resources and bankrupted its economy,” and goes on to suggest that a terrorist strike might swing the election to McCain and guarantee an expansion of U.S. military commitments in the Islamic world.

In Kohlmann’s post on Counterterrorism Blog, he points out that Randy Scheunemann and Jim Woolsey, McCain advisors quickly spoke to minimize the entry on al-Hesbah as a “blog entry.” Clearly, al-Hesbah is not just another blog site, nor is the propaganda in this particular post meaningless blog-blather.  Six months ago, on April 3, 2006, Al-Qaida’s Organization in Saudi Arabia issued an official communique regarding their relationship with Al-Hesbah: “We can only say good things about our brothers from the Al-Hesbah network…The brothers from Al-Hesbah have provided a superb service to the jihad and the mujahideen and everyone credits them for this.”

Of greatest importance to me and clearly supporting my views all along is Kohlmann’s conclusion that should be read and understood by each and every one of the blog-bursting citizen journalists who have exercised their freedom of speech to express their views to their minions who agree with them, even if the information posted there on their blogs has no real factual value (I’m not going to blockquote this section because it would de-emphasize the type face and I want it to be read):

“There is, of course, a degree of well-deserved irony in John McCain having to defend himself against charges of being a “terrorist enabler”. The McCain campaign has been unforgivably slow to condemn the vocal minority of their supporters at recent campaign rallies who have shouted out “Terrorist!” and “Kill him!” in response to hearing the name of Senator Barack Obama. The fact is, Al-Qaida’s real interest in the current American election cycle has nothing to do with choosing one candidate over the other — clearly, Al-Qaida doesn’t like either candidate. Rather, what Al-Qaida is hoping to witness this political season are internal recriminations, name-calling, racism, xenophobia, disunity, and America tearing at its own social fabric. The motivation is obviously not in crowning the victor, but in prolonging the game. Those foolish individuals who have shown up at political rallies carrying tasteless signs and threatening violence against their own fellow Americans are Al-Qaida’s real allies in this race. They are the ones who are responsible for providing a limitless bounty of propaganda fodder for our global adversaries — and there should be no tolerance in either campaign for such despicable behavior.”

Each every one of the amateurs should read that paragraph carefully, fully and then re-read it. In the search for what you believe is the truth, you have given al Qaeda and its followers, exactly what they wanted.

Is there an attack on the horizon? I don’t know and if I had that information, I wouldn’t be blogging. But contrary to the knee jerk reaction of Randy Scheunemann and Jim Woolsey from the McCain campaign, in my opinion, the meaningless “musings and bravado” has come from many of the conservative blogs that couldn’t focus on issues, and instead spent their time on name calling.

[This may be the best place for me to "get off the bus."]

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It is difficult to avoid the derogatory terms. But there is a massive human trafficking industry that has been created by another Cuban exodus. We have a serious problem here and neither of the candidates is addressing it. Illegal immigration is continuing. Our borders are not safe. And now the “Dusty Feet” are are our newest illegal arrivals.

U.S. Coast Guard patrols have sharply reduced the flow of Cubans across the narrow Florida Straits, enforcing a policy of returning people intercepted at sea to Cuba’s communist government.

It’s called “wet-foot, dry-foot” - wet for those caught at sea, dry for those who reach land in Florida and thus qualify for U.S. entry. A third expression has entered the jargon - “dusty-foot,” referring to Cubans who arrive in Texas, where Cubans need only present identity documents and undergo medical and background checks before being welcomed to America.

The price of passage is $5,000 to $10,000 per person and much shorter than in the days when Cubans would spend days at sea headed for Florida or Mexico on rickety boats and rafts. They were known as “balseros,” from the word “balsa” to indicate the flimsiness of their boats.

But the Mexican route is also becoming increasingly prone to violence.

Cut the crap people! Illegals, more illegals and many of them “other than Mexicans” are entering the United States through Texas. I once took a position that Congressman Steve King’s solution, an electrified fence was wrong. Now, I wonder if I was wrong. There are many other ways to guard our border, other ways to track the people entering the country illegally.

I suppose that I now even agree with Texas Fred. Shoot’em before they take over this place.

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Despite the relative calm and void of terrorist attacks on US soil, we are nonetheless a Nation at war. We all must remain vigilent and report anything, as a DHS agent said in a recent presentation that I attended, that “Doesn’t Look Right.” I some circles, a rumor of an attack on October 7 2008 had been spread. The concern is that the source of the initial analysis that was flawed, not that bloggers became the conduit of mis-information.

To think that a self-proclaimed homeland security expert (see this older post from Debbie Schlussel titled, UH-OH! Northeast “Intelligence” Network Steps In It: Fake “Terrorism Expert” Douglas Hagmann Admits Plagiarism, Fabricated Info), a “font of information” with a lack of credibility, and yet a large following (notably among only those who refuse to accept the fact that the National Intelligence Network - or NIN - and its self-proclaimed “experts” are not experts at all) actually knows more than any of our law enforcement agencies (DHS, FBI, NSA etc.) or know more than excessively credible counterterrorism websites and sources of information (one among the many being the Counterterrorism Blog), is what makes the “chicken little/sky is falling” hurricane of words, and bits and bytes, more distrubing. Ask the intelligent question, rather than relying on an unreliable source like NIN. Would none of these credible sources have written something to alert the citizenry if this supposed threat had any merit?

Of course, the argument will always be, “better right than sorry,” or “don’t worry about or be embarrassed for being wrong.” That’s all true. The problem is the source of the information, not the intention of the bloggers who spread the illicit rumor.

In my opinion, spreading an unsubstantiated rumor from a less than credible source, is exactly what the terrorists want. The more often the populace is in any way alerted to an impending terrorist attack, the more desensitized the populace will become, and the less likely they are as a broad population to be ready to respond and react when the real terrorist alert comes. Since I am passed the point of caring, the simple point is that bloggers who choose to spread information from less than credible sources, then “bicycle the blog articles around to other bloggers” do this country a huge disservice. I’m not calling these citizen journalists anything like “unpatriotic.” Quite the opposite, they are doing what they feel is the right and patriotic thing to do (albeit perhaps they are quite naive). But in spreading misinformation and bad intelligence from a less than “intelligent” source, they are not serving the public good. Thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands people, walked around the last few weeks thinking that we were going to be attacked yesterday, and yet, we were not attacked.

In my entire circle of friends and associates, many of whom are in the business of counterterrorism and law enforcement and national security, none ever even mentioned the rumored attacks of October 7th, 2008. That is not to say that another attack on US soil is not coming. Someday, regettably, I believe that we will be attacked, and perhaps that attack will happen sooner than later. Perhaps, even, that attack will come from within, from a US based terrorist group, maybe not even one connected to the jihad.

One thing is certain to me (and I care not about any flack I might take for writing this entry or for what I am about to say).

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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Wake Up! There is no doubt in my feable mind that when I wrote Losing Afghanistan (Reduxed Again) nearly 10 months ago that I either guessed really well, or I was simply, right! I vote for “right.” This position is supported by Doug Farah’s post, “Trying to Get it Right in Afghanistan, and Ignoring the Elephant in the Room”

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, has sounded the alarm on Afghanistan, correctly pointing out that the danger of losing there is real and the hour is late.

It is fitting, on this day, to remember that our collective inability to get Afghanistan right once before helped give our enemies the opportunity to plan and execute the 9/11 attacks that are being remembered today.

What is striking about the published reports of Mullen and Defense Secretary Gates is the absence of any discussion of one of the driving forces of the Taliban’s mounting success: its access to tens of millions of dollars in opium and poppy money. The UN conservatively estimates the Taliban makes between $50 million and $70 million a year from the drug trade.

Oh, sure, some of my supposed counterterrorism blogger cohorts might offer a different view. Of course, it has been argued more than once before that Afghanistan was on the road to recovery and democracy. My opinion has consistently been contrary to that. I’ve been accused of being unpatriotic, I’ve been accused of not supporting our troops who were acclaimed as having been victorious against the “defeated” Taliban, and for my point of view, I have been called a “librul.”

Still, Afghanistan remains on the brink. Hamid Karzai has an attitude that may only be solved by his assassination. To stop this very real resurgence of the Taliban, their supply of money needs to be chopped off.

If the US and NATO is serious about improving the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s money stream must be cut off. That stream is heavily dependent on opium. Ignoring that reality is not a policy.

History repeats. Sometimes we have the ability to stop it. Other times, we ignore the obvious. If you’re at all interested in reading further, you can review some of the historical Storm posts on the subject of Losing Afghanistan. Its time to open your eyes…unless you want to be “surprised” in a few months by events as they evolve.

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I am an American - “Ich bin New Yorker.”

Each day, every day, I remember the moments of September 11th.  Even though I am no longer living there,  to paraphrase JFK, "Ich bin New Yorker."  Perhaps on September 11, 2001 at 8:48am, we were all at once New Yorkers, or all a unified group of Americans.

Our resolve as a country, however, has waned.  It is not that we as a citizenry forget…it is that the message has been blended with the War in Iraq.  We are at war and it is a War on Global Islamic Fundamentalist Jihadism.  Its not politically correct perhaps, but it is what it is.

Today, we will each in our ways remember that morning.  I will, as I do each year now, remember, and I will relate my stories of what I saw and how I felt.  And I will, whether in public or simply to myself, sing "America the Beautiful" or "God Bless America" (I sound nothing like Kate Smith)…and I will shed tears for those who perished, and shed even more tears for the permanent and perpetual changes to our lives that began at that moment.

Some of what I have written in retrospect about this day, September 11th.

Written September 12, 2001:
Amazing how far and how much my "non-combative" spirit of the 60’s and 70’s has turned more conservative. No doubt, for me, and others like me, yesterday was unlike any day we have ever experienced. As a post-war baby-boomer, there are nothing but newsreels to show us Pearl Harbor. Yesterday interrupted me from leaving for work, stopped me in my tracks, made me quiet, caused tears, and created anger. And then, fear of what might have happened to people that I knew. Right now, I suppose that I am lucky, if that is the word, that no one in my immediate family, or that of my ex-wife, or even friends of my daughter were not directly involved. But this afternoon, I spoke to a friend of mine in WDC who was resigned to having lost dozens of long-time friends and associates who were in the section of the Pentagon that was obliterated. And he reminded me that this particular section was the one in which he and I had met for a series of meetings two years ago. And the realization, however distant two years makes it, that I had walked the halls of that building where now, there is nothing but rubble. And then there is a "near-miss" story told to me by a friend whose youngest daughter passed away in March from complications from a digestive disorder. His oldest daughter works for a fashion designer in Manhattan and was supposed to go to Los Angeles yesterday morning on the flight that crashed after leaving Newark Airport. Because her dad, my friend was coming east to be with his father-in-law who is sick, she decided to stay. She assigned her assistant to go in her place. As luck would have it, the assistant didn’t want to leave that early, so she rescheduled to a later flight.

She was at the airport when word came of the crashes.

In principal, believe in peace. But there is no principal in my opinion in this situation.

Retribution and retaliation. Strong and final. I make no apologies for my feelings.

Written September 13, 2001:
I am an American, who has cried and trembled at the sights on TV.

I am an American, with compassion, yet anger.

I am an American, who once fought against fighting.

Yet tonight, I am an American, who wants nothing less than retaliation and full retribution.

I am an American, despite what others once thought when it was clear that I disagreed with some of the more American fundamentalist views. 

Somehow, some believe that this is the time for reconciliation with friends of old. This is a free country, with freedom of speech and freedom of movement, but some of us do not have that choice, since we were selectively excluded from that exclusive "club of patriots" and have no desire to change what is, or return to
what was (of course, in truth, I speak only for myself). This is a time of great stress and emotion. I have cried spontaneously since Tuesday morning, and my anger has grown about what has happened. It doesn’t change what was or happened.

I am who I am, and what I am. I make no apologies for that.

Written June 24, 2005
"Everything Changed on September 11, 2001"

The morning of September 11, 2001, we all became one, we all came together, the Members of the House of Representatives and the Senate stood on the steps of the Capitol Building and sang God Bless America. That morning, every one of us felt the emotions and feelings of being attacked. Every one of us, not just Democrats and Republicans, not just “Liberals” and “Conservatives,” but all of us as Americans.

During those days and nights that followed, we all knew the meaning of this is my country, land that I love!  Every one of us, not just Democrats and
Republicans, not just “Liberals” and “Conservatives,” but all of us as Americans.

So lets all do me a favor! Okay??? (Tongue planted in cheek, and no obligation, for sure!)

Don’t tell me how to think, just because you happen to disagree with me. Just what makes you think that you are right, and I am wrong? We are all Americans, or have you forgotten that?

Don’t tell me that I am any less patriotic than you are, just because you believe one thing and I believe another. Do you understand that “love of country” permits the questioning of authority and the decisions made by the Government? Ever hear the phrase, “my country right or wrong?” If I choose, I can disagree with the position of our Government, and it does not mean that I am any less patriotic than those who agree with our Government. We simply disagree. But we are all Americans, or have you forgotten that?

If you served in the military, you have my admiration and respect. But don’t flaunt that service in my face and imply that somehow you are a “better American” than I or that your service to our country was somehow qualitatively better than mine. Because if you don’t know what I am doing, and you don’t understand the qualitative benefits that I am striving to offer our country, than you just shouldn’t do it. We are all Americans, you and I, or have you forgotten that?

Don’t tell me how (or if) I should pray to the Higher Being, because each and everyone of us has the right to freedom of religion granted to us by our Founding Fathers. If I believe that the Higher Being is actually beneath the soil and not in the Heavens above, who are you to question my belief or to belittle what I believe. It is my right as an American to believe whatever it is that I believe. And yet, we are all Americans, or have you forgotten that?

Don’t do it! Don’t tell me how I should feel, or try to make me feel any less of an American because you have a different point of view, and you somehow feel compelled to try to either convert me to your position, or belittle me for holding my opinions. Don’t do it! It makes you less of an American than I. Don’t do it! If you feel so strongly about your views, then fine, I am happy for you. But that doesn’t give you the right to belittle, denigrate or otherwise ridicule a position that disagrees with yours.

As an American, you have the Freedom of Speech and you have the Freedom of Religion, but neither gives you the freedom to minimize, denigrate belittle or otherwise disrespect whatever it is that I believe, think or feel. You don’t have the right to tell me how to pray to the Higher Being. You don’t have the right to belittle me, just because you disagree with me.

Many here served in the military. Still, others, including me, serve our country in different ways. There is no telling how many lives my efforts will save if we are successful in our current campaign. And it will be done in anonymity. And yet, I am an American, just like you.

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For a guy who I continue to believe lives only because the War(drug)lords allow him to live, Hamid Karzai has a big set of balls. He is now blaming the British for the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Some people may think they were, but the truth is that they were never gone.

Karzai claims Brown has threatened to withdraw British troops from Helmand province, where 31 of them have died this year, if the president reinstates two provincial governors sacked for alleged dealings in the heroin trade.

I simply cannot accept this “brain fart” from Hamid. The Taliban is still alive because (hold onto your hats my friends), because WE allowed them to live.

All of this “happy talk” about Afghanistan emerging as a free democracy is and was crap! If you actually doubt the consistency of my beliefs and position of this, please read this search of Storm Blog on the key words of losing Afghanistan.” Then since you insist, just check out any discussion of the Durand Line or the ways in which the Pakistanis have negotiated with the Taliban in the Northwest Tribal Regions. IMO, Karzai is a damn lucky man to still be alive!

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Once again, there is a spreading (and almost hopeful) rumor that an attack on Iran is impending. The source? Primarily the Dutch newspaper, De Telegraaf. More “stuff” is here. Who knew that the Dutch had spies.

Let’s deal with a few “pointers.”

1) As noted “elsewhere” by one of our readers, AC McCloud, “It would be stupid for Bush to authorize an attack before the election with the Dems tying McCain to his belt loop at every chance.” Note however that the NRO article (below) does argue that an attack while under the new President (regardless of who it is) would be unlikely and that, therefore, an attack with GWB still in office to “clean-up” business could occur (I still don’t think so - but I could be wrong).

2) Despite the “cheering and rooting section” who somehow believe that an attack against Iran would be a good thing (I also read that a pre-emptive strike against Iran would leave Iran powerless to retaliate), it should be remembered that extreme heat will turn desert sand into glass (actually this hapens at approximately 3,600°F which is 1,982°C).

3) I submit that the linkage of the newly emboldened Russian bear with Iran makes a pre-emptive strike against Iran a “poor choice.”

4) About 3 weeks ago, Haaretz (הארץ) published an article detailing how the US had rejected an Israeli plan to attack Iran and denied Israel war materiale for the attack.

5) The regional and Global implications of such an attack are, in my opinion, beyond comprehension.

A little less than a year and a half ago, this was discussed here, Sneak Attack Against Iran This Friday! and yet, it is still “predicted.”

What’s the truth? I suspect that James Robbins of National Review (Another Rumor of War) is pretty close to objective when he writes:

Is an attack along the lines of that reported by De Telegraaf feasible? Critics say our forces are stretched thin, but not the air and naval strike assets that would be used in this type of limited operation. The targets would be hard to hit, but not impossible to take out. The Iranian nuclear program would be delayed, not destroyed — but isn’t delay better than just letting them go ahead? Iran might seek to escalate the crisis in a number of ways — an Iranian general recently said World War Three would break out while being a bit unclear on who would be on what side — but there is no scenario in which the U.S. would not be able to maintain escalation dominance. Iran can do many things to hurt the United States, its allies, and its interests — in fact is already active in Iraq and elsewhere. But Iran will have to calculate whether a demonstration of their unconventional power will be worth the risk of a full scale demonstration of U.S. conventional force. In this vein, witness Syria’s response to Israel’s raid on their nuclear facility last September. We’re still waiting for it.

I have no idea whether any of these reports of imminent action are true. But as the various clocks keep ticking, the strategic logic of active counter-proliferation against Iran becomes more compelling. The U.S. may act, Israel may act, or not. We will know soon enough, one way or the other.

What do I really think? Armageddon is still a way off, regardless of what some of the cyber-sabre rattlers think.

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With the release of papers of former DCI Richard Helms, we learn that before the 1973 Yom Kippur War (and after the Munich Massacre), Henry Kissinger instructed the CIA to maintain contact with Arafat, even after the kidnapping and murder of the U.S. Ambassador and his deputy in Khartoum, Sudan.

The released documents cover the period of 1973-1976 when Helms was the U.S. Ambassador to Iran (following his six year stint as Director of the CIA) and show:

● an Egyptian effort to have the U.S. through Iranian channels plead with Israel to withdraw to 1967 boundaries

● a proposal by the Shah of Iran for Egypt to limit their actions to an artillary barrage on Israeli positions in the Suez rather than an invasion

In a telegram Helms sent Kissinger - then Richard Nixon’s National Security Advisor - on July 5, 1973, Helms reported that King Hussein of Jordan told him that Jordanian intelligence had learned of a Syrian attack to recapture the Golan Heights originally planned for June, that had been delayed but could take place at any time soon. One of the Jordanian intelligence sources was the commander of a Syrian armored brigade, and the Jordanians had obtained a copy of the battle plans, which had been coordinated with Egypt and Iraq.

Additionally, Ali Hassan Salameh who was head of the Fatah security apparatus and commander of the Black September group, apparently met with Robert Ames of the CIA, knowing of Salameh’s involvement on the Sudan assassinations. Salameh asked about Nixon Administration intentions toward the PLO, and told Ames that they were planning to remove Jordanian King Hussein and establish a Palestinian homeland in Jordan. The Nixon government response was that it would assist in negotiations but not support the toppling of existing governments. Arafat also threatened Lebanon, apparently claiming that he would burn Beirut to the ground if Lebanon acted against the Palestinians.

Not negotiate with terrorists? But no one can know how the World would have evolved if…

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As we approach the 7 year mark post Sept 11th, Americans need to be reminded about the prupose of the War on Terrorism. Actually, we shouldn’t need it. But as President Bush prepares to leave office, he is seeking to re-affirm that we are at war with al Qaeda.

Sound strange? Well, I’ve been concerned about American complacency from when the last of the public funerals of those who died in the attacks. And yet, partly because of the passage of time, and partly because the focus of attention has been on Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran as pieces of geography instead of battlegrounds in the war versus al Qaeda. It was al Qaeda that attacked us on September 11, 2001. It was al Qaeda that attacked us at the USS Cole and at the African embassies.

Seven years after the Sept. 11 attacks, Mr. Bush’s advisers assert that many Americans may have forgotten that. So they want Congress to say so and “acknowledge again and explicitly that this nation remains engaged in an armed conflict with Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and associated organizations, who have already proclaimed themselves at war with us and who are dedicated to the slaughter of Americans.”

The language, part of a proposal for hearing legal appeals from detainees at the United States naval base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, goes beyond political symbolism. Echoing a measure that Congress passed just days after the Sept. 11 attacks, it carries significant legal and public policy implications for Mr. Bush, and potentially his successor, to claim the imprimatur of Congress to use the tools of war, including detention, interrogation and surveillance, against the enemy, legal and political analysts say.

Some lawmakers are concerned that the administration’s effort to declare anew a war footing is an 11th-hour maneuver to re-establish its broad interpretation of the president’s wartime powers, even in the face of challenges from the Supreme Court and Congress.

If not in any other way, this Global War on Terrorism has been miserably mismanaged. September 11th was not and should not be treated as a singular event in history. Aside from the fact that other al Qaeda attacks pre-date Sept. 11th, the question now is how the war will be waged following the election of the next President

Perhaps the attempt to tuck language into legislation is a bit “funky,” but the fact is that too many Americans have lost focus. Many of those Americans are on Capitol Hill. Sadly my dear reader, we have lost our way in my opinion. Paraphrasing: if we forget history, it will repeat itself. We are at a cross roads in our Nation’s history. If we choose wisely, we may actually remain vigilent and remain prepared for the coming of the next attack on our Homeland. “Choose wisely grasshopper” when voting this November. There is only one real choise, and his name is John McCain.

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Reality to many is that the World has returned to great instability, although there some among “us” who have known all along that GWOT was intertwined with Global Politics. The question I have is why “we” (our government) are suprised by any of this!

So, what have we got? Long past, I wrote about Uncle Vlad’s desire to re-establish some semblance of the old Soviet Union. Certainly not with the trappings of Soviet Communism. It doesn’t matter, well maybe it does. A Russian form of capitalism, or the oligarchic structure could offer more complex issues for an insensitive U.S. government. What was it, just a few months ago when “all seeing and all knowing” Condoleeza Rice said, “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” That was February 21, 2007 for whoever is watching and listening. WTF?

And back on January 1, 2008 I wrote:

At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation. Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now. Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility. Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

My Xmas Eve statement was this, Iranian Reactor to Open in 2008:

I believe that we (the Bush Administration) continue to underestimate the renewed power and intentions of Vladimir Putin. Yet, according to one publication, The BulletinOnline, this helps the cause of non-proliferation. The thinking here is that if Russia supplies the HEU to Iran and removes the material, then Iran will not continue its own development, and the uses of the fuel will be more controlled. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir and Ahmadinejad.

- AND -

One must ask the serious question is we are watching as this is happening, and what we are planning to do. These deals are being couched as economic and trade…not offensive. Clearly, the Russian bear is revived, and the situation bears watching in 2008 as one of the critical International and National security issues. The question is whether anyone wants to trust Russia and Vladimir.

In October 2007, I wrote, Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing

Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet. There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.” The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t.

[SKIP]

Putin is not bluffing.  He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat?  I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”).  I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)

FOLLOW THESE POSTS TO SEE:
Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…

DEAR READERS, I am but an observer and interpreter, I am not an analyst in the true sense of the word. But someone needs to be asking the very obvious WTF questions of those who are!

We are seeing a re-emergence of the old Soviet model. Instead of communsim, we have their form of capitalism, along with Putin’s interpretation of old KGB tactics. Implications?

- Russian influence on peaceful settlement of any Mideast conflict
- geopolitical control or influence by U.S. vewrsus Russia in Central Asia is in play
- will NATO continue its role in Afghanistan (withdrawal could further destabilize region)
- what role will Russia have in that region?
- a reinstatement of a cold war like mentality between middle Europe (land locked) versus ocean states

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa.  But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union.  I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

And what of “cousin Pervez?” He is likely to be impeached or otherwise removed from his position as President. This instability shouldn’t be tolerable, but somehow…

Ahmadinejad, Musharraf, Putin Sphere: Related Content

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Normally, I don’t quote such a “laudable” news source as the WorldNet Daily, but in this exceptional case, they have admitted that the conspiratorial NAU is a “dead dream.” Now is the time for all of those who sprung into action to stop something that never was, to step up and admit they had chased a demon of a different color.

The Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America is dead, says Robert A. Pastor, the American University professor who for more than a decade has been a major proponent of building a North American Community.

Whether or not the SPP is dead or not is still in question. Mutual cooperation between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico is a desireable, if not currently advisable goal. However, it is the truth, now, as it has been before, for all of the “heavy lifters” to come to their senses (these are the people who insisted that North American Union was going to happen, that U.S. sovereignty was going to be obliterated by the Council for Foreign Relations, or that the “plan” was designed to enable free transit across our already porous border with Mexico) to own up to the reality that they were wrong!

“The April summit meeting was probably the last hurrah for the SPP,” Pastor wrote, referring to the fourth annual SPP meeting held in April in New Orleans.

According to Pastor, bureaucracy has prevented to attainment of this “dream.”

PULEEZ! The White Paper published by the Council for Foreign Relations was a “think-piece.” It wasn’t a statement of policy, hidden or otherwise. Unfortunately, some people took it as a given (question: did they know what a “think-piece” is?).

Stormwarning - speaking…well, #!@&!^Q(*.

debunking the North American Union Sphere: Related Content

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Considering the US Navy exercise (Exercise Stake Net Protects Persian Gulf) it should come as no surprise that the Iranians test fired missiles.  The situation in the Gulf is unquestionably tense and dangerous…the real question is what happens next (”who blinks”).

One day after threatening to strike Tel Aviv and United States interests if attacked, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were reported on Wednesday to have test-fired nine missiles, including one which Tehran claims has the range to reach Israel.

Everyone, STAND-DOWN! Stand-down, especially those who desire the “end-game” scenario to play out. It is not “the” time!

end game scenario, Exercise Stake Net, missile test fire, Persian Gulf, Straits of Hormuz Sphere: Related Content

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Startling disclosure in an intercepted email from an imprisoned Ghanaian. The man is in prison for smuggling East Africans into the US, supposedly for economic reasons (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan). Officials are concerned that terrorists could use the same channels.

In the 12 months that ended last Sept. 30, U.S. officials caught 372 East Africans trying to get into the country, the assessment said. This is the most from these countries since the Homeland Security Department was formed in 2003. And 159 people from the same countries have been caught trying to enter since Oct. 1 - including 138 from Eritrea, far more than any other country in the Horn of Africa.

Apparently one illegal channel is closed, another is opened.

Mohammed Kamel Ibrahim, a 26-year-old Ghana citizen living in Mexico known as “Silk the Shocker,” wrote in an Oct. 24, 2006, e-mail to an associate that he would have no problem smuggling somebody into the United States.

“I will pay my immigration friend 2 days before he comes so that he can be waiting for him immediately he gets out of the flight. that way there is no questioning,” Ibrahim wrote in the same e-mail.

Its not just Mexicans. Preferred routes include:

East Africa ===> Johannesburg, South Africa ===> Sao Paulo, Brazil
East Africa ===> flew from Abu Dhabi, Dubai, or Rome to Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela

The smugglers have access to fake and real Belizean, Bolivian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian and South African visas.

Its not just Mexicans, now is it? Technology may be one way to help stop or slow this. However, Janice Kephart, former counsel to the Sept. 11 Commission said, “They do what they need to based on what their end goal is.”

East Africa, human smuggling, other than Mexicans Sphere: Related Content

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After Iran made noise about blocking the Straits of Hormuz if it was attacked, the US Navy mounted an exercise, “Stake Net” to show our resolve in keeping the shipping lanes open.

Two U.S. vessels were taking part in the exercise alongside a British warship and one from Bahrain, a Gulf Arab ally which hosts the Fifth Fleet. “Stake Net seeks to help ensure a lawful maritime order as well as improve relationships between regional partners,” the fleet’s statement said.

The exercise included ships from the UK and Bahrain. Noted as Combined Task Force 152.

Coalition units participating in the exercise include the dock landing ship Pearl Harbor, frigate Curts, the HMS Montrose, the Bahraini guided-missile patrol craft Al-Taweelah and other regional navies.

So, the regional game of chess continues. Will diplomacy and war games win out over “happy trigger finger” conservatives? Lets hope so.

In “Appeasers make poor patriots,” The Right Truth discusses the potential Iran-Israel “end-game” scenario.  Further, that post draws a Chamberlainesque parallel between today’s World stage and that of 1936-38.  I do not agree with that comparison.  Further, I do not believe that attempting to negotiate a path forward to avoid nuclear conflagration and holocaust in Israel is wrong.    But negotiation is not appeasement. That is not to say that war and conflict is not an option, because it is.  I realize that taking this position opens me to accusations that I am an appeaser, or worse, that I am a “poor patriot.”  Of course, that would be simple drivel.

The World is a dangerous place… One of the dangers of the Internet is that in the blogosphere, people, even well-intended, profer opinions that are dangerous, and yet, people read them and then appropriate them as their own.  To judge someone’s patriotism by their outlook on World events is wrong…simply wrong.

Bahrain, Combined Task Force 152, Exercise Stake Net, State Department, Straits of Hormuz Sphere: Related Content

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