StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

A real life parable on “wealth redistribution.”

Does it work? Experiment!

In a local restaurant my server had on a ‘Obama 08′ tie, again I laughed as he had given away his political preference–just imagine the coincidence.

When the bill came I decided not to tip the server and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed more in need–the homeless guy outside.

The server angrily stormed from my sight.

I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him to thank the server inside as I’ve decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.

At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn even though the actual recipient deserved money more.

I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

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Not only should we have seen it coming, but its all about the oil.  OK, sure, Putin wants to flex the Russian bear’s muscles, but its oil, its economics, and its another instance of shortsightedness in World affairs.

First, the missed signals and the opportunity to have acted sooner (rather than the later…in this case, the “cow/bear is out of the barn”). Anne Applebaum from the Washington Post once again and very pointedly describes the core issue in A Threat Explodes In Georgia.

Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular “frozen” conflict has escalated right now.

Most importantly (read the whole article please) is this:

In any case, the time to deal with this conflict is not now but was two, or even four, years ago. For a very long time it has been clear that there was a security vacuum in the Caucasus; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not emerge well from a confrontation; and that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas and, above all, the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement. And now it may be too late.

This is the very same Anne Applebaum whom I quoted in a previous post on June 9, 2007:

Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.

Now, about the motivations and “its the oil stupid!” As I observed the other day in Uncle Vlad, etc.:

Cold war with missiles aimed at each other? Probably or maybe not. Nuclear diplomacy? Watch and see, There is a reason for Putin and Ahmadinejad playing with eachother sub-rosa. But its more likely about the oil (”stupid”) and about Putin seeing the economic power of the European Union. I suspect that he literally sees a reforming of the Soviet Union as a means to the end of economic power, as well as a re-emergence of Russia as a World power.

In an event likely to be related to the Russian invasion of Ossetia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was struck by PKK (Kurdish Workers Party):

The BTC pipeline was hit by an explosion on Turkish territory on Aug. 5, two days before the conflict began over the South Ossetia region and the oil flow had halted. Turkish officials and the operator company, BP, had said the line was not affected by the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

AND (IMPORTANTLY)

An adviser to the Russian parliament also claimed the closed pipeline would not be opened again and declared the line is “dead”.

“The world and countries in the region have seen that not NATO, but Russia is the only one who could secure the energy routes,” Alexander Dugin, international politics advisor to the Russia’s Duma, told Turkish Cumhuriyet daily.

“In this context, regarding Turkey’s energy politics, it should be said that the BTC is not running at the moment and it will not run again.”

Have you any doubts? Consider this. I don’t work for the gov’t or any analyst group (although I do write “real” articles elsewhere). Why is it so clear (and has been for quite some time) to me that Russia through Putin’s aspirations was about to re-assert itself, when the Administration, even as recently as this week, can say that the times of the Cold War are over? Don’t believe this? Here:

“The cold war is over,” President Bush declared Friday, but a new era of enmity between the United States and Russia has emerged nevertheless. It may not be as tense as the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, for now, but it could become as strained.

Russia’s military offensive into Georgia has shattered, perhaps irrevocably, the strategy of three successive presidential administrations to coax Russia into alliance with the West and integration into its institutions.

Cold War over? Think again! But, President Bush at his Crawford Ranch and elsewhere has said of Putin, “I call him Vladimir.”

Its so plain and simple…as written in the NY Post article, Raping Georgia:

The Kremlin is determined to break Georgia’s will - and keep the feisty republic out of NATO.

Russia, you see, still believes it’s entitled to all of its former empire. And, tragically, “Old Europe” is back: Yesterday, Germany and other nervous European states bought the Russian line that Georgia is the aggressor. Wouldn’t want to anger Moscow…

While we see Russian tanks and aggression, it is, ultimately, about oil and economics, and about Uncle Vladimir re-asserting the power and influence of the once (and future) “mighty Russian bear” as a pseudo-Super Power. Other material available in Right Truth’s discussion of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, here.

Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan oil pipeline, U.S. State Dept.

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I’m interested how those who claim that the economy isn’t “so bad” can explain the following (and still deflect blame). The myopic view of the conservo-pseudo-patriots misses the interplay of economic policy (weak dollar), geo-politics (Israeli-Iran conflict), and the economy (unemployment at 5.5%).

The unemployment rate rose a half of a percentage point to reach 5.5% in May (hasn’t been that bad since 1986).

Understandably, the DJIA lost almost 400 points, but then the price of oil rose dramatically.

Other bad news:

● Oil jumped nearly $11 to close at a record $138.54 a barrel today (there is one source indicating that today’s price jump is a result of a senior Israeli politician raising the specter of an attack on Iran (one of Olmert’s deputies called an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities as “unavoidable“) and the dollar falling sharply against the euro.
● Home foreclosures reached a record high in the first quarter of 2008 to nearly 1% of all homes.
● Lehman is looking to raise another $5 billion to shore up a teetering balance sheet.
● The dollar dropped to a weekly low on speculation that the Fed will not hike interest rates due to the weak employment data.

The recession is here and now. World events play a big role in the price of oil. Federal policy contributes (just like Alan Greenspan played a role in bringing on the last recession, Bernanke’s “efforts” are working hard to pull the economy further into a hole including his statement that the FED won’t be reducing interest rates further). This is bad news, especially for anyone who doesn’t want to see Obama become President.

economy, Iran Israeli, oil price, Olmert

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Not paying enough for gasoline yet?  No doubt that the weak dollar has a bunch to do with the price at the pump.  Prices here have gone from $2.79 to $3.19 per gallon in less than a month with another 25¢ expected before Memorial Day.  Its going to cripple the economy folks.  Part of the answer is to buy American only.

See my friend Moon’s take on this at Boycott OPEC gas.

Here are some large companies that DO NOT import Middle Eastern oil:

Sunoco………………….0 barrels
Conoco………………….0 barrels
Sinclair…………………0 barrels
BP/Phillips…………..0 barrels
Hess…………………….0 barrels
ARC0. …………………0 barrels
Also: Pilot, Flying J, Love’s, RaceTrac, Valero

Its costing me about $75 per week to keep both of our cars on the road.  I remember a few years ago (I think it was April 2004) when Moon and I discussed the prices of gasoline when it rose from $1.44 to $1.75 per gallon in a matter of one 4 day trip that I took. 

Change:  April 6, 2004 I was paying $1.77/gallon in NY.

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Its the liberals who are to blame for this looming recession.  It has to be!  Afterall, the liberals were the cause of the recession in 2003, too, right?

Oh cr@p!  Wait a second.

Job growth and payrolls are stagnating or going down.  Oil and energy prices are at record levels.  Its an election year and no one wants to repeat it, “Its the Economy StupPid!”  While clearly the war was brought to us on September 11th, and no one in his or her right mind (including those on the right) could or should claim that we shouldn’t have responded…we’ve gone from surplus to deficit.

The odds of a recession are increasing, but a few bright spots still suggest that the nation may avoid a shrinking economy, says Anthony Chan, the managing director and chief economist for JPMorgan Private Client Services.

For starters, he notes, the Federal Reserve has taken its jobs seriously and has been lowering rates frequently while also adding liquidity.

Oh sh!t!  What am I saying?  Nope!  It has to be!  Its Bill Clinton’s fault, of course.  He’s manipulating the situation so his wife can run on the platform of “Its the Economy StupPid!” 

We’ve gone from a near sprint to a stall, how did that happen?

However you slice it, a drop from 4.9 percent quarterly GDP growth to 0.6 percent is a bona fide cliff dive. There is now a very strong possibility that economic historians will say a recession began in December 2007, when consumer spending finally began to buckle, unable to stand any more pummeling by the housing bust.

Its plain and simple GREED ladies and gentlemen. GREED! Ask yourself why banks and lenders offered people sub-prime mortgages? It was to write the mortgages and spin the money. Why did people who couldn’t afford a $350,000 house, get to buy a house like that? GREED! They wanted a piece of the American Dream, but without actually working for it.

Very few people actually understand economics…most politicians don’t…and almost the entire population of the World, let alone this country (except of course, that guy “mvolpe1,2,3″ over at RCP who seems to have a huge fan club).  It monetary policy that led us to this point.  Believe it or not, it was a few slips of the tongue and perhaps a few mistakes by Greenspan that brought on the last recession that almost everyone in blogdom blamed on Clintonomics (surplus, Cold War dividend?).

Its the fucking liberals who caused this economic downturn.  Mark my words…the “libs” did it!

federal reserve policy, GDP, greed, Greenspan

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