StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Startling disclosure in an intercepted email from an imprisoned Ghanaian. The man is in prison for smuggling East Africans into the US, supposedly for economic reasons (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan). Officials are concerned that terrorists could use the same channels.

In the 12 months that ended last Sept. 30, U.S. officials caught 372 East Africans trying to get into the country, the assessment said. This is the most from these countries since the Homeland Security Department was formed in 2003. And 159 people from the same countries have been caught trying to enter since Oct. 1 - including 138 from Eritrea, far more than any other country in the Horn of Africa.

Apparently one illegal channel is closed, another is opened.

Mohammed Kamel Ibrahim, a 26-year-old Ghana citizen living in Mexico known as “Silk the Shocker,” wrote in an Oct. 24, 2006, e-mail to an associate that he would have no problem smuggling somebody into the United States.

“I will pay my immigration friend 2 days before he comes so that he can be waiting for him immediately he gets out of the flight. that way there is no questioning,” Ibrahim wrote in the same e-mail.

Its not just Mexicans. Preferred routes include:

East Africa ===> Johannesburg, South Africa ===> Sao Paulo, Brazil
East Africa ===> flew from Abu Dhabi, Dubai, or Rome to Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela

The smugglers have access to fake and real Belizean, Bolivian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian and South African visas.

Its not just Mexicans, now is it? Technology may be one way to help stop or slow this. However, Janice Kephart, former counsel to the Sept. 11 Commission said, “They do what they need to based on what their end goal is.”

East Africa, human smuggling, other than Mexicans

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There’s a plague outbreak among prairie dogs near Flagstaff Az.  So  a flea bites the dog, and then the flea bites a human.  That’s how the 1^st case of human plague since 2000 happened.  Its called Yersinia Pestis…its a zoonotic disease, like the ones being studied by the new National Bio Agro-Defense lab (see previous post, NBAF Update - Research Triangle Citizens Raise Questions - the people of North Carolina may not want it, the country needs it).

Anyway, it seems that the Arizona State Department of Health Services is concerned that the one case could signal a broader outbreak among humans, although the plague is usually confined to higher elevations (above 4500 feet).

“The recent appearance of plague activity in two northern counties has us concerned that we may see plague in other areas as well,” said Craig Levy of the health department.“We are beginning another cycle of plaguelike activity,” he added.Cases grow in isolated or small clusters, said Levy, who predicted the new cycle will focus on northern Arizona counties.There have been 48 cases of plague reported in Arizona during the past 30 years; eight of them resulted in death.

As a result, people are being warning to avoid contact with animal burrows and stay away from dead animals (not gonna see this “city boy” pokin’ around dead animals - besides that’s what the turkey vultures are for, aren’t they?).

 Symptoms include fever, chills, headache, weakness, muscle pain, and swollen lymph glands in the groin, armpits, or limbs. The disease can become septicemic, which means it spreads through the bloodstream.

Anyway, the doctors are treating the Apache County woman with antibiotics.  Yersinia Pestis is a vector borne disease  which is a disease in which the pathogenic microorganism is transmitted from an infected individual to another individual by an arthropod or other agent, sometimes with other animals serving as intermediary hosts.  See further information:

• Current Status of Vector-borne Diseases around the World;
• Environmental Parameters That Affect the Incidence of Vector-borne Diseases;
• Models That Predict Changes in the Incidence of Vector-borne Diseases Attributable to Climate Change;
• Possible Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Specific Vector-borne Diseases; and
• Programs for Surveillance, Treatment, and Control of Vector-borne Diseases.

This is what the CDC says about it.  More on plague from the CDC.  Additional plague facts.

Risk: Wild rodents in certain areas around the world are infected with plague. Outbreaks in people still occur in rural communities or in cities. They are usually associated with infected rats and rat fleas that live in the home. In the United States, the last urban plague epidemic occurred in Los Angeles in 1924-25. Since then, human plague in the United States has occurred as mostly scattered cases in rural areas (an average of 10 to 15 persons each year). Globally, the World Health Organization reports 1,000 to 3,000 cases of plague every year. In North America, plague is found in certain animals and their fleas from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains, and from southwestern Canada to Mexico. Most human cases in the United States occur in two regions: 1) northern New Mexico, northern Arizona, and southern Colorado; and 2) California, southern Oregon, and far western Nevada. Plague also exists in Africa, Asia, and South America (see map).

Wanna see what a flea looks like when its engorged with blood?  OK, take a look, thanks to the CDC.

Male Xenopsylla cheopis (oriental rat flea) engorged with blood. This flea is the primary vector of plague in most large plague epidemics in Asia, Africa, and South America. Both male and female fleas can transmit the infection.

So, please don’t think that there isn’t a need for a Lab to study animal borne or zoonotic diseases.

As usual, this post is cross posted on Real Clear Politics. National Bio Agro Defense Lab, NBAF, Yersinia Pestis, zoonotic disease

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This morning’s email from Stratfor had a questionnaire (and a subscription promotion) asking about the outlook for the coming months in Africa, Russia, Iraq and Pakistan.  Making predictions is easy.  Stating them publicly and standing by them is quite another.  FWIW, here are my topline answers.  The answers lie not so much in insight, but in objectivity…and clearly not in rose colored glasses.

My answers to these questions are marked.  Since most of these subjects have been covered here on this blog.  I will likely add some context during the day

Africa
The United States is banding all of its African military operations into a new, separate command called AFRICOM. While AFRICOM officially will help only states that request assistance and participate in counter-terrorism activities, a reorganized U.S. presence in Africa cannot help but attract attention — and foes.

Storm comment:  From Morocco and Algiers all the way to Somalia, al Qaeda and the Islamic jihad is spreading.  That is a documented fact.   The emergence of al Qaeda in Algeria with the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)–now known as “Al-Qaida’s Committee in the Islamic Maghreb” claiming responsibility for the bombings in Algiers as well as seeking to foment violence in neighboring Morocco was discussed in the Counterterrorism Blog in April.  Additional detail was provided in War on Terrorism: Missing the Obvious

Russia
Russia is in the midst of a leadership transition, even as opportunities to expand its international influence are greater than ever. The only question is how Moscow will contain its internal chaos while still taking advantage of the United States’ problems in Iraq. But then, that assumes that the chaos is not part of Moscow’s plan.

Storm comment:  The new Russian Premier,  Viktor Zubkov has pledged to further bolster the national defence industry and fight rampant corruption, as Parliament overwhelmingly endorsed his appointment.  This comes following the saber rattling and muscle flexing of Vladimir Putin.

Iraq
Gen. David Petraeus has made his recommendations to Congress on the conduct of the war, and the Bush administration has adopted them. There are now two theaters in this war: in Iraq, where jihadists will make every effort to disrupt the state, while the U.S. military attempts to carry out the same mission with fewer troops; and in Washington, where partisan politics will continue to create a battleground in the months leading up to the 2008 elections.

Storm comment:  With all due respect to General Petraeus, I remain skeptical that a unified and democratic Iraq will emerge from all of this fighting.  And I do believe that the U.S. will have a presence in Iraq for many years to come.

Pakistan
The government of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf is failing – and thus exposing all the ethnic, linguistic, ideological and geographic splits in a nuclear-armed state that plays host to al Qaeda. The nature of the Pakistani government, as well as the entire Afghan front in the war on terrorism, hangs in the balance.

Storm comment:  I believe that my post from yesterday says it all,  Musharraf’s a “Dead Man” (Maybe Literally)

At the end of 2006, I made my own Year-end observations — 2006.  Soon we will see. 

The answers lie not so much in insight, but in objectivity…not in rose colored glasses.

This post is cross posted on Real Clear Politics. To let others read it, please vote.

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