StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

It is not without reason that I state my longer term involvement in matters related to security, and continue to maintain my own.  In researching a subject for a new paper I am writing, I came across the following report in which a close associate of mine was involved (frankly, this also gives me a safe-keeping place to file the link to this document).  And no, I won’t go into greater detail.  The experts knew what to expect.  Neither Clinton nor Bush listened…and the story has yet to be played out.

WMD terrorism (state and non-state sponsored) against US citizens is a significant and increasing risk.
A. While the number of terrorist incidents is somewhat declining, the severity of individual attacks is dramatically increasing. This trend indicates the terrorist’s use of everincreasing bomb size or more deadly devices and weapons. Therefore, it seems likely that a future group will elect to use a biological weapon rather than an explosive device or a firearm. The most often cited reasons for the selection of a biological weapon are: 1) high lethality; 2) modest weapon size relative to its destructive potential; 3) relatively simple and rapid deployment; and 4) the capability of covert deployment. The special equipment needed is neither expensive nor difficult to obtain. Active live cultures are available naturally in the environment or can be ordered from a biological supply house. Often, the limiting factor is the necessity for technical knowledge in the field of microbiology.

B. The new terrorism is increasingly motivated by body count. There is a shift in the motivation behind terrorism from political issues, to those that are of a more fatalistic orientation–as is often the case in religious and/or ethnically motivated terrorism.3 The resulting shift in the goals and operations of the terrorist is having grave effects. Politically-motivated terrorism tends to limit the violence in order to avoid losing supporters’ sympathy or encouraging public demands for retaliation against the terrorist group. However, with nihilistic terrorism, often the goal is simply massive death and destruction of property. Indeed, we see that the goal of certain terrorists, such as Ramzi Yusef and Aum Shinrikyo, is to wage war on a society, as opposed to merely influencing society in a different direction.

C. Biological terrorism is uniquely worrisome. In spite of the over 100 signatories to the 1975 Bacteriological and Toxin Weapons Convention, proliferation of biological weapons continues unabated. These weapons are particularly difficult to monitor and regulate because it is difficult to differentiate between efforts to develop biological materials for rogue purposes, and those directed toward legitimate purposes, such as the production of vaccines. Furthermore, it is relatively simple to produce pathogens and toxins in small, easily concealed facilities. Finally, the materials and knowledge necessary to create and sustain a biological weapons program are both widely available around the world.

These words must not be minimized. They were written as a result of an escalating concern about WMD.

Biological weapons continue to be known as the “poor man’s atomic bomb” due to relatively low production costs and the potentially devastating effects of deployment. As the world’s only superpower, the US cannot be easily challenged through conventional military means. Therefore, logic dictates that adversaries will exploit US weaknesses, such as the unwillingness to tolerate casualties, through unconventional, or “asymmetric,” means. As expected, more nations are trying to acquire chemical and biological weapons than nuclear weapons.

There are other precursor documents like this one, and of course, the expanded full version of this book.  Remember that this report was published in May 1999.  The future is still before us.

COUNTERING BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM IN THE U.S.: AN UNDERSTANDING OF ISSUES AND STATUS, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, WMD