[*W.I.P.*: This is a starting point for a post that will be completed during the week as time permits]

Audacious or not, allow me to project to the future and offer some of my “crystalline balls” visions for the coming year.  A tumultuous year ended with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.  I believe that this illustrates the general point that ”we” do not understand our enemy, nor do we understand their tactics.  Thus, my theme for 2008 is that al Qaeda will re-emerge (OK, that’s too easy, since they didn’t create 2001-type havoc last year).

I am, no doubt, influenced by my near obsessive reading of the work of the “experts” in counterterrorism and world events (that is unavoidable), as I am by my own work (”day job”).  I also attempt to read original source policy material as it is available.  All of that, and history, tells me that the future is unpredictable.  Yet trends are readily apparent.  Generally, I sense a greater undercurrent of unrest around the World…the pressure seems to be building.  The “crystalline balls” tells me that we’re in for an unstable and upsetting year.  Hopefully, more brief than last year, then, the following will stand for judgment next year at this time.

Overall - The Enemy
The tactics of al Qaeda are evolving. All too many people fail to recognize the resiliency of this enemy. Many believe that al Qaeda is simply a band of camel jockeys hiding out in the mountains of Pakistan.  Others seem to discount al Qaeda and the rest of the jihadis as a group of “pedophile praying predators.” In fact, however, the al Qaeda core (often now referred to as al Qaeda 1.0) is an intelligent and manipulative bunch, hijacking the religion of Islam (please don’t expect me to repeat the all too often spouted lines of blanket hatred).  Looming is al Qaeda 2.0 and any of the other spin-offs or off-shoots or clones. 

It is all of these with which we deal…not just one, and not only until one of the heads (bin Laden) is killed or captured.  Losing sight of the Long War philosophy (as one or more of the current Presidential candidates has done) is to commit National Suicide.  One of the things that I missed a few years back in my debate over state sponsored terrorism and the amorphous terrorism of al Qaeda was the possibility that as time passed, locally independent terrorist organizations like Abu Sayyaf might move more closely to the core.  Thus, for all of the wrong reasons (meaning not necessarily religious ones), indigenous and independent terrorist orgainzations could well link themselves to al Qaeda, and thus change the dymanics of terrorism (state sponsored, al Qaeda, and independents joining).  While it is true that the jihad has lost some of its cohesiveness, at the same time, this is one of the things that people watching misread…the jihad does not require a structure to succeed.

Others have written this, and I am left to agree…the assassination of Benazir Bhutto may mark a shift in tactics.  If political assassination combined with suicide bombs are to become a new weapon of these folks, we’re in for an interesting transition in this War on Terrorism.  It is clear that al Qaeda recognizes the impact on World affairs when a country’s leader is attacked.  While Bhutto was more current victim, I find it astounding that Hamid Karzai is still alive…the same, frankly, holds for Perez Musharraf (I had him dead and buried a couple of times in 2007 - they missed).  The natural disruption of attacking a national leader is as effective a tool of terrorism as blowing up a train…in fact, maybe even moreso.

Domestic
I question the resolve of the American people, and fear that we have returned to a pre-September 11th complacency (this is not a statement of Republican versus Democrat or liberal versus conservative, but a generalized observation). While that alone does not bode well for this country, or for the World, the fact that most people do not feel threatened is a concern. This is largely attributable to the fact that nothing (much) has happened here, and at the same time, many feel “put out” by the extra security measures in place at our airports.

It is unreasonable for the general populace to sense danger when all they see is inconvenience at home and the violence occurs somewhere else. When I travel, I still see people objecting to having bottled water or nail clippers confiscated as they pass through security. In addition to often see lax airport security, I also see (actually have read) of the sloppiness at our border check points.  Add to that the difficulties in launching secure identification programs (okay, I am well aware of the systems and programs that are in place, but the fall short of the ideal measures that were initially recommended).  We lack secure personal identity documents.

Whether or not the Democrats or the Republicans enter the White House a little over a year from now, events will unfold that will require action.  Thus, despite all of the rantings from “certain corners,” America will need to be defended.  I think that it is unreasonable to believe that we will remain unscathed by terrorism in this country.  Global terrorism is just that, global, and whether it is 2008 or later, it will likely hit us.

● If, as we believe, that there are “sleeper cells” already in place in the U.S., then a “Bhutto-like” attack on an American political figure is not out of the realm of possibility.

● We talk about it, and yet the politicians (both sides) abandon programs.  In 2007, port security and security at our Nation’s chemical and nuclear facilities was questioned, and breached.  An attack on critical infrastructure is not out of the question…our ports remain unsecure to the levels truly required.

● When you combine constant flow of illegal immigrants over and across the U.S.-Mexican border with the belief that terrorism is festering in Central and South America, it is not hard to see that the Mexican border will remain a key conduit for terrorism and terrorists entering the country.  I, for one, believe that “they” are here already, and walk among us freely.

One other point of importance is that the War in Iraq, regardless of its motives or justifications has replaced the War on Terrorism in many citizens’ minds.  It has also been lumped together with the War on Terrorism, perhaps largely because the President made it clear that fighting in Iraq was an important battlefield against terrorism.  I continue to believe that the removal of the Hussein family from power in Iraq was an inevitable step…whether the timing of the invasion (or the initial rational - WMD) was appropriate is now not at all relevant (see discussion of Iraq below).

North America
The porous Canadian border has been a concern since Y2K. That we haven’t experienced an attack through that path is surprising. Yet, back in 2002, we had the case of the Lackawana Six. Did you know that one of the terrorism suspects, Yahya Goba has his sentence reduced by a year (he’ll be out in 2010) because of his cooperation, and for his testimony in the Jose Padilla case?

Watch the infrastructure…power plants, water pumping stations and the like.  Watch for more discoveries of illegal immigrants in “sensitive jobs” as we saw this year at a few military installations.  And most importantly, keep your eyes on the ports.  I still believe that the reported “dirty bomb” plot in NY City, and the response of the NY City ER people was seen as a test run by the “bad guys.”  While I do not believe the Internet or talk radio chatter that the Democrats will, in one swoop, reverse years of heightened security, I do fear that any relaxation of regulations or controls or restrictions (read that as the Patriot Act) can and will only lead to a tragic end.

Mexico represents a serious challenge to American National security.  Make no mistake about it, the drug wars between the cartels is an accelerating problem.  Regardless of what Mexican President Calderone does with the federales, the cartels have considerably more resources and resolve.

Central and South America
Among the many issues facing the World in Central and South America lies in Nicaragua (Daniel Ortega and Ahmadinejad). The prospect of Iran having a beach head in Central America from which to launch an attack via Hezbollah is serious.

Another of the impending crisis points is in Venezuela…no, not just that Chavez is an asshole, greasy monkey. The continuing hostage drama with the FARC in neighboring Columbia could become a flashpoint in 2008…maybe soon.

Africa
The list includes Algeria, Morocco, Sudan (where an American diplomat was killed on New Years Eve), Somalia (the ICU - also see Ethiopia), Kenya (where the recent election has given rise to riots - and where Muslims constitute a sizable minority and include both Sunni and Shi’ites), Ethiopia (see Somalia), Mauritania. I’m sure I’ve missed one or two other African hotspots. There is a reason for the U.S. establishing the African Command.

Europe
More to come later, but I believe that the demographic trends in Europe as a whole could make 2008 the year in which a Muslim Europe begin to unfold. In parallel, this will lead to greater unrest and possibly increased violence. As the fundamentalist movement takes hold in certina European countries like Denmark and France, the chances of terrorism increaes dramatically.

Russia
At one point, we were all worried about the misplaced Russian nuclear material and the possibilty that it could be used as the “dirt” in a “dirty bomb.” In the year 2007, we also witnessed a mystery of the radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko…while Putin was “implicated” by Litvinenko’s dying words, no proof emerged. And yet, Vladimir Putin has now emerged as the new Russian bear. Earlier in 2007 I wrote of the coming of the new or second Cold War…it is here! With Russian supplying HEU to Iran for its soon to be activated reactor, Russia is once again emerging as a World power…doubt that? Watch as 2008 brings a new Russian-US confrontation.  Finally, one cannot look at Russia and the futur without considering the Chechyn situation…brewing for more than a decade now.  Muslim uprising in Chechnya is always a possibility.  Given Russia’s new Bear, however, I have to believe that an uprising will result in significant bloodshed.

The Pacific
Philippines and Bali, Indonesia.

Now for the BIG ONES: I believe that “we” have miserably missed the mark in understanding the cultural backdrop in which our military now fights this War on Terrorism. This is shown in the way in which Pakistan and Afganistan have devolved as the Taliban/al Qaeda have become reinvigorated. The Bhutto assassintation and the recently announced delays in the January elections all lead to continuing and potentially broadening unrest and violence. The possibility of al Qaeda or the Taliban (or some other clone of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement) gaining control in Pakistan, and its nuclear stores, offers enough of a nightmare scenario for anyone…our next President will be dealing with this one for years.  Further, despite “patriotic” arguments to the contrary, I do not believe that we can superimpose democratic ideals upon an unwilling populace or on a society in which the very concepts of freedom (as defined by Western culture) are foreign, without great stress and a high degree of risk.

In Afghanistan, I still see Karzai losing control (if not his life) as the warlords re-exert their influence. Karzai’s willingness to appease the Taliban (as did Musharraf) can only lead to problems for the U.S.  Added January 6 - If you want an example of where Karzai’s future is dimming, its important to place the recent announcement that Afghan Clerics Warn Karzai Against Missionaries as an indicator.

Afghanistan’s Islamic council has told President Hamid Karzai to stop foreign aid groups from converting local people to Christianity and has demanded the reintroduction of public executions…The council said it was concerned about the activities of some “missionary and atheistic” groups, saying that the actions were “against Islamic Shariah, the Constitution, and political stability,” according to a copy of the statement. “If not prevented, God forbid, catastrophe will emerge, which will not only destabilize the country, but the region and the world.”

I see the pressures mounting on Karzai from a number of different directions.

Israel - Inevitably, there will be another Holyland War.  Whether it occurs this year or later depends upon the questions of how threatened Israel feels by its Arab neighbors, and by the level of influence that bin Laden’s most recent missive may have. Ahmadinejad’s use of brinkmanship aside, I don’t think that Iran will attack Israel (“boy is that a thin limb fo rme to hang from”)

Saudi Arabia - How long does anyone think that the Saudis can escape from the impact of terrorism?

Turkey - As expected last year, Turkey will not sit idly by as Iraqi Kurds seek more freedom, or control over the oil, or worse (in their minds), total independence.

STRATEGIES AND TACTICS: In this section, I will offer some non-professional (as I am not employed by the government) advice about things that we should do to combat terrorism.

Also refer to:
Odds and Ends at Year’s End, Doug Farah
2007: A Global Assessment of the Confrontation, Walid Phares

[*W.I.P.*]: This is clearly a work in progress that will be eventually completed over the next few days.. At that time, I’ll close the post and date it.

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