StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Regurgitating the news is one thing, offering predictions and insights, or analyzing events as they unfold is another.  But public record provides my  Year-End Observations for 2006.  This post reviews (and “self-grades”) those predictions.  In the next post, I will look ahead to 2008.  History has a funny way of unfolding before your eyes.  This gives me (and my readers) a gauge of whether my insights mean anything, or, if on balance, how full of shit I am.

Preface (from last year’s post): Blogdom has created many “instant experts in counterterrorism.”  Some know more than others.  My interest and involvement in terrorism and counter-X (including counter-narcotics) originated back to the middle 1990’s…it didn’t begin the morning of September 11^th. Alas, while I am somewhat of an expert in my field that falls within the realm of homeland security, and I am an avid reader of original source documents relating to terrorism and security, and I am what some people would call a “policy wonk” when it comes to Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, but of course, I am not really an expert in counterterrorism (nor do I purport to be one). So, you should take what I write with a grain of salt…and I will also add (as some people have read before), I write Storm Blog anonymously for a few very good and personal reasons.  Among those are that many of my business relationships could be compromised by the opinions expressed here.  Also, I write under my real name elsewhere, and do not wish to have that situation compromised either).

Last year, I started my predictions by quoting from Doug Farah’s year-end blog from 2006:

The primary lesson I take away from 2006 is that we often do not believe what we see in front of us, to our own detriment and danger.

So let us start by reviewing the situation as I viewed it last December 30th (with my reflected comments shown highlighted following each):

1. The spread of global terrorism – I believe that we have yet to grasp the nature of the enemy. In fact, I believe that largely, we do not really know our enemy at all. Partially, that is because we continue to approach this Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) more in a conventional way than in what I see it to be. The GWOT is as much a battle of societies and sociology as it is a battle between suicide bombers or insurgents and those who seek to stop their attacks with guns and tanks. This is also less about nation states sponsoring terrorism than it is the transformation to terrorism of disenchanted, disadvantaged individuals who seek answers to their plights through the social structure that is available to them. Not that much unlike gang mentality, men and women are attracted to jihadist or terrorist groups (cells) by a desire for social bonding. The stated hatred for the West and America (and therefore Israel) becomes the byproduct of adopting the jihadist, fundamentalist Islamic ways…[edited]. What this means is that no single terrorist is now essential to the jihad…its the system, not the organization. However, the “parent company” of al Qaeda, as contrasted with the al Qaeda clones, will remain a force behind the spread of terrorism.

As a result, I can see no immediate end to the spread of Islamic, al Qaeda style jihadist terrorism. Already we have indigenous or nearly indigenous systems of jihadist terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq, and some, despite current proclamations of the pushing back of the ICU, soon in Somalia…[edited]

What is clear is that terrorism has continued to spread unrelentedly. What is also clear is that my statement of al Qaeda (parent company or now referred to al Qaeda 1.0) remains a force, while al Qaeda clones (al Qaeda 2.0) continue to wreck havoc. Also, the recruitment of new jihadists continues. Further, one of the new developments has been the move of the jihad to within the prison system here in the U.S. to recruit new homegrown terrorists. I contend that many will continue to make the mistake of damning all Muslims (and thus all of Islam) for the continuing spread of the jihad. These “many” have a great difficulty differentiating between political and religious Islam. Unfortunately, this misconception will continue to cause distrust and unrest in the U.S. and in the World. Frankly, you cannot read most conservative websites or blogs and read about the distinction.  To this “observation” I give myself an “A” even though some of this should have been obvious.

2. The Middle East and its affect on Global instability (the 3 “I’s”) –
Israel: Nothing has been settled in the Middle East. Israel continues to be a target of various terrorist organizations ranging from Hamas and Hezbollah to Fatah and al Aksa Martyrs. But beyond that, the Palestinian State as it is, remains unviable. As long as that continues, there is no hope for a peaceful settlement in Israel.

While visible terrorism has been somewhat lessened during 2007, the fact remains that pressure from Hamas and Hezbollah to Fatah and al Aksa Martyrs continues. The Annapolis conference was worthless in the context of bring peace to the region, IMO. Agin, perhaps obvious to the astute reader, but nonetheless, on point. Another “A” I do not deserve. There will be no peace in the Middle East so long as Israel exists. And it will, unless…“B” 

Iraq: Today’s execution of Hussein in Iraq, for all of his crimes against humanity, will not end the violence there. In fact, after a lull, perhaps because of the Muslim holiday of Eid, it is likely that another upsurge in violence will occur. Just how long the experiment in democracy in Iraq can last before full scale sectarian conflict erupts remains one of the key questions. Frankly, I believe that this is one of the most underestimated elements of the War in Iraq, and therefore one of the most likely sources of violence in the months ahead. Also as discussed by Evan Kohlmann in his “State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006″

Here is the link to Evan’s blog and the discussion of the Iraq Insurgency.
The influence of al Qaeda in Iraq has expanded, not contracted, since the death of Zarqawi in June 2006. The consolidation of Sunni groups under the al Qaeda influence and banner. The future impact of this cannot be calculated in my opinion. AQI will continue to be an issue to be dealt with.

I stand, perhaps alone among many, believing that the effort to install a “democratic” government in corruption riddled and strife torn Iraq remains an elusive if not unachievable goal. This story has not seen the last chapter written, and may not even during 2008. But AQI is not dead and gone (just as in Afghanistan – below- the Taliban is not dead and gone). We mistake a lull in activity for victory.

It appears that stability is close to hand in Iraq than I thought. The surge has “worked” and violence is down. Whether or not the Iraqis can provide their own security, I believe was shown by their asking for the U.S. to remain in-country to provide just that, security. The sectarian and religious violence has abated somewhat, but continues. AQI is not dead. I grant myself a “B.”

Iran: How will Iran turn out? The year 2007 will give us answers about how deranged Ahmadinejad really is, or whether, like many leader like him, there is a driven substance to his madness. Are they, or will Iran go nuclear in 2007? The nuclear issue in Iran will certainly be raised this year. We can only pray that Iran’s threats do not happen, ever. But there is absolutely no reason to expect that 2007 will be a year in which nation state sponsored terrorism will cease. Is there a possibility of conflict? Could be…lots of sabre-rattling already. I hope that there won’t be another U.S. military front opened in Iran, but who really knows?

Iran in fact did go nuclear in 2007 (or at least threaten to do so). At the same time, the contradictory NIE makes “gaming” the situation in Iran very difficult. The wild card in Iran became Russia’s assistance in building and feeding the reactors, something that occurred only late in the year. An apparently brokered cessation of sponsorship of the insurgency in Iraq was unexpected. I grant myself a “C+.” 

3. Global Instability– We do not live in a safe world.
Lebanon and Syria: Syria’s intentions have yet to be fully revealed. Their support of terrorism is known. What their intentions are relative to weaponry (especially the possibility of nuclear or chemical/biological weapons) remains speculative. And it remains to be proven or disproven whether Syria is a bigger player via Hussein’s weapons. The pieces of the Middle Eastern chessboard are complex.

Syria is a seriously flawed country and situation. The possibility that Syria and not Iran is the country harboring nuclear weapons intentions (again, late in the year), is problematic. As a Ba’athist regime, Syria continues to represent a threat to regional stability both as a sponsor of terrorism (Hezbollah) and as a direct aggressor. Lebanon remains unstable. I grant myself a “B.”

The Philippines: Despite the recent death of the leader of Abu Sayyaff (“Abu Sayyaf Chieftain Khadaffy Janjalani Reported Killed”) to think that the years’ long conflict in the Philippines will stop would be naïve. I look for an expansion of Abu Sayyaf related terrorist attacks and a closer linkage with the global terorrist movement.

Abu Sayyaf remains a major threat to stability in the region, and they have in fact, become a close clone of al Qaeda. . I grant myself a “B.”

Afghanistan: I continue to find it a bit mind blowing to believe that in some quarters people believe that Afghanistan is stable and that the Taliban is out of the picture. Today I believe that I read one article in which Karzai pleaded with the people to stop supporting the foreigners (“strangers”) who were fighting with the Taliban. Karzai will have a tough time staying alive, let alone stay in control of this fragile balance between peace and a re-Talibanization. The Taliban are not “dead” as NATO boy once insisted. I wonder how far their resurgence will carry them.
AFGHANISTAN: Karzai vs. the Warlords
Afghan leader urges end to Taliban insurgency

Unfortunately, Afghanistan, I believe, remains on the brink. Afterall, how long can appeasement work?  The White House, in fact, has admitted that much has gone wrong and that many of the strategies and goals remain to be accomplished. Clearly the Taliban are back, despite the many of them who have been killed. Their recruitment continues. I grant myself an “A.”

Myanmar (Burma): This is another area of instability, and even with the recent death of the leader of the insurgency, Bo Mya, continuing violence and unrest should be expected. Can it spread to the rest of the region? Of course! Myanmar borders Thailand where Islamic stresses continue.

Thailand: The south of Thailand continues to be an area of violence and growing Muslim influence. As written, “Three killed in Thailand’s restive south” Drive-by shootings and bombings occur almost daily in Thailand’s three southernmost Muslim-majority provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani, where an Islamic insurgency that flared in January 2004 has killed more than 1,900 people. Why should we expect this violence to stop?

Myanmar became a center of World attention for a period while the priests mounted a counter-campaign. It has faded from the news, but that, in itself, does not mean anything. Thailand was relatively quiet, although the Islamic rebellion in the south of the country remains. In combination, I grant myself a “B.”

4. The Internet and terrorism – It has been well documented that the jihad is being spread through the Internet. What is often not discussed is that through the Internet and through access to global media (television especially), the ways of the West are brought to those who become the new terrorists. This is something that we cannot stop. It is simply something that needs to be understood and considered.

Clearly, the use of the Internet both as a tool for training and simulation, as well as a tool of aggression through cyber-terrorism became well publicized in 2007. I grant myself an “A.”

5. Secure Identification Documents – In a way, IMO, the term “secure document” is a non-sequitor. Certainly, the federal government would argue that the Transportation Workers Identification Card or the Common Access Credential both represent secure documents. As time passes, perhaps with all of the regulations (HSPD 12 and FIPS 201 for example), these will prove out. But how about the electronic passport (e-passport)? Is it secure? If you believe the numerous and increasing reports about the RFID chips embedded in such secure documents being cloned, then you’ve got to wonder if they are truly secure. Thus, I believe that the recent upsurge in identity theft and the relationship of forged and counterfeit documents to illegal immigration will continue. I’d watch for additional disclosures of phony documents to play a role in the events of 2007.

While progress is being made toward implementing the government forms of secure ID, much work remains to be accomplished in providing fool proof and secure identification for our citizens and travelers. Other than the revelations of security breaches like the TJ Max debacle, there was not much publicity about the role of phony documents in terrorism. I grant myself a  “B-.”

6. Border (In)security – This blog has had many posts during the past year on our insecure border with Mexico, and the impact of illegal immigration. Not the Democrats and not the Republicans can stop this. IMO, building a wall, whether virtual or physical, is only a small measure. Unfortunately, the Border Patrol and ICE are not capable of performing the National Security roles needed to protect US citizens from terrorists or drug lords flowing across the Southern border with Mexico. It may be time for militarizing the border. There! I said it. Perhaps we need to go beyond sending National Guard to the border as was done in Arizona. Yes, suspend the Posse Comitatus Act.

Here is a link to a very good article from the Journal of Homeland Security, “The Myth of Posse Comitatus.” 

The security of our northern and southern borders remains problematic. The flow of illegal immigrants across our border with Mexico is often and well documented. Only because it is so obvious, I grant myself a “B.”

7. The continuing merging of the War on Terrorism and the War on Drugs - While this is related to the issue of border security, I see the intertwining of drugs and terrorism to continue in the New Year. Why is this important? Not only do illegal narcotics represent a serious threat to our Nation, but the illicit drug trade also presents opportunities for terrorist funding. There is an unquestionable linkage (at least in my mind) between terrorism and illegal narcotics, and that connection is very dangerous.

There should be no question of the cross-over of counter-drugs and counter-terrorism. Further, the impact of the narco-wars on the Mexican side of the border are clear. Unfortunately, I must grant myself an “A” here.

8. Attacks – I have no crystal ball and while we can all pray that nothing like September 11th 2001 (New York, Washington DC) or July 7th 2005 (London) or March 7th 2004 (Madrid) or October 1st 2005 (Bali) ever repeats it would be naïve to believe that another major attack will not occur. It has been pretty quiet lately. It is unrealistic to expect this quiet to continue for much longer. Whether or not we in this country have become too complacent, and whether that attack will occur on our soil is beyond my speculation. Watch the Pacific Rim and South Asia.

The attacks have been sporadic and less spectacular. None have occurred in the United States, although there have been documented attempts (JFK Plot for example). If it is proven that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was an attack of al Qaeda (as suspected), then, as others have also stated, this shift in tactics could be a very serious development in the future. I must grant myself a“B” here.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
a. The “next” terrorist attack, wherever it occurs, will be unconventional. The most likely form is a radiological weapon or dirty bomb. We can only hope that it is limited in scope (my guess is South Asia). Another anthrax type attack is not beyond imagination.

Wrong. Didn’t happen (thankfully), although the likelihood of a future event remains high.. Grade: “D.”

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
b. Terrorism and the growth of Islamic, fundamentalist jihadism will occur in the Western Hemisphere:
· There will be further and growing social and political instability in Mexico
· Hugo Chavez’ influence in South America will expand as he continues to provide financing for insurgency activities (and watch for his involvement outside of SA).
· The Tri-border region of South America will once again be on our radar screen…Tri-border transfers ‘funding terror’
The tri-border area, where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina meet, is a lawless region where drugs trafficking, gun running and counterfeit goods are rife. The BBC has now found documents showing the suspicious transfer of large sums of money to the Middle East, which investigators believe goes to fund terrorism.

I think that the essential elements for terrorism emerging in the Western Hemisphere are there. Mexico is a serious problem in my opinion. Chavez continues to stir the pot. The recent disclosure of Iran’s “playing footsie” with Ortega in Nicaragua in something to be watch closely. Not much of note was public about activities in the Tri-Border region. On balance, I grant myself “B” here.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
c. Karzai’s government in Afghanistan will succumb to increasing pressures from the previously “defunct” but resurrected Taliban. To a degree, this will be a result of Pakistan’s willingness to negotiate and make concessions with the Taliban. Watch Pakistan closely and we’ll see how stable even the Musharraf regime is at the end of 2007 (after all, Musharraf took power in a coup). Since the border between these two countries is arbitrary, I’d expect the influence of the Taliban to expand on both sides. On the extreme end, I wonder if one or both will still be alive.

Karzai is still in power (somehow), despite the fact that the Taliban have been resurrected. Poppy cultivation is at record levels. The question of how long he will remain in power (or even alive) is now even more important given the assassination of Bhutto last week. The instability of Pakistan, even before the Bhutto “martyrdom” was evident. No one could have predicted Musharraf calling for a suspension of rights and the institution of martial law. Clearly, the Taliban (al Qaeda) has re-exerted its power on both sides of the border. I grant myself “B” here, although it could be argued that a higher grade is warranted.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
d. The Iraqi conflict will expand, leading to a separatist movement by Kurdistan. This will both inflame the Shi’a and Sunni segments of the Iraqi Government, but also enrage Turkey. I simply cannot see Turkey standing by and watching the emergence of democracy in Kurdistan idly.

Kurdistan is not quite a reality at this moment, but Turkey is certainly flexing is power. I’ve read that some people believe that Turkey will soon become a fundamentalist Islamic state. I’m not so sure of this, but clearly, Turkey’s influence in current and future events is likely to be strong. I grant myself “A” here.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
e. Despite the recent successes of Ethiopia in “routing” the ICU in Somalia, Somalia will become the next battleground in the Global War on Terror. This will hasten the U.S. military establishing the Africa Command, which will be brought into the fighting, opening a potential third battlefront.

The Africa Command is a reality. Somalia remains on the edge. Other parts of Africa are beginning to boil over. The “prediction” was a but premature. I grant myself “B” here.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
f. Continued terrorists attacks in India and the skirmishes between India and Pakistan on their border will continue to flare-up, leading to a nuclear showdown. The Pakistani-Indian nuclear stand-off could well accelerate.

The nuclear showdown has not occurred. Kashmir remains a major element of contention between these two countries. The escalation of the nuclear race between the two is evident in recent events. I grant myself “B+” here.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
g. Putin and Russia will move further away from its friendly position with the West and with the U.S. Putin is dangerous, even if “trusted” by GW (question: Russian democracy?). The fall-out from the Litvinenko murder by Polonium 210 is still unresolved, and probably will be the most blogged and unsolved “about” during 2006. IMO, the only way that it is an important event is if it is shown that it was smuggling operation gone bad and that Polonium 210 could be used in a dirty bomb. Otherwise, despite the attention paid to it here and elsewhere, it was a “Grade B” spy movie.

This is no longer a case of if, but a question of when, IMO. Putin has re-exerted his power. While the Litvinekno saga has faded from the headlines, the fact remains that Putin is now in line to become a new dictator. Often in 2006/2007, I wrote about the coming of the next Cold War. With Russia now supplying HEU to Iran, it is closer to being. I grant myself “B+” here, if only because I didn’t see a Russian-Iranian connection brewing.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
h. Despite all of the other rhetoric, the Democrats will have little choice but to maintain the stance of the Global War on Terrorism, even if open debate and budget battles create uproars within the conservative communities.

No real proof either way, although the efforts to de-fund the War in Iraq and Afghanistan argue that I missed this one. The Democrats are more stupid than I thought (although, as I’ve recently written, it doesn’t really seem to me that any candidate for either party truly understand the nature of this War, or the nature of the enemy. I grant myself a “C” here.

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
i. Senator Clinton will not run for President (I’m still not even sure that she will win the Democratic nomination, but this is still over a year away). But don’t look for Al Gore to try to run again. Neither will John Kerry.

Too early to tell regarding Hillary and the Democratic nomination. If she is the nomineee, I simply do not see her winning (as long as the Republicans run a decent candidate (bucking the apparent trend, that means neither Rudy nor Fred. I grant myself an “incomplete.”

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
j. Dick Cheney will not serve out the remainder of the term.

Too early to tell regarding VP Cheney, but I suspect that as long his health holds, so will he. I was wrong so I grant myself a “C-.”

9. Wild Ass Guesses –
k. Very little of substance will be accomplished in the next Congress that starts on January 4, 2007.

True, quite true., but was probably obvious, so I get a “B.”

You are all free to question my self-grading.  Weighting #1-8 as three times more important than the wild ass guesses of #9, it comes out to a B⁺.

year end 2006 predictions Sphere: Related Content

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Sad.  Its just another job that no American (or Texan) is capable of doing!  The Dallas Morning News has declared that the illegal immigrant is the Texas Man of the Year.  IMO, even Governor Rick Perry is more worthy; frankly, so is Kinky Friedman is more worthy.  Shame and sadness falls upon the great State of Texas for willingly succumbing, and “tossing in the taco.”

He breaks the law by his very presence. He hustles to do hard work many Americans won’t, at least not at the low wages he accepts. The American consumer economy depends on him. America as we have known it for generations may not survive him. We can’t seem to live with him and his family, and if we can live without him, nobody’s figured out how.

I can’t believe this.

●  Texas’ immigrant population has increased by nearly 33 percent since 2000, according to an analysis of government data by the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies.

●  Half the immigrants in Texas — about 7 percent of all Texans — are here illegally.

●  Texas’ immigrant population has jumped a whopping 32.7 percent since 2000

The myth of the “job American’s won’t do.”

“There is no such thing as a job that natives won’t do,” Dr. Borjas, an immigrant from Cuba, wrote last year. “Instead, there are jobs that natives aren’t willing to do at the going wage.”

The state comptroller’s office had a different take on Texas, reporting in 2005 that illegal immigrants provided a net economic boost of nearly $18 billion that year. While the state government took in more taxes from illegal immigrants than it paid out in services for them, the comptroller said, the opposite was true for Texas’ local governments.

Is this still the United States?

The importance of immigrant labor to Texas was underscored this year with formation of a new political alliance – big business and the Legislature’s Mexican-American caucus. They threatened to cripple the lawmaking machinery if legislative leaders allowed a slate of “anti-immigrant” bills to advance. The tactic worked.

And so it goes…[I'll add more to this later when I have finished some other work].

illegal immigration, Texas Man of the Year Sphere: Related Content

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For a moment, I’m stepping away from World events to make a comment about the Alamo Bowl between Penn State (24) and Texas A&M (17), and the horrendous “cheer” called by one A&M yell leader, who, during a pep rally Thursday night, told the crowd that Paterno is “on his death bed” and “someone needs to find him a casket.”

Joe Paterno is a gentleman of the “old school” all the way (sort of like Louie Carnesecca, the old St. John’s Redmen Basketball Coach, only different).  Of the inappropriate “cheer,” Paterno commented:

“I think everybody has to take things with a grain of salt,” Paterno said. “Some young guy went up there, trying to be funny. Maybe he’s accurate, I don’t know. I honestly didn’t hear it, and I don’t particularly care about it. Sticks and stones will break your bones but names will never hurt you.”

In my opinion, the kid should publicly apologize to Paterno (the fact that A&M has apologized in my opinion is far from being enough)…the kid should also sit by the side of his grandfather (if he still has one) and give him a big hug, because if he is lucky enough to have a living grandparent…well, I think that the kid should never be allowed to live what he said down (and maybe in this Internet/You Tube era he won’t).

However, to me, aside from the fact that Penn State beat Texas A&M in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio last night, the most memorable moment came during the pre-game press conference (actually held a the same time as the pep rally). The banter between Paterno and his old friend, Ray Saul, the former sports editor of the Hazleton Standard Speaker was priceless and classic Paterno.  Saul, asking a question about Paterno’s longevity:

“Joe, I have six weeks on you, I’m six weeks older than you,” Saul began.

“I know you are, Ray,” Paterno responded.

“My girlfriend said, ‘You [meaning Paterno] can still do it … you’re in great shape, you can still do it,’” Saul continued.

“I think you can still do it. You have been doing it, and you will continue to do it.”

“What are you talking about doing?” Paterno cracked, as the press corps erupted.

“Holy smokes, I’m not Hugh Hefner, you know.”

The game? Penn State beat Texas A&M 24-17. The game was Paterno’s 500th, and the victory was his 23rd win in 34 bowl games.  As for the cheerleader?  In my opinion, he’s gotten off too easily.  He should be spanked.

Alamo Bowl, Hazleton Standard Speaker, Joe Paterno, Penn State, Ray Saul, San Antonio, Texas A&M Sphere: Related Content

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This is a very early post. But you may be interested in reviewing my previous posts regarding Benazir Bhutto. Thank you.

After Benazir, who?  If emotions can rise higher than they already are, watch Pakistan as Bilawal Bhutto stands, possibly ready to replace his assassinated mother as the leader of the PPP.  Only 19 years old, this scion of arguably Pakistan’s most influential family, a student at Oxford, could rally the support of the Party.  What happens next, only history will tell.

A Pakistani television news channel also carried reports that Bilawal will be made the new leader, which the channel said accorded with Benazir Bhutto’s wishes. If confirmed, the teenager will become the third leader of the 40-year-old center-left party, one of Pakistan’s most powerful. Bilawal will follow his grandfather, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who founded the PPP in 1967, led Pakistan as Prime Minister for four years in the mid 1970s and was hanged in 1979 by a military government, and Benazir, who took over from her father and was killed in a shooting and suicide bomb attack two days ago.

Quick background on Bilawal here.  According to All Things Pakistan, this is likely to happen.

The news is that Benazir Bhutto’s son, 19-year old Bilawal Zardari (now a student at Oxford Univeristy), has been named the new PPP Chairperson to succeed his mother - and before that his grandmother and grandfather.

While there were other possibilities, including his father, a sister and an aunt and who knows how many other Bhutto’s there may be, this may still become an emerging and another changing story.

Let’s look at all the other contenders one-by-one:

Makhdoom Fahim: Led the party in Benazir’s absence from the country from 1999 to October 2007. A Benazir loyalist, Fahim is the quintessential party man, who never wavered in his loyalties towards his leader in all these years. Has a good shot at the leadership. Was in the same vehicle as Benazir at the time she was assassinated.

Aitazaz Ahsan: Possibly the most popular PPP leader in the country, he is one of Pakistan’s leading lawyers. Currently in detention. Ahsan is from the Punjab and won the hearts and minds of ordinary Pakistanis during the time he represented “suspended” Chief Justice Ifthekar Muhammad Chaudhry. Ahsan is a good speaker and was leader of the opposition in the Pakistani parliament. Was not allowed to attend Benazir’s funeral in Garhi Khuda Baksh by the military regime despite asking for permission. His Punjabi lineage can only help the PPP garner votes in the most important province of Punjab.

Sanam Bhutto: The only surviving sibling of Benazir, Sanam has shown extreme reluctance to take to the path of politics. There have been previous occasions when her name was mentioned as possible leader of the party, especially when Benazir chose to go into self-exile in 1999 after being pushed to the corner in corruption cases.

Asif Ali Zardari: Benazir’s husband has been a minister in the previous PPP government and is regarded by many analysts as a possible successor. However, it’s possible that he might not like to take on the leadership mantle directly, but rule through a weak proxy.

I suspect that the chances of this happening are pretty good…more background here.

All Things Pakistan, Bilawal Bhutto Sphere: Related Content

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Three reasons for this repost.  First, with Bhutto Gone the dynamics of Pakistani politics become greatly complicated.  Second, I heard my least favorite candidate (Rudy) make a wild ass assertion about the impact of getting rid of bin Laden.  Third, there is an assertion circulating that bin Laden was murdered.  Additionally, al Qaeda remains a factor on the World stage.

One of the best analyses that I have seen anywhere of the impact of the Bhutto assassination is in the Front Page article (interview), With Bhutto Gone.  The final statement:

History can tell us many things. But what it cannot tell us is often more troubling. We are now in uncharted waters with an increasingly unstable nuclear power while a bloodthirsty international terrorist organization thrives within its borders. Not even the fall and breakup of the Soviet Union can compare in potential perils.

The coming week is critical, and all events in Pakistan warrant the closest attention.

There are so many misconceptions running in the public about al Qaeda, its origins and its future that it is scary.  Earlier this afternoon a nice lady in my office commented how it would “all be better if the British re-occupied Pakistan like it did before al Qaeda.“  That statement shows an enormous lack of historic perspective (as I wrote, she’s a very nice lady, but that doesn’t make her smart or savvy - some of the least informed bloggers are more informed than much of the public)…but I am certain that this and similar misconceptions exist.  When I told her that al Qaeda came about as a result of the Russian-Afghan war and that it is said to have been started in 1988 (although bin Laden was an active Muslim holy warrior as early as 1979 at the onset of the war), she commented that she didn’t know I “knew so much about history.“  Frankly, I don’t believe she represents a minority of the population.

As for “sir” Rudy (who appears to think that he has already been anointed - he also looked very tired)…he was being interviewed this evening when I heard him claim that the beheading of al Qaeda by the killing or capture of bin Laden would reap many benefits to us (the United States).  While I do not doubt that Rudy, among all candidates wants to see bin Laden erased, his overt statement shows an utter lack of understanding, IMO of course, of the Global implications of the al Qaeda jihad, its organization, and the absolute fact that today we deal with both al Qaeda 1.0 and al Qaeda 2.0 (see discussion below).  Lacking an u nderstanding of the evolution of al Qaeda and the jihad is a fatal flaw.  In my opinion, it is an essential understanding if “one” is going to engage in any discussion of al Qaeda, the jihad or now, the events in Pakistan and Muslim South Asia.

Having seen plenty of criticism of Huckabee’s comments following Bhutto’s assassination, I believe that Rudy’s statement that eliminating bin Laden would weaken al Qaeda and the Global Jihad, further and clearly illustrates that he is an inappropriate choice for President.  As I have explained below and in other posts, cutting the head off of this snake will not kill the serpent [frankly, if you think otherwise, perhaps reading further is a waste of time].  An earlier post on the political implication of the Bhutto assassination - Political “Experience” & The Bhutto Assassination

Next, there is a series of posts “suggesting” that Bhutto, in a prior video, claimed that Omar Sheik murdered bin Laden.  This is debunked by Laer in Bhutto Clip: Bin Laden Dead?, by Hot Air in Video: The obligatory “Bhutto says Omar Sheikh killed Osama” post…both posts refer to Jawa’s post.  Given credible reports of a new video to be released featuring the “Jihadi Mark Twain,” I seriously doubt that bin Laden is dead (at least not the way implied by the implication).  Additionally, there is no other confirmation of his passing.  IMO, he ain’t dead (yet).

Finally, there is the question of the importance of al Qaeda going forward.  I originally wrote this post on December 22, 2007.  Today, a week later, I see no reason to alter my opinion.

Spree has expanded coverage of the Bhutto assassination in her updates post, here.  Right Truth offers additional views on the Bhutto killing in Only a sharpshooter could kill her.  Also check out AC’s take on this at Fore Left, Aftermath.  For another view, that of the CWA-NJ Conservatives, go here (the post is a political view, and therefore, IMO, well, my point of view is expressed in my posts).

____________________________________________________________________

PREVIOUS POST: All arguments to the contrary, al Qaeda is important, its continued existence is important, the fact that bin Laden remains at-large is important. No amount of rationalization that either is unrelated to the prosecution of the War on Terrorism is foolish at best. So this is a multi-part post. The first.second is mostly my own and the third is a summary of the Stratfor article on the subject.

A number of months ago I wrote (in synch with a post by Doug Farah of the Counterterrorism Blog and on his own blog, The Emerging Shape of the Future Jihad) about the jihadist treatise that it espoused the principles of “nizam, la tanzim,” or ‘System, not organisation’ as preached in the tenets of the treatise written by Spanish-Syrian strategist Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (aka Abu Musab al-Suri), Da’wat al-muqawamah al-islamiyyah al-’alamiyyah (”The Call for a Global Islamic Resistance”). Essentially, this point of view leads one to believe that regardless of the leadership or figurehead, the driving force behind the continuing jihad, ala al Qaeda, will be system, and not the existing hierarchy of al Qaeda as we learned about it starting on September 11, 2001. But it is from this platform that the spread of Global Jihadism stems. At least that is a position I have held for quite some time. While al Qaeda in Iraq is a clear “franchise” or clone of al Qaeda (central), explaining al Qaeda spin-offs in the Far East, the adoption of Global Jihadist goals and tactics in other parts of the World, can only be attributed to the concept of “system, not organization.” Especially given the role and importance of the Internet for communication and yes, even training and indoctrination, the ability to “spread the word” to like minded terrorists is relatively unfettered.

As an excerpt from a post written long ago, Global Terrorism - A Pandemic

Slightly more than a year ago I wrote a post, Global Terrorism - A Virus in which the ways in which terrorism was spreading was looking more and more like the spread of a virus. In that post, I observed that:

It has been my contention that terrorism is spreading. One way or another, regardless of your political leaning, I suggest that what is happening in Iraq is that the streets of Baghdad and Mosul and Fallujah have served as training grounds to terrorists, mostly of the Muslim variety, who, when they leave Iraq, go back to their country of origin, loads smarter about strategy and tactics. So in this way, al Qaeda-type terrorism, like that being practiced by Zarqawi and friends, is penetrating countries in Europe and elsewhere. This is a very bad implication.

Then, I concluded:

In my opinion, this whole premise of the War on Terror being a war to be waged against nation states, not recognizing the amorphous or amoebic nature of the type of terrorism that is spreading through radical Islam, I fear will lead to additional attacks because we are underestimating the nature of the threat. Treating global terrorism like an epidemic, actually a pandemic, in my opinion will lead to a much more satisfactory result, and probably an earlier rather than later conclusion to this conflict (using that word doesn’t sound right, or do justice to what we are facing).

This is certainly a way to explain the ways in which al Qaeda and its brand of Global Jihaist terrorism continues to spread. What it doesn’t explain is what I see as the inexplicable fantasy outlooks by “some” people (many widely read Internet journalists), that we are actually making headway against al Qaeda (or the previously “defunct” Taliban)…simply because one battle or another is being won…or because in one specific battle, a dozen or more jihadists were killed. The numbers of KIA mean nothing. Its only after you realize and accept that the joihad will live on long after bin Laden and Zawahiri are finally captured or killed, that the battles will still rage. This is not a tradional war that will be won in traditional ways. And yet, I and others continue to believe that the killing or better, the capture of bin Laden and Zawahiri is important. While the degree to which the al Qaeda clones (or franchises) will be weakened or affected by the taking down of al Qaeda ¹ (prime), or as it is referred to in this post from the Counterterrorism Blog.

In his post, Why al Qaeda 1.0 Still Matters, Doug Farah, and referring to the following piece from the Washington Post (Algiers Attacks Show Maturing of Al-Qaeda Unit), he writes:

The Dec. 11 attack in Algiers by Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb shows that the old guard of al Qaeda, what some analysts call al Qaeda 1.0 (rather than the new, decentralized structure) still matters…It is increasingly clear that the old guard, operating from Pakistan and the border region with Afghanistan, has regrouped and is in more direct communication with its affiliates than it was 6 months ago…

Also see Farah’s full post here.

The Washington Post article is interesting in that it describes the obscure faction once known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat took on a new name, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in January. (Maghreb is an Arabic word for the region of North Africa stretching from Libya to Mauritania.)…and that it has adopted various abilities, including that of video taping attacks. Thus, the clone takes on the capabilities of the host.

See the Stratfor article: Al Qaeda in 2008: The Struggle for Relevance (article also here) In an interesting way, and to a degree, the Stratfor article disagrees with the above points of view, and yet still notes the importance of the various al Qaeda “nodes,” including al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (see Algiers).

…the core al Qaeda leadership clearly is struggling to remain relevant in the ideological realm, a daunting task for an organization that has been rendered geopolitically and strategically impotent on the physical battlefield.

Stratfor also looks at the resurgence of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and in Pakistan as a critical sign:

Despite U.S. and NATO forces’ repeated tactical victories on the battlefield, al Qaeda’s Afghan allies, the Taliban, continue to survive — the critical task for any guerrilla force engaged in an insurgent war…the Taliban largely seek to avoid extended battles and instead seek to engage in hit-and-run guerrilla operations…they realize that they cannot stand toe-to-toe with the superior armaments of the foreign invaders…therefore, they occasionally will occupy a town, such as Musa Qala, but will retreat in the face of overwhelming force and return when that superior force has been deployed elsewhere.

Due to the presence of foreign troops, the Taliban have no hope of taking control of Afghanistan at this juncture. However, unlike the foreign troops, the Taliban fighters and their commanders are not going anywhere. They have a patient philosophy and will bide their time until the tactical or political conditions change in their favor…The Taliban have a very diffuse structure, and even the loss of senior leaders such as Mullah Dadullah and Mullah Obaidullah Akhund has not proven to be much of a hindrance…

Pakistan should be carefully watched because it could prove to be a significant flash point in the coming year. As the global headquarters for the al Qaeda leadership, Pakistan has long been a significant stronghold on the ideological battlefield…

Thus, if you’re listening to the signals, you may be less apt to celebrate the “small” victories of a few dozen Taliban killed by NATO or Coalition forces. While I am not truly intending to draw the parallel, the fact is that this War on Terror against the al Qaeda inspired jihad is similar to the insurgent wars against the Viet Cong 35 years ago. Those who believe that we are “winning” are missing the point, and the true meaning of “winning” itself.

I hope that by stumbling across my little place that you will get something from my “ramblings” (which of course are nothing like ramblings). I do hope that you’ll come back and follow this link to help me keep readership up.

Thank you

StormWarning

al Qaeda 1.0, al qaeda 2.0, bin Laden, la tanzim, nizam, With Bhutto Gone Sphere: Related Content

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BTW, if you’re a new reader, I hope you will find my candor “interesting.”  I attempt to avoid politicizing important events, and think that I bring a perspective from my experiences that helps to enlighten (see About).  In just a few days, a review of the predictions and observations made on December 30, 2006 will be provided.  In these times, history is made in real time.  Looking back on the observations and predictions from a year ago, “grading the paper,” should be interesting.  And hopefully, a look at “the way ahead” will offer a perspective on things to come.  Crystal balling if you will.  Please feel free to browse recent posts while I prepare the “year in review.”

predictions, the way ahead Sphere: Related Content

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Since yesterday morning ”pundits” and politicians have been falling over each other touting their “experience” in light of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.  While being able to cope with the unpredictability of today’s world is a key attribute, none have experience with World crisis.  Some of the candidates were on point, others IMO simply missed it.

Personally, I think that cherry picking and nit picking what one politician or another said about the assassination is wrong. These are all human beings who were acting on the spur of the moment (and no, I didn’t hear any of the statements). Pakistan is in a serious position right now. And if, as I posted, al Qaeda is behind this precision killing (she may have been shot with armor piercing bullets), it bodes badly not only for Pakistan and the region, but anywhere al Qaeda has reach. If this is so, then no politician or leader is safe. 

A sampling:
Washington Post 
Chicago Tribune
LA Times
Wall St. Journal
Google: Candidates Bhutto

Its why Obama isn’t ready yet; its why people like Huckabee and Romney don’t have the perspective; its why Senator Clinton is a “wannabee;” and its why Giuliani and McCain will fight it out (IMO - and hopefully, Rudy will not win because I believe that he lacks the sensitivity and demeanor to deal with World crisis without emotionalism); its why foreign policy experience is critical; its why I’m sorry that the candidates with the most experience in foreign policy won’t win either nomination.

Bhutto, candidates, foreign policy Sphere: Related Content

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While things can change rapidly, al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.  At this point, unless this is disproven, all other speculations are simply and nothing more than speculation.  As I wrote this morning (Bhutto Assassination - Questions, Comments (Evolving), AQIP has the motives. 

A spokesperson for the al-Qaeda terrorist network has claimed responsibility for the death on Thursday of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

“We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen,” Al-Qaeda’s commander and main spokesperson Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid told Adnkronos International (AKI) in a phone call from an unknown location, speaking in faltering English. Al-Yazid is the main al-Qaeda commander in Afghanistan.

The decision to kill Bhutto was reportedly made by Zawahiri.

‘Almost Certainly Al Qaeda’ - A Pakistan analyst discusses who killed Benazir Bhutto and what her death will mean for Pakistan.

Bruce Riedel, a former defense and intelligence official who helped make South Asia policy in the administrations of George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, says he believes Benazir Bhutto’s assassination “was almost certainly the work of Al Qaeda or Al Qaeda’s Pakistani allies.” He says, “Their objective is to destabilize the Pakistani state, to break up the secular political parties, to break up the army so that Pakistan becomes a politically failing state in which the Islamists in time can come to power much as they have in other failing states.” He says the United States should press the government of President Pervez Musharraf to go ahead with the parliamentary elections—perhaps after a brief pause. “The only way that Pakistan is going to be able to fight terrorism effectively is to have a legitimate democratically elected secular government that can rally the Pakistani people to engage Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other extremist movements,” he says.

Eli Lake of the NY Sun writes: Al Qaeda Seen as Chief Suspect in Bhutto Slaying - Analyst Links Sophistication of Attack to Terror Group

Al Qaeda has openly called for Bhutto’s assassination, and has also claimed credit for attempts on the life of Pakistan’s current president, Pervez Musharraf.

..Nonetheless, the group has not issued an official statement claiming credit on either of its two largest jihad Web forums, Ekhlaas Forum or al-Firdaws.

An analyst who closely monitors jihad Web forums and media, Nicholas Grace, today said the two Web forums went dark between 12:05 p.m. and 1:05 p.m. EST, suggesting a major announcement was forthcoming. Al Qaeda uses these forums to communicate with its rank and file throughout the world and to indoctrinate new recruits into their terror network…

There is a somewhat softer position taken byanother NY Sun writer, Who Killed Bhutto? The Scramble for Culprits Begins

Who killed Benazir Bhutto? In a country riven by deep political differences and beset by constant violent threats from Islamist terrorists, including Al Qaeda, it is a question more easily asked than answered.

American officials are exploring whether the immediate claim of responsibility by an Al Qaeda leader in Afghanistan posted on an Italian Web site is credible. A reporter from the Web site spoke to the commander of Al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, who said, “We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahideen.”

Speculations? I read enough of those every day.  If you wanted idle speculation, you wouldn’t be here (I don’t think).  I could be wrong (and often I am), but at least my views are mine and they’re out there.

By the way, honesty showing here…this post was originally posted at 2:59PM…earlier today, I was both right and wrong when in one of the earlier posts, I wrote a comment:

on 27 Dec 2007 at 12:01 pm # edit thisStormWarning

Darrell: Unconnected is the real possibility that al Qaeda was directly involved. But you’re right, I believe that Sharif has Islamic militant connections…and there is nothing at this point to dissuade me from believing that the ISI could have acted alone. A few hours may lead to more information, although I suspect the guys at CTB are right and that there may not be any atrribution.

The most important point here is that the elections are now thrown into chaos and the nuclear card is still in play.

And the Washington Post article, Benazir Bhutto Assassinated in Pakistan - Former Prime Minister Killed 12 Days Before Parliamentary Elections writes about the emotion, the grief, the violence and the finger pointing now occuring in Pakistan…[now, probably the World's most dangerous country].

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf blamed Islamic extremists for the assassination, but some angry Bhutto supporters held Musharraf responsible.

The point remains…AQIP is real.

See the real reality check by Sigmund, Carl and Alfred on Bhutto, here. And check out Spree’s summary of the events of the day, especially of the candidates statements, here.

al Qaeda, al Qaeda in Pakistan, AQIP, Bhutto, Mustafa Abu Al Yazid, Washington Post Sphere: Related Content

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“Headlining” this is easy.  Now comes the “less easy.”  Bhutto was a target from the moment she returned to Pakistan.  We all knew it.  She knew it!  I’m guessing now, but its not out of the question that the suicide bomb was a distraction for the sniper who hit her 5 times in neck and chest.  She died in the hospital.  The attack came in Rawalpindi, the garrison city near Islamabad that is also home to Pakistani Army headquarters.  It is obvious that this event pushes Pakistan to the brink.  Combining the nuclear “warm-up” between India and Pakistan, and the ever present and re-emerging al Qaeda in Pakistan (AQIP), the seriousness of this newest instability cannot be understated.  Further, the time has come, IMO, for the U.S. to intercede in ways previously avoided (you can reference any one of a number of posts of mine in which I harped on the instability in Pakistan, and my distrust of the country, Musharraf and the ISI). 

UPDATES:  Not surprisingly, the guys at Counterterrorism Blog are all over this one:

From Aaron Mannes: Bhutto’s Assassination Needs a Real Investigation (also CTB here):

Facts about Benazir Bhutto’s assassination are in short supply. Unfortunately that is unlikely to change. There is a long tradition of failure to investigate political murders in Pakistan. This cannot continue if Pakistan is to become a stable democratic state that serves its people and exists at peace with the world. The first step is that Musharraf invite the international community to advise in the investigation into Bhutto’s death. The investigation will be politically expensive – it may not reach Musharraf himself but it will reach deep into the civilian and military elites running Pakistan…

A thorough investigation might be a first step to countering the rot pervading Pakistani politics. But if the murderers and their backers can get away with this murder Pakistan’s downward spiral will only continue…

From Animesh Roul: Pakistan on the Brink: Assassination of Benezir Bhutto triggers widespread violence in Pakistan

There is no doubt that the assassination of Bhutto will deepen the ongoing political crisis in Pakistan. The big question now before the Musharaf regime is that whether to hold the election or impose country wide emergency again.

From Jonathan Winer: Benazir Bhutto’s Assassination — a Lethal Assault on Democracy

…Benazir Bhutto, had enormous gifts, intelligence, education, the ability to lead, great speaking ability, and a charisma…She bridged the traditional and the modern, and understood the west in general and the United States in particular…Her faults were also profound…Brookings scholar Stephen Cohen as “progressive social and economic policies; accommodation with India; good relations with all of the major powers (including the United States); gender empowerment; and a commitment to parliamentary democracy and a free press.” [skipping good stuff]…Today, Pakistan lurches one step closer towards that frightening outcome. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, like too many other assassinations before it, has just changed history, and not for the better.

I have also seen it written that Bhutto’s Death Poses Dilemma for US.  No shit! IMO, it represents still another miscalculation of the internal societal and indigenous population issues by the United States. Note that this is not an indictment of the Bush Adminstration per se…we as a country continue to miss the point when dealing with foreign countries, especially those with cultures dramatically unlike our own.

The Bush administration scrambled Thursday with the implications of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination after investing significant diplomatic capital in promoting reconciliation between her and President Pervez Musharraf.

This was the second attempt to kill her in 2 months, the last one on October 18th [Pakistan: Bomb Attack - Attempt to Assassinate Bhutto].  I will, as time and events permit and warrant, update this entry.  In the meantime, remember that headlining the news is irrelevant.

Not minimizing the tragedy of the 20(+) people who were killed by the suicide bomber, there is much more to this event.

Bhutto’s security adviser Rehman Malik said she was shot in the neck and chest.

“We repeatedly informed the government to provide her proper security and appropriate equipment including jammers (devices to foil remote-control detonation of bombs), but they paid no heed to our requests,” he said.

But this attack follows closely another on one of Musharraf’s other challengers.

The attack came just hours after four supporters of former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif died when members of another political party opened fire on them at a rally near the Islamabad airport Thursday, Pakistan police said.

According to other reports, another attempted assassination was thwarted yesterday.

POLICE in Pakistan have stopped a 15-year-old boy they say was carrying a bomb made of dynamite and nails from gettnig into a rally by opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

A good summary of the previous attempt on Bhutto’s life is found at the Counterterrorism Blog where their experts all contribute articles on this mess, and the indicators from October.

Questions:
1) What if any complicity will be proven of the Pakistani army, Musharraf, or the ISI?
2) What if any role did al Qaeda play in this (given their role in the attempt on Musharraf, I’d bet on al Qaeda’s involvement)?

It is also critical to remember (or be enlightened) that neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan are really unified countries as we know them.  Both are conglomerations of tribal areas…both are strongly influenced by the tribes and the warlords.  That Bhutto was assassinated is not the surprise.  The surprise(s) will be if and when there is attribution for the deed…the surprise is that Musharraf survived the attempts on his life (or that he still lives), and frankly, that Karzai is still walking, surprises me.

From previous Storm posts (never just a headliner - always seeking the truth and insight - hating it when I’m right): Pakistan - A Series of Choices Gone Wrong (UPDATED), Pakistan in Crisis (Musharraf’s) - Possibly Serious Implications, Musharraf’s End of Days - UPDATED

You can vote for this article at Real Clear Politics (if you wish, of course).

And slightly afterward, Right Truth posted this on Bhutto.

BTW, an example of a “headliner” is found here.

assassination, Bhutto, ISI, Musharraf, Rehman Malik, Sharif Sphere: Related Content

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What’s this I hear?  A new news report is talking about an emerging success story in Iraq.  Last Xmas, downtown Fallujah was a very dangerous place for U.S. troops.  AQI and other terrorists attacked and killed our soldiers.  But, showing cooperation between Iraqi citizens and the troops, Fallujah is on the verge of showing the way to winning in Iraq.  Note that as the day passes, and time permits, I will add more detail on Fallujah and its history, and the methods we have used to quell the violence.

What’s this I hear?  This report is from one of the symbols and bastions of the “traditional” media (I somehow avoid such missives as “mainstream media,” or worse, “lamestream media,” or even worse, Limbaugh’s “drive by media).  Where are the screechers now?  Newsweek, What a Difference … A year makes. A report from Fallujah, Iraq.

Fed up with the wanton assassinations and summary executions by Al Qaeda in Iraq and alarmed that the group was strangling Fallujah’s economy, city leaders and residents joined forces with the Marines to expel the group. Many Fallujah residents once offered help to insurgents or at best looked the other way when they fired rocket-propelled grenades, mortar and artillery at Marines and killed or maimed them with the dreaded improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that became commonplace. The same residents now identify insurgents to the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police force, who kill, capture or drive them from the city…

Sooner or later the citizens of this place that they call Iraq were going to get tired of the bloodshed, violence and shootings. Aditionally, the Americans divided Fallujah into nine precincts, making it wasier and more manageable to deliver services and to stabilize the sectors. So the citizens of Fallujah in Anbar Province now complain about not having eletricity 24 hours a day, when not long ago there was no power. But at least in this one area, stability is near. Its a good story to end the year with, and to look forward to the New Year with hope of some semblance of peace in Iraq.  Frankly, I’m surprised, since Anbar has from the beginning been one of the hotbeds of violence.

You can vote for this article at Real Clear Politics (if you wish, of course).

Thank you 

StormWarning

Anbar province, Fallujah, Marines Sphere: Related Content

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Catchy tune, huh?  They sing about Kalashnikovs and cocaine alongside their traditional ballads of hard work and lost love.  These are the drug ballads or narco corridos.  In November 2006, the singer of “Contraband in the Border,” Valentin Elizalde was killed in ambush outside a cockfighting ring in the border city of Reynosa.  In all, at least 13 musicians have been killed since June 2006.

The indiscriminate killings of the narco-terrorists is astounding…especially when it starts to take entertainers (no type of music bias - all types killed).

Investigators have yet to solve any of the 13 musician killings. Nor have they revealed any suspects, although they have said that drug gangs could be responsible. The same murkiness clouds most of the 2,500 slayings in Mexico this year that have been tallied by the leading Mexican newspapers in what they call “execution-meters.” Those killings involve ambushes or abductions and appear to bear to marks of organized crime.

All of this at a time when El Presidente Felipe Calderon insists that the war vs drug trafficking and the cartels in being won - record cocaine seizures - extraditing lords to the U.S. - using the military to patrol drug ravaged towns (he doesn’t have to deal with Posse Comitatus). Targeted or simply coincidence…Mexican drug violence continues.

Sergio Gómez was kidnapped on December 2 in Morelia, Mexico and found dead the next day.  While there is no proof, there are suggestions that Gómez might have been “supported” by one of the drug cartels.

“The narcos are completely involved in the business,” Lucio Tzin Tzun, who has been a concert promoter here for 20 years, said in an interview. “They control everything. It’s like a mafia…”

…In Mexico, the musical celebration of counterculture figures is in the country’s DNA. An array of homages are still sung to Pancho Villa — a bandit turned revolutionary-era folk hero. The new bandit heroes are drug traffickers, celebrated in songs known as narcocorridos and written by artists who are “essentially court poets for the drug world,” said Elijah Wald, author of the book “Narcocorrido: A Journey Into the Music of Drugs, Guns and Guerrillas.”

For lack of a better term, the drug lords become benefactors of the arts (read that as an easy way to launder money).

You can vote for this article at Real Clear Politics (if you wish, of course).

border, drug wars, Morelia, narco corridos, Sergio Gomez, Valentin Elizalde