Observing the Game(s) of International Chess and Bluffing
Posted by StormWarning on 16 Oct 2007 at 09:56 pm | Tagged as: Current Affairs, International Issues, Iran, Iraq, Israel, National Security, Opinions, Russia
Its time to look at the big picture again and comment on a few of the intriguing chess moves being played out on the World’s stages: Russia and Iran, Turkey-Iraq, China and Tibet. There is alot of stuff going on in the World these days and “All the World’s a Stage.” The answer to the real question lies in figuring out who is bluffing and who isn’t.
But first, lets observe that radical Muslims have announced that they are now in control of the Public Broadcasting Station in the Netherlands. Its time to pay attention to the Islamification of middle Europe. Its been coming for some time now, especially in places like the Netherlands and Denmark where demography has shown a dramatic increase in Muslim population.
Radical Muslims have taken control of the Dutch Muslim Broadcaster (NMO). At least three of the public broadcaster’s eight directors are extremely controversial, according to TV programme Nova.
Until recently, the Netherlands had two Islamic public broadcasters: the moderate NMO and the orthodox Dutch Islamic Broadcasting Organisation (NIO). Media watchdog Commissariaat voor de Media demanded that the two would merge so that the Islamic faith would have a single representative body in the public system. But according to Nova, this resulted in NIO staging a coup of NMO.
Note the European Muslim Populations by Country shown here.
So, let’s see. How about Russia and Iran…Putin Warns Against Attacks on Iran
Vladimir Putin issued a veiled warning Tuesday against any attack on Iran as he began the first visit by a Kremlin leader to Tehran in six decades _ a mission reflecting Russian-Iranian efforts to curb U.S. influence.
He also suggested Moscow and Tehran should have a veto on Western plans for new pipelines to carry oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea, using routes that would bypass Russian soil and break the Kremlin’s monopoly on energy deliveries from the region.
Putin is not bluffing. He goes to Iran in spite of the assassination threat? I’ve been making the point for quite some time now that Putin is tired of the U.S. being the only Superpower…he is reasserting the Russian Bear…and frankly, in his plans of installing his own man as his replacement, and leaving the path open for his own return, possibly even laying the groundwork for another “long term” Russian leader (read that “dictator”). I have made it very clear that I believe we are the verge of a new Cold War.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrives at Mehrabad International airport in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007. Putin arrived in Tehran on Tuesday for a historic visit to hold talks on Iran’s nuclear program and attend a Caspian sea summit. The visit, the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, is taking place despite warnings of a possible assassination plot and amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.(AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) (Hasan Sarbakhshian - AP)
Check out previous posts:
Cold War - Perception versus Reality (UPDATED - I started writing this post a few days ago before “my day job” created its own furor. One man’s perception is another’s reality. It is thus difficult for me to accept a blanket statement by President Bush that “the cold war is over” considering the continuing rhetoric spewed by Vladimir Putin. Saying that “we don’t believe in a zero sum world,” President Bush was on his way to the G8 meeting where he would have a meeting with Vladimir (because George calls him Vladimir.
Cold War? What Cold War? - Just what is happening in Russia these days, and why is it that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, clearly a very intelligent and qualified person, can actually state “I have a difficult time explaining that speech. It doesn’t accord with either the world as we see it nor with the character of our interactions with the Russians.” Something just doesn’t make sense, and I believe that it goes beyond the subtlety of Anne Applebaum’s article in the Washington Post, Our Strange Devotion to the Kremlin.
The Second Coming - Cold War II - Not unnoticed in some circles was the bombast of Vladimir Putin’s speech last week denouncing the U.S. as “overstepping its boundaries” worldwide. The question being posed, dear readers, is whether this White House understands the implications of Putin’s outspokenness…
Turkey-Iraq… Erdogan Plays Down Threat to Iraq
With tensions high along the Iraqi-Turkish border as the Turkish government seeks parliamentary approval for military raids into northern Iraq, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said today that the approval would not necessarily immediately be followed by military action.“I sincerely wish that this motion will never be applied,” Mr. Erdogan told his ruling AK Party in a speech, Reuters reported. “Passage of this motion does not mean an immediate incursion will follow, but we will act at the right time and under the right conditions.”He also called on Iraq and the Kurdish authorities in northern Iraq to crack down on the Kurdish rebels, who launch attacks into Turkey from the Kurdish region of Iraq…
Clearly, there is still a chance of a diplomatic solution to this, but I have serious doubts. I don’t think that Turkey is bluffing here. 
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressing the AK Party in Anakara today. Adem Altan/AFP-Getty Images
My belief is that Turkey has been seriously concerned about the developments in Iraq, and in its own country, including the Kurds in Iraq and the PKK. It has been clear that Turkey would not be happy if Kurdistan was given it independence…not a lot different if Iraq becomes a decentralized federal government.
Check out previous posts:
Turkey Fears Kurds, Not Armenians - …or the Americans for that matter. Despite a major U.S.-based investment in a Turkish shipping company, reports are that Turkish shells fell on the Kurdish Autonomous Region in N. Iraq yesterday. And still, Pelosi’s Democrats press on with the Armenian genocide bill. It is clear to anyone (else) that Turkey fears the Kurds alot more than the Armenians or the Americans
Battle Ground in Northern Iraq (Turks vs Kurds) - The Next Conflict - The remanant shards of ethnic and religious distrust of the lost Ottoman Empire, complicated by Britain’s arbitrary nation-creating and a Congressional vote on Armenian genocide leads to an eventual outbreak between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq (Turkey is considering what they call an incursion after this weekend). This spreading of instability can do nothing to help the region…
So that’s two “no bluffs.” Next, China and Tibet…Dalai Lama’s US award not to affect Tibet’s stability
The planned award to the Dalai Lama by the US Congress will not affect Tibet’s stability, an official of southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region said Tuesday.
“It will only be an injection of cardiotonic to secessionist activities,” Qiangba Puncog, chairman of the regional government of Tibet, told reporters at the ongoing 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
The Dalai Lama is to receive the Congressional Gold Medal, a top US civilian award, on Wednesday at the US Capitol. The ceremony is said to be attended by US President George W. Bush.
“The award won’t have much influence on the stable development of Tibet,” said Qiangba Puncog, a delegate to the Party congress.
Also, China Issues Warning on Dalai Lama Trip
Chinese officials warned the United States on Tuesday not to honor the Dalai Lama, saying a planned award ceremony in Washington for the Tibetan spiritual leader would have “an extremely serious impact” on relations between the countries.
Speaking at a Foreign Ministry briefing and on the sidelines of the Communist Party’s 17th National Congress, the officials condemned the Dalai Lama as a resolute separatist and said foreign leaders must stop encouraging his “splittist” mission.
“Such a person who basely splits his motherland and doesn’t even love his motherland has been welcomed by some countries and has even been receiving this or that award,” Tibet’s Communist Party boss, Zhang Qingli, told reporters during the congress.
“We are furious,” Mr. Zhang said. “If the Dalai Lama can receive such an award, there must be no justice or good people in the world.”
OK, this is a bluff all the way, and I especially like the part about “there must be no justice or good people in the world.” China has obligatory power over Tibet…and since it invaded in 1951. The Dalai Lama has been in exile in India since 1959. Also see: Q&A: The Dalai Lama, Tibet and China. They met, but from what I understand, the meeting wasn’t even on President Bush’s official calendar.
There is alot more going on in the World this week. I may add to this post later on when I have the time (if I remember). One of the real questions, is whether I’m right or puffing smoke…then again…anyone else???
Crossposted at Real Clear Politics - please “vote” Please also read Wake Up America, Armenian Genocide Bill Splits Democrats. Please also see and read “Hello Dalli” at Right Truth (I don’t understand the “play on words”).
China. Tibet, Cold War, Dalai Lama, Dutch Muslim Broadcaster, Kurdistan, Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Washington Post
Is it possible that the Kurdish PKK attacks and provocations against Turkey could be plotted and actionized by the Iranian Revo Guards? Using proxies and minions seems to be an Islamic Republic trademark.
Yes, it could be. But the PKK have been aggressively active for many years.
I’m not sure that you can generalize by saying “islamic republic” trademark.
“Using proxies and minions” is a tactic of most nation states, including the U.S. that can-do-no-wrong in the eyes of some. If we look at the history of U.S. involvement in the Americas we can discern a glimpse of the “truthiness” of this statement.
Stormwarning, I appreciate your one sentence intervention into the displacement of the evils of most nation states onto the shadowy, dangerous, and possibly terroristic “Islamic Republic trademark.”
Although, Courtneyme109 is on to something. According to some “experts,” the era of nation state conflict, waged with “conventional” armies has ended. The wars of the future, these “experts” claim, shall be waged by non-nation-state actors, who may be proxies or minions of a nation state, but also may be independent combatants (independent in the sense that they’re not beholden to a nation state).
A closing question: What is the purpose of “voting” for your posts at “Real Clear Politics”? Do you win a “prize” if your post receives the most votes?
I had a debate a long time back (buried somewhere in the archives) about the shift from Nation-state terrorism to non-nation state terrorism…the “debate” was between me and a retired Naval Officer who at the time was teaching at the Naval War College. His position was the traditional interpretation of terrorism, mine, I believe, represented the shift to what you earlier referred as 4th generation or 5th generation wars. The argument was that state sponsored terrorism was the predominant form that we faced. My position was that while state sponsored terrorism was the obvious (through proxies), like Iran and Hezbollah or Syria/Lebanon etc., that al Qaeda and its spinoffs were substantially different. And that it didn’t matter much where al Qaeda’s funding came from…
I maintain that not all terrorism is state sponsored or done by nation states. In fact, I believe that following the al-Suri treatise of “system, not organization” and the spread of the philosophy of jihad, that the clones or franchises of al Qaeda represented the real enemy since they were less identifiable, harder to find, and more “blended into society.” I cantinue to believe this. I could go on, and may come back to this subject later in the week if things go better in my “day job.”
As for the RCP stuff, its a matter of traffic marketing (especially since the move…traffic less than half of what it was)…more comments tomorrow when I’m not too tired. Even that recently hasn’t meant anything. I suspect that I pissed off a lot of past readers with my anti-Ann Coulter rant the other day. The move to Wordpress sut readership down by atleast 40% and the number of people reading through Feedburner dropped dramatically this past week from over 60 to less than 20…who knows? But at some point today (I think), some lucky reader will become #50,000 (not that many considering). When I write articles for the “other blog” where I write as myself, some of my articles get over 10,000 readers alone (maybe I should spend more time writing those)?
Wow, 10,000 readers for one article! That many visitors would destroy my visitor tracker, statcounter. According to statcounter, I receive between 100 and 125 “unique visitors” each day, with about 10 to 15 “returning visitors.” But, honestly, I could care less. I don’t write for readers. I selfishly write for myself; with the hope of organizing my mind.
I write because I like to express my thoughts about issues relating to terrorism and technologies. I write anonymously here for business reasons. I write for other website as myself because it is a different kind of writing (I’m no where near as disciplined here) and the audience is much larger. I am header toward a future “retirement” during which I hope to remain involved in analysis and writing. I don’t write for any other reason than my own. On the otherhand, there is so much rhetoric (and beyond) spewing around the Internet that I simply hope to offer a more reasoned view of selected topics. And by the way, I too average about 125-150 discrete readers a day…it was more before the move to WordPress. But I like this so much more.