StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

The Internet is all aflutter with “news” of Abu Usama al-Tunisi’s death (Tunisi is/was the likely successor of Abu Ayyub al-Masri).  Despite the announcement made by Chief of Staff of Multinational Corps-Iraq, BG Joseph Anderson, some experts like Evan Kohlmann have questions that lie in the fact that this is the second time that al-Tunisi’s death has been announced.

Kohlmann’s article on the Counterterrorism Blog, “A Tale of Two Tunisis? Questions About the Latest Al-Qaida Casualty in Iraq,” as well as his continuing work on  Globalterroralert.com make his insights worthy of consideration (actually, that’s an understatement).  Kohlmann notes is his CTB post that “this is not the first time that Abu Usama al-Tunisi has been reported killed. Over a year ago (in May 2006), Al-Qaida supporters posted online announcements declaring the “martyrdom” of Abu Usama al-Tunisi. The news of al-Tunisi’s death was distributed on, among other places, the highly credible Al-Hesbah Islamic Network–which has been directly endorsed in past propaganda films produced by Al-Qaida in Iraq.”

“The martyrdom of Abu Usama al-Tunisi, the commander of [Al-Qaida’s] Aeisha Brigade… He caused much desperation and anxiety among the Americans and he spread frustration among their soldiers. The Americans knew Abu Usama al-Tunisi very well, because he was one of the commanders who led the Battle of Abu Anas al-Shami during which he served as the military commander responsible for one of the four frontlines of the mission… Abu Usama first entered Iraq two years ago. He used to always smile when talking to his brothers and had a profound faith in Allah. Abu Usama was killed in the area of Al-Yusifiya during an air strike that also killed four other brothers.”

The question may not be whether al-Tunisi is dead, but whether he met his virgins over a year ago.  Kohlmann questions the discrepancy of today’s announcement by General Anderson and the May 2006 announcement of Al-Hesbah Islamic Network:

Is it possible that there are two separate Abu Usama al-Tunisis serving as commanders for Al-Qaida in Iraq? (unlikely).  Given that it is unlikely that there are twin terrorists, the endless possibilities include:

• that Al-Qaida supporters were engaged in a deliberate misinformation campaign on their own password-protected chat forums 
• or the U.S. military has potentially been the victim of questionable intelligence.

One of the characteristics of al Qaeda is that they will be prompt and accurate in announcing the martyrdom of its commanders.  I’ll go with Kohlmann’s views.

UPDATE:  This morning (Oct. 2, 2007) there are reports that al Qaeda in Iraq is calling al-Tunisi a martyr.

The statement, which could not be independently verified, did not say when or how al-Tunisi died. The U.S. Central Command reported last week that a U.S. airstrike south of Baghdad killed al-Tunisi and two other terror suspects.

This is also discussed at Think Progress, and Wake Up America.

Abu Ayyub al Masri, Abu Usama al Tunisi, Al Hesbah Islamic Network, al Qaeda in Iraq, Evan Kohlmann Sphere: Related Content

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When Ahmadinejad appeared at Columbia University, some defended Columbia claiming this terrorist boob’s (being disrespectful to boobs of all sizes and shapes) non-existent “speech rights.”  Most blasted Columbia for asking him.  My first reaction to President Bollinger’s scathing introduction was that he had “embarrassed” Ahmadinejad.  I was wrong.  As post-events have evolved…

My misconception resulted from the unavoidable “day job” stresses and a tendency to scan articles and blogs, only stopping momentarily if something catches my eye.  I was wrong.  On reflection, and now in “downtime” on a weekend flash-trip back to NYC, two three things are apparent:

1) The appearance at Columbia University legitimized a terrorist and gave him a platform from which to spew his ridiculous thoughts

2) Bollinger’s performance is being panned in both the West and in Islamic countries for having insulted his “guest.”

It is clear to me that my initial opinion, on whatever it was based or influenced by a hectic (that doesn’t even begin to describe the maelstrom of my “day job” these days) schedule, was way off target.

3) Bollinger’s words are being used as propaganda, and being characterized as “discourteous” and disgraceful.

Among the many who read my comments was Spree at Wake Up America (I had disagreed with her post).  Also see more about this at Right Truth.  I’ve got to be more careful about reading stuff sometimes.  But if in hindsight…when you’re wrong, you’re wrong.

Ahmadinejad, Columbia, Iran Sphere: Related Content

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The legitimacy of the Iraqi government is being undermined by rampant corruption with officials placing themselves above the good of the country.  This report detailing  pervasive fraud, intimidation and misdirection within Iraqi ministries was initially marked Sensitive But Unclassified until the Federation of American Scientists placed copy of their website.  I don’t even want to debate whether or not the report should have been made public.  The chances are pretty good that it should not have been since Sensitive But Unclassified means just that…such information is usually held closely by those who receive it (I see alot of this stuff, especially in the law enforcement area, almost everyday, but would never post anything until the same information hit the public media).  However:

Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists said he had not been contacted by the State Department about the report, which he posted to his group’s Web site on Wednesday. 

“No one has asked me to take it down,” Aftergood told the Blotter on ABCNews.com, “and in the absence of a persuasive security rationale, we wouldn’t.”

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Somehow, now the State Department has placed a “Secret” stamp on the report…but the “cat’s out of the bag.”  First disclosed by the magazine, the Nation (we can all chastise the “Progressive” magazine later”), the report shows corruption in two-dozens ministries and also that al-Maliki refuses to make any financial disclosures.  So without going into massive detail of the report, here are its conclusions:

Conclusion #1: Currently, Iraq is not capable of even rudimentary enforcement of anticorruption laws

Conclusion #2: Lack of access to the ministries is the single biggest hurdle to prosecution of anticorruption cases

Conclusion #3: In addition to the lack of capacity within the anticorruption agencies politicization and fear of accountability are serious impediments to the enforcement of anticorruption laws

Conclusion #4: The Government of Iraq is making grudging progress in capability to investigate and prosecute corruption in Iraq bit not at a level that would support any reasonable time line

Now, in fact, the study is based on work of a group called, Transparency International that recently published its 2007 Transparency International Corruption Index that shows Iraq ranked 178th (1.5), just behind Haiti (1.6), and slightly better than Myanmar and Somalia (both 1.4).  The CPI score indicates the degree of public sector corruption as perceived by business people and country analysts, and ranges between 10 (highly clean) to zero (highly corrupt).  Just for reference sake, the United States ranks 20th with a score of 7.2 (New Zealand, Denamrk and Finland, all with scores of 9.4)

It should be no secret that corruption and all that it is is in fact part of the culture of Iraq and the Middle East in general.  Payoffs, influence, intimidation are all part of the desert, Bedouin culture.  From the FAS/State Department Report:

Corruption has been described through number of sources as one of the major hurdles the Iraqi government must overcome if it is to survive as a stable and independent entity. Corruption is identified as a funding and logistical source for the insurgency and the mainstay of unsanctioned armed groups which make up the militias and conduct attacks both against the Coalition forces and populations other than their own ethnic or sectarian groups. The Prime Minister of Iraq has repeatedly described the fight corruption as the second war in Iraq. The popular press has openly reported corruption as endemic to Iraq and all indications point to corruption as undermining the support of the population for Iraq’s government.

With the wide spread acknowledgement that corruption is a serious if not potential fatal threat to the government of Iraq this report is a comprehensive look at the state of Iraq’s anticorruption enforcement institutions. A six month review this report catalogues the progress of decline of those institutions in their capability and performance. In the last six month analysis the statistics showed a remarkable increase in the newly immerging institutions. In the time between January to July of 2006 the number of cases processed equaled the total cases of the year before.

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - Not for distribution to personnel outside of the US Embassy in Baghdad Iraq - Working Draft

Indeed.  But the report goes on to list in gory detail the findings in each of the Iraqi Ministries.  The recommendations?

Key to any effort to enforce Iraqi’s anticorruption laws is the absence of partisan politics in its prosecution. A clear expectation of this requirement has not been pressed as a matter of policy. Our passive observation to the centralizing of prosecutorial power in the political office of the Prime Minister’s office has encouraged attacks on independence of its prosecutorial arm, CPI.

The US Embassy should articulate as a matter of policy that the fair and independent prosecutions should be a condition for continued assistance to the Iraqis in anticorruption enforcement.

Both the Embassy and MNFI should clearly state and or reinforce that Coalition personnel should not get involve it in lobbying efforts with any Iraqi official to drop and control the results of investigations or custody status concerning corruption cases without first clearing it with senior Embassy staff.

Both the Embassy and MNFI should clearly state and or reinforce that Coalition personnel should not get involve it in lobbying efforts involving Iraqi personnel decisions without first clearing it with senior Embassy staff.

Both the Embassy and MNFI should clearly state and or reinforce that Coalition personnel should not proffer and provide to any Iraqi official proposed legislation or plans on how to organize or operate the government without first clearing it with senior Embassy staff.

Currently anticorruption enforcement forces are so vulnerable as to provide those involved in corruption immunity. The acceptance of militia, organized crime and/or common gang infiltration of Iraq Government Ministries must be confronted.

Anticorruption forces should be supplied with the needed equipment, training and numbers to confront individuals protected by such violent groups.

As a temporary interim measure, in the areas where MNFI controls the battle space, for selected ministries that are critical for the Iraqi  overnment credibility military units under their control should provide force protection for CPI, BSA and the affected IGs to carry out anticorruption activities.

As a temporary interim measure, in the areas where the Iraqi government controls the battle space, for selected ministries that are critical for the Iraqi Government credibility Iraqi military units should provide force protection for CPI, BSA and the affected IGs to carry out anticorruption activities.

The Embassy and MNFI should press the Iraqi Government to as an interim measure in cases not involved with MOI, national police units should provide force protection for CPI, BSA and the affected IGs to carry out anticorruption activities.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to provide CPI, BSA, and IGs armored vehicles, vests, and firearms and PSDs for them and their families as a demonstration of its seriousness in support for anticorruption efforts.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to provide CPI the resources for a tactical capability to operate in the red zone.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to enact legislation to allow CPI to carry firearms and the power to arrest.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to enact legislation to allow IGs and BSA to carry firearms.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to provide for each IG department, CPI, and BSA a special unit designed to mitigate threats to the families of investigators such as modifications of homes, safety studies, communications, and other such measures.

The Embassy should insist that those ministries that are controlled by militias should be targeted by tactical units and other police assets to regain access and freedom of movement within. Where ties with armed groups can be established employees should be removed.

A Liaison Officer from MNFI with access to those capable of ordering maneuver elements should be made available to the IRMO Office of Accountability and Transparency to process requests for assistance in a timely manner.

A number of ministries have become so dangerous to enter that anticorruption efforts are impossible. Some of these ministries are critical to the success of the Iraqi Government.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to focus its enforcement on the Ministries of Oil, Electricity, Transportation, and Health providing special protection for the investigators of the IGs, BSA, and CPI. In the case of the IGs, they should be provided new positions in other ministries after the close of the program.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to establish an IG swap program to move IG investigators from one ministry to another after sensitive investigations or a set period of time.

Each of the current institutions is weak and incapable to attacking the issues of corruption in a practical manner. Cooperation between the institutions in large measure is no more than formal requests which are either complied with or ignored.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi Government to establish interagency task forces to fight corruption as it applies to certain ministries or types of corruption. These task forces would consist of CPI, IG, BSA with National, local or MOI Internal Affairs police.

INL and other US funding agencies should revisit its material support the institutions with a bias in favor of tactical support to CPI, the IGs, and BSA front loading support that will allow these agencies to operate in a hostile environment.

The effort on the part of both the Iraqi Government and the US Embassy has been Baghdad-centric and Central Ministry-centric leaving the leadership divorced from ground truth of corruption in Iraq. Further it has ignored the coming title wave of newly empowered local governments whore capability to avoid or confront corruption is suspect.

The newly create positions of local Accountability and Transparency officers currently about to be staffed should be combined with the Rule of Law teams and both should be given the mandate to assess, strengthen, and monitor local corruption enforcement efforts. To do this the Embassy should press to have priority for protection escorts to provide the access to critical elements such as CPI, BSA, and IG offices as well as local governments and ministry branch officers.

Force protection and transportation for an assessment of local offices of the IG, BSA, and CPI should be provided Office of Accountability and Transparency should be supported by MNFI.

The Courts are proving inadequate in investigating and prosecuting case due to outdated criminal procedure laws

The JACC should include a senior member of the HJC and the CCCI to provide insight not only on needed procedural reforms but a conduit for direct assistance and the building of an anticorruption capability within the court system beyond the CCCI.

The disregard of the law by senior Iraqi officials is undercutting the anticorruption effort.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi government to remove from office all Iraqi officials who refuse to fill out the financial disclosure requirements.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi government to remove from office all Iraqi that refuse to comply with CPA Order #57 which requires the reporting of those actions that are crimes under Iraqi Law.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi government to account for those ministers and legal offices that refuse to serve arrest warrants to their employees or respond to requests for information from the courts.

There are some parts of the Iraqi law that are encouraging the abuse of the corruption laws.

The Embassy should press the Iraqi government to repeal Article 136 B of the Iraqi Criminal Procedure Code and RCC 38-1993.

There has bee considerable disinformation on the roles of the anticorruption institutions and their capabilities. For example, CPI investigates corruption cases and collects enough evidence to support each element of a charge and then must turn the case to the primary investigative body the courts. It has no discretion as to what cases it can or can not accept. From that point, any decision made in regard to such cases will be the court’s call and CPI has no influence over the court system. However, many Iraqis and Americans, public and officials, believe that CPI is the one who makes the referral of the cases to the criminal court, arrest, prosecution, and whatever comes thereafter. For that, CPI gets blamed for whatever decision made by the court.

This report should be distributed beyond the anticorruption staff to others within the Embassy and MNF-I

Sensitive, but not classified.  Its interesting that as I go through my daily work in my “day job” I am often made privy to this type of information and usually never write about it until it hits the public media.  Its also interesting that the FAS was the organization that published it.  But I say again, it is not at all surprising to see reports of corruption in the Iraqi government.  As someone has said, “you may be able to change the color of the horse, but its still a horse.”

The subject of Iraqi corruption is now also discussed at the Washington Post,  Ex-Investigator Details Iraqi Corruption - He Tells House Panel That Maliki’s Government Thwarted Probes written by Glenn Kessler.

Who, me?  

Well folks, Doug Farah is writing about this today on the Counterterrorism Blog,  Corruption and the War on Terror, and on his own blog… Nothing undermines the legitimacy of a government than widespread corruption and the tolerance of corruption by that government’s backers…Corruption and impunity from that corruption are cancers that destroy one’s allies and strengthens ones enemies…

Its not very surprising though…As someone has said, “you may be able to change the color of the horse, but its still a horse.”

Aftergood, al Maliki, FAS, Glenn Kessler, government corruption, sensitive but not classified, Washington Post Sphere: Related Content

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While focus has been on the drug wars and illegal immigration problems of Mexico, little has been written about the resurgence of Marxist rebel activity. Financed by kidnappings of businessmen, the EPR, has targeted Mexico’s oil and natural gas infrastructure, and other commerical facilities.

Prosecutors say the Ejército Popular Revolucionario, or Popular Revolutionary Army (PRA), a Marxist guerrilla group, has committed at least 88 kidnappings since 1999, collecting millions of dollars in ransom.Just this year, the rebels have taken at least four people hostage, including two prominent businessmen and the relative of a reputed drug dealer, law enforcement officials and anticrime advocates say.

Previously, these Mexican Marxists had kept their activities to kidnappings (which is bad enough), but the recent escalation adds still another concern for the Calderon government.

The Popular Revolutionary Army or Ejército Popular Revolucionario is a leftist guerrilla

Mexico’s attorney general Eduardo Medina Mora recently said that “The E.P.R. is a guerrilla organization with a political vision of taking power, and in this sense, has carried out violent acts.” Not suprisingly, this worries the government.

These attacks that caused losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars occurred in July and September were simultaneous bombings of critical junctures of pipelines. These caused disrupted gas service to several factories and businesses. Combined, the attacks caused the temprary closing of hundreds of factories across Medxico (some for as much as a week). Even the Volkswagen, Nissan and Honda plants were affected. It should also come as no surprise that these attacks have been done with the basics, ammonium nitrate and fuel oil, then detonated them with plastic explosives wired to digital watches and batteries.

Previously considered somewhat dormant and harmless, the PRA has its roots in Oaxaca (Previous posts regarding Oaxaca and the problems in that southern Mexican state).

…founded there in 1994 when 14 small insurgent groups banded together. The core leadership came from an extremist Marxist organization known by the acronym Procup, the Spanish initials for the Clandestine Revolutionary Workers’ Party-Union of the People.Founded in the 1970s, Procup waged a campaign of kidnappings and executions against other leftists in the 1980s.The Popular Revolutionary Army made its presence known in June 1996. At an event in Guerrero State commemorating the first anniversary of a massacre by the state police, masked guerrillas in the group read a manifesto calling for a socialist revolution. Many leftist politicians believed at first that they were government provocateurs.

“Most of the leadership is Oaxacan,” said a law enforcement official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about a continuing investigation (and maybe because he has fears for his life).

As discussed in this article:

“These bombings make it clear that after 40 years the military insurgents continue to exist and that they have become strong,” he said. “More than anything else, this gives the government a motive to start up the dirty war again.”

See a discussion of “Mexico’s Dirty War” here and here.

As far as I can see, this represents an added instability in our neighbors South of the Border. A few days ago, a new acquaintance asked me what I thought about the “goings on” in Mexico. One of my comments was a statement of my fear of the growing economic divisions in Mexico, and a strong likelihood of a socialist revolution.

But Mexico seems to be a complex problem, with the combination of an ongoing and ragin drug war between the cartels, law enforcement and the Mexican military, as well as growing economic unrest. As written on the Strategy Page:

Statistics Say It Is War - September 24, 2007: Mexico really is a country in the middle of a war. That’s the real story behind recent statistical studies analyzing violence in Mexico which reported that “homicides, kidnapping, and arms trafficking” has increased this year within the country by 25 percent. Overall, “gangland” type executions have increased dramatically since 2001. It’s not that these executions didn’t take place in 2001 – around 110 were reported. However, for the January to June 2007 period, 1,588 took place.

Despite the benign neglect of the U.S. government to what appears to be obvious unrest and instability in Mexico, we are facing to our south a hotbed for social and religious terrorism. I continue to maintain that one of the major threats to U.S. National Security lies directly south of us in Mexico…a Third World country.

border security, Calderon, Dirty War, ejercito popular revolucionario, oil attacks, PRA Sphere: Related Content

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And now, returning to the more serious business at hand (apologies for the non-PC diversion).  I’m sure it was a plot from a science fiction movie that I once saw.  Now, real life and science fiction have linked.  An experiment on a recent Space Shuttle mission proved that space flight makes bacteria up to three times more deadly.  The results of the experiment showed that  “the bacteria sent to space had altered the way they express genes to make proteins and become more virulent.“  When it comes to possible bacterial contamination resulting from a Space Shuttle mission, it becomes “fair game” for Storm Blog.

We already know that the effects of space flight on the human physiology is profound.  This includes a weakening of the bones and muscles, as well as an impairment of the immune system.  But one experiment conducted on board STS-115 in 2006 showed some startling effects.

Researchers led by Cheryl Nickerson, associate professor at the Arizona State University Biodesign Institute, found that Salmonella grown during space-shuttle mission STS-115 in 2006 underwent major changes in the expression of 167 genes. When administered to mice back on Earth, the bacteria proved many times more deadly than an equivalent strain grown on the ground.

One of the key findings of this experiment was that one gene of the salmonella bacteria controlled most of the molecular changes that occurred.  What are the implications?   Apparently, they aren’t too clear.  While not something to “worry about” in the short term, because it is impossible to completely sterilize spacecraft (HA!  Little do they know about something I know), because people carry so many bacteria on their bodies, the problem may be one of concern when we start dealing with longer space journies.  For example, the “manned mission to Mars, which has been proposed by President Bush, would take about three years.”  Parallel experiements were performed on the ground with not surprising results.

Compared with these bacteria, those grown in space displayed major changes in the activity of 167 genes and in the production of 73 proteins. Lower concentrations of the space bacteria caused lethal infections in mice, and the space bacteria killed more mice sooner than those grown on Earth.

This experience (and the experiment) also shows the possibilities of changes in the human body during and as a result of space travel.  According to Jeanne Becker, associate director of the National Space Biomedical Research Institute, in Houston:

Spaceflight also alters the genetic activity of human cells. “We evolved in a one-gravity environment,” says Becker. “There are fundamental changes when you take gravity away.” One study showed that spaceflight caused changes in the expression of more than 1,600 genes in human kidney cells grown in culture. Becker says that many more studies of the molecular effects of space conditions on cells are forthcoming, as researchers take advantage of the International Space Station…

…”The fact that at least one nasty bug becomes demonstrably more virulent in spaceflight introduces a hazard that might before have been underappreciated,” says Kim Prisk, a professor of medicine at the NASA Lab at the University of Califormia, San Diego. “It does make one wonder about how aggressive the medical treatment of an infected subject in space would need to be.”

Shuttle Brings Space-grown Strep Bacteria Back For Study
Science Daily — When the space shuttle Endeavour touched down at the Kennedy Space Center August 21, University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston microbiology and immunology department chairman David Niesel was waiting by the runway, looking forward to a reunion with some of its passengers. 

Space Shuttle Endeavour landed Aug. 21, 2007, at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The perfect landing capped a construction and supply mission to the International Space Station. (Credit: NASA/Chuck Tintera)

The space travelers Niesel was meeting weren’t astronauts. They were Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria, members of a species commonly found in the human upper respiratory tract but in this case riding in sealed experimental containers in the shuttle’s mid-deck.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is what’s known as an “opportunistic bacterium,” one that’s normally harmless but always ready to exploit the right circumstances and cause full-blown disease. For infants, the elderly and others with weaker-than-normal immune systems — possibly including astronauts on long space flights — it can be quite dangerous.

Related Articles:
Germs in space: tougher and deadlier
Space bugs become more dangerous
Germs become deadlier in space, ASU team finds

Other information on “It came from Outer Space”

Transcript from Surveyor Crater and Surveyor III
 I always thought the most significant thing that we ever found on the whole goddamn Moon was that little bacteria who came back and lived and nobody ever said shit about it. — Pete Conrad 

Living Bacteria From Space
Evidence of living bacterial cells entering the Earth’s upper atmosphere from space has come from a joint project involving Indian and UK scientists.

The first positive identification of extraterrestrial microbial life will be reported on Sunday, 29 July 2001 at the Astrobiology session of the 46th Annual SPIE meeting in San Diego, USA by Professor Chandra Wickramasinghe of Cardiff University. He will speak on behalf of an international team led by Professor Jayant Narlikar, Director of the Inter-Universities Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics in Pune, India.

New evidence of living bacteria from space

Beam me up Scotty!

Arizona State University Biodesign Institute, Cheryl Nickerson, Jeanne Becker, Kim Prisk, mission to mars, National Space Biomedical Research Institute, Pete Conrad, salmonella Sphere: Related Content

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I came across this in my local paper and followed the link to no less than the Village Voice.  The author,  Gustavo Arellano asked “semi-Mexicans” to write the nicknames that describe their mixed-Mexican heritage.  He receive alot of responses.  Among the least offensive are listed below (the very non-PC visual from the Voice also)…

Half-Canadian: Canexican

Half-Croatian: Cro-Mex

Half-Czech: Czecano, Czex-Mex, Czexican, Mexislovakian

Half-Hawaiian: Pineapple salsa

Half-Jewish: Jalapeño bagel, Jumex (also the name of a delicious Mexican fruit-nectar drink), Kahlua-jewa, kosher burrito, Mexi-Jew

Half-Scotch: McRiguez

I’ll leave the rest for y’all to ruminate over.  I didn’t write it…all I did was pick what I thought were the least offensive. 

But we are, after all, all Americans. Village Voice

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A new cartoon controversy is about to explode in Bangladesh. Although moderates demanded a ban on the protests on grounds that they were ‘politically motivated’ Islamist groups are continuing to protest the publication of the cartoon, calling it blasphemous. The country is now under a state of emergency. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a “surge” in violence.

As discussed in Animesh Roul’s post at the Counterterorrism Blog, In the Name of God: Islamists Spearheaded Violence over Cartoon in Bangladesh “…hundreds of Islamic hardliners including activists of Hizbut Tahrir, Islami Oikya Andolon, Chhatra Mukti Andolon, and Islami Shasantantra Andolon descended to the streets and later resorted to violence and arson to protest the publication of a cartoon that allegedly made fun of Mohammed, in a vernacular daily…”

The cartoon appeared on September 17th, and was titled, “Naam” (Name).” Even though the publisher almost immediately apologized and asked that people ‘forgive the mistake’, violence erupted in the National capital on September 21.

The following is the dialog of the cartoon:

Boy, what’s your name? My name is Abu.
It is customary to put Mohammed in front of the name.
What is your father’s name? Mohammed Abu.
What is that on your lap? Mohammed cat.

The cartoonist has been jailed, and Bagladesh’s home minister has said the cartoonist, Arifur Rahman, had hurt the sentiments of the people. It would not be out of the question to opine that this incident will lead to Islamic fundamentalist violence in Bangladesh where Islam is the state religion. The country’s religious traditions are moderate, but some people believe that consevratives are becoming more influential. For the geographically challenged, Bangladesh is sandwched within India, another hot bed of increasing Islamic terrorism.

Map of Bangladesh

Also cross posted on Real Clear Politics.

Check out Right Truth’s Sunday Reading List September 23, 2007

Islamic Fundamentalism Sphere: Related Content

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There’s a plague outbreak among prairie dogs near Flagstaff Az.  So  a flea bites the dog, and then the flea bites a human.  That’s how the 1^st case of human plague since 2000 happened.  Its called Yersinia Pestis…its a zoonotic disease, like the ones being studied by the new National Bio Agro-Defense lab (see previous post, NBAF Update - Research Triangle Citizens Raise Questions - the people of North Carolina may not want it, the country needs it).

Anyway, it seems that the Arizona State Department of Health Services is concerned that the one case could signal a broader outbreak among humans, although the plague is usually confined to higher elevations (above 4500 feet).

“The recent appearance of plague activity in two northern counties has us concerned that we may see plague in other areas as well,” said Craig Levy of the health department.“We are beginning another cycle of plaguelike activity,” he added.Cases grow in isolated or small clusters, said Levy, who predicted the new cycle will focus on northern Arizona counties.There have been 48 cases of plague reported in Arizona during the past 30 years; eight of them resulted in death.

As a result, people are being warning to avoid contact with animal burrows and stay away from dead animals (not gonna see this “city boy” pokin’ around dead animals - besides that’s what the turkey vultures are for, aren’t they?).

          

 Symptoms include fever, chills, headache, weakness, muscle pain, and swollen lymph glands in the groin, armpits, or limbs. The disease can become septicemic, which means it spreads through the bloodstream.

Anyway, the doctors are treating the Apache County woman with antibiotics.  Yersinia Pestis is a vector borne disease  which is a disease in which the pathogenic microorganism is transmitted from an infected individual to another individual by an arthropod or other agent, sometimes with other animals serving as intermediary hosts.  See further information:

• Current Status of Vector-borne Diseases around the World;
• Environmental Parameters That Affect the Incidence of Vector-borne Diseases;
• Models That Predict Changes in the Incidence of Vector-borne Diseases Attributable to Climate Change;
• Possible Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Specific Vector-borne Diseases; and
• Programs for Surveillance, Treatment, and Control of Vector-borne Diseases.

This is what the CDC says about it.  More on plague from the CDC.  Additional plague facts.

Risk: Wild rodents in certain areas around the world are infected with plague. Outbreaks in people still occur in rural communities or in cities. They are usually associated with infected rats and rat fleas that live in the home. In the United States, the last urban plague epidemic occurred in Los Angeles in 1924-25. Since then, human plague in the United States has occurred as mostly scattered cases in rural areas (an average of 10 to 15 persons each year). Globally, the World Health Organization reports 1,000 to 3,000 cases of plague every year. In North America, plague is found in certain animals and their fleas from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains, and from southwestern Canada to Mexico. Most human cases in the United States occur in two regions: 1) northern New Mexico, northern Arizona, and southern Colorado; and 2) California, southern Oregon, and far western Nevada. Plague also exists in Africa, Asia, and South America (see map).

Wanna see what a flea looks like when its engorged with blood?  OK, take a look, thanks to the CDC.

Male Xenopsylla cheopis (oriental rat flea) engorged with blood. This flea is the primary vector of plague in most large plague epidemics in Asia, Africa, and South America. Both male and female fleas can transmit the infection.

So, please don’t think that there isn’t a need for a Lab to study animal borne or zoonotic diseases.

As usual, this post is cross posted on Real Clear Politics. National Bio Agro Defense Lab, NBAF, Yersinia Pestis, zoonotic disease

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“If there is one national lesson that we learned in the Yom Kippur War, it is that we should not be deceived by misleading periods of calm,” said Defense Minister Ehud Barak at his National Remembrance Ceremony speech.  A reminder, if one was needed, was the capture of Hamas terrorist  Nihad Shkeira who had his suicide belt in his apartment in Tel Aviv. 

  Photo: Dudi Vaknin

“Even the Yom Kippur War was a war of soldiers and commanders who provided cover for the leadership’s failures with their hearts and their heroism. We must not follow the vision of a fictitious moment, the spirit of Israel must be prepared at every moment as if the next war is around the corner,” Barak added.

Lessons learned in the Yom Kippur War are still relevant today, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen Gabi Ashkenazi said at the opening of the main ceremony in honor of soldiers who lost their lives defending the country 34 years ago.  

“A lesson of war for me is an order to look sensibly at reality and not to follow the heart’s wishes… Even at the beginning of Israel’s sixtieth year of independence, we knew that we were fighting for our existence and our right to achieve independence in the state of Israel,” said Ashkenazi at Mt. Herzl on Sunday.

The lesson is one that is very clear.  Whatever or whoever Palestinians may be, they are linked in their desire to eliminate the sovereign State of Israel.  Perhaps it is because of my spending 10 hours praying this Yom Kippur that the imperative of the unwavering support for Israel must remain intact.  This, despite deniers who both claim that Israel as a Jewish state shoudl not exist, as well as those blind fools who continue to deny that the Holocaust ever happened.

So it is that Israeli police foiled a suicide bomber on eve of Yom Kippur in Tel Aviv.

An army spokeswoman said Mahd Ashur was arrested in the occupied West Bank town of Nablus on Friday as the result of intelligence following the capture there earlier in the day of a leader of the Islamist movement Hamas.”

Hamas identified that man as Nihad Shkeirat, 35.

A military official described him as the Hamas military commander in the Ein Beit Elma refugee camp and said he was connected to a local cell that was plotting an imminent suicide attack in Israel.

“After his capture, the terrorist who was to have carried out the attack, Mahd Ashur … took police to an apartment in Tel Aviv where an explosives belt was stored,” the army spokeswoman said.

It is typical, is it not, that the Arabs, in the form of Hamas, would think nothing of attacking Israel on Judaism’s most Holy Day. And yet, as I mentione drecently, were anyone to attack a Muslim city or place on Ramadan, the entire world would be in uprising and outcry. As long as this double standard is allowed to exist, then there can be no Peace in Israel, or the Middle East.  “Do not be deceived by periods of misleading calm.”  The risk exists each and every day.  Never forget!  This point is made clear by the discovered Hamas plan to sabotage a peace summit scheduled for November.

Hamas is under orders to perpetrate a large terrorist attack in an Israeli city to undermine the peace summit scheduled for November, senior defense officials said Saturday, hours after a Yom Kippur suicide attack was thwarted by an arrest and the capture of an explosives belt in Tel Aviv.

Security officials said intelligence on the imminent attack was obtained by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) from the head of Hamas in Nablus, Niad Shakrit, who was arrested late Thursday night by the IDF’s Duvdevan undercover unit, ending a four-day operation in the West Bank city.

Check out related post at Take Our Country Back,  ISF Thwart Mass Kidnapping In Nineveh Province

As usual, this post is cross posted on Real Clear Politics.

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Intel researchers are working on robots with sensors to help them determine the size and shape of things, and to ”improve the ability of robots to grasp objects in unstructured human environments.“  In one experiment, the robot sensed which of three bottles were empty and eliminated it.  The implication of this work is that robotics may become more practical for the home (and factory).

This video illustrates a robotic hand that has electric-field proximity sensors in each finger. When an object is placed between the hand’s fingers and thumb, the sensors detect a change in the electric field. Algorithms determine, in real time, how the fingers should respond to the shape and position of the object.  The incorporation of pre-touch into a robotic arm will allow it to sense the shape and size of unfamiliar objects at close range and react accordingly.

The way that Smith’s pre-touch sensors work is fairly straightforward. Each sensor consists of simple electrodes that can be made of copper and aluminum foil; in the case of a robotic hand, an electrode is at the tip of the thumb and each finger. When the researchers apply an oscillating voltage to the electrode in, say, the thumb, it creates an electric field that in turn induces a current in the electrodes of the fingers. When a conducting object–metal, or anything with water in it, such as an apple or a person–comes close to the sensors, it reduces the induced current in the fingers’ electrodes. This change in the electric field is detected by the sensors. Specialized algorithms process the data and instruct the robotic fingers to move around the object appropriately.

Robotics can also incorporate video and laser range finders to enhance their applicaiton. Such work has been performed under funding from DARPA in robotic cars for the Urban and Grand Challenges. But as with all innovation and research, there are other scientists who will find fault. This area is no different.

“One of the major problems in robotics has to do with the ability of a robot to interact and touch and feel and manipulate an object,” says Oussama Khatib, a professor of computer science at Stanford, in Palo Alto, CA. Khatib says that while Intel’s research looks like a promising approach to close-proximity sensing, it still needs to be integrated more completely in robots. “This is something that is important and significant if we can prove its robustness and its ability to be integrated with robotic systems and human environment in an effective way,” he says. Khatib adds that future proximity-sensing robots will most likely have a number of sensors that measure different aspects of their environment, which will require algorithms that can integrate all the disparate signals.

One thing is certain, this is still another example of innovation in robotics that shows the inappropriateness of Zeno, the toy robot supported by the Texas Emerging Technology Fund.

Related articles:

•	Surgical Robots Get a Sense of Touch 12/18/2006
•	Sensors Without Batteries 05/15/2006
•	Stanford’s New Driverless Car 06/15/2007

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The Atlantic hurricane season usually peaks about now.  Most of the 2007 landfalls have been south of the U.S.  But the nearly overnight development of Humberto last week reminds us of the sheer power and unpredictability of Mother Nature.   Having moved from one hurricane strike point to another gives me a personal view that has gone from wonderment to concern.  And the parallels of response to natural and terror events are revealing.  The 2007 Atlantic tropical season is already a historic one in at least a couple of ways.

It is the only season on record when two hurricanes have reached landfall at Category 5 strength. Hurricanes Dean and Felix each made landfall with winds exceeding 155 mph.

Neither made landfall anywhere near the U.S., so Americans might easily forget that feat. But it will not be so easily forgotten by the folks in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula near Dean’s strike point or the isolated villagers in northeast Nicaragua where Felix came ashore.

The 2007 Atlantic tropical season also produced a remarkable storm Sept. 12-13 when Humberto exploded from a disorganized mass of clouds to a Category 1 hurricane in less than 18 hours before coming ashore in eastern Texas. No Atlantic tropical cyclone had ever intensified that quickly near landfall.

Recent post-Katrina responses to hurricanes point to a dramtic improvement in our readiness.  But lets start with my wonderment about storms and violent weather.  On the morning of September 4, 2004, Hurricane Frances had struck a glancing blow on the south shore of Long Island.  That day, I wrote:

One of the “little luxuries” of my life is that quick hop of 15 minutes or less from my home to the oceanfront. This morning after breakfast, I wanted to go to the beach to witness the shear beautiful power of Mother Nature, so we drove down there.

Once parked, we walked toward the ocean. This particular part of Jones Beach is about a ¼ mile walk from the boardwalk to the shoreline. We immediately heard the dull, but distinctly noticeable roar of the waves crashing. And then we saw water pooled on the beach. The awesome power of Hurricane Frances has already shown itself. Clearly at high tide, the storm surge had driven the waves and water nearly all the way up to the boardwalk. We were able to walk around the pool of ocean water on the outer perimeter…all of the sand was still moist under our feet.

At the shoreline, there was immediate exhilaration when I saw them…waves rolling in toward shore and crashing, one after the other. Even though there were a few people on the beach, we stood and heard no noise but the continuous rumble of the waves. Its been a while since I’ve seen so many waves of such ferocity hitting the beach…probably a frequency of a dozen per minute…sea spray rising…a few surfers attempting to show their little used skills (rarely do we get surfable waves of this type…these were all about 8-10 feet high before they broke). I’m certain that the ocean will churn even more in the next 12-18 hours.

There is no question that the effects of the storm on people in its path will be anything but beautiful, but Mother Nature is extraordinary, even in the raging fury of a hurriance like Frances.

Poetic, and perhaps prophetic about the sheer power of a hurricane and the effect of storm surge on a shore line.  The history of violent storms and hurricanes on Long Island is filled with tragedy and destruction.  A quick review of the 2007 season shows how lucky the U.S., and especially the Gulf Coast, still reeling from the ravaging of Katrina and Rita have been. 

Currently, there are two storm systems brewing that are being watched by the National Hurricane Center.

The low pressure that is sitting over the eastern Gulf is expected to develop into a tropical system over the next couple of days. The storm will intensify before striking the Gulf Coast as early as Saturday.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports the system is centered about 115 miles west of Tampa, Fla.  Thunderstorms are wrapping around the center of the low; however, pockets of dry air are keeping the system disorganized. It is possible the system will be designated a subtropical storm later today as a moist southerly flow feeds into the low.

Light winds and the warm water of the Gulf will allow the system to become better organized as it moves northwest with thunderstorms wrapping tighter around the center of circulation. The low could develop into the 10th tropical depression of the year within the next 12-24 hours.

Rain, gusty winds and above-normal tides will spread toward the Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coastlines as the storm develops. All interests in the Gulf and along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to South Texas should closely monitor the storm’s development.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center forecasters feel the developing storm could make landfall on Saturday morning, somewhere between Mobile Bay and the Texas-Louisiana state line.

The U.S. Department of the Interior’s Minerals Management Service reported Wednesday offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf have begun evacuating platforms and rigs in the path of the developing system; however, there has been no reported decrease in the production of oil and natural gas in the Gulf.

Looking at the history is important too, especially when it comes to Gulf Coast and the Long Island Coastline.  Long Island and the New York City area have had a sporadic history of significant and major storms.

In 1821, when a major hurricane made a direct hit on Manhattan, stunned residents recorded sea levels rising as fast as thirteen feet in a single hour down where there’s now Battery Park City. Everything was flooded south of Canal Street. The storm struck at low tide, though, and, according to Queens College professor Nicholas Coch, a coastal geologist who calls himself a “forensic hurricanologist,” that’s “the only thing that saved the city.”

Then there’s Hog Island. The pig-shaped mile-long barrier island was off the southern coast of the Rockaways. After the Civil War, developers built saloons and bathhouses on it, and Hog Island became a Gilded Age version of the Hamptons. The city’s political bosses and business elite used the place as a kind of beachy annex of Tammany Hall. That all ended on the night of August 23, 1893, when a terrifying Category 2 hurricane made landfall on the swamp that is now JFK airport.

 Statistically, the New York area is hit by one of these monster storms every 75 years or so; “it’s just a matter of time,” says Lee. After Hog Island, the next big one came a little ahead of schedule, the “Long Island Express” of 1938, with 183-mile-per-hour winds. At the time, Long Island wasn’t a densely populated suburban sprawl. The same hurricane today would cause incredible havoc. Hurricane Carol, a Category 3 storm that hit eastern Long Island and came ashore in Connecticut in 1954, mostly missed the city (even as it inundated downtown Providence, Rhode Island, under twelve feet of water).

And by the way, here is a link to another article discussing the vulnerability of Long Island to hurricanes.

Now, the ludicrous part of this story is that a few months after Katrina hit New Orleans, a question was asked of how Long Island would be evacuated (given the difficulties in getting people out of harm’s way in Louisiana during the onslaught of Katrina) in the event of a terrorist attack on New York City.  That’s right, I said, “terorrist attack.”  The Emergency Response answer boggled my mind and those of my friends who listened as they said, “Well, Mr. Warning, the Army Corps of Engineers says that the storm surge from a Cat. 3 hurricane would only go about 2 miles in from the shoreline.”  Now, remember that the question was evacuation from a CBRN attack, and not evacuation.  So here is a link to a story written right after Katrina but before the Emergency Response meeting just described…Evaluating a What-If Case: New York City’s Evacuation.  The point of note here is that the article discusses evacuation of New York City, not Long Island.  One of my most lasting memories of the attacks of September 11th and the aftermath, was that Long Island was literally cut-off from the mainland for days.  No cars or trucks were allowed to cross the bridges or go through the tunnels.  So in reality, there is no evacuation plan to Long Island.  Luckily (for me), my life no longer depends on a non-existent evac. plan.

Are emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes?  Maybe.  Are we ready to deal with a mass casualty terrorist attack?  I dunno…maybe.  Don’t want to find out.  Unfortunately, we won’t know if we’re ready until its time to know.

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This morning’s email from Stratfor had a questionnaire (and a subscription promotion) asking about the outlook for the coming months in Africa, Russia, Iraq and Pakistan.  Making predictions is easy.  Stating them publicly and standing by them is quite another.  FWIW, here are my topline answers.  The answers lie not so much in insight, but in objectivity…and clearly not in rose colored glasses.

My answers to these questions are marked.  Since most of these subjects have been covered here on this blog.  I will likely add some context during the day

·  Is the United States headed for conflict in Africa? Yes	Yes	No
·  Will U.S.-Russian relations improve in the coming months? NO	Yes	No
·  Will the United States pull out of Iraq? NO	Yes	No
·  Is the military losing its grip on Pakistan? YES	Yes	No

 

Africa
The United States is banding all of its African military operations into a new, separate command called AFRICOM. While AFRICOM officially will help only states that request assistance and participate in counter-terrorism activities, a reorganized U.S. presence in Africa cannot help but attract attention — and foes.

 

Storm comment:  From Morocco and Algiers all the way to Somalia, al Qaeda and the Islamic jihad is spreading.  That is a documented fact.   The emergence of al Qaeda in Algeria with the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)–now known as “Al-Qaida’s Committee in the Islamic Maghreb” claiming responsibility for the bombings in Algiers as well as seeking to foment violence in neighboring Morocco was discussed in the Counterterrorism Blog in April.  Additional detail was provided in War on Terrorism: Missing the Obvious

 

Russia
Russia is in the midst of a leadership transition, even as opportunities to expand its international influence are greater than ever. The only question is how Moscow will contain its internal chaos while still taking advantage of the United States’ problems in Iraq. But then, that assumes that the chaos is not part of Moscow’s plan.

 

Storm comment:  The new Russian Premier,  Viktor Zubkov has pledged to further bolster the national defence industry and fight rampant corruption, as Parliament overwhelmingly endorsed his appointment.  This comes following the saber rattling and muscle flexing of Vladimir Putin.

Iraq
Gen. David Petraeus has made his recommendations to Congress on the conduct of the war, and the Bush administration has adopted them. There are now two theaters in this war: in Iraq, where jihadists will make every effort to disrupt the state, while the U.S. military attempts to carry out the same mission with fewer troops; and in Washington, where partisan politics will continue to create a battleground in the months leading up to the 2008 elections.

Storm comment:  With all due respect to General Petraeus, I remain skeptical that a unified and democratic Iraq will emerge from all of this fighting.  And I do believe that the U.S. will have a presence in Iraq for many years to come.

Pakistan
The government of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf is failing – and thus exposing all the ethnic, linguistic, ideological and geographic splits in a nuclear-armed state that plays host to al Qaeda. The nature of the Pakistani government, as well as the entire Afghan front in the war on terrorism, hangs in the balance.

Storm comment:  I believe that my post from yesterday says it all,  Musharraf’s a “Dead Man” (Maybe Literally)

At the end of 2006, I made my own Year-end observations — 2006.  Soon we will see. 

The answers lie not so much in insight, but in objectivity…not in rose colored glasses.

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