StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Stratfor Forecast - Q4/06

I do not subscribe to the Stratfor Reports. Often, I wish that I did. The Q4/06 forecast will be released shortly. I was able to excerpt this (note that my opinions were "x’d" before I read ahead):

· Will Iran adopt a more reconciliatory approach?	Yes No
· Will China welcome foreign banks?	Yes No
· Is al-Qaeda less of a priority for the US?	Yes No
· Will the radical leftist movement in Latin America expand?	Yes No

Iran
In the fourth quarter, Iran — particularly its relations with Washington and the reactions of its Arab neighbors — will be the driving force in the Middle East. There are signs that Tehran could encourage a new series of militant attacks inside Iraq in the near future. At the same time, there are indications of a resurgence of militants in the region, spurred by both al Qaeda and Iran.

Chinese Economy
On Dec. 11, China opens its banking sector to foreign competition as part of its commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, as that date nears, Beijing will issue numerous regulations that will actually discourage foreign competition. China will attempt to follow the letter of the WTO requirements, but will violate the spirit of the WTO’s intentions.

Al-Qaeda Targets
U.S. President George W. Bush is promoting his Republican base with a clear focus on national security issues and is ramping up efforts to capture another high-value al Qaeda target to help ensure the Republican hold on both chambers of Congress. This is going to be supported through a behind-the-scenes-deal between the United States and Pakistan.

Latin America
The radical leftist movement is at or near its peak. Four key elections in Latin America will reveal how the region is beginning to turn away from the Chavez-led radical left, and move toward a centrist-left model that looks more like a European-style social democracy.