StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

Its now four weeks since the presidential election in Mexico, and despite conservative Felipe Calderón being declared the winner with a margin of 0.6% (that’s .006) of the more than 41 million votes cast, the results are still in limbo…the leftist contender Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to maintain voting irregularity (fraud) and is lobbying for a full, vote by vote recount.

López Obrador calls for sit-ins on capital’s plaza, boulevard
…Official results from Mexico’s autonomous Federal Electoral Institute have López Obrador, 52, losing the election to conservative Felipe Calderón by just 244,000 votes, or 0.6 percent, of nearly 42 million cast.

In response to those comments, some business owners here shook their heads in disagreement.

"Of course this is all about him living in Los Pinos," said baker Israel Melendez Lopez, referring to the woody presidential residence.

Others echoed similar sentiments. Ana Reyna and her son were selling pro-Lopez Obrador T-shirts and flags. “People are tired of this. They’re not buying anything anymore. They just want to get on with their lives, including us…"

When you see pictures of these rallies…all of those people.

Another giant crowd turns out in Mexico City to call for recount
…The blocking of Reforma, a giant boulevard that stretches across Mexico City’s central corridor, came after a record 1.2 million gathered by midday in the Zocalo, the city’s historic central square, to hear López Obrador.

The turnout was less than the 2 million López Obrador had promised two weeks ago, when he brought 1.1 million followers to the Zocalo. But police said it was the largest demonstration in Mexico’s history, and analysts said it was enough to lend momentum to López Obrador’s case being considered by Mexico’s federal election tribunal, which must declare a winner by Sept. 6…

We’ll have to wait and see how this situation unfolds in the next month. I’m just not that confident that what is peaceful now, will remain peaceful. And any unrest south of the border has to be a concern of ours.

López Obrador and his followers accuse the institute of partiality in favor of Calderón and claim the vote was marred by widespread fraud. Calderón, 43, the candidate of President Vicente Fox’s National Action Party, or PAN, argues that his win was clean and that a recount is unnecessary.

The dispute is in the hands of the seven-member Federal Electoral Tribunal, which has until Sept. 6 to either declare a winner or annul the election and call another. Many legal experts say the total recount demanded by López Obrador would be impossible under election laws.

"The matter at hand is whether the differences we Mexicans have with respect to the election are to be resolved with protests and pressures or with reason and the law," Calderón said in an appearance before the electoral judges shortly before López Obrador spoke. "We believe in the power of the law."

But López Obrador, who despite polling 35 percent of the vote claimed in an interview to have won the presidency "by a majority," argues that a complete recount is the only viable solution to avoid long-term social turmoil.

"That is the rational and sensible decision," López Obrador said Sunday. "That is the political and legal solution that best suits Mexico and democracy."

"If they shut off the democratic paths, only submission or violence remain. For that reason we have to defend democracy and make it worthwhile…"

This is a very volatile situation. With Obrador calling for massive protests and sit-ins to clog the main arteries in and out of Mexico City until a full recount is done, I think we are headed to a bad outcome here. The question is how long people will tolerate this dispute.

Leftist challenger urges sit-ins in Mexico City
Mass protests aimed at forcing a recount
…"I want to reiterate that I am not ambitious nor vulgar, and money doesn’t interest me," Lopez Obrador said. “Power only makes sense when you put yourself at the service of others."