StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

NOTE: THIS IS LONG…and very likely will drift into more than one post, especially if I get to do some of the reading I’d like to do this weekend.

This is a fascinating and lengthy (268 pages) translation of a book that outlines al Qaeda’s plan for defeating the United States. The work was done by William McCants. The translation is available at the Olin Institute website (www.wcfia.harvard.edu/olin/) and the Combating Terrorism Center website (www.ctc.usma.edu). 
http://www.ctc.usma.edu/naji.asp

“The Management of Savagery…The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Umma Will Pass”

The genre of “strategic studies”—the name given by jihadi ideologues to their books and articles on the strengths and weakness of the jihadi movement and those of its enemies—had, until recently, been neglected by Western governments and analysts involved with counterterrorism. In 2004, Hegghammer and Lia called attention to the genre (which they dubbed “jihadi strategic studies”) and usefully commented on its features (Hegghammer and Lia, SCT, 2004). More recently, Brachman and McCants demonstrated how this genre can be used to identify and exploit the weaknesses of the jihadi movement (Brachman and McCants, SCT, 2006—a draft is available online…Stealing al Qaeda’s Playbook)

Despite this growing attention, a full translation of one of these books has not been publicly available.   

One reason for the neglect of works in this genre is that they are written in Arabic and they are often quite lengthy. Moreover, they are much more difficult to translate than the usual diatribes by Bin Ladin and other prominent jihadi leaders. Unlike the latter, which are meant for popular consumption, jihadi strategic texts require translators to have a familiarity with Western strategic studies (from which they draw heavily), medieval Islamic history and theology, and contemporary developments in the jihadi movement. The reward for overcoming these obstacles is immeasurable—these works are brilliant (if diabolical) studies of global insurgency written by its most intellectually-gifted participants. While it is still an open question as to whether these texts guide the actions of foot soldiers, they are certainly read by the jihadi intelligentsia and they remain the best source for understanding the nature of the jihadi movement.

In recognition of their value, the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard commissioned William McCants in 2005 to translate one of the most recent and significant of these works, Abu Bakr Naji’s Management of Savagery (some of its salient features are summarized in the Brachman and McCants article cited above). The Olin Institute, in collaboration with West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center, is making this translation available online for free. Writing as a high-level insider, Naji explains how al-Qaeda plans to defeat the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East, establish sanctuaries for Jihadis, correct organizational problems, and create better propaganda. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the strategic thinking of al-Qaeda’s leadership and the future of the jihadi movement.

A few things of importance from the outset that I’ve noticed.

The Preface reads:

The Order that has Governed the World Since the Sykes-Picot Era
Contemplating the previous centuries, even until the middle of the twentieth century, one finds that when the large states or empires collapsed – and even small states, whether they were Islamic or non-Islamic – and a state did not come into being that was comparable in power and equivalent to the previous state with regard to control over the lands and regions of that state which had collapsed, the regions and sectors of this state changed, through human nature, on account of submission to what is called the administrations of savagery.

When the caliphal state fell, some of this savagery appeared in some of the regions. However, the situation stabilized soon after that on account of (the order) the Sikes-Picot treaty established. Thereupon, the division of the caliphal state and the withdrawal of the colonial states was such that the caliphal state was divided into (large) states and small states, ruled by military governments or civil governments supported by military forces. The ability of these governments to continue administering these states was consonant with the strength of their connection with these military forces and the ability of these forces to protect the form of the state, whether through the power which these forces derived from their police or army, or through the external power which supported them…

…A regime controlling a satellite state that circles in the orbit of one of the superpowers, acquiring economic and military benefits from it, is compensated by that superpower with various types of support. However, in accordance with the nature of the inhabitants of our countries which these regimes rule (in other words, like the countries whose inhabitants are Muslims), this support was largely limited and most of it went to supporting individuals in the ruling regimes or personal support for the military commanders of these states and the influential leaders of their armies.

Following that period, some of the regimes collapsed and others were established, either because the superpower abandoned it or was unable to protect it from collapsing, or because another superpower helped a different group infiltrate this regime, overthrow it, and take its place by seizing it in accordance with pure universal law.

Those regimes that achieved stability were able to impose their values upon the society of every state they controlled. If they circled in the orbit of a new superpower or still flirted with the superpower that supported the previous regime, they mixed their social and economic values with the values of the superpower in whose orbit they circled and imposed the mixture upon society, placing a sacred halo around these values, even if they were values that every rational mind refused…

…Despite the violence of Satan, a small group of thinkers and noble people remain who oppose tyranny and seek justice. This group wants to use the power they possess to change this reality for the better in accordance with their belief system. However, a second consideration that occurs to them is the existence of a criminal force in these armies which does not pay heed to values…one or both of the superpowers will, under the cover of the United Nations, compel the new regime – through trickery, force, pressure, or all of these – to continue circling in the orbit of one of the superpowers and they will force new beneficiaries upon the new regime… This honored person who came to power comes to resemble those who went before him, like al-Bashir in Sudan…(This is also what was planned, in another form, for Afghanistan during the rule of the Taliban before the events of September. In that case, (the plan was to) exhaust it with long sanctions, then press a button at the appropriate moment to transfer money and arms to the opposition and support them with people from neighboring countries, annihilating that state. That’s the least one could expect. Thus, the possibility of direct intervention under any pretext is also proven.)

For the most part, those who think about these noble people end up turning away from the idea of changing those regimes, accepting the status quo, and turning within themselves, carrying bitterness in their hearts. Those among them that are honest with their weak souls resign from their military work; otherwise, it does not take them long to sink into the quagmire of darkness and decadence beneath the slogan of “No religion and no world” or “No goodness, no justice, and no world”. Such is the state of affairs since the fall of the caliphate…

It goes on…for a while and then the author discusses a number of what he calls "illusions."

However, I believe that the reference to the Sykes-Picot Agreement reveals what some have been saying for a while. The Colonialists (mostly Britain and France) created arbitrary geographic dividing lines between what had historically been tribal lands with no borders.

The actual Sykes-Picot Agreement can be found here: http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/mideast/sykes.htm.  According to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes-Picot_Agreement), Sykes-Picot was "a secret understanding between the governments of Britain and France defining their respective spheres of post-World War I influence and control in the Middle East. The boundaries of this agreement still remain in much of the common border between Syria and Iraq.

The agreement was negotiated in November 1915 by the French diplomat François Georges-Picot and Briton, Mark Sykes.

Britain was allocated control of areas roughly comprising Jordan, Iraq and a small area around Haifa. France was allocated control of South-eastern Turkey, Northern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The controlling powers were left free to decide on state boundaries within these areas.

The area which subsequently came to be called Palestine was for international administration pending consultations with Russia and other powers…"

By the way, another and shorter paper on this subject, "Stealing Al‐Qa`ida’s Playbook" written by Jarret M. Brachman and William F. McCants* http://www.ctc.usma.edu/Stealing%20Al-Qai%27da%27s%20Playbook%20–%20CTC.pdf provides additional insights.

…Based on his reading of these works and the experience of the jihadis in Afghanistan, Naji articulates a grand strategy for defeating the United States. First, he observes that after the rise of the two superpowers following World War II, nations allied themselves with the United States or the Soviet Union in return for financial and military support. The jihadi movement had been unsuccessful in the past because the superpowers propped up these proxy governments and convinced the masses through the media that they were invincible. The solution, Naji says, is to provoke a superpower into invading the Middle East directly. This will result in a great propaganda victory for the jihadis because the people will 1) be impressed that the jihadis are directly fighting a superpower, 2) be outraged over the invasion of a foreign power, 3) be disabused of the notion that the superpower is invincible the longer the war goes on, and, 4) be angry at the proxy governments allied with the invading superpower. Moreover, he argues, it will bleed the superpower’s economy and military. This will lead to social unrest at home and the ultimate defeat of the superpower.

Naji does not suffer under the illusion that the jihadis can defeat the United States in a direct military confrontation; rather, the clash with the United States is more important for propaganda victories in the short term, and the political defeat of the United States in the long‐term, as its society fractures and its economy is further strained. Naji observes that this strategy was used with great effect against the Soviet Union and that it will work against United States. Indeed, it may work better against the United States because it does not have the ruthlessness or resolve of the Soviet Union.

Interestingly, Naji does not explicitly say that the U.S. invasion of Iraq has played into this strategy, but he does counsel his jihadi brothers in Iraq to be patient, telling them that victory can come at any time. Once the U.S. withdraws from Iraq, he forecasts, its media halo will dissipate and the regimes that supported it will be vulnerable. The jihadis should quickly take advantage of the situation by invading countries that border Iraq, where they will be welcomed as liberators.

Thus, it would appear that we find once again, much like in the establishment of the Durand line that "created" Afghanistan and Pakistan, the "wise hand" of Great Britain (then on the wane of its greatness) and France (the country that later in history lost at Dien bien Phu and created the instability in French Indochina that led to the Vietnam War), screwing up the Middle East.

Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions

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He’s on loan from Carnegie Mellon University and has a two-year contract worth $577,000 (total).

Cyber Security Chief in Homeland Security Department Under Scrutiny
U.S. lawmakers are questioning a two-year, $577,000 contract for the acting cyber security chief.

Donald ”Andy” Purdy Jr. "…is employed by Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, which has loaned him to the Homeland Security Department in exchange for the government paying nearly all of his salary. Meanwhile, Purdy’s cybersecurity division has paid Carnegie Mellon $19 million (euro15.12 million) in contracts this year, almost one-fifth the unit’s total budget.

Purdy said he has not been involved in discussions over his office’s business deals with the school…"

…"Frankly, it’s a very competitive market place out there, and I could make a lot more in the private sector,” said Purdy, a former White House cybersecurity adviser and the former top lawyer at the U.S. Sentencing Commission.

His former boss and predecessor as cybersecurity chief, Amit Yoran, earned $131,342 (euro104,513) before he resigned abruptly in October 2004. Chertoff agreed one year ago to create a position of DHS assistant secretary over cybersecurity, but the job hasn’t been filled.

Purdy seems qualified (his predecessor Amit Yoran certainly was IMO), but the contract with the University makes him quite expensive.

Current Affairs, Domestic Terrorism, National Security, Opinions, Technology

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Another in the series on cybersecurity.

How to destroy a hard drive in five seconds
By Ryan DeBeasi, NetworkWorld.com, 06/27/06
You are on a U.S. military aircraft, transporting hard drives with important, classified information, when you collide with another plane and are forced to land near an enemy intelligence agency. There is no time to delete the files, and the drives are in heavy-duty steel cases so that they are difficult to destroy. You have a few minutes before someone finds you, grabs the drives, and searches them for even the smallest trace of useful data. What would you do?…

…“For the average person, software approaches are completely fine,” Knotts says, but a leak of even a few words of NSA information could be dangerous.

The Guard Dog destroys all the data on a drive, even in parts that computers cannot access, and it can erase any magnetic media…

Feel safe yet?

Whenever I’ve had a hard drive failure and replacement, I’ve stresed over how to ensure that none of my company’s data and information was available (to Dell, or to anyone who received my hard drive as a refurbished item).  Think about detroying your hard drive the next time, and simply paying for a new one.

Technology

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Its been continually stated that the reason Mexicans cross our borders illegally is to seek economic opportunities.  And yet, I read that "For Mexico’s poor, election holds little promise."

… The people themselves, and others throughout the country who settle on land they don’t own, use the word "necessity" a lot when asked why they live here or do the things they do to get by…

… The president Mexico will choose this Sunday won’t change their lives either, residents here believe, regardless of how the three leading candidates present themselves as the next saving grace…

…"They promise, promise, promise — and nothing," said Sandra Ruiz Martínez, 35, who lives high on the hill, elevation 7,750 feet, in a one-room home with her mother, seven children, a sister, a nephew and a dog named "Poopies."     

About a fifth of the 2.5 million people in the Mexico City suburb of Ecatepec, which means "windy hill" in the Indian language Náhuatl, live like the Ruiz household.

They’re also among 50 million Mexicans living in poverty…

… Coupled with better opportunities in the United States, poverty still is a major factor in the economic pushing and pulling that drives immigration…

…A few houses over is the less fortunate family of Gustavo René Paredes Jacobo, 48. A picture of the Last Supper hangs in the living room, among a collage of glossy magazine pages used as wallpaper.

Wood pallets are his outer partitions, and he looked at them when asked what he desired of whichever candidate replaces President Vicente Fox.

"More than anything, I want walls," Paredes said…

… The imbalance between the rich and the poor in Mexico, however, hasn’t budged. And the amount of money Mexicans send home while working in the U.S. has skyrocketed, from just over $2 billion in 1990 to $20 billion in 2005, according to Mexico’s central bank…

Poverty is the root issue…and its the driving factor behind illegal immigration.  July 1 is election day.  Frankly, I don’t expect much to change.

Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions

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Once again, from a more local perspective:

Mexico president hopefuls confront border bloodshed

Mexico’s top three candidates for president agree on several things, but their biggest rhetorical overlap could be on the need to combat the drug traffickers who in recent years have turned this city into a battleground.

Similar ideas for restoring order are in the platforms of candidates Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party, or PAN, and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. Both call for the creation of a unified federal police force and a central intelligence-sharing clearinghouse.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the candidate for the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, wants to completely re-evaluate every element of the federal attorney general’s office and shake up state and local police forces.

The current epicenter of a drug cartel turf war that has claimed more than 300 lives in the past 2 1/2 years, Nuevo Laredo is listening. The city has put drug trafficking — or more generally, public safety — on par with immigration and the economy as a campaign issue…

… Nuevo Laredo-based leaders of all three parties agree President Vicente Fox’s administration has not addressed one key problem: a severe lack of communication between police departments at the federal, state and local levels…

… "Felipe Calderón is aware that more weapons is not the answer," Ramirez said. "The problem is at the root — the lack of values, the disintegration of families and the lack of economic opportunity…"

…"The most important is to ensure that authorities don’t collude with organized crime and that they don’t side with one group to eradicate another," said the PRD president here, Jorge Valdez Vargas. "We are here, hard fisted and strong-willed, as it should be."

You’re not going to stop drug trafficking, but at least you can combat it," he said…

Election is July 1.  Lets see what happens.

López Obrador would shake up the attorney general’s office — which oversees drug cartel investigations — from top to bottom, Valdez said.

Current Affairs, International Issues

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Another in a series of posts relating to cybersecurity.

Control visible distribution lists in e-mail
CC + Reply All = Trouble
Security Strategies Newsletter
By M. E. Kabay, Network World, 06/27/06
Recently a nice lady in the Human Resources department at my university sent out a note to a dozen people reminding us that we had not yet finished signing up for our new medical insurance coverage.

Unfortunately, she put all the e-mail addresses into the CC (carbon copy) line, where they were visible to everyone in the list. Predictably, someone on the list composed a response to her, hit REPLY ALL and sent some mildly personal information about the state of her medical concerns to all the recipients on the original list, none of whom cared a whit about her problems.

Luckily, there wasn’t much that was very private in that message…

…1. Many people unthinkingly use the CC line for addresses to a distribution list.2. Many people unthinkingly use Reply All for replies to every e-mail message.

The combination can lead to embarrassing violations of confidentiality; when the HR department staff use CC instead of BCC (the "blind carbon copy" function that conceals the distribution list), the Reply All function can inadvertently violate privacy…

…by default, all of us should use the BCC list unless we need to stimulate group discussion of an issue or it’s important for the members of the group to know who received the message…

…the CC + Reply All habit becomes a covert channel for release of confidential information…

Nothing more to add…as Sgt. Phil Esterhaus used to say on Hill Street Blues, "Hey, lets be careful out there."

Technology

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Of all the things to happen.

Bag holding police anti-terror files lost in street
Anti-terrorist police have been ordered to revamp security procedures after a bag containing details of bomb plots and suspects identified for surveillance was lost in the street…

…The police face further scrutiny after revelations in the Guardian on Saturday that officers had been warned about two of the 7/7 bombers three years ago. An IT worker who knew Mohammad Sidique Khan and Shehzad Tanweer said he had contacted police about them because of the anti-western material they were producing, but no action was taken…

…Much of the speculation is focused on Khan. Reports last week suggested a senior FBI officer had named him as having been identified as a threat and banned from the US. Dan Coleman was quoted by a US journalist, Ron Suskind, in his book, The One Percent Doctrine, as having warned British intelligence that he posed a threat two years before the attacks. The claim was picked up by the Times last week but has been questioned by the FBI.

Yesterday the cable channel CNN revealed that Mr Coleman had denied ever naming Sidique Khan…

Focus: How much did they know about Khan?
…the bombers and their extremist circle had come to the attention of the police and MI5 on several occasions. The catalogue of evidence includes:

• The claim this weekend by a senior security official that a tracking device of the type used by the security services to monitor suspected terrorists was recovered from a car belonging to Mohammad Sidique Khan, leader of the London bombers, in the days following 7/7.
• The fact, now officially confirmed, that Khan was monitored and tape-recorded over a period in 2004 by MI5. It claims he was not identified until after the bombings.
• The revelation yesterday that a Martin Gilbertson, who helped the bombers with their computer systems and videos, had warned the police about their extremist activities in 2003 and sent documentation to back his claims.
• The fact that the security services were monitoring the activities of an associate of the bombers, a former Royal Marine called Martin McDaid, in Beeston, Leeds, as early as February 2002.
• A claim by former US security officials but denied by MI5 that Khan was classified as a terrorist threat by America in 2003 and that this information was passed to Britain…

More from Dennis Lormel from the Counterterrorism Blog:

Initial Comments about Terrorist Financing and “The One Percent Doctrine”

In some circles, the Suskind book is being questioned.  I haven’t read it, or even excerpts yet, either.  What little that I do know is that the "One Percent Solution," otherwise known as the Cheney Doctrine, defines (at least to me) the American preemption strategy…"If there is even a one percent chance that WMDs have been given to terrorists, we have to treat it as a certainty." 

Somehow, despite what I think "others" might say or comment, I have a hard time disagreeing with risk mitigation to the 1% level.

Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions

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Conflict diamonds…blood diamonds…its the dirty underbelly of much of the violence that has occurred in Africa and elsewhere…its been an issue since before September 11th when terrorism struck us here at home.  And some counterterrorism experts fear that these blood diamonds have already played a role in helping al Qaeda fund their jihad.

Conflict Diamonds: Renewing the Controversy (also here)
After a few years on the back burner, the conflict diamond issue is heating up again. Former Liberian President Charles Taylor, whose despotism was facilitated by his regime’s strong position in the diamond trade, appears destined for trial at The Hague. Meanwhile, a major motion picture starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond, is expected to hit theaters in September — and diamond company De Beers, anticipating the potential impact of the movie, has hired Nelson Mandela to spearhead a pre-emptive public relations campaign.

…Amid all of this, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are moving to capitalize on the controversies — seeking to raise new criticisms of the diamond industry and potentially broaden their influence over the mining industry generally…

The diamond industry has little to gain from the brewing controversy over conflict diamonds — but the situation seemingly gives some NGOs a rare opportunity to make considerable progress toward their overarching institutional goals…

Once the Kimberley Process was in place in January 2003, the diamond industry’s mission was clear: press for increased certification of diamonds, enforce the industry’s monitoring of its chain of custody, and alert the public globally to the successes achieved under the Kimberley Process. By following this course, it was believed, the industry could put the conflict diamond issue to rest. For the most part, it has succeeded; the industry loudly claims that less than 0.2 percent of diamonds sold are not certified — and NGOs do not dispute this argument. In many ways, the issue appeared, until recently, to have been resolved…

[PLEASE READ THE REMAINDER OF THE ARTICLE]

Do you own blood diamonds?
The diamond industry is still fraught with issues around conflict diamonds and there are just simply no guarantees that the diamond you are about to buy does not have blood on it…

…We are trying to catch people’s attention. The issue of conflict diamonds is very much solved, unfortunately not because of the Kimberley process, the system designed to stop it ever happening again, but because the conflicts ended and the leaders of the rebel movements were killed. The Kimberley process is coming up for renewal; it is its third anniversary…

…The Kimberley process is a certification system for the rough diamond trade. It should carry all the way through to the retail side and that is the real problem we see at the moment, in that the retail side of the industry, the polishing and the manufacturers, dare not carry out their part of the agreement…

…It is everywhere. You can go to Belgium, to Dubai, to New York, to India, to China and there is no certification system in place, there is no chain of warranties. That is what they promised they would do and that is really letting the system down and it is causing major problems and diamonds are still being smuggled out and there is still extensive money laundering and this is causing major problems for the compliance of the Kimberley process…

Almost one year ago, the subject of blood diamonds and the possible role of al Qaeda in the African diamond trade was being argued and debated hotly.

Debate Continues Here on Al Qaeda’s Involvement With African Diamond Trade

al Qaeda and Diamonds

Current Affairs, International Issues

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We’re now basically midway through the 2006 World Cup (Copa Mondial).  How does this relate to counterterrorism?

RAE provides chemical detection system at the World Cup

RDK (Rapid Deployment Kit) System Package

Now for the commentary.  I started playing soccer in 1962 (a long time ago) when I was 13 years old, and have followed the game ever since then.  I played til I almost failed out of college when I was 19, and then played and coached until I was 38.  The U.S. team played to great hopes and expectations this year.  And yet, they were embarassed.

They lost to the Czech Republic 3-0 (nil); then they tied Italy 1-1 (with Italy scoring an "own goal" - meaning that an Italian player inadvertently scored a goal against his team and for the U.S. team); and then, with their fate in their own hands, today the U.S. lost to Ghana 2-1 (a penalty kick at the end of the first half was the difference).  To make matters worse, Italy then did what I did not think could happen…they beat the Czech Republic 2-0.  That means had the American team beaten Ghana, it would have advanced to the next round.  A great disappointment, but IMO, the U.S. squad got what it deserved…a ride home!

Current Affairs, Opinions, Technology

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After all of the hub-bub died down about the Dubai Ports management deal, the issue remains that port security is STILL a big issue.

Port to purchase intrusion barriers
The Port Authority of Tampa has received a $1.3 million grant from DHS. As a precautionary move, the money will be used to purchase floating small craft intrusion barriers for the port, but not without controversy. Already, legal counsel for shipper Maritrans, Skip Volkle, has come forth with concerns about the purchase. "How and where will these be maintained, stored and deployed?" asked Volkle. "Where will the money for the continuing expenses come from? It would be appropriate to discuss this with the vessel community before we embark in a $1.3 million capital expense."

This argument may have some merit, but in the grand scheme of things, $1.3 million is a relatively small amount of money to squabble over, especially when it comes to port security which is perennially overlooked for adequate security funding. In the same Harbor Safety Committee board meeting in which Volkle vocalized his concerns, Port director Richard Wainio reassured members that the barriers were in the best interest of the port, claiming that "all security people involved recognize that this helps enhance security." The decision to invest in floating barriers was a joint resolution made by the Coast Guard, the sheriff’s department, and the Port of Tampa.

Only one bid had been received from Siemens Building Technologies & Wave Dispersion Technologies by the close of the submittal period.

Feel safer yet?  Port Security.  I am told that if we wait for the Congress to pass a comprehensive port security bill and implement solutions, we could be five years down the road.  That’s why you see independent programs like this one being funded and implemented.

Current Affairs, National Security, Technology

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In the continuing question of Afghanistan and the re-emergence of the Taliban.

In his Counterterrorism Blog post, Walide Phares writes and analyzes:
Zawahiri Tape: Taliban exposes plans and concerns
Al Qaida number two, Dr Ayman Zawahiri issued a new tape calling on the Afghans to "rise against the Infidels (Kuffars) and their agents (the Karzai Government)." Following are few points of analysis and evaluation:

…Attacking the US for its "killing of innocent Afghans and torture of Muslims."

وندد الظواهري في الشريط الذي بث على شبكة الإنترنت بمقتل مدنيين أفغانيين على يد جنود أميركيين في كابل يوم 29 مايو/أيار

الماضي. واعتبر أن ذلك الحادث سبقته "سلسلة طويلة من قتل الأبرياء والاعتداء في كابل وخوست وأورزغان وهلمند وقندهار وكونار،

[I couldn't have said that part any better!]

The second line of attack is to link the attacks "against the Afghan by US forces" as part of aggression against Muslims elsewhere. وسبقه تعذيب المسلمين في بغرام وغونتانامو،. He says: "and all that was preceded by the torture of Muslims in Bagram (Afghanistan) and Guantanamo…[etc.]

Mounting Troubles in Afghanistan Signal Further Dangers
http://www.douglasfarah.com/
The news from Pakistan’s border regions is getting worse, not better, and it seems unlikely that the new wave of attacks and recruitment are the result of Taliban desperation or lack of power, as the administration likes to say.

The recent call by Zawahiri to residents of Kabul to rise up against the Americans is not so interesting for the text of the message, but because it shows an ability to comment on recent events, and project a message in an area and at a time when such projections have a strong psychological impact.

Far from weakening, the Taliban and its remaining al Qaeda allies, operating often with the continued assistance of the Pakistani military and intelligence, are gaining strength…[more]

In Tribal Pakistan, a Tide of Militancy
Influence of Taliban Said to Be Spreading Beyond Border Areas Near Afghanistan
…A tide of Islamic militancy is spreading across and beyond the semiautonomous tribal areas of northwest Pakistan that hug the Afghan border, despite the deployment of some 70,000 Pakistani army troops there, according to a variety of people with close family, professional or political ties to the tribal regions…

…They say the local Taliban movement, which has close ethnic and theological links to the Taliban across the border in Afghanistan, has won new supporters and been able to carve out enclaves of alternative power.

"Things are starting to spin out of control," one Western diplomat in Islamabad said of the tribal areas, which have historically been deeply conservative. "In some areas, it’s beginning to look like they are setting up a government within a government…"

Afghan president calls for arrest of al Qaeda No. 2
Al-Zawahiri video urges young Afghans to oust Americans

And so it goes.  What amuses me the most was the argument I had with a supposed "expert" on Afghanistan from NATO a few months ago…he was emphatic that the Taliban was "at bay" and on the run…that Afghanistan was at peace…and the people of Afghanistan had a rosy future.

Seems to me that the game is far from over.

Current Affairs, International Issues, Opinions

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Interesting subject matter brought to my attention by the Homeland Security Daily Wire.

 EU threatens visa curbs for Americans
The
European Union tells the United States that two can play the entry-visa
game. The pawns in this game, for now, are U.S. diplomats and soldiers,
but the travel industry is worried that tourists are not far behind.
The intensifying transatlantic war over visas is threatening to derail
a summit attended today by President George Bush, as the EU says it is
serious about
imposing new restrictions on U.S. diplomats and soldiers in response to
the visa requirements the United States has imposed on travelers from
countries that recently joined the EU. Travelers from fourteen of the
fifteen pre-2004 EU countries (what Donald Rumsfeld would call "old
Europe")
are allowed into the United States without an entry visa (these
countries, except for Greece, are part of the visa waiver program), but
citizens of almost all of the ten new, post-2004 1991 EU members –
mainly ex-communist nations — need a full visa (the exception is tiny
Slovenia, which has been
allowed into the visa waiver program).

The issue is on the agenda for the annual EU-U.S. summit taking place in Vienna today and tomorrow. The visa issue may well sour a summit designed to debate
issues such as Iran and the global challenge on energy. The EU’s threat
of retaliation was made explicitly by the European Commission in a letter to the Bush administration. It said: "The [European] Commission will be under
increasing pressure to announce the prospect of reciprocal measures as enshrined in our visa law, possibly in respect of diplomatic and
service passport holders�. ‘It is becoming increasingly difficult for us to explain to citizens of 10 member states that they will require short-stay visas while U.S.
citizens can travel without a visa obligation to all 25 EU member states."

Imposing visas on U.S. diplomats and service personnel would involve only EU members inside the Schengen free-travel zone. That means the United Kingdom and
Ireland would not introduce the sanctions against the United States.

Trading inconvenience for National Security?  Thank you!

Current Affairs, Federal Policy, International Issues

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Also from Homeland Security Daily Wire

Scientists develop algorithm for ultra-secret security technique

Identity theft and the pilfering of other types of information is a growing
problem. One measure of security taken by more and more companies,
organizations, and governments is optical security. Optical security
involves hiding or embedding a secret image inside a visible, or host,
image using holography, virtual optics, and other methods. Recently
minted U.S. bills, for
example, contain watermarked images. These watermarked images are the
visible but difficult-to-replicate marks, typically covered by a more
visible image. Embedded images, however, can be found in watermarked
images, often without great difficulty, undermining the security of the
protected
instrument.

Scientists have now developed a new optical security method which does not rely on embedding watermarked images in visible images. Their proposed methods instead rely on a phase retrieval algorithm to generate specific optical and phase keys which, when applied, extract the secret information. The optical keys contain information and are accessible to an individual when he or she uses a personal identification number (PIN). The information contained in the phase keys, which is the primary source for determining extraction, is distributed to the individual separately.

The new method is
called optical Fresnel image hiding, or OFIH. Yishi Shi, one of the
scientists to develop the technique and coauthor of a recent paper on
the method, told Lisa Zyga of Physorg.com that "The phase
keys, designed by the
phase retrieval algorithm, modulate the amplitude of the input [host]
image into the amplitude of the secret image by the two Fresnel
transformations…. The phase keys are the main keys for the extraction
of the secret image. The second type of key, the additional optical
keys (which include the
wavelength key and the mask position key) are also employed in our
Fresnel system, which helps to achieve a higher security level than can
be achieved by Fourier systems."

The scientists say the
new optical security method satisfies the three requirements of image
hiding — imperceptibility, robustness, and capacity. The method has an
added advantage in that one host image can hide several different
secret images, and in
allowing one secret image to be hidden in different host images.

You may not see it the way I do, but the ability to covertly bury information in this new type of optical key is an important step forward in protection.  A few years ago, digital watermarks were circumvented; more recently the encryption of RFID chips was compromised.

Current Affairs, Technology

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Here’s what’s in the papers:

Mexico hopeful takes hard line vs. NAFTA
Web Posted: 06/18/2006 12:00 AM CDT
Leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took his hardest line yet against free trade with the United States, saying for the first time Saturday he would not honor Mexico’s commitment under NAFTA to eliminate tariffs on U.S. corn and beans.

Fox’s family could be in for a touch time
Web Posted: 06/18/2006 12:00 AM CDT
Whispers persist: If Andrés Manuel López Obrador is elected president, he’ll stop at nothing to have his attorney general investigate the wife and stepsons of outgoing President Vicente Fox.

Deserved or not, the populist candidate known as AMLO has a reputation for having little patience with laws that protect the rich, or for letting go of a grudge.

Although his supporters said López Obrador isn’t interested in revenge, he has campaigned on the platform that he will not tolerate corruption and that the government must serve the poor, not just the wealthy.

If he wins, it would be the first time the Democratic Revolution Party has held the presidency and would spell another chapter in Mexico’s fledgling democracy.

Allegations of corruption have swirled around Marta Sahagún, Fox’s second wife, and whether her sons got rich during Fox’s six years in office by abusing political connections…

Fears grow that vote will split Mexican classes even further
Web Posted: 06/20/2006 10:53 AM CDT
As a small business owner eased his SUV through an      intersection, he heard a smack against the passenger side.      

July 2 is right around the corner…the question is whether the results will be "good" for the U.S. on this side of the border.

Current Affairs, International Issues

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OK.  Lets start by admitting that this article is published in the online edition of the Independent (UK), and therefore should be read with their possible bias.  But "one" should also recognize that the "letter" from Ambassador Khalilzad to the State Department, however edited it may be, seems to reflect a certain reality of life, especially life outside of the protection of the U.S. Embassy.

The ugly truth about everyday life in Baghdad (by the US ambassador)
CONFIDENTIAL MEMO
FROM: US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, Baghdad
TO: Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOTS FROM THE OFFICE
SENSITIVE
Published: 20 June 2006

Leaked memo reveals plight of Iraqis
A leaked cable from the US embassy in Baghdad signed by the ambassador paints a grim picture of Iraq as a country disintegrating in which the real rulers are the militias, and the central government counts for nothing.

The cable, signed by the US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and sent to the State Department in Washington on 6 June, is wholly at odds with the optimistic account of developments given by President George Bush and Tony Blair in their recent visits to Iraq.

Iraqis employed by the US embassy live in fear that other Iraqis will find out who they are working for. "We have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames," the cable says. "In March a few staff approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate…"

…even in the heavily fortified Green Zone, Iraqis employed by the US embassy are frightened. "In April, employees began reporting change in demeanour of guards at the Green Zone checkpoints," the memo says. "They seemed to be more militia-like. In some cases seemingly taunting…"

…An Iraqi employee asked if she could have credentials saying she was a journalist. This was because the Iraqi soldiers would hold up "her embassy badge and proclaim loudly to nearby passers-by ‘Embassy’ as she entered. Such information is a death sentence if overheard by the wrong people."

The memo, leaked to The Washington Post, gives a vivid and detailed account of the limited authority of the US and the Iraqi government in Baghdad. Entitled "Snapshots from the Office: Public Affairs Staff Show Strains of Social Discord" it is one of the most revealing documents ever made public, in this case involuntarily, by US authorities in Iraq…

Frankly, time will tell how the government of Iraq will be able to maintain security and infrastructure.  Time will also tell us how the religious differences that have existed in the region for hundreds of years will resolve, or not, and whether the obliteration of Zarqawi will actually lead to the end of the "insurgency."  Personally, I think not.  But time will tell.

Current Affairs, Iraq, Opinions

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