StormWarning’s Counterterrorism

"Talking points won’t fly." - Patrick Fitzgerald

http://www.mediainfo.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001391960
…the allegations of perjury and obstruction of justice were "very serious charges." He said that "talking points" that downgrade the charges "won’t fly…"

…Asked about the Republican "talking points" that Libby was only indicted for "technicalities," Fitzgerald replied: "I’ll be blunt. That talking point won’t fly. If you’re doing a national security investigation, if you’re trying to find out who compromised the identity of a CIA officer and you go before a grand jury and if the charges are proven — because remember there’s a presumption of innocence — but if it is proven that the chief of staff to the vice president went before a federal grand jury and lied under oath repeatedly and fabricated a story about how he learned this information, how he passed it on, and we prove obstruction of justice, perjury and false statements to the FBI–that is a very, very serious matter…"

"…But I will not end the investigation until feel we have done everything we can. Everyone should take a deep breath and allow us to do what we need to do…"

Comment: We may never know the impact of the perjury and obstruction on the ability of Fitzgerald to learn the truth about any possible violation of the primary charge of the investigation (a violation of the Intelligence Identity Protection Act).  In that context, this is an issue of national security if ever it is proven.

Comment: But the timetable of events pieced together in the indictment can lead to certain conclusions…none of which at this point matter. We’ll see what happens next.

For the record, here is the .pdf file of Fitzgerald’s press release (citing one key paragraph): http://www.usdoj.gov/usao/iln/osc/documents/libby_pr_28102005.pdf

Prior to July 14, 2003, Valerie Wilson’s employment status was classified. Prior to that date, her affiliation with the CIA was not common knowledge outside the intelligence community. Disclosure of classified information about an individual’s employment by the CIA has the potential to damage the national security in ways that range from preventing that individual’s future use in a covert capacity, to compromising intelligence-gathering methods and operations, and endangering the safety of CIA employees and those who deal with them, the indictment states.

And here is a link to the indictment itself: http://news.findlaw.com/hdocs/docs/plame/usvlibby102805ind.pdf

But the "talking points won’t fly." That’s a quote from Patrick Fitzgerald, a Republican appointed special prosecutor lauded for his integrity and thoroughness.

"Lying to the FBI and the Grand Jury is a serious violation of the public trust…"

Comment:  My personal opinion is that new facts may emerge in what follows.  I hope that those facts will clarify the questions that I and others have about the motives of why Plame’s name came up for discussion.  I also believe that ultimately, the American people deserve to know everything there is to know about how the case for the invasion of Iraq was reached (noting that I continue to maintain that the removal of Hussein from Iraq was, in fact, a positive and monumental step in the battle against global terrorism).

However, still, as Fitzgerald said, "This indictment is not about the war…Anyone who’s concerned about the war and has feelings for or against [it] shouldn’t look to this criminal process for any answers or resolution of that."  And it must be remembered that an indictment does not equal a finding of guilt or innocence of the charges.  More is left to be seen and learned, IMO.

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Sound strange? Maybe…but this is about the first attack in February 1993. This isn’t about the "trial lawyer" thing. To me, this is one of those times when "dots are connected" after the fact…its a lesson learned (too late).

The articles are here for the reading. To me, the fact that the plaintiffs have won their case is final judgement for them and the families of those who died that day in February 1993…but what is more important is the fact that it was judged that there had been warning in an earlier report to take steps to prevent attacks just like what happened.

Key to the discussion, I believe: "…During the four weeks of the trial, which began on Sept. 26, the plaintiffs…succeeded in turning…a 1985 report commissioned by Peter Goldmark, then the executive director of the Port Authority, into the heart of the case.

The report was eerily prescient. It said that car bombs were "fast becoming the weapon of choice for European terrorists," and that the public parking area in the trade center was "a definite security risk" because a vehicle filled with explosives could easily enter and park there.
The report, by the Office of Special Planning, an antiterrorist task force created by Mr. Goldmark, recommended closing the public parking area of the garage, and it also suggested providing guards at entrances, restricting pedestrian entry and conducting random searches of vehicles…

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/nyregion/26wtc.html
Imagine a world in which 9/11 never happened…9/11 was the elephant in the courtroom…

That was the strange, almost surreal world of a courtroom in Manhattan yesterday, as lawyers gave their summations in a case that took almost 12 years to reach a jury…

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aeZpspNgv87g&refer=top_world_news …plaintiffs argued the Port Authority bore primary responsibility for the death and destruction by ignoring five reports that said the underground parking garage was a prime target for a terrorist attack…

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/nyc-wtc1027,0,4687556.story?coll=ny-top-headlines … The trial focused on a 1985 report commissioned by the Port Authority that called the World Trade Center a “most attractive terrorist target.’

The report’s author, Edward O’Sullivan, a former Port Authority mechanical engineer, testified that executives of the authority rejected his recommendations including closing the parking garage. O’Sullivan said the former Port Authority executive director, Stephen Berger, told him the recommendations wouldn’t be implemented and another study would be done by a different group…

Do not forget that the even first installment of the Hart-Rudman Report was remarkably prescient in its predictions and recommendations, and yet, "…at the time of its release, it garnered very little attention and sadly, nothing was done to implement any of its recommendations…"

http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/nssg/Reports/reports.htm,

It was also written that: "The combination of unconventional weapons proliferation with the persistance of international terrorism will end the relative invulnerability of the U.S. homelaned to catastrophic attack.  A direct attack against American citizens on American soil is likely over the next quarter century."
      
- Executive Summary, the U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century, January 31, 2001

So, in a 1985 report commissioned by the Port Authority made recommendations that might have prevented the first WTC bombing, and was ignored…in fact, it was squelched. The counter-arguement, that the terrorists might have found a different way of attacking the WTC is, in my opinion, irrelevant and a deflection of an administrative blunder (I’m being nice here) that led to the first attack on U.S. soil in this long standing War on Terrorism…in fact, the trial finding that the Port Authority may only going to become a subject of discussion if someone wishes to argue against the "evils of trial lawyers."

The war on Islamic fundamentalism or Islamofascists may well have begun at the Munich Olympics…we simply weren’t listening. Did we listen, or even understand, to what was happening when Islamic terrorists dumped Leon Klinghoffer overboard? Its easy to blame one person or another for failures of inaction. IMO, the reality is that the American Mindset is/was as guilty as anything else or anyone else in looking back on the first WTC attack in 1993, as well as the atatcks of Sept. 11th.

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Recent disclosures of a series of emails sent within FEMA and DHS leading up to and during the Katrina disaster illustrate just how much in disarray they were.

FEMA EMails
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/20/national/22text-fema.html

Marty Bahamonde is a public affairs officer in the Boston regional office of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. He was sent to New Orleans in advance of the arrival of Hurricane Katrina and ended as the only FEMA representative in the city when the storm hit.  He sent a series of e-mails from his BlackBerry to other FEMA officials in Louisiana and back in Washington warning them about the dire conditions he saw, starting on Sunday, the day before the storm hit.

E-mail exchanges from Natalie Rule and David Passey, two other FEMA officials who work in the public affairs division, are included in the exchanges. At times, Mr. Bahamonde wrote emails directly to Michael Brown, who was then acting as the FEMA director…[more]

Read these emails yourself here: http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20051022_FEMA2.pdf

And then there are the emails to/from Mike Brown himself:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20051022_FEMA1.pdf

I can only conclude that reference to a "certain governor" means Jeb Bush.

FEMA Ignored Katrina Warnings, Agency Official Testifies
Lone official at Superdome told a Senate committee that his calls for help were disregarded.
http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1512003/20051021/index.jhtml?headlines=true
As supplies of oxygen began to run out and the situation inside the Superdome deteriorated one day before Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, the lone Federal Emergency Management Agency official on site made a desperate plea for help.

It was a call that fell on deaf ears, said Marty J. Bahamonde, according to transcripts of his testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which is investigating the government’s response to the disaster…

…"There was a systematic failure at all levels of government to understand the magnitude of the situation." — FEMA’s Marty J. Bahamonde…

None of this absolves Nagin and Blanco from their balls dropping.  It does belie some of the things that Sec’y Chertoff was saying during and right after the hurricane struck.

Michelle Malkin has a good run down on this on her website as well.
http://michellemalkin.com/archives/003755.htm

There will be more to be written on this one.

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Visas are a privilege, not a right.  Entry into this country is a privilege, not a right.  Visas are abused by many.  Visas continue to be a subject of discussion. 

Once again, Michael Cutler from the CT Blog adds considerably to our understanding of the question of Visas and their management relative to control of immigration to the United States.

The J-Visa Program discussed:
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/state_departmen.html
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/files/Jvisastudy.pdf

…According to the GAO report, the State Department is failing to monitor this program. There are about 280,000 aliens who enter the United States each year under the auspices of this visa category and this report notes that in the last four years, State Department officials visited only 8 travel or trainee sponsors out of some 200+ summer work locations to make certain that things were as claimed by these sponsors. In fact, one of the sponsors turned out to be a topless bar! For your convenience, you can download a copy of this report below. The State Department agrees that there have been weaknesses in the way that it has carried out its oversight responsibilities for the last ten years.

The disturbing issues here go in two directions. First of all, the point to this program is to have the foreign students or other cultural exchange visitors return to their home counties with a positive attitude about our country. Secondly, this is yet another visa category that provides aliens with the opportunity to gain entry into the United States. Terrorists who would want to attack us need to somehow gain entry into the United States.

It does not matter if they run the border, stowaway on a ship, make use of the Visa Waiver Program or obtain a visa to which they would not be entitled if all material facts were known. For them, all that matters is that they ultimately succeed in gaining entry into the United States…

Discussion of the Visa Overstay problem:  Unfortunately, finding and rounding up fugitive, illegal aliens and those who have overstayed their Visas is also an issue.

Each year, millions of visitors, foreign students, and immigrants come to the United States. Visitors may enter on a legal temporary basis–that is, with an authorized period of admission that expires on a specific date–either (1) with temporary visas (generally for tourism,business,or work) or, in some cases (2) as tourists or business visitors who are allowed to enter without visas. (The latter group includes Canadians and qualified visitors from 27 countries who enter under the visa waiver program.) The majority of visitors who are tracked depart on time, but others overstay. Four of the 9/11 hijackers who entered the United States with legal visas overstayed their authorized periods…

http://www.visalaw.com/04jun3/11jun304.html
"The General Accounting Office (GAO) released a study showing that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been extremely unsuccessful in its attempt to track and remove visa overstays…The GAO focused on the fact that only a few hundred of the 13,900 overstays who are from countries that “sponsor terrorism” had been removed from the U.S."

GAO-03-563 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Homeland Security Needs to Improve Entry Exit System …

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03563.pdf - 930.3KB - GAO Reports

Overview: Pursuant to legislative direction, the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), now part of the Department of Homeland Security, plans to acquire and deploy an entry exit system to assist in monitoring the flow of foreign nationals in and out of the United States. By separate legislative direction, INS must submit to the Senate and House Committees on Appropriations a plan for this system that meets certain conditions, including being reviewed by GAO, before funds can be obligated. This report satisfies GAO’s mandated review obligation by (1) addressing whether the plan submitted by INS, along with related INS documentation and plans, meets required conditions and (2) providing observations about the plan and INS’s management of the system….

http://www.visalaw.com/04jun3/11jun304.html

Comments on the Visa Program from the Center for Immigration Studies: http://www.cis.org/articles/2004/usvisittranscript.html
Visa Overstay discussion: … Not only do we not know exactly how many overstayers there are, we have little idea where they came from, how long they have been here, what kind of visa they entered on. Are they mainly people who are eligible for green cards and jumping in line, products of our overbooked permanent immigration system? Probably many are. But undoubtedly many have motives less benign, whether economic or criminal. The point is we do not know. DHS does collect some information on visa overstayers when it processes applications for green cards and when it processes people for removal, but that information is not analyzed for the purpose of learning about overstayers. It has been 10 years since anyone at the immigration agency has made any attempt to analyze the overstay population beyond guessing at its size…

A contributing factor:

An article in CEO Magazine in May 2005 described part of the problem.

Flight of the Creative Class
The U.S. must invest more in R&D and universities to retain its best and brightest. BY RICHARD FLORIDA
http://www.chiefexecutive.net/depts/bookexcerpt/208.htm
As the global economy becomes more dependent upon knowledge industries, nation-states must nurture what Richard Florida, professor at George Mason University’s School of Public Policy, calls “the creative class.” The United States, however, is no longer doing so and could lose its economic advantage. That’s the theme of his latest book, The Flight of the Creative Class: The New Global Competition for Talent.

…we as a country don’t seem terribly concerned about investing in the future of innovative inquiry. Instead, the U.S. government is cutting key areas of R&D spending, while corporate R&D funding was also down by nearly $8 billion in 2002, the largest single-year decline since the 1950s. State governments have slashed funds for higher education and for arts and culture while pumping up funds for stadiums, convention centers, and other bricks-and-mortar projects…

…Investing in innovation and in our collective creative infrastructure is important for the U.S. and for the world…

…Around the world, in fact, leading countries will have to spend significantly more on research and development and on higher education, opening up universities and colleges to take in more of the world’s best and brightest…

…Why the U.S. is Losing Its Creative Edge

• Post September 11 xenophobia makes foreigners feel unwelcome
• Stricter rules for U.S. visas keep talented foreigners away
• Visa delays make working with foreigners more expensive
• Bright foreign students avoid U.S. graduate schools
• Visa woes make it hard for foreign graduates of U.S. schools to stay here

Source: The Flight of the Creative Class: The New Global Competition for Talent

Our inability to eliminate the Visa Overstay problem is a continuing problem, and one that continues to threaten National and Homeland Security. Our continuing inability to find and deport identified illegals does the same. The fact that many municipalities continue to look the other way when it comes to illegals siphoning off benefits from the local tax payers unless they break a law - of course, other than the part about the fact they are in this country illegally - does the same.  The J-Visa issue simply adds to the problems of our immigration policies.

This entire subject was covered earlier on the blog:

Examining US Visa Security
http://moonagewebdream.blogs.com/storms_counter_terrorism/2005/09/examining_us_vi.html

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Well, its not really about terrorism, but it is about current events.  The other day I wrote a pseudo-two act play about the Harriet Miers nomination.  This is based on a conversation that I had the other night with a friend of mine who knows of such things.

Since this topic has now become "blog-bait" I figured I’d weigh in with my own tongue-in-cheek comments (with a dead serious implied end result).

"A Discussion with Harriet Miers" ©, a two-act play by StormWarning.

THE SCENE:  Oval Office
THE PLAYERS: GWB (the “Boss”) and Harriet Miers (the sacrificial “lamb”)

Act One:

[We hear a knock on the door.]

The “lamb” enters from screen right through the Oval Office door.  The “Boss” is sitting behind his desk (he is shooting paper clips with a rubber band into the ceiling as she enters).

“Lamb”: Good afternoon Mr. President

“Boss”: Oh come on Harriet, we’ve known each other long enough for you to call me “Boss.”

“Lamb”: Yes, Boss.  We’ve known each other a very long time.  I don’t really understand why you’ve asked me here today.

“Boss”: Well “lamb” (err, I mean Harriet), I wanted to talk with you about something you can do for your country and for your President.

“Lamb”: Well, anything that you ask, Sir.  What is it that you want me to do?

“Boss”:  Well Harriet, I have some good news and some not so good news.

“Lamb”: What is it Sir?

“Boss”:  I want to nominate you to the United States Supreme Court because I know that you have the qualities of mind and spirit and soul to fill the position in the way I want.  I want you to be the one to help me make my mark on the Supreme Court and leave my legacy so everyone knows that I once “slept here” at the White House.

“Lamb”: But George, I don’t have the qualifications to sit on the Supreme Court.  I’m a lawyer, I am your lawyer, but I’ve never been a judge.

“Boss”: Don’t worry about that Harriet.  You are a good lawyer and a close friend.  And I have every confidence that you will be a great Justice if those pesky Democrats will just agree to your nomination.  The bad news is that it’s not going to be an easy confirmation.  But its part of my plan.

Act 2: A few days have passed and George has begun to hear “noise” from unexpected places…his conservative base.  Among the loudest are Pat Buchanan, former Presidential candidate and currently, a talking head on that dreaded MSNBC, the most “liberal” of the three cable news networks…and William Kristol.

[Another knock is heard on the door to the Oval Office]

“Boss”:  Who is it? Come on in! [Harriet enters stage right.]

“Lamb”: Mr. President, I needed to talk with you.

“Boss”: Please, Harriet, call me George or better, call me “Boss.”

“Lamb”: OK George.  We’ve known each other for a long time.  I am so upset at what people are saying about my nomination.  I told you that I didn’t think I was qualified.  I’m a law-yer, not a judge!

“Boss”: Harriet, would you please stop worrying.  Its part of my plan.  I have a plan, you know, Harriet.  I had capital, political capital, but I’m afraid I’ve spent most of that, so I have to have a plan.

“Lamb”: OK, Sir, what is your plan?

“Boss”:  Well “lamb” (err, I mean Harriet), here’s how it goes.  I’ve nominated you for a lifelong appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court.  As long as my plan works, the Democrats will vote to confirm you because you don’t really have a track record, so they don’t really have a reason to vote against you.

“Lamb”: But what about the conservatives?  They are all in an uproar, Sir.

“Boss”: Thank you for calling me “Sir” Harriet.  It sounds so good.

“Lamb”:  So what’s your plan?

“Boss”: Well it goes like this.  I’m having Cheney, Rove and Libby talk to everyone.  We’ll http://www.favewavs.com/wavs/misc/gitrdone.wav  “Git-R-Done!”

“Lamb”: But what if you don’t http://www.favewavs.com/wavs/misc/gitrdone.wav ?

“Boss”: Well Harriet, that’s my plan.  If we http://www.favewavs.com/wavs/misc/gitrdone.wav you get to be a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court and you get to vote your evangelical conscience. 

“Lamb”: But what if they don’t confirm me, or what if it gets “too hot in the kitchen” and we decide to withdraw my nomination?  I’m not sure I’m up to all of this, Sir.

“Boss”: Well, if they vote you down, and “you take a bullet for your Commander in Chief,” I’ll say to all of those people, OK, “you people,” since you didn’t confirm Harriet Miers, my first choice, I hereby nominate Alberto Gonzales.  So either way, I get my way.  And if they turn you down, I’ll nominate you for the federal courts anyway.  What do you think of that Harriet?

“Lamb”: Well Sir, it’s a “plan.”

[Curtain comes down, and time passes.  The end of this play is still to be written.]

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Previously, I have been mistaken in referring to this practice as racial profiling. In fact, it is much more correct to refer to it as terrorist profiling (afterall, saying "Arab profiling" would be wrong). Today, four years after September 11th, we are supposed to be a lot smarter about the profile of a terrorist.

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a contributor to the CTB, has written an article titled "Spare No Resource".

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/006/209wllyv.asp?pg=1

The first line is key to understanding the point of the article.

Terrorist profiling is the most efficient, and effective, method of anti-terror policing.

In this article, he makes the point that NYC and Mayor Bloomberg, when stating that it would "spare no resource" in preventing terrorism, is yet, spending resources unnecessarily by searching (randomly) everyone’s bags. "Granny’s" shopping bag is not the threat. The Middle Eastern person carrying a knapsack is a considerably greater threat.

Gartenstein-Ross highlights these paragraphs:
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/new_daily_stand.html

"…The argument for profiling is simple and compelling: If our last line of defense is searching bags before riders enter the subway, our searches should target the passengers who are most likely to be terrorists. Only through intelligently targeted searches can we have a reasonable chance of disrupting terrorist plots. This means we should try to figure out how terrorists look and act — and that law enforcement should be trained in taking these factors into account.

Because this case is intuitive and hard to refute (why would we treat, say, U.S. senators the same as Mohamed Atta?), the opponents of profiling seemingly turn to autopilot when arguing against it, throwing out every claim that could possibly support their position with little critical filter… [Former FBI agent Mike German, who wrote a San Francisco Chronicle op-ed defending New York's random searches] does this when he argues that completely random bag searches are just as effective as profiling. And his case begins with the creation of a false dichotomy, in which one option is the most awkward kind of profiling done solely on the basis of race, and the other option is random searches.

Thankfully, other choices lie along the spectrum between these two extremes. A truly effective system of terrorist profiling would not look solely at a person’s race in determining whether extra scrutiny is justified. Rather, a range of factors–including gender, age, dress, and behavior–can be used to identify the most likely terrorists. Surely there can be no argument against considering these non-racial factors…

…The bottom line is that one cannot sustain the argument that purely random bag searches are as effective as training police to identify potential terrorists by taking into account the wealth of information we have on how they look and act…We can continue with the present "spare no resource" approach in times of crisis. But we’d spare more resources, and be safer for it, if terrorist profiling were one of the tools in our anti-terror arsenal…"

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I was wrong when I referred to "racial" profiling. Afterall, "racial profiling" is what the cops on the NJ Turnpike did when they pulled a car full of Black students over for a search a few years ago under the premise that "they were more likely to have drugs in the car." That is not what we are talking about, and certainly not what I really meant.

On the otherhand, profiling for "terrorists" makes total sense. It means that not all Muslims will be profiled (there are plenty of white Muslims) and it doesn’t mean that all Middle Easterners will be profiled. But people who "look like terrorists and act like terrorists" should be profiled. I shouldn’t be profiled…but there are others who fit the "profile" of a terrorist that the government has compiled…based on looks, age, behavior and dress for example, that should be profiled.

If you don’t like it, well, I guess that’s too bad.

I advocate "terrorist profiling" and I advocate strict enforcement of our immimgration laws, and in fact a strengthening of those laws, not a weakening. But that’s just my opinion.

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"If only we had acted."  These are words that are the last thing that any one of us wants to hear (ever again) from our governments (local, state and federal).

Today there was an apparent threat against the tunnels in Baltimore.  At first it was being reported as a credible threat (similar to NY’s Subway threat, attached to a specific date and time).  Reacting to this threat, Md. DoT ordered the closure (or at least partial closure) of the Harbor Tunnel on I895 just North of the city of Baltimore. To anyone aware of the area, the Harbor Tunnel is one of the two tunnels that lead to/from Baltimore (Ft McHenry Tunnel being the other on I95 - I usually prefer the Ft. McHenry Tunnel for convenience).

http://www.thewbalchannel.com/health/5116434/detail.html
…Refresh this page often for the latest information.

Clearly, although it is now looking like the tunnel is being reopened to traffic, the authorities in Baltimore and Maryland had no choice but to treat this as a credible threat. Large trucks and vans were searched and traffic diverted.  It was later reported that there was atleast a partial closing of the Ft. McHenry tunnel as well.

Apparently, this threat was first reported through the intelligence community and was then passed to DHS and then finally to the locals in Maryland.  The threat has been under investigation for several days. While the source has provided dubious information in the past and therefore there was some question of the credibility of this threat, what choice do we now have?

CT Blog has been updating this story as it unfolded:
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/baltimores_harb.html

UPDATED
Seems like the authorities are now revealing a possible connection of the threat with the Koko Market (http://tinyurl.com/axd55) and an Egyptian man…http://wjz.com/topstories/local_story_291133250.html

But if we need to be reminded why we must listen to the threats:

1) Last week, although criticized by his political opponents, Mayor Bloomberg and his Police Commissioner, Ray Kelly acted responsibly when they reacted to a threat against the NYC Subway system.

http://moonagewebdream.blogs.com/storms_counter_terrorism/2005/10/thoughts_on_the.html

2) In a recent article in the Washington Times, Curt Weldon is quoted as saying that the attacks of September 11th could have been averted.

http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20051008-101924-8719r.htm
Rep. Curt Weldon, Pennsylvania Republican, correctly asserts the terrorist attack on America on September 11, 2001, could have been averted.

The assertion was based on his efforts as early as 1999 to create a national collaborative or fusion center. It would data-mine vast amounts of information from U.S. intelligence and law enforcement to confront such asymmetrical threats as terrorism, proliferation, illegal arms trafficking, espionage, narcotics and information warfare and cyber-terrorism.

It was a process that produced, among other things, the Able Danger open-source analysis that reportedly revealed hijacker Mohamed Atta as a potential terrorist before the attack…[more]

3) There have been some reports that FBI intercepts went untranslated prior to the attacks of Sept. 11th (lack of Arabic translators at the FBI still being an issue in my mind, but an issue for a separate post).

http://archives.cnn.com/2002/US/05/22/9.11.warnings.facts/

4) And then there was the case of Lyman Farris (a naturalized U.S. citizen from Pakistan, who was stopped in his plot, supposedly supported or at the behest of al Qaeda, to drive a truck onto the Brooklyn Bridge and to take it down with explosives).

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030616-012811-3781r.htm

There have been numerous threats since September 11th that have come to nothing.

http://www.canada.com/news/oddities/story.html?id=983489b7-7fcd-42e7-b63c-c8f1ae1490ab

We have no choice but to "Listen to Terrorist Warnings."
http://moonagewebdream.blogs.com/storms_counter_terrorism/2005/10/listening_to_te.html

The one time we don’t listen, it will be the wrong decision.

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The referendum has been conducted today (10/15/05).  Despite the terrorists and their terror, up to 2/3 of Iraqis have voted in the election…this alone is major!

Iraqi voters wait for results
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2005-10-15-iraq-referendum_x.htm
…Results of the plebiscite will be known Tuesday, he said.

Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, from the majority Shiite sect, hailed the Sunni participation.

"In Fallujah and Samarra, I have seen pictures of citizens who have voted and are proud," Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said. "There were no such pictures from these towns in the last election. Whether they vote yes or no is not the point. The victory for Iraq is that they are voting…"

---

THAT is so true, and so true. Yes, I know that I repeated myself. So, I ask this question to all (with special attention to a "those" of "you"). Does it matter to you if the referendum passes the constitution, or is the fact that a free election was successfully held enough to prove that democracy in Iraq has started to take hold?

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Sunnis turn out to reject Iraq referendum
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Iraq_The_Sunnis.html
By voting against the constitution, Ammar Mustafa wanted to do more than reject a document he thinks will divide Iraq. The young Sunni Arab wanted to show the Americans that he didn’t appreciate what he saw as U.S. meddling in his country.

"This is a contribution to democracy my way, not the American way," he said.

He and other Sunni Arabs voters turned out in surprising numbers Saturday, many of them heeding calls of their clerics to reject the charter. If two-thirds of voters in three Sunni provinces reject the constitution, it will be defeated, even if it wins a majority nationwide.

But even if minority Sunnis fail to block the charter’s ratification, a strong "no" vote within the community - which dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein - raises questions about whether the charter will fulfill Washington’s goal of luring fighters away from the Sunni-led insurgency…[more]  Update: It looks like the referendum passed and that whatever the Sunni objections , they didn’t have enough votes to stop the passage of the constitution.

---

It’ll be interesting to me (atleast) to see how much "we all" believe in democracy. Is it an expresion of democracy even if the results of a high turnout election aren’t what "we" wanted?  I think that any result is a good result…and now it appears that the result is the passage by a high turnout of the voters.

See also: http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/comment_huge_de.html

Iraq Sphere: Related Content

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This is so TOTALLY wrong!

An "insider" sent emails to "rich folk" in New York City days in advance of the actual terror alert to warn them to stay away from the New York City subway system!

Terror tip for rich E-mails warned bigs of city attack
The city’s rich and well-connected were tipped off to last week’s subway terror threat days before average New Yorkers, the Daily News has learned.

At least two E-mails revealing the purported plot were sent to a select crowd of business and arts executives early last week by New Yorkers who claimed to have close connections to Homeland Security and other federal officials, authorities said.

The NYPD confirmed that it learned of the E-mails on Oct. 3 - three days before Mayor Bloomberg, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly and the FBI went public with the threat…[More]

Feds to probe e-mails in N.Y. terror alert E-mail warnings reportedly sent to city’s wealthy before threat publicized
Federal authorities on Thursday opened a criminal investigation into who wrote e-mails that warned private citizens of a possible terror threat to New York City subways days in advance of a city government decision to issue a public alert last week… …not clear whether the e-mails were written by government employees or by people who overheard discussion of the potential threat…[More]

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If, and I mean this is a big "IF," it is determined that a government official or employee sent these emails, that person, IMO, should be summarily dismissed (fired) and if possible, have their pensions forfeited…of course, and spend some time in jail as well.

This country is supposed to be a democracy…of, for and by the people. Our society is supposed to be transparent to social class. And yet, it seems, some people were given inside information to the exclusion of "Joe and Josephine Everyperson."

Its atrocious that this happened, its an abuse of power or position…and its simply downright wrong!

And by the way, this whole thing checks out on Snopes.

Opinions Sphere: Related Content

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It was announced today that the CIA will take the lead role in a new National Clandestine Service (NCS) that will oversee the international HUMINT (human intelligence) activities of the Agency, the FBI and the Pentagon.  This is a significant event in my opinion as it centralizes intelligence operations within the CIA and Porter Goss.

CIA acquires new US clandestine leadership role
The CIA will lead a new clandestine service designed to coordinate all traditional U.S. spying activities overseas, including those of the FBI and Pentagon, top intelligence officials said on Thursday.

As part of an ambitious strategy to rebuild U.S. human intelligence after debilitating lapses over Iraq and the September 11, 2001, attacks, the new National Clandestine Service, or NCS, will operate out of the spy agency under a director reporting to CIA Director Porter Goss.

The new service will act as the national authority for the integration and coordination of human intelligence operations, which involve spying by people rather than satellites and other sophisticated technology…

CIA Manager to Head Clandestine Service

A top CIA manager who remains undercover will soon oversee the traditional human spying activities for the entire intelligence community, a new position created in the post-Sept. 11 intelligence reforms.

Publicly, he is referred to simply as "Jose," said U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan’s full details had yet to be released.

Jose’s posting as head of the new National Clandestine Service ends weeks of debate over whether the CIA would retain its role as the primary agency responsible for traditional human spywork, as an increasing number of U.S. national security agencies take on this type of work.

He’ll now broadly coordinate operations for the FBI, Defense Department and other agencies involved in human intelligence, or the information gathered by people, rather than by technical means.<>

Jose now serves as the director of the CIA’s clandestine service, which handles the agency’s human intelligence gathering…

In my opinion, this is an essential and positive step in addressing the problems that led to our inability to decipher the warnings that led up to September 11th.  It is also a step that may have some of the "conspiracy theory junkies" on edge, IMO, that’s too bad.  This seems like the first major step following the appointment of Negroponte as the National Intelligence Director.

Likely to be more on this subject later.

Federal Policy Sphere: Related Content

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Yesterday, October 12th, was the 5th anniversary of the attempt to sink the U.S.S. Cole, As noted by Mr. Cochran at the CT Blog, it was the last al Qaeda warning before Sept. 11th.

http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/remember_the_us.html

We had a series of warnings that go back over 30 years.  I’m sure that I’ve missed a few but:

• In 1972 when the Munich Olympics massacre happened, the world was shocked and outraged, but no one knew then what we know now.

• In October 1985 when terrorists threw Leon Klinghoffer overboard from the Achilles Lauro, we were shocked and outraged, but no one knew then what we now know.

• When al Qaeda attempted to destroy the World Trade Center the first time in 1993, we weren’t listening…and we went on.

• In November 1995, a car bomb exploded in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, killing five Americans, we weren’t listening…and we went on.

• On June 25, 1996, a terrorist truck bomb exploded outside the northern perimeter of Khobar Towers, killing 19 soldiers and wounding 500. We weren’t listening…and we went on.

• When the embassies in Africa in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on August 7, 1998, we weren’t listening…and we went on.

• When the U.S.S. Cole was attacked in 2000, we weren’t listening…and we went on.

• When John Ashcroft cut the FBI’s anti-terrorism budget request  (Sept. 10, 2001), we hadn’t heard it yet…and we went on…for one more day.

• And then, on September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center crumbled, the Pentagon burned, Flight 93 crash landed, nearly 3000 people died…we listened, and finally, we realized that we had been under attack…not just for 8 years, but likely for many years.

A week ago there was the now dismissed terrorist alert in the NY City subway system.  Mayor Bloomberg and Commissioner Kelly were listening despite conflicting intelligence analysis.  Despite the fact that the alert has now been called a "hoax," Bloomberg and Kelly listened, because they knew that when we didn’t listen or see the signs, people died.  Its better to overreact and respond, then to not respond and regret later.

I do wonder though if we are really listening even now.  September 11, 2001, Bali, London and Madrid and Bali…all acts of Islamic terorrism…Listening now?

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This is stuff I’ve written a while ago (dates included) but relates to a post appearing on CT Blog today (10/10/05).  Don’t be surprised.  This is another long one.

Afghanistan’s Progress and Unfinished Business Provide Gauges for Iraq’s Future
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/afghanistans_pr.html

Included:
Afghani political and private sector leaders are touring the U.S. to make the case that the country has turned the corner and welcomes foreign investment.

Peter Baker, one of two Washington Post reporters who spent months in Afghanistan after we liberated the country.  He recently visited there to determine its progress and wrote of his impressions in yesterday’s edition.

Poppy harvesting, corruption, drug trafficking persist.

While CT Blog expresses a hopeful outlook on Afghanistan, I am still cautiously hesitant about its future.

September 21, 2005:
In Afghanistan, despite a resurgence of Taliban (I thought they were gone) activities, Karzai wants the U.S. to scale down its military presence and change its tactics.  Apparently worrying about the door to door searches still being undertaken to find "terrorists among them."

Karzai calls for change in military strategy
Afghan leader says major foreign operations aren’t needed anymore
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/world/3362573
President Hamid Karzai on Tuesday challenged the need for major foreign military operations in Afghanistan, saying airstrikes are no longer effective and that U.S.-led coalition forces should focus on rooting out terror bases and support networks.

His call for a new approach to tackling militants came despite the fiercest fighting in Afghanistan since U.S.-led forces invaded in late 2001, with more than 1,200 people killed in the six months leading up to Sunday’s historic legislative elections.

Karzai demanded an immediate end to foreign troops searching people’s homes without his government’s authorization. He also said foreign governments should "concentrate on where terrorists are trained, on their bases, on the supply to them, on the money coming to them" � a veiled reference to support that militants allegedly get from neighboring Pakistan…

[Pakistan?  Taliban and terrorists in Pakistan?  Can it be???]

[I heard recently that the price of gasoline in Afghanistan is something north of $20/gallon and that one of the major terrorist/criminal activities was the hijacking of fuel trucks - so much so that the contractors had stopped transporting gasoline in the traditional, and very easily identified fuel tanker trucks.]

And "way" back on July 9, 2005 (beware, this is long):
Despite all of the "happy talk" about Afghanistan, I’d suggest that this GAO report will offer insight into the real issues, rather than the "I want to believe" stuff that abounds regarding Afghanistan.

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05575.pdf (only 39 pages until the "methodology pages, minus title pages, a letter to Hyde and a few blank pages…not too heavy reading IMO)

Afghanistan Makes Progress Establishing Army and Police but Other Efforts Have Fallen Behind During 2004, the Defense Department significantly accelerated Afghan combat troop training, but efforts to fully equip the troops have fallen behind, and efforts to establish sustaining institutions, such as a logistics command, have not kept pace, and plans for completing these institutions are not clear, according to a June Government Accountability Office report to the House of Representatives Committee on International Relations. GAO recommends that the Secretaries of Defense and State develop more detailed plans to complete and sustain the Afghan army and police forces and ensure that progress in the other security pillars is congruous with the army and police programs.

"…Afghanistan’s economic plight is partially the result of its long history of war and civil strife. Afghanistan’s ethnically mixed population is due to its location on historical invasion and trade routes. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and withdrew only after waging a prolonged and destructive war against Afghan resistance groups. Following a protracted civil war, most of Afghanistan fell under the control of the fundamentalist Taliban group by 1998. Under the Taliban, Afghanistan became a haven for terrorists, and, as a result, the United States and a coalition of its allies invaded Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Afghanistan’s security institutions, including its national army, police, and judiciary, collapsed or were severely damaged prior to the U.S. occupation. During the Taliban rule the army disintegrated and was superseded by various ethnic and regional militias…"

"…2001. Since ousting the Taliban regime from Afghanistan in 2001, the United States has spent almost $3 billion to help reconstruct this poor and ethnically divided country.1 However, pervasive internal security threats—including terrorists, ethnic and regional militias commanded by powerful warlords, and a large trade in illegal narcotics—continue to undermine efforts to rebuild Afghanistan’s shattered economy, government, and infrastructure. The United States and allied nations maintain more than 28,000 combat and support troops in Afghanistan to counter these threats…"

"…The United States has made important progress in training and deploying Afghan army combat troops but has not fully addressed limitations that impede its progress in establishing a self-sustaining Afghan army…"

"…The United States has made important progress in training and deploying Afghan army combat troops but has not fully addressed limitations that impede its progress in establishing a self-sustaining Afghan army. Defense has established programs for recruiting and training battalions of ethnically mixed combat troops, including a field-based mentoring program…"

"…Afghanistan continues to face significant internal threats. Widespread trade in opium and heroin provides drug producers and traffickers with the resources and motivation to resist efforts to curb the illicit narcotics industry. Taliban fighters and terrorist groups remain active in parts of the country, and attacks on civilian reconstruction workers have prompted some international assistance groups to leave the country. Regional warlords maintain thousands of militia fighters who could be used to challenge the authority of Afghanistan’s new central government…"

"…The United States has provided approximately $4.1 billion during fiscal years 2002 through 2005 to support the Afghan army and police force. In the President’s budget request for fiscal year 2006, the administration has requested an additional $58.5 million for the Afghan police program but, according to Defense officials, no additional funds for the Afghan army…"

U.S. Training of Afghan Combat Troops Has Outpaced Efforts to Equip and Sustain Them (Page 15)

Afghan Army Is Experiencing Equipment Shortages (Page 18)
"…According to U.S. Defense and Afghan army personnel, Afghan army units are experiencing equipment shortages. U.S. embedded trainers and other defense personnel informed us that Afghan soldiers have had to cope with shortages of useable uniforms, boots, communications gear, infantry weapons, ammunition, and vehicles…"

Sustaining Institutions Are Lagging and Plans for Their Completion Are Not Clear (Page 21)

State and Germany Do Not Have an Overall Plan for Reconstituting the Afghan National Police (Page 30)
"…In 2003, Germany developed a strategy paper that assessed the condition of the police and proposed ways to reconstituting the police sector. However, this strategy was not widely circulated and was not adopted by other donors, including the United States; State/INL officials told us that they could not provide us a copy of the German strategy because they did not possess a copy themselves. According to cognizant German officials, Germany has viewed its role as one of advising and consulting with other donors and the Afghan government rather than as the major implementer or funding source for the police sector. State has not developed a plan for addressing the overall requirement of equipping and fielding a fully functioning police force by a stated end date.

Budget estimates produced (at our request) by DynCorp provide a partial listing of essential elements for building the police—personnel, equipment, facilities and communication equipment—through 2006 that totals more than $580 million…"

Long-Term Costs Unclear but Likely to Be Substantial (Page 31)

Slow Progress in Addressing Other Pillars Could Undermine Afghan Security (Page 33)

Illicit Narcotics Industry Threatens Government Authority (page 34)
"The production and trafficking of illicit narcotics poses a serious challenge to the Afghan government’s authority. According to the United Nations, Afghanistan produces almost 90 percent of the world’s illicit opium, generating revenues equivalent to about 60 percent of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product for 2003. According to State, narcotics revenues breed corruption at virtually all levels of the Afghan government while providing resources to Taliban remnants, drug lords, and other terrorist groups. Solving the narcotics problem in Afghanistan is widely seen as critical to achieving security in Afghanistan…"

Militias Have Not Been Fully Reintegrated (Page 35)

Conclusions
"…Without strong and self-sustaining Afghan army and police forces, international terrorists could again create a haven in Afghanistan and jeopardize donor efforts to develop the country. However, Afghanistan remains dependent on other nations for support—international assistance provided over 90 percent of Afghanistan’s $4.75 billion budget for 2005. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Afghan government revenues will average less than $400 million per year through 2008—less than half its projected expenditures just for government salaries and operations…"

Also:  Afghanistan, Are We Losing the Peace?
From the Council on Foreign Relations:
http:///www.cfr.org/pdf/Afghanistan_TF.pdf

FOREWORD
On midday, September 10, 2001, Americans thought little about Afghanistan. Twentyfour hours later, a band of al-Qaeda terrorists living in that impoverished country had triggered the war on terrorism through their savage attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and Afghanistan suddenly became the focus of attention for U.S. policymakers. Thanks to the success of Operation Enduring Freedom, Afghanistan’s brutal Taliban rulers were swiftly defeated and their al-Qaeda terrorist guests dislodged.

The interim and then transitional government of President Hamid Karzai assumed office to offer Afghanistan a fresh opportunity for peace, development, and security after more than two decades of war and despair. Nineteen months later, Afghanistan is once again threatened with disorder and insecurity. The political and economic reconstruction process is in danger of stalling. The attention of U.S. policymakers has shifted elsewhere. Yet the challenge of Afghanistan remains and forms the core of this report by the joint Council on Foreign Relations–Asia Society Independent Task Force on India and South Asia.

Founded in the summer of 2001 by a merger of the Council’s earlier Task Force on South Asia and the Asia Society’s Roundtable on India, the Task Force’s original purpose was to examine ways to deepen and widen U.S. relations with India. But the tragic events of September 11, 2001, transformed the South Asian security context and led the Task Force to explore U.S. policy with the nations of the region in a far broader framework.

The Task Force chairmen, Ambassador Frank Wisner, Ambassador Nicholas Platt, and Dr. Marshall M. Bouton, brought a wealth of firsthand government and private sector experience in the region to their work. Ambassador Dennis Kux and Dr. Mahnaz Ispahani served as excellent executive directors. With more than 60 members, the Task Force is one of the largest and most varied that the Council has ever sponsored. Over the past two years, the group held more than two dozen meetings, which probed in-depth a wide range of political, economic, security, and social issues relating to South Asia.

Given the time-sensitive nature of the policy recommendations on Afghanistan, the Task Force has decided to release these findings now. This report is part of the Task Force’s larger work on U.S. policy toward South Asia. The Task Force concludes that to achieve the U.S. goal of a stable Afghan state that does not serve as a haven for terrorists, the United States should be providing greater support to the transitional government of President Hamid Karzai. More vigorous military, diplomatic, and economic measures are needed to bolster the central government’s hand and to prevent further deterioration in the security situation and the dimming of economic reconstruction prospects. Unless the present disturbing trends are arrested, the successes of Operation Enduring Freedom will be in jeopardy. Afghanistan could again slide back into near anarchy and the United States could suffer a serious defeat in the war on terrorism.

This is a compelling report about what the United States should be doing next in Afghanistan. The Task Force warns that the world thinks of Afghanistan as America’s war. If the peace is lost there because of inadequate support for the government of Hamid Karzai, America’s credibility around the globe will suffer a grave blow. Washington needs to take corrective action before it is too late.

Iraq, Afghan wars reportedly strain U.S. fighting ability
http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/05/03/myers.report/

Novemeber 2, 2004:
"An Issue Of Border Loyalty"
Issue of border loyality
[This article describes an attack that occurred on Sept. 1 along the Pakistani/Afghan border, and details, among other things, the fact that the mountain tribes, especially the Pashtun, are still aiding and abetting the Taliban. In fact, the article indicates that in some circles within the Pakistani military and intelligence forces, the Taliban are being harbored and protected, not only to mount attacks like the one described in the article, but also to wait for the American forces to leave Afghanistan so they can re-establish their foothold there, and re-take the government.]

BY JAMES RUPERT
STAFF CORRESPONDENT
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny-wobord31,0,2275849,print.story?coll=ny-world-big-pix
Pakistani border forces posted nearby did nothing to halt the attack…when the invaders fled back across the border, Pakistani troops helped them carry and treat their wounded…

…some Pakistani officials and security forces continue to support the Islamic militant Taliban movement, notably in attacks into Afghanistan…Pakistani border forces have helped truck Taliban militants to the frontier…

…Pakistan has clamped down on border infiltration…it has not arrested Taliban leaders…

…the Taliban movement is more local — born in Pakistan among the Pashtun tribes that dominate the Pakistani and Afghan border regions. It was bred…by Pakistan’s military intelligence agency as a way to install a pro-Pakistani government in Afghanistan.

Since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan forced the Taliban from power here in 2001, many of the movement’s prominent leaders have been living as refugees in Pakistan…

Reasons to help Taliban
…there has been no broad Pakistani crackdown on the Taliban, and Asian and Western scholars say U.S. forces in Afghanistan will never fully defeat the Islamic militants as long as Pakistan offers them sanctuary.

…Pakistan has "been supplied with information about the exact location of various major Taliban leaders…But they do not move against the Taliban. … Instead, whenever there is pressure on about the Taliban, they arrest more al-Qaida people…

…Cooperation with the Taliban by Pakistani border forces in this area "arise from local dynamics and do not reflect a more permissive policy by the Musharraf government….The border forces are tribal conscripts whose obedience can be diluted by local public opinion…”

Money from both sides
On both sides, the war is fueled by money. The Taliban "are paying Pakistani tribesmen to join them in attacks on us"…the men who fought in the Sept. 1 attack here were paid about $85 for the night’s work.

…The U.S. strategy for sealing this border follows tradition. Historically, governments that have tried to rule the Pashtuns in their rugged homeland — Pakistan, Afghanistan and, in centuries past, the British Empire — have found it easier to hire local tribes to keep order…

…"a lot of people along the border are playing both sides," taking aid from the Americans and payments from the Taliban…the Taliban have been recruiting nomads, called Kuchis, to carry rockets from Pakistan into Afghanistan and fire them at U.S. forces and their allies.

[In this post, basically the premise is that 1) the line of demarcation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is arbitrary and was imposed by Britain; 2) the Warlords recognize no borders; 3) the Pashtun tribe gave birth to the Taliban and have every reason to protect bin Laden...]

October 3, 2004:
DRUG TRADE ON HIGH
Citing flaws in U.S.-led recovery, more Afghans in war-torn nation turn to the lucrative opium trade
http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/world/ny-woafgh033993396oct03,0,4790006.story?coll=ny-worldnews-print
Bony and toothless at the age, he says, of 99, Marjan Mama plans to vote Saturday. God willing, he says, Afghanistan’s first free election will bring a strong government to disarm the country’s warlords, pave the road to his village and repair the local irrigation canals…

… "If we could take care of our families by growing rice and corn and wheat, as we did before, we would not grow poppies," Marjan said…

…residents and aid workers say, the U.S.-led recovery effort has failed to provide security or to pave even the most badly needed road. And for most people, it offers no legal way to make a living…

…Afghanistan produced 75 percent of the world’s opium last year and poppy-growing has spread to as many as 40 percent of its villages…

…Juma Gul, 30, Marjan’s youngest son. He pointed to a brownish clod of opium the size of a hockey puck. "We hope to sell this for 4,000 [Pakistani] rupees," about $65, he said. The family’s other major crop - rice - sells for 8.5 cents a pound. Most of the family income is provided by opium sales…

…through last year, Afghanistan got only $67 per person in annual aid - a quarter of what was given to Bosnia or East Timor in their first years of recovery from recent wars…

… Other smuggling abounds. On the dirt road through Khakhi, trucks piled high with timber from Afghanistan’s dwindling forests and scrap metal from its battlefields rumbled recently toward an illegal border crossing into Pakistan.

And which warlords, exactly, control these illegal industries? "My dear, if I told you any names, it would be the preparation for my dying," said the provincial government official. Like the others interviewed on the subject, he declined to have his name published in a newspaper…

Despite opinions to the contrary, I think that it remains to be seen whether Karzai’s government will survive. To date, I don’t think there has been a challenge, but yet, as noted elsewhere, the opium crops are bounding…economically, the peasants have little or no alternative crops to support their families. And there is no question (at least in my mind - and in my reading) that the Taliban is reconstituting in the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Time will tell. I’m just not quite ready to call it a victory, because realistically, the election of Karzai was only the first step (and a good one) toward establishing a stable democratic government in Afghanistan. Like it or not, that’s a more realistic view point than to declare unconditional victory at this point.

Basically, I don’t trust the warlords, and I certainly do not trust the Pashtun tribe.

International Issues Sphere: Related Content

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The blogsphere has been quite crowded (littered?) recently (today is 10/10/05) with speculation and conjecture about the bombing (in which Joel Hinrichs committed suicide) outside of the stadium in Norman Oklahoma.  Today, there was another incident in Georgia on the campus of Georgia Tech University…as well as  an explosive device being found near UCLA last Friday.  Add to these three university incidents, the NYC terrorism alert that New Yorkers lived with this past weekend.  It would seem that there’s lots of "terrorism afoot."

I made myself pretty clear in my last post, "Thoughts on the NYC Subway Threat" http://moonagewebdream.blogs.com/storms_counter_terrorism/2005/10/thoughts_on_the.html

So, when is "terrorism" not "terrorism?"  Of course, in this context, the definition of "terrorism" that I am using is Islamic terrorism, and not an act of domestic terrorism.  But isn’t an act of domestic terrorism, terrorism nonetheless?

Loads of circumstantial evidence is and has been cited by almost every blog on the WWW regarding the Hinrich’s suicide.  While some remain willing to reserve judgement, like the experts at CT Blog, there are many others who choose to ramble on and on, citing less than credible sources such as the Northeast Intelligence Network.

So, about Hinrichs:

Security Tapes Lack OU ExplosionClues
http://www.kotv.com/main/home/stories.asp?whichpage=1&id=91508

A completed review of University of Oklahoma stadium surveillance tapes by the FBI did not spot Joel Henry Hinrichs III trying to get inside…

The following are excerpts from Daveed Gartenstien-Ross’ post on this subject:
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/suicide_bomber_.html

• There’s speculation that Hinrichs may have been a suicide bomber.
• Terrorism experts have had bad experiences trying to make sense of past events in Oklahoma — and it’s good that the media didn’t make a spectacle of this incident before the facts became known. However, information has come to light in the past couple of days that makes this case worthy of more sustained attention.
• Reports that Hinrichs attended the same mosque frequented by Moussaoui (note: this is where I clearly had misinterpreted the post made by Moon when I read it last night)
• Claims that Hinrichs attempted to buy ammonium nitrate, although the store did not sell the product due to fed regs
• Local media reports that the bomb blown by Hinrichs contained TATP (very sensitve and easy to make - combine drain cleaner and bleach)
• Local media reports that Hinrich tried to enter the stadium but didn’t
• FBI released a statement Tuesday announcing "that there is no current threat posed by additional explosive materials, that there is no known threat from anyone else related to the incident and that there is no known link between Hinrichs and any terrorist or extremist organization or activities."
• 3-4 days later, no definitive conclusion; investigation on-going;
• OU and family have played down any possible terrorism link. Hinrichs’s father said that Hinrichs was skeptical of ideology in general, and that "Joe would have become a Muslim fanatic when pigs fly."
• …officials have not yet determined whether Hinrichs committed suicide…"Dr. Alan Swann, psychiatrist at the University of Texas Medical School in Houston, said it is apparent that Hinrichs was a depressed, isolated and angry individual.

However, Swann said that if it was an intentional suicide, he believes Hinrichs was not trying to hurt other people. “It really sounds like if this guy wanted to take more people with him, he could have done so and he didn’t,” said Swann, who is also a regional representative for the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention…

* Swan: "…unusual method of committing suicide…"

Gartenstein-Ross’s Conclusion
Perhaps Hinrichs’s attendance of the mosque that Moussaoui attended and his attempt to purchase ammonium nitrate have reasonable explanations unrelated to terrorism. (Or perhaps the sources are wrong about this information; one hesitation I have about drawing conclusions in this case is that many of the reported facts are based on fairly sketchy sourcing.) However, there’s enough to this story that it deserves more attention. It would be significant if Hinrichs had been motivated by radical Islam.

Another update post from Daveed Gartenstien-Ross:

http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/video_updates_f.html#more

And yet another update post from Daveed Gartenstien-Ross discussing what we know and what we don’t know:

http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/10/oklahoma_suicid.html

I’m going to go out on a limb here (and will admit to being wrong and post a retraction if I am wrong, unlike other posters)…but from the beginning, I have believed that that even the implication that this explosion in Norman Oklahoma was an act of terrorism, let alone an act of Islamic terrorism is nothing short of irresponsible and the Internet equivalent of yellow journalism.

Except for the fact that a troubled student stapped one on and killed himself, this is a non-story being sensationalized on the Internet, for what reason, I do not know or understand.  On this blog, we’re going to opt to agree with people like Daveed Gartenstien-Ross, and not follow the crowds who form their opinions based on many of the anonymous blogs…or even "named" blogs that look to sensationalize events like this one, or look for conspiracies in every corner.

Having said that, if you could track back to my previous posts, you would find information that I have maintained that if al Qaeda wanted to make a real impact on the population of the U.S., they would attack in Middle America. I didn’t however, mean a football game. I meant the Great Lakes, or a chemical plant or a nuclear plant in the Midwest.

So, now, what about the Georgia Tech act of "terrorism?"

The language is statutory…in this context, "terrorism" does not necessarily mean Islamic terrorism in my opinion.  The "devices" at Georgia Tech, while the event is being labeled by locals as a "terrorist" act involved some sort of liquid in bottles. This is not to minimize the act at all.  However, frankly, my own perception is that if this was an act of Islamic terrorism, the janitor would not be alive.

The devices were rigged to explode when touched.  The devices are being described as "not very sophisticated."

http://www.accessnorthga.com/news/ap_newfullstory.asp?ID=66143
http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=70306
…One of the devices exploded, injuring the custodian who found them inside a plastic bag. Two others were detonated by a bomb squad…

Are the two incidents related? Probably only in that some idiot at Georgia Tech (maybe even an engineering or chemistry student) decided to grab some "glory and publicity" by mimicking the OSU explosion.

And then there was UCLA (on Friday afternoon)…http://www.dailybruin.ucla.edu/news/articles.asp?id=34408
A calm and quiet Westwood was briefly disrupted Friday afternoon when the Los Angeles Police Department bomb squad inspected and detonated an explosive device found within the Midvale Plaza apartment complex on the 500 block of Midvale Avenue.

After responding to a call made at 11:13 a.m., the bomb squad arrived at 527 Midvale Ave. to find "an improvised explosive device" in the building’s open-air courtyard, said Grace Brady, a spokeswoman for the LAPD…

And finally, we have the NYC Subway Terror alert.  We know that Mayor Mike Bloomberg acted (and I believe appropriately so) and we know that Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, perhaps one of the tops in that job anywhere in the United States, believed that the increased surveillance etc. was all justified.  But the alert has now been called off.

New York ends subway alert
http://tinyurl.com/9xmbk (from Reuters)
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg called off a high alert for the city’s subway system on Monday after the attack date cited in a federal warning passed without incident.

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security had told New York officials of a possible threat to New York’s underground mass transit system on or about October 9, based on an uncorroborated claim made to Iraqi authorities.

U.S. intelligence considered the threat to be of doubtful credibility but Bloomberg said it was serious enough to warn the public.

"Since the period of the threat now seems to be passing, I think over the immediate future we’ll slowly be winding down the enhanced security," Bloomberg told a news conference.

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Bloomberg acted responsibly in my opinion.  He had no choice.

Those "citizen journalists" who have questioned from the outset the motives of the "mainstream media" in the Hinrichs case, those who claimed that the FBI was withholding information from the public in an on-going investigation, IMO, acted irresponsibly.  And now, at Georgia Tech…I’m sure that the blogsphere will be littered with "news" suggesting that this was another act of terrorism…without ever making the distinction between Islamic terrorism and an act perpetrated by one American on other Americans.

September 11th (some possible warnings ignored); Bali, Madrid, London and Bali to name a few…truth be told, I would rather have an over reaction than the wrong response.

As it turns out, Mayor Bloomberg may have over reacted…maybe he didn’t…we will never know. If and when "we" choose not to respond to a threat, even of questionable credibility, and "we" guess wrong, people will die.

Its up to the "authorities" and not "we the people" to decide how and when our governments will react and respond to threats. Generally, the credibility of a threat doesn’t become apparent until after the fact. This may be the case with the NYC Subway threat.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ao2qgQmYt8IE&refer=top_world_news
http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/newyork/nyc-nysecu104463703oct10,0,5616724.story?coll=nyc-nynews-print
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/354334p-302059c.html

If Mayor Mike had not responded, despite the opinions of the DHS vs FBI, and there had been an "event" what would you and anyone else have actually written? There would have been "heck" to pay.

Under react to a threat, people could die. Over react to a threat, some people will attribute the reaction to political motives (Bloomberg will very likely win no matter what anyway). Our lesson was learned prior to and afer Sept. 11th. No reaction could lead to hundreds or thousands dying. Reacting(or overreacting) could save lives.

You choose. I know how I will respond. Err on the side of caution…not political correctness.

All just my opinion.

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